Libertex was recognized as the best trading application and cryptocurrency broke

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Six down, six to go: the state of the markets 6 months into 2023

Just when it seemed like the worst was behind us, after weathering the pandemic and finally returning to something approaching “the old normal”, we were completely blindsided by an economic and energy crisis the likes of which hadn’t been seen since the 70s. Inflation ran riot, stocks plummeted, and fear was at an all-time high. But since the start of 2023, things have slowly but surely, almost unobservedly, begun to improve across all markets.

The three biggest US indices (DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100) are up around 10%, 20%, and 30% respectively since Q4 2022. Europe, too, has seen its flagship Eurostoxx 600 increase approximately 15% over the same period. Even China – which has had its own combination of a housing crisis and geopolitical uncertainty to deal with – has now begun to see a resurgence after over a year of stagnation. Forex, on the other hand, has been uncharacteristically volatile, with the dollar and euro making history. Gold and silver, meanwhile, have been surprisingly flat considering the fear and risk aversion characterising the market. Finally, crypto appears to have weathered the worst of the storm and is back to a certain level of stability.

Six months into the year, we’re able to have a closer look into what factors were behind these market trends.

Taking stock(s)

The global equities market has been on a rollercoaster ride ever since 2020. It started with the huge yet predictable crash once it became clear the world economy would be locking down, then we had a period of monster growth in just about everything but air travel, leisure, and hospitality – though tech and green energy were by far the best-performing sectors. This was followed by a series of small crashes and a long, protracted bear market in 2022 once it became clear that the end of the pandemic wasn’t going to be the panacea many had been hoping for and many of the largest gainers of 2021 were now hugely overvalued. After a very lengthy sideways channel, US and European stocks appear to have entered a new bullish cycle as of Q4 2022. As we touched upon earlier, Western indices are now up an average of 20% over the last six-to-nine months. This is somewhat unusual given the high level of inflation and correspondingly hawkish policy of the Federal Reserve. However, equities markets are usually ahead of the curve, and it could well be that the smart money had pre-empted a change of stance by the Fed amid the economic pain that was present.

East isn’t East

The recovery isn’t just limited to the West, though. After a period of uncertainty stemming both from internal factors like China’s tech crackdown and international geopolitical issues surrounding Taiwan and Hong Kong, Chinese stocks are also apparently entering a new growth phase. We’ll surely remember the infamous disappearance of Jack Ma and the last-hour scrapping of the Ant Group IPO – these examples and others promptly sent Chinese tech stocks into a prolonged tailspin. However, as of November 2022, China’s Big Three of Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu have in fact gained around 60%, 25%, and 65% respectively. Much will still depend on Fed policy and a resolution to the ongoing geopolitical and economic crises. However, the Fed’s recent softening and the HKSE’s dual counter system are both positive factors for global stocks, including Chinese

Forex in the spotlight…for once

The traditional currencies market is often overlooked. We get it, it’s not as exciting or as fast-moving as stocks or crypto. But Forex is actually by far the largest market of all with trading volumes of over $40 billion every single day – and so when it goes nuts, people take note. And at the tail end of 2022, something highly irregular happened. That’s right, the euro and US dollar were briefly trading at parity – a quote that hadn’t been seen for over two decades beforehand. By the end of January 2023, however, we were already seeing a perfectly average 1.10 on the Fibre. The reasons behind this sudden recovery are less clear than the factors behind the initial disbalance in EURUSD. Effectively, the Fed started to ease off slightly on the hawkish rhetoric at a time when the ECB became serious about getting interest rates up above 4% in a bid to halt mounting price pressure. However, the dollar also has problems of its own. Recent geopolitical tension has demonstrated that the BRICs and other developing world nations are no longer afraid to trade dollar-denominated assets in their local currencies and this could lead to a long-term waning of the greenback’s strength. Investors would be wise to keep an eye on the 2- and 5-year Treasury bond yield for clues about short- and medium-term movement.

Don’t forget the metals

One asset class that some have called lacklustre over the past six months and earlier is precious metals. Ever since the pandemic struck, gold bugs and analysts alike have been calling a “commodities super-cycle” in which gold is tipped to top $3000. The reality, however, has been very different. Despite record inflation, geopolitical instability, and general economic uncertainty, gold was relatively flat throughout 2022 and the first half of 2023. In fact, until about January of this year, the yellow metal was toying with pre-pandemic price levels. Since then, however, gold is up almost 20% and has already breached its key resistance of $2000 per Troy ounce. The truth, as usual, is a bit more complicated than it looks at first glance. One of the main reasons for gold’s perceived weakness in 2022 was the uncharacteristically strong US dollar. In reality, gold had strengthened over 10% when quoted in euros, but the galloping greenback had virtually wiped out the dollar-denominated asset’s gains. That isn’t to say that gold isn’t looking strong on its own now that the currency market has normalized.

Cryptic clues

Any modern discussion of the market landscape wouldn’t be complete without at least a passing glance at digital assets. We’ll all surely remember the whirlwind boom cycle of 2020-2021, followed by the equally memorable “crypto winter” that saw Bitcoin lose almost 70% from its November 2021 ATH of $64,400. After sliding all the way to $16,529 on the last day of 2022, the first six months of 2023 have been overwhelmingly positive for the original cryptocurrency. Its current price of $31,187 marks an 85% increase in value YTD. Ethereum, too, is up a solid 55% since January, as well as numerous other major altcoins. This would suggest that the worst of the previous bear cycle is well and truly behind the digital assets market. As well as this, a new mining capacity comes online amid a more reasonable mining price of $17,000 per BTC. Institutions also appear to be predicting a bull market in 2023, with weekly capital inflows from investment funds backed by digital assets reaching $199 million last week. Another positive factor for both institutional and retail investment was the filing on 15 June by BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management firm, to list a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Much remains to be seen in this still volatile space, but crypto is definitely a much more welcoming sector than it was this time last year.

About Libertex

Part of the Libertex Group, Libertex is an online broker offering tradable CFDs with underlying assets being commodities, Forex, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and others. Libertex also offers investments in real stocks.

Over the years, Libertex has received more than 40 prestigious international awards and recognitions, including “Best CFD Broker Europe” (Global Brands Magazine, 2022) and “Most Trusted Broker in Europe” (Ultimate Fintech Awards, 2021). Libertex is the Official Online Trading Partner of FC Bayern, bringing the exciting worlds of football and trading together.

Since being founded in 1997, the Libertex Group has grown into a diverse group of companies, serving millions of clients from several countries all over the world.
In Europe the Libertex trading platform is operated by Indication Investments Ltd., a Cyprus Investment Firm regulated and supervised by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) with CIF License number 164/12.

For more information about Libertex visit www.libertex.com


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

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Libertex Named ‘Best CFD Broker’ at World Finance Forex Awards 2023

After much anticipation, the 2023 World Finance Forex Awards winners have finally been announced. As a prestigious publication aimed finance professionals, as well as corporate and private investors, World Finance magazine is famed for its award-winning reportage. It covers a broad range of topics from banking and insurance to wealth management and infrastructure investment, with contributions from some of the world’s most well-respected economists and theorists as well as consultants in government think tanks and the WEF.

