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Messages - Lucius

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1
As things stand, it would be best if the feds confiscate all the coins at some point, after that all the coins will be clean. After their "mixing", there is no need to look into the earlier history of the coin.  ::)

When we look at all the seizures over the years, maybe we could say that those who fight the most against the mixers are actually the biggest "mixers" and turn all the "dirty coins" into clean ones. Of course, they profit by doing so, and in such a way that their fee is only 100% ::)

2
Yeah I think the spot ETF really is the reason why ATH goes off too early as we all know it usually happens after the said halving event. Such a great news makes ATH so maybe we have to expect more in the coming days.

There is no other reason that anyone could find to explain why we went from $15 500 to $72 000 in just over 1 year. Over 500 000 BTC bought by ETFs in just a few months is proof enough that money makes the world move, including Bitcoin. I would rather say in the coming months, and maybe even years if the pattern repeats itself and we have to wait for 2025.

3
After the next bull run cycle, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $100k is not inconceivable, but it is unlikely. I'm not sure when BTC will reach $200k-400k, and if I tell my kids that I bought my first BTC below $400, they'll never believe me if they don't see a Porch or a Ferrari in the basement. LOL  :D My current purse is not enormous, and I feel that BTC is becoming further out of reach with each passing year.
~snip~


I wish you were right, but every big bull run was followed by a correction that turned into a bear market - and from what I remember since 2014 every correction caused a 50%+ price drop, which would mean that even if the next ATH is $200k, we can hardly expect that after the correction the price will remain above $100k.

As for Lambo and other metal beasts, I'm not someone who strives for such things, but I understand that some people have the need to prove something to themselves and others in this way ;)


What happened to crypto asset diversification? Where do we draw the line? I have a few Sol shitcoins in my wallet that I purchased at the $18 dip, and I haven't decided whether to get eth just yet; everything is dependent on the Bitcoin price. I imagine eth hitting $10k or more in the next bull market, and owning 2-3 pieces wouldn't be a bad idea unless you know something I don't. Tell me.

Maybe I'm wrong, but our colleague is a long-time miner who probably isn't thrilled that ETH has become a POS coin, but neither are many others. I'm not saying that you still can't make money by investing in it, but maybe some other coins have much greater potential.


4
Don't call him El Loco, Lucius
Since Milei is very against their Central Bank, the whole power system is against him.
The media defame him calling him El Loco - The Madman.
Last week someone prominent said Milei is a drug addict.


As far as I know, that is his nickname, not given to him by the media or by someone who hates him for his ideas. There is no doubt that he has very drastic ideas, but I also personally do not think that he can change his country with them, especially if it is publicly known from which country he is asking for help, and which was the first one he visited after becoming president (US).

Quote from: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/el-loco-won-the-argentina-election-last-month-with-outlandish-ideas-now-he-s-backpedaling/ar-AA1l44Xh
President-elect Javier Milei, known by the nickname “El Loco” since he was a kid, rose from university professor to social-media celebrity, making his mark as an economic libertarian and social libertine.

All the while, the inflation in Argentina has sunk.
His popularity is growing - The people in Argentina love him more and more.
~snip~


Considering the economic situation in that country, people simply like the change that has taken place, but it remains to be seen what the president will do during his mandate. As far as I know, his party does not have a majority and I don't know if he will be able to implement all the changes he wants, but time will tell if there will be positive changes or not.

5
Bitcoin Mining / Re: Argentina To Mine Bitcoin With Stranded Gas
« on: May 11, 2024, 04:01:43 PM »
It is true that a huge amount of electricity is lost every year and that it is about 50 000 TWh, and that for comparison BTC mining consumes somewhere around 200 TWh, which refutes any crazy claim that Bitcoin can have anything to do with a serious impact on the environment. Therefore, any use of what would otherwise be completely useless has a positive effect on the economy of a country and creates additional value.

There were some stories that "El Loco" is somewhat pro-BTC, but this is the first time I read that something concrete is happening in that direction - although this is not a revolutionary idea that has not been talked about before.

6
It seems that many have forgotten how "friendly" Trumo was towards crypto at the end of his first term, and that he had a lot of bad things planned that the new administration rejected or at least postponed for a long time. Whoever will be the president in the end will not change much when it comes to the attitude towards cryptocurrencies, because in the end they are all the same, fighting for their positions and for as much power as possible.

Interesting reading for those who want to know a little more -> The Mnuchin Files: New Documents Shed Light on Trump-Era Crypto Policy

7
This could be the final time we see Bitcoin below $100k I see a great opportunity for everyone to dive in before price pump. There has been little market action, as practically everyone is waiting for the final dip before the bull run to stack more. I'm still on the bench waiting for the right time to enter the market.

Are you referring to this cycle or in general that it will no longer be possible to buy under $100k? In any case, I believe that regardless of the strength of the bull run, in the end there will still be a correction, and that it will not be less than 50%, which will mean that at some point the price of BTC will again be as it is today (possibly even lower).

As for hesitating and waiting for the "right moment", it is certainly some kind of game or even gambling - because although it is possible that the price will fall even lower, it is also possible that it will not be much lower than the levels we had recently. In addition, a lot of people today are not at all satisfied, even when you tell them that within 1+ years they could earn 100% if they invest in BTC, because they dream of earnings from the past, and today's numbers are missing at least one 0 more that is not at all realistic.

