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(https://i.ibb.co/2PVTChP/tred.jpg) (https://ibb.co/0Z4x62Z)
Above is the chart from Glassnode (https://glassnode.com/) for Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohorts. The market is in a most shaking period after some months. If you are holding Bitcoin and missed chance to take profit nearly $50,000, don't feel bad.
Because
- Halving is only three months ahead
- Big whales have been accumulating bitcoin for their games.
The point of this thread is the 10+k Cohort just started their accumulation. See the top blue row in the chart and now we have three top rows (whales) are accumulating Bitcoin after long time of distribution.
Accumulating more bitcoins like whales or if you can not do accumulation, just hold and wait for a bull run.
Note:
- It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5482639.0)
- I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
- I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.
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Just learned the new term "Cohort" I first read this term when I was taking the SEO course of Cohort 4 and Cohort 5, I still did not understand what its meaning was back then but I guess it means entities or some seniority level. Like in crypto, you used it to indicate whales. I am being off-topic here but I thought I should mention it.
Thanks for the encouragement, because I just saw my portfolio today and realized that I was making some good profit and I should have booked some seed profit when the BTC came near $48k but at that time I was so bullish that I thought BTC would cross $50k and make it support for future but BTC had other plans.
Now I don't have any other option but to hold onto what I have. BTW, Is there any way to time the market correctly, an easy way for a noob like me.
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Yeah, I feel that some people who were targeting to sell their Bitcoin at $50k would be feeling bad right now because if they had thought that Bitcoin was going to drop to $38,600, they definitely would have sold at $47k just about two weeks ago. Just a few days ago, I was actually saying that Bitcoin will never drop below $40,000. Thank God I didn't place a bet on it; if not, I would have lost. The market is just so unpredictable, but I know that with the sharp dip in the market, when the bull comes too, it will just be a sudden rise.
Just the way these whales are accumulating more Bitcoin into their portfolios, that's also how we should keep accumulating because during the bull market, the price will definitely cross the last all-time high.
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BTW, Is there any way to time the market correctly, an easy way for a noob like me.
You can not time the market correctly, I can't and many people can not.
By the way, read another topic that can be helpful for you.
- Are you ready for the Bitcoin bull market? What's your plan? Some ideas for you (https://www.altcoinstalks.com/index.php?topic=316364.0)
Yeah, I feel that some people who were targeting to sell their Bitcoin at $50k would be feeling bad right now
They must experience more and already learned one lesson. Don't set an exact price to take profit, they must be flexible with the market status and if they planned to take profit at $50k, they must see $49k is good enough.
An update.
The 10k+ cohort continues to accumulate bitcoins and it's good signal for preparation of a big bull market. Notice on the contrast, whales are returning to accumulation while smaller investors are taking profit.
(https://i.ibb.co/BLpmfk5/heatmap29012024.jpg)
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Good news, this is expected to be done by whales before the halving approach as this is a golden opportunity for whales to make huge profits.
This important chart indicates two basic points:
Firstly accumulating these large amounts only about three months before the halving means that the whales are preparing for the big rally before their games even begin, this means that we will have a big bull season after the halving. Maybe we'll go over 100 k$.
Second: Accumulating these quantities will lead to an increase in demand and a decrease in supply over time, and this will naturally lead to an increase in the price, so this is a great opportunity for those who missed out on buying before it is too late.
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It is true that Bitcoin is in a shaky moment right now, as we can see the halving is getting closer, but we still don't know where the price will go. If we look at the weekly chart, the price failed to cross the supply zone; instead, it formed long wicks, indicating that sellers are in control of the market. So it's highly probable that the price will make a significant retracement to the downside since not only is supply more than demand, but there are other imbalances below that might force the price to reverse before continuing to rise.
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Good news, this is expected to be done by whales before the halving approach as this is a golden opportunity for whales to make huge profits.
This important chart indicates two basic points:
Firstly accumulating these large amounts only about three months before the halving means that the whales are preparing for the big rally before their games even begin, this means that we will have a big bull season after the halving. Maybe we'll go over 100 k$.