In its annual Forex Awards ceremony, World Finance magazine seeks to formally recognise the companies that have stood out in the Forex market over the previous year. It was a great honour, therefore, that Libertex was named ‘Best CFD Broker’ in this 2023 year’s edition. For Libertex as a company, every single award has unique significance.

However, not all accolades worthy of pride come with a trophy. One such extraordinary achievement came last year in the form of Libertex’s official recognition as a Great Place to Work®, with our receipt of this certification of the highest distinction of working culture in the business world. Another massive coup for Libertex was the securing of a multi-year deal as an Official Online Trading Partner of FC Bayern whose core values align strongly with our own.

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Currency markets mixed amid latest Fed rate hike

The past couple of years have been tough on much of the world, but between severe geopolitical insecurity and astronomical fuel costs, Europe has undoubtedly been the hardest-hit region. And now, after a more-than-deleterious start to 2023, the European economy is starting to show worrying signs of a manufacturing slowdown compared to its US counterpart. As a result, the euro and British pound find themselves in a precarious position against the US dollar, whose domestic economy seems to be faring far better amid a strong jobs market and healthy manufacturing and services PMIs. Though the summer has provided some respite for the fuel-poor Old Continent, winter will be here soon enough, and then fuel insecurity will surely rear its ugly head once more, plunging the European economy back into trouble.

Living in America

In stark contrast to Europe, the US has been gradually improving over the past 12-18 months as a combination of the Fed's policies and an increase in the global trade of energy resources has helped the world's biggest economy drag itself out of the dire straits of 2022 and steadily slash inflation to manageable levels, while also adding increasing numbers of new non-agricultural jobs. Now, the hope is that this slow-but-steady recovery can continue and inflation be pushed down to target levels.

As analysts at HSBC have stated, the US data largely support this "Goldilocks" scenario, which means the grind lower in the USD could extend, especially if we see fewer data disappointments from outside the US. As illogical as it seems, a weaker dollar is actually exactly what the US economy needs right now. Back in the days of EUR/USD parity in Q3 2022, US imports were prohibitively expensive for the EU. However, at more reasonable levels of 1.10 or above, US gas and other exports are much more attractive. However, after the Fed's latest 0.25% rate hike, the likelihood of a rise up towards 1.15 became even more distant. Following the US regulator's decision, the greenback strengthened against most of the major world currencies.

But what about the euro?

Europe's problems are multiple and well-known. Aside from geopolitical instability and a persistent energy crisis, manufacturing and job growth are also in long-term negative downtrends. And as much as the dollar aims to strengthen, the euro appears to be shifting towards a downward trajectory. It wasn't so long ago — back in November 2022, in fact — that EUR/USD was at parity. Now, the possibility that we could be headed back in the same direction is growing by the day, something that neither the EU nor the US wants at a time when the Old Continent is likely to need to import American natural gas.

After reaching a local high of 1.12 in mid-July, EUR/USD is now down to 1.10. Unfortunately, the ECB is still in a "damned if it does, damned if it doesn't" scenario in which it really needs to cut rates to stimulate economic activity. But it can't do this without tanking the single currency. For this reason, many analysts see an extended spell of weakening to come for the euro. Indeed, in a recent note, Danske Bank predicts that the relative strength of the US economy will weigh on the Fibre in the coming months, forecasting the cross at 1.06/1.03 in 6-12 months. What's more, this is not only a general trend but a specifically euro-centric problem. During the same time that the euro has lost 1.8% against the dollar, sterling has actually managed to gain 2.5%.

Japan bucks the trend

As we touched upon previously, the US dollar was able to gain against many of the world majors after the Federal Reserve announced its much-anticipated rate hike, but one notable exception to this trend was the Japanese yen. It all came down to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) post-meeting comments in which it stated that it would allow for "greater flexibility" in its 10-year government bond yields.

This immediately prompted the 10-year to rise 0.575% for the first time since 2014 and a moderate dip in USDJPY to 139.54. It might not seem like a lot to most Westerners, but in the context of negative interest rates, that's quite a big deal. As the BoJ continues to target 2% inflation, we can most likely expect the yen to remain stable. There are concerns that Japan's ultra-low rates make the yen vulnerable to selling, but this is nothing new, and — as we saw this week — it hasn't stopped the yen from gaining ground on its major competitors. Let's not forget that the yen is also a favoured safe-haven asset, and, at this time of ongoing global uncertainty, this will surely drive interest in the Asian currency.

Trade CFDs on Forex with Libertex

Libertex is a multi-award-winning CFD broker offering trading and investment in a wide range of asset classes, from stocks, commodities and crypto to indices, options and Forex. Libertex offers both long and short positions in a variety of CFDs. With Libertex, you can trade CFDs in EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, so you're always sure to find a currency pair to suit you. For more information or to create an account of your own, visit www.libertex.com today!


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[Libertex]

Chinese stocks surge on bullish Beijing rhetoric

We all remember just how devastating the pandemic was for the entire world's economy. However, as much pain as some countries experienced, no nation was hit worse than China. This was due to a combination of factors, but chief among them are the heavy reliance of Chinese industry on Western custom and, of course, the CCP's ultra-draconian and now infamous "Zero COVID" policy.

But now, after a more than underwhelming three years that has seen the bulk of China's biggest companies on a seemingly unstoppable downward trajectory, there finally appears to be light at the end of the tunnel this week following a much-anticipated meeting of the Chinese Politburo on Monday (31 August 2023). As we head into Q3 of this highly uncertain year for the world, investors and traders everywhere are looking for bargain markets with strong independence and low correlation with US and European markets, and China certainly fits that bill.

What's the news?

The July Politburo meeting is known to set the tone for China's economic policies in the second half of the year. This is why market participants and pundits watched it closely in eager anticipation of firmer policy guidance for faltering growth in the world's second-biggest economy. And the elite of the communist government certainly didn't disappoint this time around. Following significant GDP underperformance in Q2, with figures putting growth at 6.3% instead of the 7.3% forecast, China's top leaders pledged to increase policy support for domestic consumption amid a much slower-than-expected post-pandemic rebound. In the meeting minutes, Xinhua News Agency reported the Politburo as stating that a full post-COVID recovery will take a "wave-like" shape and the process will be "torturous".

Stocks on the up

Despite the long road ahead, the clear sign that the government recognises the scale of the problem and is willing to offer policy support helped to buoy stocks across Asia. The biggest initial gains came on Hong Kong's Hang Seng, where some of China's biggest tech stocks are registered. Alibaba, for instance, shot up 5% the day after the Politburo meeting this week and, as of 3 August, is sitting at HKD 93.15, a monthly gain of 10%. Baidu, on the other hand, made its gains in the days leading up to the meeting and then dipped slightly in the days that followed. BIDU is still up almost 8% to HKD 144.85 since 25 July, so things are still definitely looking positive for the tech giant. Tencent's trajectory was very similar, rising slightly ahead of the meeting before correcting downward again after the meeting itself. It currently stands at 342.80, which marks a 7.5% gain from its 25 July local low.

