With the "bearish" mood of the Bitcoin market right now just around two weeks after the halving, many are really wondering where is the direction the King of Cryptos can be taking us and whether we can soon see the impact and benefits of the halving come to the market so we can experience a new bull run either this year or 2025. Now, we know that halving will not immediately make Bitcoin a very attractive asset again...and surely this can be taking some months.
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In case this analysis can be true, then it would be good to just continually hodl and wait as this is not a question of IF but of WHEN. This can be the best time to exercise caution and not be swayed by temporary movements of the market and look for the long-term prospect of Bitcoin.
In previous cycles, BTC price has typically traded sideways for a few months after a halving before resuming its strong growth trend. Therefore, the current price correction and the 20% decline from the $73K peak is completely normal. We should accept this re-accumulation as it is necessary for the bullrun at the end of this year.
I cannot predict the exact time when BTC price could break out and make a new high, but I can only present a case on Elliott wave use count. In this wave count, BTC has gone through the first 3 waves of bigger impulse and is currently in wave 4 - a correction wave. BTC price could be pushed down to Fibo 0.382 ~ $49K or Fibo 0.618 ~ $38K. Timewise: wave 4 could last 100% or at least 61.8% of wave 3, so we should expect the end of wave 4 in early July or September of this year. In a worst-case, we may have to wait until December, and I do not hope this will happen as the bullrun needs to start before investors get frustrated and leave the market.