~snip~
I firmly believe that with 3 impacts: increased demand, reduced available supply on CEXs and halved new supply, BTC price will soon explode and create a new ATH right in 2024. For me, the short-term BTC price fluctuations are not a concern, I believe we are in the first steps of the 2024 bullrun and BTC could reach at least $150K in 2025.
Every halving has had an effect on the price so far, and for now we have no reason to doubt that it will not be the same this time. However, if we are to be realistic, the actual impact of the halving has less and less influence on the market, considering that miners have less and less coins that they can sell.
What they currently mine is about 27 000 BTC per month, and after the halving it will be only 13 500 BTC per month, which is actually just dust compared to the 19.6 million BTC that have been mined so far. Of course, the psychological impact of halving is still present in the minds of most people, and that's why we can hope that history will repeat itself.
What do you think about these impacts on BTC price in the long term? Is this just a trick of Market Maker? How much do you expect BTC price to reach in 2024-2025?
Spot ETFs are still an unknown if we look at the long term, because some say that all this inflow of BTC into the funds is nothing but a consequence of the initial enthusiasm and that it will slow down significantly as time goes on, but if it is true that the number of BTC on CEXs has decreased significantly in recent years, the question is how much the funds can absorb and thus cause the demand to become greater than the supply. It is difficult to speculate about the new ATH, but I hope that it will be at least x2 or x3 of the last ATH, which would mean from $150k to $200k, although Bitcoin can always surprise us and achieve much more.