A look to the future

Traders and investors would be forgiven for thinking that this is the end of the Chinese stock market's stagnation, but we shouldn't forget November of last year. Just like now, we saw a strong uptick across Chinese equities once the CCP announced the end of its harsh anti-COVID restrictions, but the market soon moved back into a sideways channel. We would be wise to heed the Politburo's message that this recovery is likely to be "wave-like".

As we mentioned earlier, China's industry is largely dependent on a healthy economic situation in the US and Europe. With the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and energy crisis, we can't be too optimistic about a rapid rebound for China's manufacturing-heavy economy. That said, domestic consumption and sentiment are definitely trending up, and the multi-year lows of many of the biggest Chinese companies certainly make them attractive buys for long-term investors. There's still a long way to go, and we have to be cautious in our optimism, but the medium-term picture for Chinese stocks will become much clearer by the end of this year.

Trade China-related underlying assets with Libertex

Libertex offers CFDs in a wide variety of asset classes, from stocks, commodities and indices all the way through to forex, options and even crypto. There's something for everyone. And since we offer both long and short positions, you can throw your hat in the ring in whatever direction you think the market is headed. From China, Libertex offers CFDs in all the major tech stocks, including Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent, as well as the China A50 index and iShares China Large-Cap ETF for more diversified traders For more information or to create an account of your own, visit www.libertex.com today!


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[Libertex]

US rating downgrade has far-reaching consequences

The news last week of ratings agency Fitch's decision to strip the US of its AAA credit rating was nothing short of groundbreaking. For over a century, the United States has been a debtor of choice for many major financial institutions on account of its strong, stable, and very large economy. However, Fitch stated in a recent report that: "The rating downgrade of the United States reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance".

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, meanwhile, called the move "arbitrary", asserting that the decision was based on "outdated data". However we analyse the situation, it's undeniable that the US has shown uncharacteristic weakness in recent months. First, we had the collapse of several major banks. Then, there was the June bipartisan agreement to lift the debt limit to $31.4 trillion until January 2025, which almost saw the US default on its existing commitments.

Now, another rating agency, Moody's, has decided to downgrade 10 mid-sized US banks and has placed six banking giants, including Bank of New York Mellon (BK.N), U.S. Bancorp (USB.N), State Street (STT.N) and Truist Financial (TFC.N), on review for potential downgrades. The response from the markets was immediate, with all three major US indices experiencing sell-offs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 0.45% to 35,314.49, the S&P 500 (SPX) lost 0.42% to reach 4,499.38, and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) dropped 0.79% to 13,884.32. While it might not seem like much on the surface, this could well be just the tip of the iceberg. A growing sense of uncertainty and worry is growing in the US market and, by extension, the world. Traders and investors are understandably concerned and keen to grasp what the future might hold for their capital.

Equity release

Apart from the initial dip that is to be expected after such an unprecedented development, the longer-term outlook for US stocks is cloudy at best. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have been up and down all year and have only managed an average of a 6% gain since August 2022. This sideways movement speaks to a larger issue that has prevented equities from gaining any sort of real traction since the post-pandemic crash of late 2021. One of the biggest factors behind this uncertainty has been the above-target inflation that has plagued both the US and the wider world. As traders braced for the latest US inflation numbers on Thursday (10/08), further declines were expected. According to Reuters analysts, they tipped consumer prices to reveal a 3.3% year-on-year increase in July, up from 3% in June. This would be the first acceleration in inflation since June 2022 and could spell trouble ahead for already-wavering equities.

Buried Treasury

Ironically enough, despite the downgrading of the US Treasury's creditworthiness, bond yields have actually been outperforming the expectations of many analysts. Indeed, it seems the worse the prospects of stocks, the better T-note yields look. In fact, data from BofA Global Research showed the one-month correlation between the S&P 500 and the 10-year T-note yield at their most negative since 2000, which means the two assets are once again moving sharply in opposite directions. At the current level of 4.003, the 10-year is actually up almost 10% MoM, which, at first glance, seems illogical given the US's credit rating woes.

However, if we return to rising inflation, the picture becomes much clearer. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's firm stance on future rate cuts — having all but ruled out any reductions this year — the case for government bonds becomes stronger. And with the stock market looking stagnant, T-notes offer a relative safe haven for investor capital over the medium term. What's more, the 2- and 5-year Treasury bills offer even more attractive yields (4.80% and 4.13%, respectively), making them particularly solid buys for risk-off investors looking to ride out the turbulence.

Nowhere to turn

The prospect of holding the bulk of their capital in cash or bonds is an ignominious last resort for many die-hard bulls. In situations such as these, the risk-friendly would typically look to low-correlation regions like China to put their money to work. Unfortunately, though, even these markets have felt the impact of the recent turmoil. Beyond the contagion effect of the US credit downgrade, China's stock market has its own deeply entrenched problems. News that China's consumer prices had slipped into negative territory for the first time in 28 months in July sparked further sell-offs on the already reeling Chinese and Hong Kong equities markets. Mainland Chinese markets closed lower on Wednesday (09/08), with the Shanghai Composite down 0.49% to 3,244.49 at the close of play.

The Shenzhen Component, meanwhile, dropped 0.53% to end the day at 11,039.45, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was just about hovering above the flatline in its final hour of trade. This comes after a torrid year for the flagship Hang Seng, which is already down more than 10% YTD. On the bright side, these multi-year lows do suggest good buys for long-term investors, but it looks like they'll have to be extra patient for significant returns.

Trading different CFDs according to the world situation with Libertex

With Libertex, you can trade a mind-boggling large range of CFDs from a variety of asset classes, including stocks, ETFs and commodities, through to forex, options and even crypto. And because Libertex offers both long and short positions, it doesn't matter where you feel the market is heading. You can always find an underlying asset and direction to suit you. Aside from CFDs on major US indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average, Libertex offers CFD exposure to the US bond market through the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF and Chinese stocks via the iShares China Large Cap ETF, China A50 or Hang Seng. The best part of all is that our CFD model means you don't need to actually own any of these underlying assets in order to work with changes in their price. For more information or to create an account today, visit www.libertex.com


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[Libertex]

Oil and gas are steady, but for how long?

After a relatively mild winter characterised by largely balanced supply and demand, many of us appear to have forgotten the crippling oil prices of last summer. At a time of runaway inflation and with many still reeling from the pandemic, crude prices reached an eye-watering high of $116 a barrel. This sent prices shooting up at the pump and had knock-on effects for a range of related service sectors, such as freight forwarding, passenger transportation, and local delivery, to name but a few. Then, to make matters worse, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe led to record increases in natural gas prices that saw the Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF increase from an already high average price per MWh of €93.16 in August 2021 to an all-time high of €339.42 exactly one year later.

