I agree with you, even if we are seeing a big dump, from $73k-$63k still we haven't get into the bitcoin halving, the most important event this year and for the bull cycle to start.
So if I will have to predict it, maybe at the end of the year we might be as close to $100k. Yes, I said it right, we might be getting closer to 6 digits after the bull run, so it's going to be so big and massive that everyone will be very happy in December 2024.
I don't predict the market but in my opinion, there will be possibly another dump phase to drag Bitcoin down to about $51,000 to $53,000.
From the latest ATH to current price, it is about -15% drawdown but to clean up the market, I bet that it will drop more to like -20% or -30%.
I have a thread about it
You can zoom in to see the chart with different time frames like 1Y.
A deeper drawdown might (or might not) happen but even if it happens, it won't be a nightmare for true Bitcoin investors. It will be great chance for true Bitcoin investors to buy a f* dip and in a big bull run, dips are chances to buy, not to sell.
There are changes in capital rotation from old investors to new investors but it shows that this bull run still have big room to rise more. See
- New investors
- Capital rotation
New investors
The inflow of new investors shows a local maximum for the last year, but in each cycle, the number of new investors has decreased.
Assess the current state of the inflow of new investors and compare it with the history of the last 11 years.
Capital Rotation
Look at the capital rotation in cycles 🔵 of old and 🟠 new investors. In previous cycles, the dominance of new investors lasted for 18 and 6 months before the peak.
In the current cycle, it has lasted for 2 months.