BTC ATH in 2025 prediction: Linear Regression ~$170K

[MrSpasybo]

First of all, this is not financial advice. I have no interest or responsibility in other people's investments. I share my technical analysis opinion, I hope it will be of reference value for everyone.

I have read many topics predicting BTC's ATH in the cycle 2024-2025, but none of the predictions are really clear enough and presented on the price chart. This prompted me to create this topic to share my views and receive constructive feedback from everyone.

My predictions for BTC ATH:
1. BTC ATH in 2025 prediction: Elliott wave & Fibo Retracement ~$160K
2. BTC ATH in 2025 prediction: Parallel channel ~$150K
3. BTC ATH in 2025 prediction: Trendline ~$170K
4. BTC ATH in 2025 prediction: Linear Regression ~$170K

1. Linear regression

Linear regression is a popular method for finding descriptions for existing data sets and making predictions for the future. For BTC, there have been many studies using linear regression, of which Harold Christopher Burger's 2019 study^[1] is extremely detailed and worth referencing than the remaining studies.

I will present the gist of this model: Log(Price) = a * Log(Time) + b
In other words, on the plane [Log(Time), Log(Price)], the resulting graph is a straight line.

Linear regression method will help determine a and b in the function.

2. My approach

I respect Harold's results, but they are not accurate because there are many limitations such as missing data or the model has not converged to the predictable region.

I believe the peak is where the most investor participation is, meaning it is worth predicting. I will focus on predicting BTC's ATH based on past peaks.

3. Verification and prediction

a) 2021: use 3 peaks to predict the 4th peak ~ $60K.

b) 2025: use 4 peaks to predict the 5th peak, assuming peak reached in November 2025 ~ $170K.

So my prediction for BTC's local ATH in the upcoming cycle is $170K.

This prediction is confirmed by many other methods that I will present in the future.

I hope to receive your comments on my prediction 😁
[1] Bitcoin’s natural long-term power-law corridor of growth

[Mr. Magkaisa]

         -   Honestly speaking, because of the institutional investors who are accumulating Bitcoin at the moment, especially the companies that have been approved by the SEC in the Bitcoin spot ETF, I think that the linear line that I see in the image that you gave me is more than 101% and will continue.

No one can say exactly how much Bitcoin's ATH will reach in the coming years. The aforementioned predictions may happen or maybe more, and that depends on what happens. The only thing I'm sure of right now is that it's in really high demand at the moment.

[TomPluz]

Honestly speaking, because of the institutional investors who are accumulating Bitcoin at the moment, especially the companies that have been approved by the SEC in the Bitcoin spot ETF, I think that the linear line that I see in the image that you gave me is more than 101% and will continue. No one can say exactly how much Bitcoin's ATH will reach in the coming years. The aforementioned predictions may happen or maybe more, and that depends on what happens. The only thing I'm sure of right now is that it's in really high demand at the moment.

Any market is all about supply and demand...the more demand and the lesser is the supply can be a big force that can strongly determine the price of any asset. The same thing is happening right now with Bitcoin with the recent approval of many ETFs. And days ago, I can really feel the force coming to Bitcoin. I am not good at technical analysis and I am so poor in trading but as an ordinary observer of things I can understand and in fact anticipate that soon we can really see Bitcoin go astronomical within 2024 and 2025. So I fully agree with OP MrSpasybo that there is a big possibility BTC can reach a new ATH around $170K...more or less. I am sure the whole crypto industry will be rejoicing once it would happen...for now we have to make sure that we have more BTC on our own wallets so we will not be left behind with coming its skyrocketing growth.

[dkbit98]

I am not sure if this is going to happen in 2025 but think we can see Bitcoin going much higher than $170k you predicted, with dollar and all other fiat currencies going down rapidly.
However, better be ready for down trend and bear markets in Bitcoin also, price can't always go up, and it's healthy to have some corrections.
Maybe Hall Finney BTC price prediction is not looking so unreal anymore

[MrSpasybo]

         -   Honestly speaking, because of the institutional investors who are accumulating Bitcoin at the moment, especially the companies that have been approved by the SEC in the Bitcoin spot ETF, I think that the linear line that I see in the image that you gave me is more than 101% and will continue.

No one can say exactly how much Bitcoin's ATH will reach in the coming years. The aforementioned predictions may happen or maybe more, and that depends on what happens. The only thing I'm sure of right now is that it's in really high demand at the moment.

I agree with you: that it is difficult to predict BTC price, but that doesn't mean all predictions are useless ^^

I learn approaches to analysis and prediction, so we can monitor and be proactive in all future scenarios. The calculation model only includes data and mathematical formulas, it is not a prophet, so the results are for reference only.

Given the coincidence in 2021, I expect that this model will continue to be as lucky in 2025. We will have an answer to confirm again in about 2 years 

[JoyMarsha]

         -   Honestly speaking, because of the institutional investors who are accumulating Bitcoin at the moment, especially the companies that have been approved by the SEC in the Bitcoin spot ETF, I think that the linear line that I see in the image that you gave me is more than 101% and will continue.