Second: Accumulating these quantities will lead to an increase in demand and a decrease in supply over time, and this will naturally lead to an increase in the price, so this is a great opportunity for those who missed out on buying before it is too late.
I have to points to say.
- Whales have big capital and they have to gradually, slowly accumulate bitcoin and distribute bitcoin when they taking profit. They are just started so we have a long time ahead and best in this market cycle has yet come with us.
- As small investors, we have an advantage against whales. We can easily and quickly enter and exit the market than whales. So if we can do similar like whales, we can do it better than them. We don't need months to take profit like whales and the challenge is only how we accumulate bitcoins and hold our bitcoins.
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Glassnode has good on-chain analysis, but sometimes there is selectivity in displaying data, which may lead to bad investment results. Accumulating live does not mean that the price will rise in the coming months. In 2019 and 2020, Grayscale was buying almost all the supply of Bitcoin outside trading platforms, and yet the price did not rise. Only after a year, so we should not expect a major change in the price until next June.
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Glassnode has good on-chain analysis, but sometimes there is selectivity in displaying data, which may lead to bad investment results.
There is no free lunch so they only give some of their indicators as open access. For advanced ones, you must have Premium account to get access.
With free lunch, you only receive delayed information through their weekly reports.
Accumulating live does not mean that the price will rise in the coming months. In 2019 and 2020, Grayscale was buying almost all the supply of Bitcoin outside trading platforms, and yet the price did not rise. Only after a year, so we should not expect a major change in the price until next June.
Price reacts quickly with news, fud but with actual meaningful on-chain movements, it takes time to show effects on the market. Because people don't see it or if they see it, they just don't believe it will cause some big movements in price on the market. Majority of the market are not winners so they usually do oppositely to what on chain signals show and how market actually moves.
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There is no free lunch so they only give some of their indicators as open access. For advanced ones, you must have Premium account to get access.
Even the paid versions do not mean that they will enhance the quality of your technical analysis. I follow the analysis of many accounts that use the Premium subscription as the basis for their predictive models and analyze the results, but the accuracy of the technical analysis is better than onchain. I do not blame Glassnode here, but I see that they are trying to promote their services as if they will benefit traders, which is not true, or at least compared to technical analysis.
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Above is the chart from Glassnode (https://glassnode.com/) for Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohorts. The market is in a most shaking period after some months. If you are holding Bitcoin and missed chance to take profit nearly $50,000, don't feel bad.
Actually, those who have been in this field for a long time and have experienced what Bitcoin is will never feel bad. Because that's the beauty of Bitcoin investment. If you lose one opportunity, if you have the patience and right mindset to wait for the right time to come again, you will be in profit.
Bitcoin gives us such opportunities that it is almost the perfect solution for investment choice.
Here we are presented with another great opportunity to fill our bag more before the halving. Hopefully, we will see more opportunities like this with Bitcoin in the future. Because the history tells us that it will continue to happen.
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Even the paid versions do not mean that they will enhance the quality of your technical analysis. I follow the analysis of many accounts that use the Premium subscription as the basis for their predictive models and analyze the results, but the accuracy of the technical analysis is better than onchain. I do not blame Glassnode here, but I see that they are trying to promote their services as if they will benefit traders, which is not true, or at least compared to technical analysis.
Do you know that whales need very long time to prepare and execute their plans (manipulations) so on-chain analysis is only for long term investors.
When long term investors see some early signals (on-chain), they will smell what whales are planning to do. It's when they will re-draft their plans more carefully and with more details in the meantime of waiting for some more confirmations from on-chain analysis. It means, if you are not whales, you only can follow whales if you can smell what whales are planning to do.
Technical analysis?
You can not forecast the market correctly with technical analysis, just like with on-chain analysis. Think wider, as a long term investor, and focus on managing your own life finance and investment capital.
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You can not time the market correctly, I can't and many people can not.
