Will India be able to take China's place in the world economy ?

[bitbit97]

Dont know what positions China is loosing, but (it might sound bad or disappoint someone, so sorry in advance) India is easier to be manipulated than China. I am talking about army or firepower. Imho India is no match for China. When someone tries to control China, it can show teeth. Can India do the same? Or it will accept every offer from any foreign country, even if it is less profitable than offer to China ? Also generations will pass, when people will change their «China = cheaper» vision. What I say that even if India takes economical leadership, people will still prefer China.

[DrBeer]

Dont know what positions China is loosing, but (it might sound bad or disappoint someone, so sorry in advance) India is easier to be manipulated than China. I am talking about army or firepower. Imho India is no match for China. When someone tries to control China, it can show teeth. Can India do the same? Or it will accept every offer from any foreign country, even if it is less profitable than offer to China ? Also generations will pass, when people will change their «China = cheaper» vision. What I say that even if India takes economical leadership, people will still prefer China.

That's your opinion, and it has a right to exist too

I'll tell you what China is losing. And this is not my fantasy, it will be facts that you can easily check.
- Investment.
- Access to technology.
- Access to institutions of higher education in technological areas (pharmaceuticals, medicine, etc.).
- Investment attractiveness
- Markets (western countries)
- Political weight in the developed world


PS The times of "Chinese=deshovny" are long gone. The growth of the market has led to increased competition in the labor market, which led to an increase in wages, which ultimately affected the cost of production. as you understand - it has increased. The second thing that affects the cost is investment in production. Large companies are modernizing and this is also reflected in the cost of production. Yes, while it is a little cheaper than for example European goods, but you and the standard of living do not compare ! And there are still many manufacturers who have "China = cheap and low quality", this is sold to "brotherly countries", where the population's income does not allow you to buy quality and therefore more expensive goods.

[electronicash]

China = cheap and low quality

didn't the Chinese build some bridges in US?
how can China lose access to technology when they are the first to have 5G and they are already up developing 9G.  they also have the space exploration advantage which they even partnered with spaceX.

stop watching the news, the media is totally disconnected to the reality. and this disconnection is pretty much what they feed to the minds of the people.

i'm not from China but basically, if they have been favored by the African countries and the Middle East countries, its because of how they helped them develop projects in the region with all the new technology they have which united them all. no one does that but China even i they are yet not the leader.

[DrBeer]

China = cheap and low quality

didn't the Chinese build some bridges in US?
how can China lose access to technology when they are the first to have 5G and they are already up developing 9G.  they also have the space exploration advantage which they even partnered with spaceX.

stop watching the news, the media is totally disconnected to the reality. and this disconnection is pretty much what they feed to the minds of the people.

i'm not from China but basically, if they have been favored by the African countries and the Middle East countries, its because of how they helped them develop projects in the region with all the new technology they have which united them all. no one does that but China even i they are yet not the leader.

You have selected some "indicative" examples.
Yes, there are areas where China is in a good position. But we need to understand where it all came from, where the technology comes from, where the specialists come from (training, experience, practice). You probably know that the United States and the EU are now reducing the access of Chinese residents to higher educational institutions (technological) and are also introducing very strict controls regarding access to information and technologies of Chinese citizens in other countries. the reason is banal - theft, massive, of all technologies that Chinese specialists can get their hands on. So the fact that they have something of really high quality does not mean that they developed it
And the question is why, after the United States sharply limited China’s access to technology and planned to move high-tech sites outside of China, China began to get very nervous and began to actively seek dialogue with the United States, if they are doing so well with their technologies?! Try to explain this "phenomenon"

[Agbe]

I am not too good in international Growth Domestic Product {GDP} analysis for each countries for now because I am not focusing on that at the moment. But even at that base on productive and their uses in the whole whole world, and if I am not mistaken, China's products are still more the in the African international market and some other global markets in the world so to what extent do you know that India is the highest has the highest GDP against China.

[DrBeer]

I am not too good in international Growth Domestic Product {GDP} analysis for each countries for now because I am not focusing on that at the moment. But even at that base on productive and their uses in the whole whole world, and if I am not mistaken, China's products are still more the in the African international market and some other global markets in the world so to what extent do you know that India is the highest has the highest GDP against China.

The slight nuance is that the main export revenue to China was generated by the Western market. This was the case until about 2021/2022 (I may be wrong, but it is approximately so).
No offense to other regions, but for example the African region cannot give such a volume in absolute terms and in terms of profit. Yes I know that China sells a lot of goods to African countries, but these are goods with lower production costs and lower added value than goods sold to the US, EU, Canada,.....  Plus China needs freely convertible currency, which is mostly provided by western consumption markets and less by African/Asian markets

[DrBeer]

Just today's news: There is a major shift in global markets as investors are pulling billions of dollars out of China's "collapsing" economy and funneling it to India and other fast-growing countries. This is reported by Bloomberg.

Two decades ago, investors bet on China as the country with the world's fastest economic growth. However, now the situation is rapidly changing. China is suffering from chronic economic problems and deteriorating relations with the West.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-06/goldman-morgan-stanley-bet-on-india-stocks-as-wall-street-shifts-from-china

As we can see - the success of the Chinese economy is nothing but a consequence of Western investments.... And I am sure - if China's prospects were attractive, such investors would not leave China. Let's draw conclusions...

