How soon will SBF get released from prison?

[philipma1957]

I picked 2030-2039

[robelneo]

I picked 2030-2039

I picked

2040-2048 serves most of the time

anything less than that will cause uproar so they balance the jail terms, of course, money will be involved here while he is serving his jail term he will enjoy his jail term because he will be treated a special guy while his lawyers will work on to shorten his jail term.

[Ambatman]

If we going by probability and taking some things into consideration
Then it would be something like
Dying in jail 15%
2030 20%
2030-2039 50%
2040-2048 20%
2049 5%

[Lucius]

I pick -> 2030-2039 gets out on good behavior

I will repeat my opinion from another topic, which is that I do not think that he will be in prison for more than 2/3 of his sentence, which is about 15 years. That is why I have already written several times that the sentence is simply too small to be effective considering that it is 100% certain that he will not spend all 25 years in prison.

Regardless of the fact that information appears that most of the money has been found (which I sincerely doubt), such punishments send the wrong message to all those who might try something similar.

[LogitechMouse]

I want to pick "2030-2039 gets out on good behavior", but my hate on Scam-Bankrupt Fraud took me to choose "Never as he will die in prison".
TBH, I also think that he will get out sooner than we expected because of "good behavior". This is also the reason why I find the 25 years too small considering that the initial sentence for him was around 100+ years.

Well, I don't believe that he will serve the full 25 years like what others are thinking. He might go out in jail earlier than we expected, but his reputation will never be fixed that's for sure. As long as investors who lost their money investing into his project gets paid then I guess all is good. The trauma though is the problem. :X

[Z-tight]

2030-2039 seems most likely to me, that he gets out on good behaviour. The sentencing already favored sbf and i think there is more 'favors' to come. Even if he spends the 25 years in prison, he would still come out in his late 50's, which isn't too bad for him considering the crimes he committed.

However, i don't think sbf is going to stay in jail for all 25 years, his parents influence will play a huge part in it, 12-15 years is probably the maximum time he may spend in jail.

[notblox1]

My prediction is that news will report he died in prison with some stranger cause of death.
I dont expect to see him being released under his real name, and I dont think he can survive for long time in any US prison.
Autism complain didnt work well for him 

[Captain Corporate]

Maybe it is the skeptic in me, but I feel like he won't serve that much. I am not sure about the American law and how quickly he will be set on parole, but legally whatever is the quickest way, he will do that. They will put him in house jail for a while if they have to, parole and just make him wear an ankle watch if they have to, all of that will happen no matter what and he will just find a way to get out. So while I did say 2030 or earlier, my "real" answer is that whatever legal way he could get out the quickest, he will get out that way without a doubt. Some lawyer could enlighten the situation regarding that.

[philipma1957]

If we going by probability and taking some things into consideration
Then it would be something like
Dying in jail 15%
2030 20%
2030-2039 50%
2040-2048 20%
2049 5%

good estimates.  I think he could die as a lot of people with power hate him but I think most likely he gets released between 2030-2039.

[hugeblack]

It will depend on how he behaves during the first 5 years. If he manages to pass the first 5 years, he will be released before 2035, but through his attempt to make the period seem shorter, I think he will make a mistake that will make the possibility of sympathy for him less, and therefore I will choose 2049.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Well, since we are speculating I have chosen 2030 or earlier but I would bet on a move similar to that of a Spanish politician locked up for corruption, who got a judge to release him because he was allegedly about to die of terminal cancer, and he is still alive and kicking. Since he had contacts in the media he managed when the judge was reluctant to release him to get a lot of talk about it and the alleged inhumanity of the judge in not wanting to release the poor guy who was about to die.

That was five years ago. I wouldn't be surprised if SBF made a move like that.

[ABCbits]

I picked 2030-2039

I also pick same time range. Good behavior and help from his parents could easily reduce half of his prison time. People who're not FTX victim probably will forget about FTX and SBF in next decade, which makes it's easier to do that. I expect he won't get harassed or attacked by other criminal either.

[Zed0X]

Maybe taking 10 years from the 25 years maximum prison time is the best he could get. I think the judge already did him a favor by cutting in half what the prosecutors are asking and that's probably due to outside influence. Still, my pick is 2040 to 2048. If I can be more specific, he'll be released on his 50th birthday.

Edit:
So I tried searching for the possible time reduction after what I said above:
1. For good behavior, 15% automatic reduction (45 months)
2. For accruing Earned Time Credits (ETC), he'll reduced about 12 more months

That's approximately 57 months and adding the time he already spent in jail (7 1/2 months), the total reduction would be around 64 1/2 months. He'll be serving around 18 to 19 years prison time.

[Rruchi man]

I picked 2030-2039

That was my pick too, his legal team will not let the case go, they will still be making sure that they look for legal loopholes that they can exploit to make him come out of prison even before the sentence is complete. He may serve for 10years, but the complete 25years is very unlikely.

Just as his arrest and sentencing made huge headline in the news, his release will also make a huge headline.

[bitbit97]

I have selected «2040-2048 serves most of the time», but I think he will serve all of his 25 years. Prosecutor asked for more, for 40-50 years, so his 25 years are already a light sentence. 25 years is a very long period. SBF has plenty of time to do something wrong, to fail to release early. Not to mention that he still does not accept his guilt. No doubt that his parents will try to get him out from the jail quicker, but amazingly, so far they do little about it. I predict that he will spend 20+ years out of his 25 year sentence.