Since the start of this year, however, prices of both these key energy resources have been in relative freefall, with WTI and Brent crude now (as of 29/08) sitting at $80.65 and $85.12 per barrel, respectively. Natural gas has come down even harder, with EU average prices currently at €36.40 per MWh and $2.55 per million BTU for US Henry Hub (down from $8.81 twelve months ago). With OPEC+ remaining steadfast in their production cuts as demand from post-zero-COVID China rises and with what's expected to be a much harsher winter fast approaching, many investors and traders are wondering whether these multi-year lows in the energy markets can be sustained much longer. In this piece, we'll take a broad look at the global oil and gas markets and their prospects into 2024.

Oil slippery

As we've already stated, crude oil of virtually all varieties has been quite steady since the start of the year, with prices hovering around $80 for much of 2023. Now, however, we've started to see some more intentional movement as both Brent and WTI have managed to make gains of almost 12% over the past thirty days. It's no secret that both the Saudis and the Russians have been aiming to support prices in and around current levels, with Riyadh now making voluntary output cuts of 1 million barrels per day for a third consecutive month and Moscow committing to a 300,000 bpd reduction in September.

Furthermore, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) already agreed a broad deal in June to curtail total supplies until the end of 2024. This means that the oil market is likely to be highly sensitive to demand jumps over this entire period, and this is precisely what we've seen with the recent gains following increased demand from China following the end of its zero-COVID policy. Experts from Morgan Stanley "suspect that the likely inventory trajectory anchors the market around $80/bbl, probably in a $75-85/bbl range", and yet the investment bank has still increased its demand forecast from 1.8 million bpd to 2.1 million bpd and does expect the bulls to come to the fore in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024.

Cooking with gas

While oil is certainly a staple commodity, gas is a matter of life or death, especially when winter comes rolling around. And while we might have gotten away with a mild one last year, all the latest data suggest that this year will be bitter. As temperatures plummet and demand for natural gas soars, we simply cannot predict how high prices might go. After all, the geopolitical situation at present means Europe still lacks a stable supply of cheap and plentiful gas. Despite the potential to import from the US, the practicalities of such an undertaking might not only mean higher prices but also supply interruptions.

Though demand has been weaker of late, that's expected to change very soon. First, it was revealed that the new German LNG terminal will face substantial delays in becoming operational just as Norway announced that it is shutting down its Troll gas field for maintenance. And with the major EU reserves at below 90% capacity, this could soon become a problem if the heating season begins earlier than expected. What's more, the supply-side risks don't end in Europe but are, in fact, global. In Australia, Chevron is still in the grip of industrial action that has seen LNG workers down under strike for higher pay. Until an updated proposal is accepted by the unions, this will inevitably magnify any increases in global prices. Given the current cocktail of supply drought and impending demand hikes, Henry Hub Natural Gas prices could rise to above $3.00 in the coming weeks, especially if the current sentiment and the news environment are sustained.

Energise your trading with Libertex

As a CFD broker with a strong reputation built over many years, Libertex has a long history of connecting traders with the financial markets. Because Libertex offers both long and short positions in a varied range of CFDs, you can find an underlying asset class and direction to suit your trading strategy. Beyond favoured instruments like stocks, ETFs and currencies, Libertex also offers CFDs in the full gamut of energy resources, including oil and gas derivatives such as WTI Crude, Light Sweet, Brent, and, of course, Henry Hub Natural Gas. Best of all, Libertex's CFD model means you don't need to physically own any of the underlying instruments you wish to trade and can keep your portfolio in Libertex's multi-award-winning trading app. For more information or to create an account today, visit www.libertex.com


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[Libertex]

European inflation dips as traders and investors look for opportunities

It’s been a tough couple of years for Europe. Beyond the geopolitical uncertainty and energy insecurity that has been tearing the continent apart, the rate of inflation has been solidly above target and has even threatened to enter hyperinflation territory at times. Anyone in the eurozone will surely remember the torrid Q4 2022 when price pressure averaged over 10% and hit an all-time high of 11.5% in October. But after all that, it finally looks as if the worst is behind the Old Continent, despite there being no end in sight to its other problems.

As of July 2023, inflation in the European Union is down to 6.1%, while in the euro area, this figure stands at 5.5%. Naturally, this is still significantly above the usual target of around 2%, but it sure is a massive improvement on double digits. It’s also a sign that the ECB’s more hawkish policy is working as intended and that a September rate increase may be able to be avoided. For context, post-Brexit Britain is struggling with inflation of 6.8% and likely staring at another BoE rate hike of at least 25 basis points in the autumn. Of course, what traders and investors are most interested in is how this is likely to affect their investments. In this article, we’ll be covering the likely impact of this new trend on a range of asset classes, including stocks, commodities and forex.

Equitable deal

After hitting astronomical heights in 2020-2021, stocks experienced a very hard return to reality in 2022. This was followed by a seemingly unending period of stagnation for many tickers. Some of the worst affected were the biggest gainers of the pandemic era. Meme-investor darling GameStop, for example, has gained less than 1% since finding a bottom in January of this year. DocuSign, Salesforce and PayPal tell a similar story. In fact, it’s only extremely competitive and well-funded companies like Tesla and Palantir that have managed to make any sort of return to growth in 2023.

It may sound incredibly impressive that these two tech giants are up an average of 115% at 233.19 and 14.67, respectively, but these prices are actually still a whole 50% below their all-time highs, which leaves much more growth potential to be realised. China is a similar story, with huge names like Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu languishing at multi-year lows, just begging to be snapped up by prospective investors. Meanwhile, the EuroStoxx 600 index is currently just 13% higher than it was over two decades ago in 2000. These current prices in equities the world over represent excellent value for money, and as inflation continues to drop, interest in risk assets like stocks will only increase, potentially leading to a new bull cycle in 2024.

Gold, silver and more

Any old-school investor will tell you that physical assets are what you want during times of high inflation. Some like gold and silver, others like industrial metals like copper and platinum, while others still like the day-to-day staple of oil. However, in today’s changing world, traditional strategies don’t always hold true. The yellow metal, for instance, has been fairly stagnant since the end of the pandemic and now only stands 25% above its pre-COVID levels. After flirting with its all-time high of$2014 per Troy ounce in April of this year, gold is now down around 5% to $1914 at the time of writing (23/08), and it looks as if the famed commodities supercycle is firmly off the cards for now.

It’s much the same for silver, too, which is currently hovering around $23 an ounce, down from $26 at the end of Q2 2023. Copper futures prices are also down around 10% over the same period, a trend that seems to be consistent across both stores of value and industrial metals. Despite the general global uncertainty, it appears that commodities haven’t been able to provide the safe haven many would typically predict. And with inflation, these 10% losses are actually even more pronounced. The real reason behind this phenomenon is the strong dollar, but we’ll get to that in a bit.

Don’t forget Forex

In a context of higher-than-average inflation, traditional wisdom would tell us to steer well clear of fiat currency. However, in this particular instance, that might be a bit of an oversimplification. We’ll all surely remember the historic parity achieved between the US dollar and the euro back in November 2022. Well, since then, things have certainly calmed down, but the greenback still remains much stronger than it was throughout the pandemic period. And since virtually all assets are quoted in US dollars, any gains that are made have to be offset against the value of the US national currency.

