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Topics - Libertex

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Advertise Your Stuff / Forex and Crypto news from Libertex
« on: November 09, 2023, 12:03:58 PM »
Fed decision helps to buoy US stocks as positive data abounds

Ever since the post-pandemic boom in the US stock market came to an abrupt end in late 2021, it's been an arduous slog for many companies to try and regain some of the ground lost during the slow grind lower of 2022. The start of this new year seemed to offer an olive branch to the battered stock market as major indices gained over 10% in January 2023 alone. However, by the end of July, the wheels had already begun to come off the recovery.

Since then, the country's two biggest indices — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 — have both lost close to 10%, dropping from $4,576 and $15,826 to $4,193 and $14,409, respectively, in the space of just three months. But movements this week would seem to suggest there could be light at the end of the tunnel for tortured stock market investors.

The release of the latest Consumer Confidence numbers saw the S&P 500 rise 0.7% on 31 October, while the Nasdaq managed to move up 0.5%. These gains were then built upon further the next day as the Fed's decision to hold rates steady saw respective jumps of 1.1% and 1.6% for these major indices. The gains might not look like much on the face of it, but they're a sign that equity prices are responding positively to key economic data despite the ongoing (and worsening) geopolitical instability. As the world begins to interpret the Fed's latest decision and post-meeting comments, traders and investors everywhere are wondering what the implications for the stock market will be up to the end of this year and beyond.

Positive data releases surprise market

With the increasing geopolitical instability that has now spread to the Middle East, persistent inflation, and higher costs of borrowing, many would expect key economic indicators to be suffering. However, in the US, at least, the muted impact of these multiple factors has left analysts scratching their heads. While the recent Consumer Confidence figures released this week by the Conference Board were indeed down from a month ago, the decline to 102.6 from 103 in September was much less than the full three-point decline predicted by a Reuters poll of economists.

Meanwhile, the US job market appears completely unfazed by the pervasive uncertainty as it continues to defy all the odds. After adding 336,000 jobs in September, unemployment remains steady at a very healthy 3.8%. The US Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed layoffs dropping to a nine-month low, while job openings — a key yardstick of labour demand — were up 56,000 to 9.553 million on the last day of September. Overall, the survey reported that there were 1.5 open jobs for every unemployed person in the US, which is a stark contrast to the pre-pandemic average of 1.2.

While it's not entirely clear why the labour market is performing so well at present, there's no doubt that this is a positive factor for equities that could lead to sustained growth in the near-to-medium term.

Fed feeds confidence in risk assets

In a move welcomed by investors, the US Federal Reserve decided to hold rates steady for a second consecutive month at its meeting on 1 November, similarly opting to maintain the federal funds target rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. This has been interpreted by many to mean that the US regulator is finally finished with its rate hike cycle, which is why the stock market responded so favourably to the news.

However, as is always the case with these FOMC meetings, it's the closing press commentary where we can find some of the biggest pearls of wisdom. In his post-meeting comments, for instance, Powell upgraded his assessment of the economy, saying that "economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter" compared to the "solid pace" he referred to back in September.

Ironically, it appears that the Fed policymakers think that it is precisely the strong labour market and higher-than-expected GDP growth that is keeping inflation high, with Powell stating that "we will need to see some slower growth and some softening in the labour market to fully restore price stability". Despite the latest hold on interest rates, policymakers don't seem worried about making further rate hikes if needed, even if they elect to keep rates steady for a third time in December. This all but amounts to a tacit commitment by the central bank to a more dovish policy, which is good news for stock market investors. Once the market accepts that the rate-raising cycle is truly over, money will begin to flow freely back into risk assets.

Trade the stock market with Libertex

With multi-decade experience bringing the financial markets to ordinary retail traders and investors, Libertex (https://libertex.com/) has become a name synonymous with reliability in the contracts for difference (CFDs) trading space. Libertex provides CFDs in a wide range of asset classes, from commodities, options and crypto to stocks, indices and ETFs. In addition to exotic indices from Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, Libertex has every one of the US's Big Three indices —  the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, — as well as tonnes of individual company stocks from all around the world. Offering both long and short positions with optional leverage, Libertex's CFD trading model allows you to potentially benefit from price changes in a given instrument without physically owning the underlying asset.

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As any cryptocurrency investor or trader will tell you, it's been somewhat of a rollercoaster ride for Bitcoin and other digital currencies over the past couple of years. After a prolific rise, the bubble burst in late 2021. From a high of $64,400, Bitcoin crashed hard to a lowly $15,760 by November 2022. After the latest in a series of huge boom-bust cycles, it was understandable that many were wary to call a new bull market in digital assets, but since Bitcoin reached gains of over 100% in less than 12 months this Monday (23/10), sceptics everywhere finally began to believe that the crypto thaw was underway. Then, in the space of just a day, the original cryptocurrency shot up a full 10%, enough to melt the heart of even the biggest naysayer.