By the way, read another topic that can be helpful for you.
- Are you ready for the Bitcoin bull market? What's your plan? Some ideas for you (https://www.altcoinstalks.com/index.php?topic=316364.0)
Thanks for sharing this topic, it was deeply buried in the section that's why I did not come to read it, I suggest, this topic of yours (the one you mentioned above) will suit better in the trading section, or in the help section.
Talking about judging the market, I do know we can't judge the market 100% but we can make some plans or strategies to minimize the loss and increase the profit and that will do the work of timing the market. I read your mentioned topic and it was refreshing because the things were already in my mind but I was like not giving any importance to them. But now I realize the importance of a plan.
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Planning is really needed for whales. Usually, they will take advantage of some bad news or good news to move the price of Bitcoin on the exchange. They know that the point of movement of cryptocurrency prices is at the price of Bitcoin; when the price of Bitcoin rises, it will make the prices of other altcoins also rise, and vice versa, when the Bitcoin price collapses, the prices of other altcoins will collapse.
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I suggest add the link that directly leads us to the cohort page. And your topic is really great to give hopes to lose hearts like mine. I did not lose much but when I see the opportunity to book profit which I did not booked and calculate the total profit I would have made, I got sad and my heart says to me now next time when you see such situation do no hesitate and book the seed profit. But one side of my mind is saying to me that you should not fall for fear of missing out sentiment and should remain patience.
I do have my profit booking plan ready and that is DCA because in my opinion this is still the right time to accumulate as much as you can, but only if you wants to hold for 1 or 2 years, because current state of market is so unpredictable and you can't say if market will touch its $30k or $35k support or not, but the chances of it touching are high. So, better to stay put and wait for the right opportunity otherwise do DCA as that's the last option we have.
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Thanks for sharing this topic, it was deeply buried in the section that's why I did not come to read it, I suggest, this topic of yours (the one you mentioned above) will suit better in the trading section, or in the help section.
It's my mistake when publishing it and it's painful because in altcoinstalks, I can not move my topic to another board.
Talking about judging the market, I do know we can't judge the market 100% but we can make some plans or strategies to minimize the loss and increase the profit and that will do the work of timing the market. I read your mentioned topic and it was refreshing because the things were already in my mind but I was like not giving any importance to them. But now I realize the importance of a plan.
I don't know what is the mentioned topic in your post by if you have yet read an insightful topic for investment strategy, I invite you to read it now or when you have time.
- Are you ready for the Bitcoin bull market? What's your plan? Some ideas for you (https://www.altcoinstalks.com/index.php?topic=316364.0)
- Discussion is in that topic, so I won't repeat it here.
I suggest add the link that directly leads us to the cohort page.
Follow https://twitter.com/glassnode that sometimes give you free information about it but with some delays because you know, it's free lunch.
Sometimes, you will have it free from Glassnode Insights' on-chain weekly report (https://insights.glassnode.com/tag/newsletter/).
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(https://i.ibb.co/SXgMDP4/Heatmap.jpg)
Three top categories for >10k, 1k-10k, 100-1k, have good continuation and prolong of their accumulations. We can see these top band are all in blue that signal whale accumulation. Below top three whale bands, other Bitcoin holders have been taking profit and temporarily exiting the market.
This is detected by Cryptoquant and their own metric with definition for accumulative addresses.
Definition of an Accumulation Address:
1/ No outgoing txns.
2/ Balance exceeding 10 BTC.
3/ Excludes accounts belonging to centralized exchanges (CEXs) or miners.
4/ Has received more than two incoming txns.
5/ The most recent transaction occurred within the last 7 years.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GG0tc1kawAAlmNt?format=jpg&name=900x900) (https://twitter.com/ki_young_ju/status/1760114830206554495)
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The accumulation trend has been expanding to smaller wallet cohorts. Things are becoming more interesting and Bitcoin is on fire.
Even it is only in light blue, it is a start of something big.