8
Perhaps there are investors from China who chooses to keep their Bitcoin or some altcoins. Before the total ban, it's more on them going after altcoin if I remember around 2017-2019 era, Bitcoin was not even in their top crypto if I remember it correctly. They have some altcoins that has been developed by the Chinese that is on the top. Now, it's really hard to gauge the data as the game really change already with institutions and whales are into investment with all the ETF's and other instruments and future contracts.

I've seen a lot of different research over the years and it always seemed strange to me that the top countries in terms of "crypto adaptation" are those where there are some kind of bans regarding cryptocurrencies. However, it should probably be taken into account that a country that is quite crypto friendly but has less than 5 million inhabitants may have fewer crypto "users" than a country where cryptocurrencies are partially or completely banned, but that country has a very large population.

As I already wrote, the countries where there are the most people who own cryptocurrencies and the countries that have the most physical and online stores where it is possible to pay with cryptocurrencies are something completely different.

9
Yes history will repeat itself once again but I think people are afraid of such lower prices and they are selling their coins with loss which also affects the market negatively. If we wait and keep the previous history of halving in mind then we will not be caught in the opposite direction.
~snip~


I don't know what kind of low prices you are talking about considering that 1 BTC is still worth over $60k? About 1 year ago, the value was half as much, and some 18 months ago it was even 4 times less than today. If people failed to profit in all this, I really don't know what their problem is and whether they are perhaps too greedy or misled by various influencers who mostly talk about things they know nothing or very little about...

10
I will say that I hope that the pattern will be repeated, i.e. that the halving will have a positive effect on the price as before. What somewhat disturbed the usual sequence of events was the new ATH before the halving, but there was a good reason for that (spot ETFs), but also the fact that in the last bear market we broke even the ATH from 2017 in a negative sense, of course .

All this only indicates that we must always be prepared for unexpected situations that can significantly disrupt what we consider a logical sequence of events. Therefore, unless something unforeseen happens, I hope that we will again have a big bull run in the near future.

11
30.4% percent? It's crazy high and that means you could talk about cryptocurrency to stranger as conversation starter. Although it's a shame the article doesn't mention how they obtain the number/percentage, which makes me question it's accuracy.

When you look at the fact that, apart from Ukraine, there is not a single other country from Europe that has some of the countries with the highest purchasing power and, accordingly, they certainly have a significant share of people who own cryptocurrencies. This is obviously a very limited survey conducted by a payment processor that apparently generates clients from those countries.

It is always interesting to see China in the top 10 countries when it comes to cryptocurrencies, considering that they banned them some 7-8 years ago. However, for me, a much more significant research would be to get data on where, for example, Bitcoin is mostly used as a cryptocurrency, and not as an investment.

12
I imagine when they liquidate all that crypto, if they haven't already, it's going to cause a massive dip in the market price.

If most of them are altcoins (as it seems to me), then even the billions worth of altcoins that will be dumped on the market will not affect the price of BTC too much. If I happen to keep some altcoins that are mentioned around FTX, I would seriously think about getting rid of them as soon as possible.

But anyway, I am pleasantly surprised at the outcome. I certainly was not expecting FTX to repay any of its victims, after we saw the long line of rug-pulls that happened in 2022.

I hope I'm wrong, but things like this move very slowly and it could be years before anyone gets any funds back. If the Mt.Gox case has been going on for about 10 years, can we expect the FTX disaster to be over in at least half that time?

13
I've never been so convinced of $100k in the next cycle but after looking at this price chart I think $100k is minimum,.I think we're heading to $200k. I don't see anything stopping it.

Someone will have to buy a lot of BTC for that to happen, and now the question is whether we can count on retail buyers or institutional players - or maybe both? The fact is that we now have spot ETFs in the US and they have proven to be a powerful factor in pumping up the price, but we also see that money does not flow in only one direction.

I personally hope that the price at its peak will reach at least x2 compared to the post halving in 2020, which would mean around $140k. If that doesn't happen, I still hope that we will at least reach that magical $100k that everyone has been waiting for so long.

14
~snip~
You could just make a few hops inside your own wallet , or even exchange them for another coin in a swap service if you are very  paranoid.


It's always a good extra step for anyone who wants extra privacy, but it comes at a price since every transaction has a price. However, I would rather pay a few $ more than have possible problems when my coins arrive at their destination. Now that I'm already thinking about it, maybe mixers could also enable additional "mixing" of already mixed coins in a way to make a couple of hops through addresses that the client could specify in the mixing process.

15
I will only join those who are skeptical about what politicians say in an effort to gain power, and I think that we all have the right to doubt what one of the candidates for the US presidency says. The fact that he made a complete U-turn from his previous statements causes optimism among some, but for me Trump is still a man who can wake up in the morning and say something, and already have a completely opposite opinion in the evening.

Regardless of who the new US president is, we should keep in mind that people change, but that the main policy guidelines remain mostly the same, especially when it comes to the protection of national interests. One of those interests is certainly their domestic currency, and any other currency that would ever be a threat to it (including BTC) will not receive friendly treatment.

Here's some more positivity from Trump -> https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1788371259287327136


~snip~
This hurts to decide. It's like being forced to choose whether you want to die by being hit by a bus or by being set on fire.


I wouldn't be in their shoes with that choice, because I feel a bit sorry for Joe, who is obviously an old and sick man who simply has nothing to look for in politics, while on the other hand, Trump has so much negative weight on his back that it is not at all clear to me how can be a candidate for president.

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