No one can say exactly how much Bitcoin's ATH will reach in the coming years. The aforementioned predictions may happen or maybe more, and that depends on what happens. The only thing I'm sure of right now is that it's in really high demand at the moment.

I agree with you: that it is difficult to predict BTC price, but that doesn't mean all predictions are useless ^^

Not that all predictions are useless, just that people can't predict the actual price of Bitcoin because of how unpredictable and volatile the crypto market can be.

A crypto analyst can predict a higher price of bitcoin before a particular time, and bitcoin might turn out to give a lower price at that time. We have seen it happen several times, that now makes it difficult for people not listen to people's predictions because of that, because they never get the price correctly no matter how many times they try

[debra]

My predictions for BTC ATH:
1. BTC ATH in 2025 prediction: Elliott wave & Fibo Retracement ~$160K
2. BTC ATH in 2025 prediction: Parallel channel ~$150K
3. BTC ATH in 2025 prediction: Trendline ~$170K
4. BTC ATH in 2025 prediction: Linear Regression ~$170K

According to the predictions, the maximum ATH may be $170K and the minimum ATH is around $150K. So, it is safe to say the chance for the next ATH is $150K at least. It is good if we really can reach $150K, it is a significant improvement of BTC price. If we look at the current pattern of Bitcoin price movement, it is not impossible to reach $150K. Even if it fails to reach $150K, I really expect the price may reach $100k at least.

[KryptoBull]

Linear regression is a popular method for finding descriptions for existing data sets and making predictions for the future. For BTC, there have been many studies using linear regression, of which Harold Christopher Burger's 2019 study^[1] is extremely detailed and worth referencing than the remaining studies.

I will present the gist of this model: Log(Price) = a * Log(Time) + b
In other words, on the plane [Log(Time), Log(Price)], the resulting graph is a straight line.

Linear regression method will help determine a and b in the function.

So my prediction for BTC's local ATH in the upcoming cycle is $170K.

I tried reading Harold's article and the linear regression method but still don't quite understand how to do it, especially creating code on TradingView. Normally, I still get the regression results right away on Excel for ease, it's just not easy to track in real time as you do on TradingView.

This method is also quite good, predictable if the description of the market in the past is accurate and the market is still progressing according to that description and not following a new story as it matures or enters a new new wave with new behavior.

I also hope that the BTC price will go as you predict. When the price will touches 170K USD, we will recheck this topic 

[jeraldskie11]

b) 2025: use 4 peaks to predict the 5th peak, assuming peak reached in November 2025 ~ $170K.

So my prediction for BTC's local ATH in the upcoming cycle is $170K.

This prediction is confirmed by many other methods that I will present in the future.

I hope to receive your comments on my prediction 😁
[1] Bitcoin’s natural long-term power-law corridor of growth

I was amaze to know that you have learned a lot of tools to forecast the market and I can feel that you are having a good time to use this all when you go to the chart. For me, having a lot of tools to forecast the market is good but as times go by in trading, I learned that sometimes it's confusing. That's why I decided to choose only the best indicator to determine the trend, and sign of weaknesses. Well, it's up to us whether we used a lot of tools in trading as long as it works for us then go. I didn't against to traders who use a lot of tools when they analyzing the market, instead I appreciate it a lot just like you.

[Learn Bitcoin]

I guess we have another thread that you created a day before you created this thread which is this one BTC ATH in 2025 prediction: Trendline ~$170K. The difference between these two threads is  Linear Regression ~$170K vs Trendline ~$170K. I guess we could have discussed this in a single thread. That would have created less spam. Or maybe it's better to have different topics for that because the forum needs more threads?  , I don't know the reason, but I just shared my opinion about it.

[Mr. Magkaisa]

         -   Honestly speaking, because of the institutional investors who are accumulating Bitcoin at the moment, especially the companies that have been approved by the SEC in the Bitcoin spot ETF, I think that the linear line that I see in the image that you gave me is more than 101% and will continue.

No one can say exactly how much Bitcoin's ATH will reach in the coming years. The aforementioned predictions may happen or maybe more, and that depends on what happens. The only thing I'm sure of right now is that it's in really high demand at the moment.

I agree with you: that it is difficult to predict BTC price, but that doesn't mean all predictions are useless ^^

Not that all predictions are useless, just that people can't predict the actual price of Bitcoin because of how unpredictable and volatile the crypto market can be.

A crypto analyst can predict a higher price of bitcoin before a particular time, and bitcoin might turn out to give a lower price at that time. We have seen it happen several times, that now makes it difficult for people not listen to people's predictions because of that, because they never get the price correctly no matter how many times they try

-   Everyone's predictions are not wrong, in fact, but it even gives us an additional idea of the predictions they share here on this platform that we belong to.
The only thing that is really important is that we have a plan for when we will sell it and at what price we will sell it.