However, it’s not in pairs with the USD where the current opportunities lie in the forex market but rather in the cross rates. As we touched upon earlier, the ECB appears to be dealing with inflation much more competently than the BoE just now, and this is clearly reflected in GBP/EUR. Since the start of the month, the pair has risen from 1.15 to 1.17, and it looks as if this trend will continue unless the UK regulator takes truly decisive interest rate action in the autumn. But this is easier said than done amid a cost-of-living crisis in a country with extremely high levels of home ownership, which makes the island nation especially sensitive to any more rate increases. Shrewd investors looking to bide their time before entering riskier asset classes like stocks and crypto could well benefit from holding their cash in GBP/EUR in the meantime.

Trade it all with Libertex

Libertex is a well-respected broker with experience connecting ordinary traders and investors with the world markets.Libertex offers CFDs in a wide range of asset classes from stocks, indices and ETFs such as Tesla, Salesforce, Tencent and the EuroStoxx 50 index, all the way through to commodities and Forex pairs like XAUUSD and EURGBP. With our CFD model you can have short or long positions in all these underlying  assets without having to own the instrument. With Libertex’s multi-award-winning app, you can keep your entire trading portfolio in one location for. For more information or to create an account of your own, visit https://libertex.com/signup


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

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Oil and gas are steady, but for how long?

After a relatively mild winter characterised by largely balanced supply and demand, many of us appear to have forgotten the crippling oil prices of last summer. At a time of runaway inflation and with many still reeling from the pandemic, crude prices reached an eye-watering high of $116 a barrel. This sent prices shooting up at the pump and had knock-on effects for a range of related service sectors, such as freight forwarding, passenger transportation, and local delivery, to name but a few. Then, to make matters worse, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe led to record increases in natural gas prices that saw the Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF increase from an already high average price per MWh of €93.16 in August 2021 to an all-time high of €339.42 exactly one year later.

Since the start of this year, however, prices of both these key energy resources have been in relative freefall, with WTI and Brent crude now (as of 29/08) sitting at $80.65 and $85.12 per barrel, respectively. Natural gas has come down even harder, with EU average prices currently at €36.40 per MWh and $2.55 per million BTU for US Henry Hub (down from $8.81 twelve months ago). With OPEC+ remaining steadfast in their production cuts as demand from post-zero-COVID China rises and with what's expected to be a much harsher winter fast approaching, many investors and traders are wondering whether these multi-year lows in the energy markets can be sustained much longer. In this piece, we'll take a broad look at the global oil and gas markets and their prospects into 2024.

Oil slippery

As we've already stated, crude oil of virtually all varieties has been quite steady since the start of the year, with prices hovering around $80 for much of 2023. Now, however, we've started to see some more intentional movement as both Brent and WTI have managed to make gains of almost 12% over the past thirty days. It's no secret that both the Saudis and the Russians have been aiming to support prices in and around current levels, with Riyadh now making voluntary output cuts of 1 million barrels per day for a third consecutive month and Moscow committing to a 300,000 bpd reduction in September.

Furthermore, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) already agreed a broad deal in June to curtail total supplies until the end of 2024. This means that the oil market is likely to be highly sensitive to demand jumps over this entire period, and this is precisely what we've seen with the recent gains following increased demand from China following the end of its zero-COVID policy. Experts from Morgan Stanley "suspect that the likely inventory trajectory anchors the market around $80/bbl, probably in a $75-85/bbl range", and yet the investment bank has still increased its demand forecast from 1.8 million bpd to 2.1 million bpd and does expect the bulls to come to the fore in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024.

Cooking with gas

While oil is certainly a staple commodity, gas is a matter of life or death, especially when winter comes rolling around. And while we might have gotten away with a mild one last year, all the latest data suggest that this year will be bitter. As temperatures plummet and demand for natural gas soars, we simply cannot predict how high prices might go. After all, the geopolitical situation at present means Europe still lacks a stable supply of cheap and plentiful gas. Despite the potential to import from the US, the practicalities of such an undertaking might not only mean higher prices but also supply interruptions.

Though demand has been weaker of late, that's expected to change very soon. First, it was revealed that the new German LNG terminal will face substantial delays in becoming operational just as Norway announced that it is shutting down its Troll gas field for maintenance. And with the major EU reserves at below 90% capacity, this could soon become a problem if the heating season begins earlier than expected. What's more, the supply-side risks don't end in Europe but are, in fact, global. In Australia, Chevron is still in the grip of industrial action that has seen LNG workers down under strike for higher pay. Until an updated proposal is accepted by the unions, this will inevitably magnify any increases in global prices. Given the current cocktail of supply drought and impending demand hikes, Henry Hub Natural Gas prices could rise to above $3.00 in the coming weeks, especially if the current sentiment and the news environment are sustained.

Energise your trading with Libertex

As a CFD broker with a strong reputation built over many years, Libertex has a long history of connecting traders with the financial markets. Because Libertex offers both long and short positions in a varied range of CFDs, you can find an underlying asset class and direction to suit your trading strategy. Beyond favoured instruments like stocks, ETFs and currencies, Libertex also offers CFDs in the full gamut of energy resources, including oil and gas derivatives such as WTI Crude, Light Sweet, Brent, and, of course, Henry Hub Natural Gas. Best of all, Libertex's CFD model means you don't need to physically own any of the underlying instruments you wish to trade and can keep your portfolio in Libertex's multi-award-winning trading app. For more information or to create an account today, visit www.libertex.com


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[Libertex]

SEC puts spot crypto ETFs on ice again

After a truly awful 2021-2022, Bitcoin has made an impressive comeback in 2023 to gain over 50% since January alone. Naturally, this has brought crypto well and truly back onto the radar of institutional fund managers as they look to add digital assets back into their portfolios after a long hiatus. Indeed, both BTC and Solana have seen particularly powerful inflows in H1 2023 and beyond, and the market looks set to continue its bullish trend to the end of the year. However, one vehicle that would supercharge institutional investment into crypto has been lingering on the horizon for some time and looks to have been pushed back at least another month.

That's right, spot Bitcoin ETFs, which would open the floodgates for a variety of similar products for the full gamut of cryptocurrencies, won't be approved until late October at the earliest following the SEC's move to postpone its decision on exchange-traded fund applications filed earlier this year by firms including BlackRock, WisdomTree, Invesco Galaxy, Wise Origin, VanEck and Valkyrie Digital Assets.

Apart from institutional investment, it is also believed that such ETF instruments will drive adoption from retail investors who don't feel comfortable technically with buying and selling physical crypto. So, why the delay, what is the timeline for the approval of these groundbreaking instruments, and more importantly, what will likely be their effect on the wider digital assets market?

Are we there yet?