Please share that are you still holding your bitcoin or already sold it and are waiting for corrections?
(https://i.ibb.co/kmh1Skh/Heatmap-27022024.jpg)
Best has yet come as Google search volume has yet soar
- https://www.theblock.co/data/alternative-crypto-metrics/web-traffic
- https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin&hl=en
- https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/bitcoinBubble
(https://i.ibb.co/sHNWmWF/Google-Search-Volume.png)
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Ecoinometrics gives similar information in their newsletter.
- A bullish Bitcoin whales pattern (https://ecoinometrics.substack.com/p/a-bullish-bitcoin-whales-pattern).
Whales are setting up the game but will you join their party and take advantage of it or you just react like other small fishes and waste this free opportunity. You decide.
Also, please read
- We are still early in this bull run. Retails have yet come back massively! (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=318756.0)
- In early of a bull run, you need to hold tightly, tight your seat-bell and hold your bitcoin
(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c9b2338-8cb7-4d9d-8ac0-59e7ad872c87_3543x3543.png)
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Some whales sparsely sold their bitcoins but the good news is all cohorts are still in blue and we are going to accumulation phase for all.
Sell days ago and bought a dip or sell now and wait for another dip that might or might not come. What will you do?
Holding your bitcoin if you missed both chances to take profit above $69,000 and a dip to $59,000.
Selling now and wait for a dip with lot of hope that it will come but as said, it might not come.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GH_1G_vWgAANgTc?format=jpg&name=900x900) (https://twitter.com/bitcoinmunger/status/1765399572958826825)
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Some whales sparsely sold their bitcoins but the good news is all cohorts are still in blue and we are going to accumulation phase for all.
Sell days ago and bought a dip or sell now and wait for another dip that might or might not come. What will you do?
Holding your bitcoin if you missed both chances to take profit above $69,000 and a dip to $59,000.
Selling now and wait for a dip with lot of hope that it will come but as said, it might not come.
~
Bitcoin price movements will likely continue to rise because it is approaching the halving which will occur in the next few days, which will trigger whales to buy it and after the price rises automatically, whales only need to wait for the time to sell it until panic occurs because the price has fallen very deeply.
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(https://i.ibb.co/2PVTChP/tred.jpg) (https://ibb.co/0Z4x62Z)
Above is the chart from Glassnode (https://glassnode.com/) for Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohorts. The market is in a most shaking period after some months. If you are holding Bitcoin and missed chance to take profit nearly $50,000, don't feel bad.
Because
- Halving is only three months ahead
- Big whales have been accumulating bitcoin for their games.
I don't have the ability to hold bitcoins like a whale but I am constantly increasing my investment by working here. Currently I am in a lot of profit in this pumping market. I hope I can achieve more success if the market grows more. All of the whales you mentioned here have a lot of money which is why they are able to invest more than I can afford to invest and carry on with that investment. I look forward to the next bull market where the price will definitely increase and create more new ATH in the market than now and that ATH will grow my investment much more.
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Bitcoin price movements will likely continue to rise because it is approaching the halving which will occur in the next few days
Halving will happen next 41 days (https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/), not few days.
which will trigger whales to buy it and after the price rises automatically, whales only need to wait for the time to sell it until panic occurs because the price has fallen very deeply.
Whales actually are smart than retails and they accumulated Bitcoin with cheap prices ahead of retails. They manipulate the market and they know what they are doing.
Continue to rise?
I am not sure because the market usually reacts oppositely with what the crowd include majority of retails, think of.
Because we can not predict the market, like when Bitcoin will have corrections, it's better to just hold it and take profit at new ATH that should be much higher than $70,000.
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People are continuing their Bitcoin accumulations and the blue is dominating all bands and expands more with time.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIYlWTmXEAAY920?format=jpg&name=900x900) (https://twitter.com/bitcoinmunger/status/1767140974038290652)
Another on-chain data source, from CryptoQuant, we have some additional information about accumulation from Retail Cohorts.
