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Messages - pawel7777

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1
What do you guys think of Leverkusen getting a proper beating from Atalanta and ending their 51 games without a loss streak? Will this affect their performance next season? Do you consider them to be the favourite to defend their title (if no major changes to the team are made)?

I think it was a sobering reality check and a signal that they need to continue working hard to repeat their success and nothing will be given to them for free. There was almost something magical about their undefeated streak, especially given the 3 recent 90+ minute equalisers, which could create an impression that there's some higher power behind them preventing them from losing. They might have believed it a little bit too much and got a cold shower.

2
Gambling discussion / Re: The UFC Discussion and Prediction Topic
« on: May 23, 2024, 12:48:19 AM »
and he only wants to fight Stipe who in his last fight was brutally KOd and then retired. probably not wanting to fight anymore but because the offer is huge to refuse, Stipe might just bite. Dana will not likely make him fight Tom.

If Tom manages to defend his interim belt against Curtis at the UFC 304, which he most likely will, his popularity will grow even more. Jones is already taking a lot of critique for pushing to fight Stipe instead of Tom, so if he was to announce his retirement after that fight, it would be widely seen as an act of cowardice, escaping from the most worthy opponent. If he cares about his "legacy", that would be a stupid move.
Looking at things money-wise, it makes sense for Jones to wait till Tom is hyped up to the maximum and then take that fight, which could turn out to be one of the biggest in terms of revenue.

3
I expected that, in the best-case scenario for Atalanta, they could steal a win by one goal or win the penalty shootout. Instead, they've proven to the world that they are no pushovers and are force to be reckoned with.
I suspect the fact that Atalanta is still fighting in the Serie A (with 2 more games to go), while Bundesliga has already concluded, has a pretty big effect on the result. It could be that Bayer subconsciously went into the relaxed, post-season mode, while Atalanta didn't lose their rhythm.
It could also be that the German team convinced themselves a little too much that they were invincible, which was reinforced by all the experts, fans and odds makers, and lost that underdog energy they started the season with. There's nothing worse you can do in any competition than to start celebrating before the game begins.

4
Gambling discussion / Re: The UFC Discussion and Prediction Topic
« on: May 22, 2024, 12:00:33 AM »
(...) this is base on PM leaked by someone that he talked with in twitter https://twitter.com/SpinninBackfist/status/1791709220854812952 (...)

No way this is real  ;D
If it is, it's not really a leaked convo, he just dm'd a guy who hated on him, so he was probably trolling. Or maybe I'm giving him too much credit... I don't know.


Anyhow, here's Paolo Costa with a piece of financial advice:
https://x.com/BorrachinhaMMA/status/1791263736453628089


5


I don't mind Leverkusen winning it tomorrow, because we all like Cinderella stories - a team that nobody expected to win anything is having their best season ever and keeps on pumping their games without a loss record. But, at the same time, the odds for Atalanta look really attractive.
Leverkusen will have to lose eventually, so why not tomorrow? It's also possible that Bayer could lose the final in penalties, so technically speaking, they wouldn't lose the game and their undefeated run would not end.
I'd say that both teams (if performing at their 100%) are on a similar level, with Bayer being only slightly better. So I made a small double-chance bet on Atalanta at x1.94.

6
The final round was quite predictable, but not going to lie, I' was a bit surprised by the consistent win streaks of both top teams in the final stages.
Winning streaks of 6 for Arsenal and 9 for Man City were, statistically speaking, quite unlikely to happen in such a strong league. I was expecting them to show some season fatigue, similar to Liverpool, who were hanging in there for a long time, but couldn't withstand the pressure and dropped out of the title race.
Both teams can be proud of their performance, sadly, the winner could be only one.

7
Gambling discussion / Re: The UFC Discussion and Prediction Topic
« on: May 19, 2024, 06:30:59 PM »
Main card results from the last night's fight night event:



Lerone Murphy didn't disappoint and manged to win by decision after 5 round war with Barboza. As expected, he expressed his interest in featuring in the UFC 304 in Manchester UK, his home town.

8
I don't know if there's any official boxing rule saying that a boxer needs to drop to the ground (or kneel etc) before he can be considered knocked down and the counting can begin, but if it's up for the referee to decide, then I see no controversy re the round 9 situation.
Tyson was in trouble but he was conscious, so stopping the fight would be completely wrong, and I don't think Fury would necessarily be KO'd cold if the referee didn't step in. Anything could've happened, but, to me, it looked like Fury was about to drop on his knee before he noticed the ref got between himself and Usyk.
This doesn't matter though, as Usyk has still won, and during the post-fight interview, he wasn't bothered by the situation at all.
I haven't seen the full fight yet, only the extensive highlights, but think Usyk won fair and square. The rematch should be really exciting.