For those who haven't been following the space especially closely, these attempts to have Bitcoin ETFs listed have become a never-ending saga of sorts. From when it first receives an application, the SEC has a total of 240 days to make a final decision to approve or reject. In the past, the regulator's staff have often taken advantage of every possible comment and review period to delay making their final decision until those 240 days have elapsed. One of the first firms to make an application was the eminent Cathy Wood's Ark Invest Group, which had originally believed that its initiative would be rewarded by the US regulator.

However, several commenters have pointed out that the SEC's decision to make full use of its 240-day review period is to ensure that no single provider has a significant advantage over its competitors, opening that the regulator will likely approve all applications at the same time to avoid a monopoly or oligarchy arising in the space. If it does happen that all of these funds are launched in Q4 2023, we can expect the crypto market to respond in a big way as capital flows rapidly into Bitcoin.

Never underestimate crypto

If the past 5-10 years of boom-and-bust cycles have taught us anything, it's that digital currencies — and Bitcoin in particular — can do things many of us thought impossible. Now, as a spot Bitcoin ETF looms, it appears as if many are not giving this huge development the respect it deserves. In fact, analysts from crypto research firm K33 (formerly Arcane Research) have said that the ability of such an approval to drive up BTC prices significantly is currently being massively underestimated by the market. K33 senior analyst Veste Lunde has stated that, while Bitcoin had all but given up its gains amid Grayscale's legal victory over the SEC, the approval of any spot Bitcoin ETF would "attract enormous inflows" and significantly increase buying pressure across the cryptocurrency market.

On the contrary, if the applications are rejected, they predict the impact on prices to be "negligible". And as the next BTC halving approaches in early 2024, it's hard to see how BTC can fail to grow over the longer term. Meanwhile, the K33 team believes that the biggest gainer in the medium term will be Ethereum, with "strong momentum" predicted following its futures-based ETF listing. ETH is already up 35% YTD, and the analysts suggest these gains could accelerate in Q4.

Trade crypto CFDs with Libertex

Until spot cryptocurrency ETFs become a reality, you can potentially achieve the same results with crypto CFD trading with Libertex. There's no need to own the physical coins; simply pick your underlying digital asset and close your position when at your chosen price level. Because Libertex offers both long and short CFD positions in a range of asset classes, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, you can find something you'd like to trade in the direction that suits you.

But Libertex's offering doesn't stop there. We can provide CFDs on forex, commodities and stocks, all the way through to indices, ETFs and even stock options. And thanks to Libertex's multi-award-winning app, you can store your entire portfolio in one accessible and secure location. For more information about Libertex, visit www.libertex.com, where you can create your own account today.


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[Libertex]

Investors look to the CPI report for guidance

The year so far has been a relatively good one for US equities, with the US big three indices of the Nasdaq 100 (+40.76%), S&P 500 (16.68%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+4.56%) all up significantly YTD. This comes after a fiendishly devastating 2022 that saw US tech stocks especially hard hit.

The good performance is almost illogical given the bleak situation around the world, with geopolitical instability, rising price pressure, and energy shortages abounding. Once again, the market reminds us just how unpredictable it can be. As always, however, macroeconomics will remain a leading factor in any analysis of the medium-to-long-term performance of key asset classes, including stocks and indices.

And as the world braced for the key release of the latest US inflation data — a metric that will undoubtedly help to guide Fed policy on interest rates — on 13 September 2023, investors and traders were looking for any hint as to where the market is headed in Q4 2023. Ahead of the release, stocks corrected slightly downwards while oil managed to cement its recent gains in response to the impending publication, but what does this mean is expected, and how will it affect equities and other key instruments?

Inflation not out of air yet

The latest Consumer Price Index report revealed that, far from melting away, inflation in August was reported at 4.3% year-over-year, with elevated energy prices threatening to keep headline inflation at 3.7% or above for the foreseeable future. This was slightly worse than the predicted level of 3.6%, but it's the increases in core expenses like petrol (+10.6%) and rent (+0.5%) that make the situation worse.

What's more, energy costs — and natural gas, in particular — are only going to increase further as the winter sets in. And this winter is tipped to be a cold one. If these numbers show anything, it's that we're unlikely to reach the Fed's target inflation rate by Christmas, at least not organically. That means that the US regulator could still be forced to intervene with additional rate hikes, which will push consumer finance rates higher and thus reduce ordinary people's spare income for investment.

This impact will be further exacerbated by the higher central heating and petrol prices, leaving very little left over at the end of the month. As we touched upon earlier, US stocks had already dipped overnight in the futures market, with the S&P 500 (.SPX) falling 0.6% and the Nasdaq losing 1%. This would suggest that the smart money was always banking on these CPI figures coming out worse than expected. However, this did not play out to significant declines during regular trading on Wednesday, which could be a positive sign for the longer term.

Essential oils

Oil is holding on to its recent gains and shaping up for further rises in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. We've already seen pump prices increase nearly 10% this month, and with crude still rising, who knows where it will end. Industrial production is up in China and India, and to sustain this activity, fuel is required. In fact, China's state-owned energy giant Sinopec recently issued a tender for as many as 25 LNG cargoes between October 2023 and December 2024. Despite the green revolution, internal combustion engine vehicles are still by far the most numerous across Europe and the US, and many people drive more in winter to avoid the cold.

In light of this expected demand hike, the effects of the OPEC+ production cuts are going to be even more pronounced. We must remember that Saudi Arabia and Russia recently agreed to extend their respective 1 million and 300,000 bpd cuts to the end of 2023. With Brent already above $90 a barrel for the first time in almost a year, we could be headed for another energy crunch unless supply-side pressure eases.

Natural gas, on the other hand, is at a multi-year low and a veritable million miles away from the prices we saw in late 2022. Given the geopolitical instability in Europe and the colder-than-usual winter predicted ahead, demand is set to skyrocket in the winter. Without any stable gas supply through traditional routes, LNG is likely still to be a huge part of the Old Continent's energy mix, so the Henry Hub could be one to watch in the coming months.

Diversify yourself with Libertex

Since none of us truly know what's going to happen in the markets, it's always best to cover as many bases as possible. However, holding multiple brokerage accounts and purchasing commodities like gold, oil and gas can be a serious headache for the ordinary investor.

That's what makes Libertex's CFD model so attractive. With them, you can hold a varied CFD portfolio of everything from stocks, forex, crypto and, of course, commodities in one comfortable location. You also don't need to actually own the underlying assets. What's more, Libertex can offer leveraged trading on both long and short positions on a variety of CFDs, including major indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average through to energy commodities like Brent, WTI, Light Sweet and the Henry Hub.

With experience spanning two decades, Libertex has a long history of connecting ordinary traders and investors with the financial markets, all with market-leading terms and conditions. For more information about Libertex and the range of products it can offer you, visit www.libertex.com


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[Libertex]

Libertex wins "Best Trading Experience" at Ultimate Fintech Awards

Libertex is delighted to have received the "Best Trading Experience" award at this year's Ultimate Fintech Awards during the closing ceremony of the iFX Expo, which took place in Limassol, Cyprus. The accolade was presented after Libertex was nominated in multiple, varied categories.