Because if we don't have a plan for that amount, our hard-earned money can be put in jeopardy. That's why there are others who, when the 150K is reached, will sell it, and he doesn't care if it continues to rise in the market.

[Crwth]

Thank you for sharing OP, it's a great view of what the possible ATH in 2025 would be. There are a lot of things that could happen within the timeframe but it's still worth speculating because it gives us somewhat a looking forward to in terms of price.

The analysis that you gave is compelling and it hasn't failed yet with the previous highs. In the direction that we have now, I believe that we are in that direction already.

[MrSpasybo]

Not that all predictions are useless, just that people can't predict the actual price of Bitcoin because of how unpredictable and volatile the crypto market can be.

A crypto analyst can predict a higher price of bitcoin before a particular time, and bitcoin might turn out to give a lower price at that time. We have seen it happen several times, that now makes it difficult for people not listen to people's predictions because of that, because they never get the price correctly no matter how many times they try

I do not try to convince others of my predictions, because I myself do not believe that I have prophetic abilities. I present this to have a convenient topic for us to discuss methods and monitor the market in the future. It would be fun if I happened to predict correctly!

According to the predictions, the maximum ATH may be $170K and the minimum ATH is around $150K. So, it is safe to say the chance for the next ATH is $150K at least. It is good if we really can reach $150K, it is a significant improvement of BTC price. If we look at the current pattern of Bitcoin price movement, it is not impossible to reach $150K. Even if it fails to reach $150K, I really expect the price may reach $100k at least.

Yeah, as stated, $150K-170K is the price zone that I will monitor in the next cycle, I really hope to see a reversal from increase to decrease of BTCUSD in this price zone in 2025.

I tried reading Harold's article and the linear regression method but still don't quite understand how to do it, especially creating code on TradingView. Normally, I still get the regression results right away on Excel for ease, it's just not easy to track in real time as you do on TradingView.

This method is also quite good, predictable if the description of the market in the past is accurate and the market is still progressing according to that description and not following a new story as it matures or enters a new new wave with new behavior.

I also hope that the BTC price will go as you predict. When the price will touches 170K USD, we will recheck this topic 

Initially, I often used Excel and its Linear Regression feature but the results were not really intuitive and difficult to share or analyze.

TradingView with its huge data warehouse and PineScript is a favorite tool of mine and many other analysts. Everyone can try creating their own indicator on TradingView thanks to the support of ChatGPT!

I was amaze to know that you have learned a lot of tools to forecast the market and I can feel that you are having a good time to use this all when you go to the chart. For me, having a lot of tools to forecast the market is good but as times go by in trading, I learned that sometimes it's confusing. That's why I decided to choose only the best indicator to determine the trend, and sign of weaknesses. Well, it's up to us whether we used a lot of tools in trading as long as it works for us then go. I didn't against to traders who use a lot of tools when they analyzing the market, instead I appreciate it a lot just like you.

I believe that when multiple approaches make the same prediction, the prediction becomes more reliable. That's why I presented my multiple approaches, and they all converge on the $150K-170K price zone.

Each person will be more suitable with a different approach to the market, I always welcome shares and comments from everyone!

I guess we have another thread that you created a day before you created this thread which is this one BTC ATH in 2025 prediction: Trendline ~$170K. The difference between these two threads is  Linear Regression ~$170K vs Trendline ~$170K. I guess we could have discussed this in a single thread. That would have created less spam. Or maybe it's better to have different topics for that because the forum needs more threads?  , I don't know the reason, but I just shared my opinion about it.

Trendline and Linear Regression are two completely different approaches, although they both predict $170K for BTC's ATH in 2025. I'm not focusing on price, but I want to discuss each one with everyone. approach, so separate topics are necessary to avoid confusion.

Thank you for sharing OP, it's a great view of what the possible ATH in 2025 would be. There are a lot of things that could happen within the timeframe but it's still worth speculating because it gives us somewhat a looking forward to in terms of price.

The analysis that you gave is compelling and it hasn't failed yet with the previous highs. In the direction that we have now, I believe that we are in that direction already.

I also hope that we have gotten the right story to describe BTC's past volatility. While everything is still just a prediction, I would not be surprised if BTCUSD reverses at $170K in 2025.

[Faisal2202]

You have made a great effort in creating this topic, and it really is helping, I am not a technical trader but I think I will learn some by reading your topics, and this one is not as lengthy as some of others, point to point, I liked that. Besides this, I also predicted that BTC might touch $100k but was not assuming it could cross $150k, as I do have a thought in my heart somewhere that BTC might touch that, after all it is a win-win in both cases.

But your analysis increases hope in me, last time it increased hope in me about AVAX, and now about BTC, I think I am going to be addicted hehe. Just kidding, but really great work keep it up. I hope everything will go smoothly and we will not see any hurdles in achieving this target.

[Carbitcoin]

Observing the past price movements of BTC, the candlesticks have shown a very bullish sentiment for 2021, reaching new price levels and a new all-time high.  Like 2021, 2024 is expected to be a very bullish year as there is a possibility that it could hit an all-time high this year.