And although prices have corrected slightly since then, this week has truly been a watershed moment. Typically amongst some of the most conservative crypto investors, institutions recorded a fourth consecutive week of net inflows, with the latest figures putting their total weekly cash invested at $66 million. As usual, the factors behind the decisive market movement are varied and numerous, but chief amongst them right now has to be the imminent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission and coming shifts in the regulatory framework at large. As we head into Q4, crypto traders and investors are understandably keen to see where the market is headed. In this piece, we'll look at these two factors and try to draw conclusions for the rest of the year and beyond.

X marks the spot

After much discussion and delay, it appears that the long-awaited arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs will soon be upon us. Indeed, it transpired this week that Blackrock had listed its prospective product on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation database under the ticker $IBTC. But Blackrock is by far from the only horse in the race, with similar applications under review from Ark Invest, Invesco, and crypto fund trailblazer Grayscale, whose trust model has its downsides that full security status would mitigate.

After kicking the can down the road as long as is legally possible, the end of the SEC's 240-day review period is fast approaching. The most likely scenario, according to Volatility Shares Chief Investment Officer Stuart Barton, is that multiple products will be approved all at the same time so as to avoid giving one provider any undue advantage over its competitors. And while nothing is yet set in stone, the landmark overturning of the SEC's original ruling to deny Grayscale its spot ETF by a three-judge panel for the DC Court of Appeals in August has been taken by many market participants as a sign of a key sea change.

This dynamic, coupled with the institutional investment surge already noted, looks as if Bitcoin could be headed for a new bull market in the weeks and months ahead. As Woo Network's Jack Tan wrote in a recent note, "Bitcoin is in an 'anti-gravity' phase and could hit $75,000 in the coming months," going on to add that "the sudden spike is just a preview of what will happen if ETFs actually get approved."

Regulators gonna regulate

For many years, the cryptocurrency market was able to avoid regulation as a kind of outcrop of the financial markets populated exclusively by tech aficionados and early adopters. However, starting with the initial big boom of 2017 and intensifying with each subsequent bull cycle, digital currencies (Bitcoin especially) have garnered more and more attention from regulators the world over. The problem remains the lack of harmonisation globally, with huge variations in the way cryptocurrencies are treated.

For instance, in places like Switzerland and Singapore, crypto innovation is actively encouraged, and there is a clear legal framework for investors and businesses to operate within. Meanwhile, we also have countries like China that have cracked down on cryptocurrency activity, outlawing ICOs and cryptocurrency exchanges altogether. Even within the US, the lack of an unequivocal federal line means that there is huge legal variation between individual states. The SEC, however, cannot seem to reach a consensus on whether tokens and coins can be considered securities and has changed its positions several times since the 2017 DAO report was released.

Beyond security status, investors and traders are most interested in taxation and it appears that nationwide clarity is finally coming to the US on this particular matter. The IRS has finally released guidelines on how to calculate and report bitcoin gains and losses, and people must now declare their cryptocurrency holdings and transactions on their annual returns. Exchanges are also being required to implement strict KYC and AML checks on their depositors, and it is hoped that once both the tax and legal compliance issues are ironed out, even more institutions and funds will get on board with BTC, which will most likely result in further gains.

Trade Bitcoin and more with Libertex

Libertex (https://libertex.com/) has vast experience bringing the financial markets to ordinary traders and investors. As a regulated CFD broker, Libertex offers a wide variety of CFD underlying assets spanning a range of asset classes, including stocks, ETFs and commodities, through to forex, options and, of course, cryptocurrencies. Libertex provides its clients with the opportunity to trade both on long or short CFD positions with optional leverage, all without the need to physically own any of the underlying assets. Its cryptocurrency offering naturally includes CFDs tracking the major physical coins, such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, it also offers CFDs in crypto-related underlying assets such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Bitcoin/USD futures. Libertex has over 120 different digital assets available to trade as CFDs with industry-leading terms and spreads.

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Libertex was recognized as the best trading application and cryptocurrency broker
We are pleased to announce, that the Libertex trading platform was recognized as the best trading application of 2017 and the best cryptocurrency broker version as per the Forex Awards.
"The Libertex recognition as the best trading application and cryptocurrency broker proves that 2.2 million traders made the right decision in choosing it to trade standard financial assets and for cryptocurrency trading", - said Igor Galkin, Forex Club Head of Sales
Libertex is a trading platform at the forefront of modern financial technology. Libertex users are able to make transactions with more than 180 financial assets. There are standard financial assets - stocks, indexes, energy contracts etc, and modern assets, such as cryptocurrencies and their cross-rates via Libertex. Professionals all over the world recognize Libertex as the leader in traditional and innovative financial asset trading.
One of the top financial magazines, Global Banking and Finance Review, recognized Libertex as the EES best trading application in 2016.
Forex Awards is an international rating company. Since 2010, it has been evaluating financial entities and trading platforms as well as applications.

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