About the world-renowned event

iFX EXPO is one of the world's largest financial B2B expos. For more than a decade, it's been bringing together professionals in online trading, fintech and financial services from across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East and honouring the industry's standout businesses. The Cyprus iFX EXPO event is Europe's most talked-about industry meetup of the year, offering unlimited opportunities for attendees to connect with C-level executives from the most prominent international companies, as well as providing engaging content from inspiring industry experts. The esteemed Ultimate Fintech Awards, which take place as part of iFX EXPO, recognise industry-leading brands in the online trading and fintech space with the aim of providing traders and businesses with industry benchmarks of the best companies in it.

Words from Libertex Group CMO, Marios Chailis

Commenting on this prestigious recognition, Libertex Group Chief Marketing Officer Marios Chailis had this to say: "It's always a great feeling when our hard work is recognised in the form of an award, but the fact that this latest one was voted on by our industry colleagues makes the honour all the more special. To receive such a prestigious and important honour, such as the "Best Trading Experience", is proof of the success of our efforts to ensure our clients find trading with us as enjoyable as possible. Achieving a goal like this takes dedication, and it's a journey that never really ends, but we are committed to keep doing all we can to ensure that Libertex traders and investors have the best trading experience imaginable."

Libertex has always cared about your trading experience

For Libertex, the meaning of trading experience goes far beyond simple terms and conditions, though we work to stay ahead of the competition in this area, too. As far as Libertex is concerned, customer experience involves more intangible qualities like a sense of belonging and loyalty. This all ties in with our "Trade For More" philosophy, which we leverage through initiatives such as our sponsorship deals with top football clubs like FC Bayern. As we head towards the end of 2023, we remain committed to continuing to put our clients and their overall experience with us first and foremost.

[Libertex]

Crypto looking up as positive inflows return

Following a year of ups and downs for digital assets – amid regulatory uncertainty, increasing energy prices and investor hesitancy – things are finally looking up for cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin and Ethereum have both gained a whopping 38% and 65% YTD, those metrics don’t really tell the full story. Most of these gains came in a short burst of growth during the first few weeks of 2023, which famously followed a monster crash of almost 80% spanning from late 2021 throughout the entirety of 2022. Since March 2023, prices have been literally stagnant across a majority of digital currencies. But now, after six consecutive weeks of outflows, crypto is finally back in the game with $21 million of inflows recorded this week.

That said, however, it’s not all smiles for every digital currency, and there are still some definite winners and losers. Market leader Bitcoin recorded an impressive $20 million in inflows, while short BTC saw outflows of $1.5 million ($85 million since April). Major altcoin and potential Ethereum killer Solana had quite a good week, too, recording $5 million in net inflows and hitting a total value locked (TVL) of $338.8 million, its highest level this year.

Ethereum, on the other hand, continued its losing streak to post outflows of $1.5 million despite the buzz around a potential spot ETF product. As we enter Q4, investors want to know what the key factors will be for crypto and where we can expect prices to move.

Spot the difference

One of the biggest stories in the digital assets space this summer has been the SEC and its decision to approve multiple applications for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs from big names like Ark Invest, Blackrock and Invesco. The regulator has already taken full advantage of each possible comment and review period to delay making their final decision until their statutory 240-day response period is up. Commenters have suggested that this is to ensure no provider has an undue advantage over any other provider and that they will all likely be approved at once.

However, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has suggested an encouraging signal that the SEC could move to approve these earlier than the 10 January 2024 deadline. This is the fact that the regulator has sent comments to address the investment firms’ S-1 filings (related to plumbing, legal, and other technicalities). After all, VanEck’s Ethereum ETF is set to launch on the CBOE, though this has failed to ignite interest in the coin as expected. Bitcoin is a different animal altogether, though. Factors such as huge institutional demand, a proven track record, and trailblazer status coupled, of course, with its anti-inflationary model, make it much more likely to take off as an investment vehicle among more traditional investors.

Alt is the new black

Beyond the uptick in interest in BTC expected from institutions and more traditional investors, early adopters and true crypto aficionados are very much focusing their sights on the altcoin space for interesting and highly capable projects with good growth potential. With these savvy and prospective investors, functionality is everything. It’s also in this part of the market where we can expect to see the biggest swings in the coming months.

Solana, for instance, is already taking huge market share away from Ethereum and is slowly but surely laying the foundations to become the smart contract coin of choice. As we already mentioned, SOL reached a record TLV this past week and has enjoyed vigorous price growth over recent weeks. It’s currently trading in a horizontal range between $18 and $32 and sits comfortably at $23.14 at the time of writing on 5 October 2023. Since the beginning of the year, however, it has more than doubled in value to cast a shadow over the gains made by ETH and even BTC.

Another functional coin that is turning heads right now is Chainlink. In fact, in the past month alone, this smart contract darling is up 29.15% and looks set to make further gains before the year is up. The evidence would seem to suggest that two markets are now emerging – or rather, the bigger, more established projects like Bitcoin and Ethereum are being absorbed into the broader financial market system. As this trend deepens, the altcoin space will be fertile ground to grow for digital assets with real-world applications.

Trade crypto and more CFDs with Libertex

Libertex (https://libertex.com/) is a trading platform with many years of experience connecting ordinary traders and investors with the financial markets. Libertex has an extensive offering of CFD products from numerous asset classes, including stocks, ETFs and energy, through to metals, options and, of course, crypto. The best thing about Libertex’s CFD model is that it allows you to trade long or short instantaneously without the need to physically hold any of the underlying instruments.

In addition to some of the biggest cryptocurrencies by market cap, such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), Libertex also offers CFDs in altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Chainlink (LINK). In fact, Libertex has over 120 different digital assets available to trade as CFDs, with market-leading conditions and spreads.


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79.1% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[Libertex]

Oil and gas volatile as geopolitical instability spreads

Despite the green revolution, oil and gas are still staple commodities the world over. When their prices move, it affects ordinary people and investors alike. After a manic 2022 in the wake of rising tensions in Eastern Europe that saw Brent oil shoot up to near ten-year highs above $125 a barrel, prices eventually normalised back down below $80 per barrel. At the same time, spot natural gas prices on the open market exploded over 1000% as European Dutch gas prices increased from an average of less than €20 per MWh to a high of €338.54 in August 2022 before gradually dipping back down to around €30 per MWh this past summer.

Now, however, the price appears to have entered a new uptrend amid Russian and Saudi production cuts coupled with an uptick in political instability in the Middle East. And though crude prices have corrected downwards slightly since then, there is a clear dynamic towards the upside. Meanwhile, the Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF is up over 50% since then to €45 per MWh at the time of writing on 10 October 2023, having gained over 15% in the last month alone. As the heating season approaches, consumers and market participants alike are bracing for further price hikes both in oil and natural gas on typical demand-driven factors. If, however, we see an escalation in the ongoing conflict, then prices could be even further impacted.