They are back but their on-chain activities still are not enough to identify that the bull run already hits its peak. Two used metrics are BTC Unrealized Profit Ratio for Retail Cohorts; and Realized Cap < 1 Month (%).
With the first metric, he said Bitcoin probably already is half of its way to Euphoria area that I agree with because my target price would be somewhere around $120,000.
I don't exclude that with Bitcoin Spot ETF capital and impacts, Bitcoin might do more than doubling its 2021 ATH.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIbVWkraIAAiPFO?format=jpg&name=900x900) (https://twitter.com/ki_young_ju/status/1767336678820344256)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIbnu4qa8AA2WCE?format=jpg&name=900x900) (https://twitter.com/ki_young_ju/status/1767355630128714210)
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(https://i.ibb.co/2PVTChP/tred.jpg) (https://ibb.co/0Z4x62Z)
Above is the chart from Glassnode (https://glassnode.com/) for Bitcoin trend accumulation score by cohorts. The market is in a most shaking period after some months. If you are holding Bitcoin and missed chance to take profit nearly $50,000, don't feel bad.
Because
- Halving is only three months ahead
- Big whales have been accumulating bitcoin for their games.
The point of this thread is the 10+k Cohort just started their accumulation. See the top blue row in the chart and now we have three top rows (whales) are accumulating Bitcoin after long time of distribution.
Accumulating more bitcoins like whales or if you can not do accumulation, just hold and wait for a bull run.
Note:
- It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5482639.0)
- I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
- I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.
Well, it's a tools used to measure the accumulation of Bitcoin in different groups of investor's. By calculation it takes average holding period of each cohort and. Weighing it against the number of Bitcoin vin circulation. This make it possible to know how much Bitcoin is held by different groups and they're accumulation among the different cohorts.
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After one month, perhaps it's good time to have an update on Bitcoin Trend accumulation score by cohorts. After some weeks of chaos and corrections, all cohorts are selling except the 10+ cohort which is still accumulating.
If you took profit during last four weeks, it's time to think of accumulation back. Weeks ago, I posted that Bitcoin probably will drop to $52k to $53k but I also want to emphasize that with order filling market, peak, bottom and accumulation phase of the market will be in range, not a price point.
So if you are going long term with Bitcoin, it's time for returning with accumulation.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GLSZxwuXQAEdPe-?format=jpg&name=900x900) (https://twitter.com/bitcoinmunger/status/1780216837801693463)
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Halving happened just hours ago and the transaction fees are in chaos it went to over $200 if you're a small trader I don't think this is the right time to transact after the halving this is the right time to accumulate the spike in transaction fees is attributed to the new protocol.
So many users are rushing to mint this token, right now I'm monitoring the price on when it will go back to where it was so I can transact again.
Transaction fees spiked on Bitcoin as the launch of a new protocol called Runes led to a flurry of transactions as speculators rushed to mint digital tokens atop the blockchain.
https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/04/20/bitcoin-blockchain-has-fourth-halving-in-15-year-history-in-show-of-monetary-policy-set-by-code/
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Glassnode Insights with their latest report has an update on Bitcoin trend accumulation by cohorts.
- Week 18, 2024 report (https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-18-2024/)
Accumulation Trend Score
First, we will employ the Accumulation Trend Score to illustrate how investor accumulation patterns have shaped local tops and bottoms since the FTX crash.
During the early stages of both the 2020-21 and 2023-24 bull runs, we can see a confluence between local regimes of distribution (light colours) and intervals of price contraction. As the market rallies to new highs, sell pressure is re-activated, as investors bring dormant supply back into the market to satisfy the inflowing demand.
As spot price reached new ATHs in mid-March, the same pattern of local distribution occurred, which was intensified as news around the conflict in the Middle East broke, causing a correction to $60.3k.
Bull local distribution break-down
If we inspect the breakdown of this metric by wallet sizes, we can complete a more detailed assessment. Here we see a distinct uptick in net outflows 🟥 across all cohorts throughout April, suggesting a consistent sell-side pressure across the board.
