Bitcoin price surge on horizon as OTC desks dry up

[TomPluz]

Bitcoin's bullish trend bolstered by institutional demand and shifting investment patterns. Bitcoin’s price is primed for a surge that could hit record-breaking highs this week, according to a 10X Research report shared with CryptoSlate.

The report outlines key factors driving this bullish momentum. It suggests that Bitcoin will experience a significant upswing if the outflows from Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF drop below $100 million while substantial inflows continue to BlackRock.

These ETFs, launched in January, have notably influenced Bitcoin’s price, propelled by institutional demand. Markus Thielen, the founder of 10X Research, said this influence contributed to a notable 43% increase, amounting to $18,615, in Bitcoin’s price during February.

Read more here: https://cryptoslate.com/record-breaking-bitcoin-price-surge-on-horizon-as-otc-desks-dry-up-10x-research-predicts/

As I am writing this post, Bitcoin is magnificently standing at $68,109.28 and we are expecting more as days of March are leading us to the next halving event around April. Fueled by the SEC approval of 11 ETFs in January, we are now witnessing the big effect of that move, pushing the demand of Bitcoin to a new level...and now some people are already talking on supply crisis as OTC sources are drying up. Bitcoin is surely now making a new ATH in its history. CoinMarketCap says bitcoin (BTC) peaked at $68,789.63 in November 2021. CoinGecko has the largest figure, claiming that bitcoin’s all-time high is $69,044.77, also set in November 2021. Definitely, 2024 will be a big year to remember for Bitcoin and there may not be another year like we are experiencing right now.

[hugeblack]

The closer we get to halving, the higher the probability of correction, but it is surprising that yesterday a few dollars of 68,289.63 ATH was recorded, and all scenarios are still open, so the current cycle of Bitcoin may differ completely from previous cycles.

[Z-tight]

BTC spot etf's are really driving the price of BTC, and who can tell how high BTC price is going to surge in this cycle, institutional investors are buying a lot of BTC's through the spot etf's, we know that a lot of them prefer to buy BTC this way, rather than through an exchange and storing it in their self custodial wallet, even though they are buying and storing it in a way that is not recommended.

A lot of these etf providers and institutional investors too would be buying BTC through the OTC market, but i don't think it is enough to dry up the market, miners also sell their BTC's OTC and now that the halving is close, they are going to be selling their coins to buy gears that are more efficient.

[Lucius]

As I am writing this post, Bitcoin is magnificently standing at $68,109.28 and we are expecting more as days of March are leading us to the next halving event around April.
~snip~

While reading this post I noticed that the price has dropped about 3% in the last hour and we are approaching the $65 000 price point. It seems that a small correction is on the way, now the only question is what is the main reason for it. However, I would not say that there is reason to worry, there are those who estimate that it is time to take the profit and go to a well-deserved retirement.

Bitcoin price surge on horizon as OTC desks dry up

I wonder if this is just speculation, or is there some data that would indicate that there is some truth in it? Some data say that the top 20 CEXs currently have around 1.8 million BTC, and in the past it was speculated that the OTC is, if nothing else, at least identical in terms of liquidity. Given that ETFs currently hold around 350 000 BTC in their possession, it somehow does not seem realistic to me that this is all or almost all that the OTC could offer.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Yes, it seems that the approval of bitcoin spot ETFs is a clear cause for increased demand.

The closer we get to halving, the higher the probability of correction, but it is surprising that yesterday a few dollars of 68,289.63 ATH was recorded, and all scenarios are still open, so the current cycle of Bitcoin may differ completely from previous cycles.

If the ath is clearly beaten, which could happen as early as this March, we will see an irregularity in the previous patterns, but in any case a positive one for us. Hopefully this will be the case and a good omen for what is to come.

While reading this post I noticed that the price has dropped about 3% in the last hour and we are approaching the $65 000 price point. It seems that a small correction is on the way, now the only question is what is the main reason for it. However, I would not say that there is reason to worry, there are those who estimate that it is time to take the profit and go to a well-deserved retirement.

For me the reason for the drop is that it is normal. When the price approaches the previous ath there is resistance because almost everybody is in profit and there are a lot of sell orders. It usually takes several times of approaching the ath and falling until it finally breaks.

[hugeblack]

The closer we get to halving, the higher the probability of correction, but it is surprising that yesterday a few dollars of 68,289.63 ATH was recorded, and all scenarios are still open, so the current cycle of Bitcoin may differ completely from previous cycles.

If the ath is clearly beaten, which could happen as early as this March, we will see an irregularity in the previous patterns, but in any case a positive one for us. Hopefully this will be the case and a good omen for what is to come.

When I wrote the topic, the price had not exceeded ATH, but it seems that it did so yesterday, according to CMC, $69,170.63.
But the price is still lower than it here ----> https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin

In general, the difference is less than a thousand dollars, and if the support drops below that level, we will easily see a price above 70,000, especially since the price rebounds quickly once it moves away from the 60,000 level.