9


I was fearing that West Ham might put everything on defence and that it could take a while for the City to score the first goal, but happy to report that I was wrong.
Foden only needed 2 mins to give his team the lead and in 18th he scored the 2nd one.

Looks like there won't be any last-minute surprises at the top. Man City is clearly dominating with 83% possession and 9 shots on goal already.

10
I already made my bet for Fury to win by decision here. ML is also a great bet, but Fury by decision is 3.x.

And so this is going to be historic fight for boxing fans as this is a unification fight and for sure we doesn't want to miss this big fight. And it looks like Fury was lighter than usual, meaning he wants more movement and will try to outbox as much as he can Usyk.

So goodluck to anyone here.

Yup, Fury clearly took this fight seriously and was really focussed on diet and cutting down his weight.
As I can see this fight going either way, I made a small bet an a draw at odds of x12.50
If the fight is really close, the judges might be hesitant to give it to any of them, knowing how much is at stake. And I hear they have a contracted option for a rematch.

11
Gambling discussion / Re: The UFC Discussion and Prediction Topic
« on: May 19, 2024, 12:04:40 AM »
Tom doesn't have much choice as Jones is inactive.  and though its unusual that an interim contender has to defend high position, i think this is to maintain his position ready to fight whenever Jones comes back.

Dana will probably keep him fighting someone else maybe Stipe and then Gane or even Lewis until Dana gets the desired outcome. Curtis is never easy to begin with.

Yeah, the first choice for Tom was Cyril, but he couldn't make it as he'll be shooting some film or something, so Curtis stepped in instead.
Dana has already confirmed that Jones will be fighting Stipe next, which is an odd situation as the undisputed champ should be fighting the interim champ immediately after his return from an absence.
So, depending on when the Jones Vs Stipe fight will take place, Tom's next opponent would either be Jones (assuming both of them win their fights) or probably Gane.
If Jones refuses to fight the interim champ after the Stipe fight, he would almost certainly be stripped of the title.

12
A history was made today. I believe this is the first time a club ended the season without a single loss. Well done to Leverkusen.
Stuttgart also had a good day, they defeated Monchengladbach easily 4-0 and overtook Bayern for the 2nd place.

But the biggest winner of the final round was Union Berlin, who won 2-1 against Freiburg after a tough game and managed to escape the relegation only by better goal difference than Bochum. The winning goal for Union was scored in the 2nd minute of the additional time, so there must have been a proper drama there.


13
Gambling discussion / Re: The UFC Discussion and Prediction Topic
« on: May 18, 2024, 11:51:00 AM »
Is anyone excited about tonight's UFC Event? Given it's just a Fight Night even and collides with the Fury Vs Usyk megafight, the UFC didn't bring in any high profile fighters. The only guy I'm familiar here is Barboza, who will be the underdog against Lerone Murphy. I've done some quick search on Murphy, he's undefeated (with one draw though), got 7 out of his 13 wins by KO, and the rest by decision. Very possible it'll be a 100% striking match, as both of them prefer stand up.
It's a big chance for Murpgy to possibly break into the top 15. And who knows, maybe if he wins and suffer no damage, they would put him on the UFC 304 card (main or prelim), given it's in Manchester, UK and that's where he's from.



14
Not sure Arsenal will win the trophy this season because Manchester City will defend their title a little longer, even if that mistake won't be fatal, until they lose to West Ham, this club's last few games haven't been very good, so Manchester City will find it easier to take it.
(...)

Betting on Arsenal to win the league at this stage means you're most likely to lose. But then again, the odds of x10.00 are quite attractive to bet some pocket change on it, a small enough amount that you won't feel much difference if it's gone.

Man City is a huge favourite, but, looking from a slightly different angle, and assuming West Ham will care about winning at all (just for the glory), it might not be as easy game as many expect it to bee.
First of all, West Ham know how desperate Man City is for the 3 points, so they'll probably start very defensively and will be focussed on just stealing time. As each passing minute of a goalless game will make the City more stressed and desperate, the risk of them making mistakes or overcommitting to attack will increase, potentially opening situations for counterstrikes for West Ham.

Anyhow, I think the odds for the City to win the game or the league are so low that it's not worth it. From a purely gambling perspective, I think it makes more sense to make a small bet on them not winning. But I wish they succeed, so won't be doing that.

ps. it would be hilarious if Man City didn't win against West Ham but Arsenal also failed against Everton.

15
Many were quite surprised by Usyk steping on scale and showing almost 6kg (or 12.5 pounds) heavier than in his fights against Joshua or Dubois, but it turned out to be a mistake caused my miscommunication between the supervisor and Michael Buffer.
His actual weight was not 233.5 pounds (106kg) but 223 pounds (101kg).

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/boxing/usyk-weight-wrong-fury-weighin-b2547157.html

For comparison, Fury is 262 pounds (119kg), so heavier by 39 pounds (almost 18kg).

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