(https://insights.glassnode.com/content/images/2024/04/woc-18-02.png)
(https://insights.glassnode.com/content/images/2024/04/woc-18-01.png)
I really hope to see this healthy correction and local distribution lasts for a while, like some months to help NUPL to drop further.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/
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Bitcoin price movements will likely continue to rise because it is approaching the halving which will occur in the next few days, which will trigger whales to buy it and after the price rises automatically, whales only need to wait for the time to sell it until panic occurs because the price has fallen very deeply.
In fact, the reality is not that simple. Even after the halving, the price of Bitcoin continued to decline, and today, it became one of the peaks of the drop after the halving. Quite surprising, but again it may also be influenced by current issues.
I also don't think that the price of BTC will fall back below $60k, but I think even if it drops, it won't be this far. However, the net even touched $56k. and there is a possibility of even more drops. That's certainly going to be quite panic-inducing for Bitcoin shorter hodlers especially, or people who are just entering the crypto world, right?
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Bitcoin price movements will likely continue to rise because it is approaching the halving which will occur in the next few days, which will trigger whales to buy it and after the price rises automatically, whales only need to wait for the time to sell it until panic occurs because the price has fallen very deeply.
In fact, the reality is not that simple. Even after the halving, the price of Bitcoin continued to decline, and today, it became one of the peaks of the drop after the halving. Quite surprising, but again it may also be influenced by current issues.
I also don't think that the price of BTC will fall back below $60k, but I think even if it drops, it won't be this far. However, the net even touched $56k. and there is a possibility of even more drops. That's certainly going to be quite panic-inducing for Bitcoin shorter hodlers especially, or people who are just entering the crypto world, right?
It is true that currently the price of bitcoin after the halving continues to show a decline in price, but you have to know that it is not easy to increase the price of bitcoin, it requires a lot of money to be burned to buy bitcoin at a very expensive price. usually to do that whales will wait for good news that can trigger whales to buy bitcoin again.
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In fact, the reality is not that simple. Even after the halving, the price of Bitcoin continued to decline, and today, it became one of the peaks of the drop after the halving. Quite surprising, but again it may also be influenced by current issues.
I also don't think that the price of BTC will fall back below $60k, but I think even if it drops, it won't be this far. However, the net even touched $56k. and there is a possibility of even more drops. That's certainly going to be quite panic-inducing for Bitcoin shorter hodlers especially, or people who are just entering the crypto world, right?
Currently the price of bitcoin has touched $61k and it doesn't look like it will last long because market conditions are not very good, support from bitcoin buyers has decreased and there is a lot of bad news circulating which has caused the price of bitcoin to decline.
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Currently the price of bitcoin has touched $61k and it doesn't look like it will last long because market conditions are not very good, support from bitcoin buyers has decreased and there is a lot of bad news circulating which has caused the price of bitcoin to decline.
But good news always comes suddenly and doesn't even give time for those who are late to buy. I still feel that there are many large institutions and also whales behind the scenes who still want Bitcoin to survive and make profits for them... therefore, following their flow is the only way for retail investors to survive.
Maybe right now they haven't moved, so the bad news and negative sentiment keep coming... however, I remain optimistic for some time to come, because Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies always provide magical surprises. Just be patient and hold onto your assets for some time to come.
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But good news always comes suddenly and doesn't even give time for those who are late to buy. I still feel that there are many large institutions and also whales behind the scenes who still want Bitcoin to survive and make profits for them... therefore, following their flow is the only way for retail investors to survive.
Maybe right now they haven't moved, so the bad news and negative sentiment keep coming... however, I remain optimistic for some time to come, because Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies always provide magical surprises. Just be patient and hold onto your assets for some time to come.
That is the desire of whales who try to provide movement first before it is spread to existing traders. Whales will quickly provide coin price movements depending on the news. If the news has positive value it will increase the price of the coin, but vice versa when there is news bad then it will make the price go down.