[Captain Corporate]

There will be a lot more action here and there, there is no worries about that for sure. I think its clear that we are going to end up with a much better solution eventually, we just need to end up with a greater risk and reward ratio. Right now it looks like the risk is quite high, and having something like this could very well mean that we are going to end up with a greater risk when you enter at a high price. If you bought it at 20k then it would make sense, but buying at nearly 70k means that you are taking a risk. Doesn't mean you shouldn't, it just means that you should be careful with what you have.

[Lucius]

~snip~
For me the reason for the drop is that it is normal. When the price approaches the previous ath there is resistance because almost everybody is in profit and there are a lot of sell orders. It usually takes several times of approaching the ath and falling until it finally breaks.

I agree that there are always those who sell, and approaching the last ATH was obviously an exit point for some investors. What I was interested in (and I just saw the data) is the fact (if the data is correct) that there was no outflow of BTC from ETFs, but that finally yesterday the total number of BTC held increased to 376 748, and only on March 4 and 5 they added just a little less than 20 000 BTC.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks, because some "experts" are talking about the fact that the market could suddenly cool down and mention a return to $40k.

[Z-tight]

but buying at nearly 70k means that you are taking a risk. Doesn't mean you shouldn't, it just means that you should be careful with what you have.

It is surely better to buy BTC when the price is lower, but not everyone can do that, and no matter how high the price of BTC goes, people would continue buying. There are also fomo buyers, people who never buy when the price is low, and they only buy BTC when the price starts to pump and when they can smell the chance of missing out.

[MCcabe Rory]

but buying at nearly 70k means that you are taking a risk. Doesn't mean you shouldn't, it just means that you should be careful with what you have.

It is surely better to buy BTC when the price is lower, but not everyone can do that, and no matter how high the price of BTC goes, people would continue buying. There are also fomo buyers, people who never buy when the price is low, and they only buy BTC when the price starts to pump and when they can smell the chance of missing out.

I'm thinking it'll dump to maybe 58k region before the real bull begins

[Z-tight]

I'm thinking it'll dump to maybe 58k region before the real bull begins

Maybe it could happen, or maybe not. So many people are talking about this correction, but we will see if it happens and how low the price is going to drop. However, if i wanted to buy some coins, i would buy it now, instead of waiting for the price to dump a little bit, when you are not sure if it is going to happen anytime soon.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks, because some "experts" are talking about the fact that the market could suddenly cool down and mention a return to $40k.

If the 'experts' say that, what I think we will have to do is buy more. It's like the 'experts' predicting that the S&P 500 was going to collapse since 2013 or so when I started investing. As I said on the other forum, you only have to look at the charts to intuit where the price is most likely to go:

Last month:




Last 6 months:




There is a lot of buying pressure exceeding supply, and after a few bounces around the ath the price can only go up.

[Lucius]

If the 'experts' say that, what I think we will have to do is buy more. It's like the 'experts' predicting that the S&P 500 was going to collapse since 2013 or so when I started investing. As I said on the other forum, you only have to look at the charts to intuit where the price is most likely to go:
---
There is a lot of buying pressure exceeding supply, and after a few bounces around the ath the price can only go up.

I agree, because many of these "experts" are actually trying to bring a little panic to the market in order to cause a correction for their own or someone else's interest - and for all those who are buying tens of thousands of BTC today, this means huge savings. The demand driven by ETFs is really incredible and if they continue at the same pace in some 2-3 months they could even have about 1 million BTC - of course assuming that there are no significant outflows, which is currently not the case.

The only thing we need to watch out for is the possibility of something really bad happening, whether it's a major hacking of a CEX, or some crazy law being passed in the US or the EU.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I agree, because many of these "experts" are actually trying to bring a little panic to the market in order to cause a correction for their own or someone else's interest - and for all those who are buying tens of thousands of BTC today, this means huge savings. The demand driven by ETFs is really incredible and if they continue at the same pace in some 2-3 months they could even have about 1 million BTC - of course assuming that there are no significant outflows, which is currently not the case.

That's for sure, when we see 'predictions' from these big players we have to think if there is no hidden interest behind them.  I am glad I was right at least for the moment with mine, as the price is currently at 72.000$, now we can talk about a break of the ath. I would expect the price to go up, with some dips, obviously, to around $100,000, where I think the price will stay for a while. The only doubt I also have is if in this rise some dip could pierce the $70,000 level downwards, and then go up again.

[Lucius]

~snip~
The only doubt I also have is if in this rise some dip could pierce the $70,000 level downwards, and then go up again.

I think it is possible, because just as the numbers go up because ETFs are buying, the trend can also be reversed if their clients were satisfied with the profits and would start selling. However, I hope that the corrections will not be so drastic, because 30% does not look very pleasant for ordinary people, but for those who want to fill their bags at some low levels and then try to pump the price up again, it does not seem unpleasant at all.

The price of $100 000 is certainly a big psychological level for many, because I believe that many ordinary people will then sell everything they have, especially those who bought a long time ago. The only question is how long it will take us to get there, that is, whether ETFs will still buy tens of thousands of BTC every week and thus continue to amortize all the selling pressure that will happen at that time.