OPEC+ in the spotlight again

In the wake of last year’s price hikes, all eyes have been on OPEC and its associated nations, with the cartel having huge control over oil price dynamics. It has been widely noted that two of the biggest producing nations — Russia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia — have committed to voluntary production cuts of 300,000 and 1 million barrels per day, respectively. These pledges have now been extended to 2024, and with demand expected to increase due to various factors, from increased industrial output in China to seasonal pressures, this artificial reduction of supply is only going to exacerbate any organic upward price movement.

In its latest forecast report, OPEC has raised its long-term demand outlook to 116 million bpd by 2045, which would require $14 trillion worth of investments to satisfy. Clearly, this means that the cartel sees a significant future for the energy resource and will do everything it can to maintain high prices in order to see a return on this sizable capital outlay. In the short term, it’s hard to predict where prices are headed. That said, OPEC seems intent on doing all it can to keep crude prices in the $80-100 range, which would make premium varieties, such as Brent, WTI and Light Sweet, all good value for longer-perspective investors at their present prices of $86.20, $84.28 and $84.25, respectively.

What about Washington?

The American Petroleum Institute noted that US crude oil stockpiles swelled by about 12.9 million barrels this week, which was much higher than the 500,000 barrel increase predicted by a poll of Reuters analysts. This has helped to ease some of the spiking effects brought about by the troubles in Israel and production cuts elsewhere. But, in addition to being a significant oil and gas producer in its own right, as the world’s leading superpower, the US has major influence on the energy market beyond simple supply and demand flows.

When looking to the long term, its environmental policy is liable to have an immeSPAM BANble global impact on demand for fossil fuels. As we head into the 2024 US Presidential Election, we find ourselves at a policy crossroads. Incumbent Joe Biden is very much committed to the net-zero agenda, while his major rival, Donald Trump, is much more laissez-faire in terms of environmental concerns.

Trump infamously took the US out of the UN Paris climate agreement and is now pledging to remove clean water and air pollution protections while fast-tracking environmental reviews of dozens of major energy and infrastructure projects, such as drilling and fuel pipelines. Biden, on the other hand, made his first acts in office back in 2021 to rejoin the Paris climate agreement and revoke permits for the Keystone Pipeline. Since then, he has invested billions in green infrastructure and renewable energy and set a goal for the US to be net zero by 2050. Clearly, then, oil’s fortunes from 2024-2028 will depend largely on who wins the presidential election, and investors would do well to watch the polls closely ahead of any major position changes.

Trade oil and more CFDs with Libertex

As a CFD broker with many years of experience connecting ordinary retail traders and investors with the financial markets, Libertex is a name you can rely on for competitive terms and conditions. Libertex’s CFD model allows you to trade long or short with no need to own the physical underlying instrument.

Libertex offers CFDs from a wide range of asset classes such as stocks, commodities, forex, crypto and, of course, oil and gas. Our platform allows you to open long or short positions in crude oil CFDs like Brent, WTI, and Light Sweet, as well as the US flagship natural gas fund, the Henry Hub. And best of all, you can keep your entire diverse portfolio in one place: the multi-award-winning Libertex trading app (https://libertex.com/).


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79.1% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

[Libertex]

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[Libertex]

Crypto surges once more as ETF finish line comes into sight

As any cryptocurrency investor or trader will tell you, it's been somewhat of a rollercoaster ride for Bitcoin and other digital currencies over the past couple of years. After a prolific rise, the bubble burst in late 2021. From a high of $64,400, Bitcoin crashed hard to a lowly $15,760 by November 2022. After the latest in a series of huge boom-bust cycles, it was understandable that many were wary to call a new bull market in digital assets, but since Bitcoin reached gains of over 100% in less than 12 months this Monday (23/10), sceptics everywhere finally began to believe that the crypto thaw was underway. Then, in the space of just a day, the original cryptocurrency shot up a full 10%, enough to melt the heart of even the biggest naysayer.

And although prices have corrected slightly since then, this week has truly been a watershed moment. Typically amongst some of the most conservative crypto investors, institutions recorded a fourth consecutive week of net inflows, with the latest figures putting their total weekly cash invested at $66 million. As usual, the factors behind the decisive market movement are varied and numerous, but chief amongst them right now has to be the imminent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission and coming shifts in the regulatory framework at large. As we head into Q4, crypto traders and investors are understandably keen to see where the market is headed. In this piece, we'll look at these two factors and try to draw conclusions for the rest of the year and beyond.

X marks the spot

After much discussion and delay, it appears that the long-awaited arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs will soon be upon us. Indeed, it transpired this week that Blackrock had listed its prospective product on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation database under the ticker $IBTC. But Blackrock is by far from the only horse in the race, with similar applications under review from Ark Invest, Invesco, and crypto fund trailblazer Grayscale, whose trust model has its downsides that full security status would mitigate.

After kicking the can down the road as long as is legally possible, the end of the SEC's 240-day review period is fast approaching. The most likely scenario, according to Volatility Shares Chief Investment Officer Stuart Barton, is that multiple products will be approved all at the same time so as to avoid giving one provider any undue advantage over its competitors. And while nothing is yet set in stone, the landmark overturning of the SEC's original ruling to deny Grayscale its spot ETF by a three-judge panel for the DC Court of Appeals in August has been taken by many market participants as a sign of a key sea change.

This dynamic, coupled with the institutional investment surge already noted, looks as if Bitcoin could be headed for a new bull market in the weeks and months ahead. As Woo Network's Jack Tan wrote in a recent note, "Bitcoin is in an 'anti-gravity' phase and could hit $75,000 in the coming months," going on to add that "the sudden spike is just a preview of what will happen if ETFs actually get approved."

Regulators gonna regulate

For many years, the cryptocurrency market was able to avoid regulation as a kind of outcrop of the financial markets populated exclusively by tech aficionados and early adopters. However, starting with the initial big boom of 2017 and intensifying with each subsequent bull cycle, digital currencies (Bitcoin especially) have garnered more and more attention from regulators the world over. The problem remains the lack of harmonisation globally, with huge variations in the way cryptocurrencies are treated.

For instance, in places like Switzerland and Singapore, crypto innovation is actively encouraged, and there is a clear legal framework for investors and businesses to operate within. Meanwhile, we also have countries like China that have cracked down on cryptocurrency activity, outlawing ICOs and cryptocurrency exchanges altogether. Even within the US, the lack of an unequivocal federal line means that there is huge legal variation between individual states. The SEC, however, cannot seem to reach a consensus on whether tokens and coins can be considered securities and has changed its positions several times since the 2017 DAO report was released.

Beyond security status, investors and traders are most interested in taxation and it appears that nationwide clarity is finally coming to the US on this particular matter. The IRS has finally released guidelines on how to calculate and report bitcoin gains and losses, and people must now declare their cryptocurrency holdings and transactions on their annual returns. Exchanges are also being required to implement strict KYC and AML checks on their depositors, and it is hoped that once both the tax and legal compliance issues are ironed out, even more institutions and funds will get on board with BTC, which will most likely result in further gains.

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