When the event known as the halving occurs on the Bitcoin blockchain, estimated to occur on or around May 13, 2020, the rewards miners reap for their efforts will drop by half. The halving is a mechanism built into the blockchain’s code to prevent inflation by slowing the production of new bitcoins, while increasing value for investors at the same time.
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On the Bitcoin blockchain, miners compete to solve difficult computational problems in order to be the validator of a block, which permanently records Bitcoin transactions. The winning miner receives a block reward in bitcoins for their efforts, which is the only way new bitcoins are minted. The deceleration of new supply is designed to halve the reward miners receive for validating a new block (the “block reward”) every 210,000 blocks, until the reward is 0.00000001 BTC (aka a satoshi).
Since the halving phenomenon—which also happened in 2012 and 2016—constricts the new supply of bitcoins, it’s expected to positively influence their value. Additionally, the expectation of appreciation could stimulate demand for Bitcoin with new investors attracted by this potential enter the sector. Many analysts believe this will boost the coin’s value to previously unseen heights. Historical precedent favors these optimists, though some observers believe potential gains caused by the halving have already been priced in via Bitcoin’s 2019-2020 rally.
In the lead-up to the first halving in November 2012, when the block reward was cut from 50 BTC to 25, the Bitcoin price rose from $2 to $12. And in 2013 (the year following the halving), BTC broke the $1,000 mark before falling back down to the $200 range.
The price rose again in 2016, shooting to $650 at the July halving before skyrocketing to nearly $20,000 by December 2017.
Although some analysts have predicted Bitcoin’s price will reach $14,000, $20,000, $27,000, $100,000, and even $400,000 following the 2020 halving, some others believe it will be a “non-event.”
Nonetheless, people are curious, as evidenced by the steep rise in Google searches for “Bitcoin halving” over the past 12 months.
What this leaves potential Bitcoin investors to wonder is: Are the optimists’ predictions hype, wishful thinking, or solidly based on the data?
Two primary reasons Bitcoin has value are 1) like gold, it has a limited and finite supply, and 2) also like gold, mining new bitcoins is progressively more difficult. The halving mechanism only serves to enhance these facts.
Consider that halving takes place every 210,000 blocks—approximately every four years—and will continue until the block reward reaches 0.00000001 BTC (a hundredth of a millionth of a bitcoin). This increment is known as a satoshi. After the final halving, the block reward will be zero and no new bitcoins will be minted. At that point, miners will only receive transaction fees. It is this halving function coded into the blockchain that caps the eventual supply at 21 million bitcoin.
Initially the reward for mining a block was 50 bitcoins. This was halved to 25 bitcoins in 2012, halved again to 12.5 bitcoins in 2016, and will drop to 6.25 bitcoins at the 2020 halving. And each time the reward drops, the amount of computing power required for a miner to earn a bitcoin doubles.