[electronicash]

China = cheap and low quality

didn't the Chinese build some bridges in US?
how can China lose access to technology when they are the first to have 5G and they are already up developing 9G.  they also have the space exploration advantage which they even partnered with spaceX.

stop watching the news, the media is totally disconnected to the reality. and this disconnection is pretty much what they feed to the minds of the people.

i'm not from China but basically, if they have been favored by the African countries and the Middle East countries, its because of how they helped them develop projects in the region with all the new technology they have which united them all. no one does that but China even i they are yet not the leader.

You have selected some "indicative" examples.
Yes, there are areas where China is in a good position. But we need to understand where it all came from, where the technology comes from, where the specialists come from (training, experience, practice). You probably know that the United States and the EU are now reducing the access of Chinese residents to higher educational institutions (technological) and are also introducing very strict controls regarding access to information and technologies of Chinese citizens in other countries. the reason is banal - theft, massive, of all technologies that Chinese specialists can get their hands on. So the fact that they have something of really high quality does not mean that they developed it
And the question is why, after the United States sharply limited China’s access to technology and planned to move high-tech sites outside of China, China began to get very nervous and began to actively seek dialogue with the United States, if they are doing so well with their technologies?! Try to explain this "phenomenon"

what are you talking about? lol  china's been developing more tech than any countries today.  didn't china the first to invest gun powder?

anyway, if the US government will have debts from India as big as their debt from China, i would then believe India will be the next leader but as long as China never get involve in war as seem to be what is pushed today, none can prevent China from rising.
media seem to be pushing war India vs China even when they are both in BRICS. jesus.

[retreat]

India is very likely to be able to replace China as the country with the largest economy in the world, if its economic growth can be stable at 8-9% per year, if India cannot achieve this it will be very difficult for them to be able to displace China and America who are currently in positions 1 and 2. We don't need to discuss dreams for the next 10-20 years, let's just see how the Modi government is now and how it decides to bring India to achieve economic growth above 8%, if he can't do that then India will still be in the top 3-5 positions in the world.

[DrBeer]

.....
what are you talking about? lol  china's been developing more tech than any countries today.  didn't china the first to invest gun powder?

anyway, if the US government will have debts from India as big as their debt from China, i would then believe India will be the next leader but as long as China never get involve in war as seem to be what is pushed today, none can prevent China from rising.
media seem to be pushing war India vs China even when they are both in BRICS. jesus.

Sorry, but this myth is very easy to debunk
What I agree with is that China is still the "world's factory". But it doesn't have as much of its own technology as it would like. Let me remind you once again, it sounds not very pleasant, but the fact is that China has been and remains the largest "illegal user of other people's technologies", this is a very mild description of the essence, so as not to offend anyone.
It produces a lot at the expense of Western technology. I am not saying that 100% of "appropriated technologies", but a LARGE part.

And let me remind you once again - if China is so good with its own technologies and high-level research and development, why do they strive to get education, practice, high-tech equipment and technologies from the West? And they get very "worried" when the West starts limiting access to them !
China became modern China thanks to Western money and Western technology. Now this situation is changing, that is why China is frantically looking for a way out, realizing that being cut off from investments and technologies, it will slip back to the level of China of the 70s of the last century.

PS About the war - are you serious?! Is someone pushing China? Probably the reptiloids and definitely the USA? )) Study the history of this conflict and it will become easier for you, because you will lose the hard dissonance in many questions !

[DrBeer]

India is very likely to be able to replace China as the country with the largest economy in the world, if its economic growth can be stable at 8-9% per year, if India cannot achieve this it will be very difficult for them to be able to displace China and America who are currently in positions 1 and 2. We don't need to discuss dreams for the next 10-20 years, let's just see how the Modi government is now and how it decides to bring India to achieve economic growth above 8%, if he can't do that then India will still be in the top 3-5 positions in the world.

It is probably still too early to talk about the ability of any country or union to reach the level of the USA. even the EU economy could not do it, and I think that for any individual country - it is still from the realm of almost fantasy. That's the reality. It is possible to talk about it, provided that the US economy "drops" a lot. And I think this is a topic for a separate discussion.

Regarding India and the indicators you mentioned, I would rather agree than disagree. These are very good indicators that GUARANTEE strong growth of the Indian economy, and accordingly the growth of investment attractiveness, and this is the strongest dope (in a good sense) for the development of entire industries and the economy as a whole! At the same time, I do not exclude that in case of further decline and degradation of the Chinese economy, a few percent lower indicators will be acceptable for India. But let us not guess, we will observe the development of the situation, including the global situation

[Peter90]

Crazy Rich Asians...






The Ambanis’ wealth remains more than double that of the next clan in the ranking of Asia's richest families, the Hartonos of Indonesia's Djarum brand.

It also earns them rank 8 among the world’s wealthiest legacy families. All in all, the 2024 ranking now features four Indian families in the top 10, up from just two last year.

New additions are the Jindal family, who made their wealth in different industrial sectors, and Birla family, who run conglomerate Aditya Birla Group.

Two families each hailing from Hong Kong and Thailand are also among the top 10, with Thai Red Bull inventors, the Yoovidhyas, in rank 6.


Chinese emigrants are quite common among the list of Asia’s most wealthy families.

Chearavanont patriarch Chia Ek Chor came to Thailand from Southern China in 1921 and started out importing and exporting seeds, vegetables and animal products between Bangkok, China and Hong Kong.

Outside of the top 10, the Pao/Woo family (rank 11) and the inventors of Oyster Sauce, the Lee family (rank 17), made their fortunes in Hong Kong after emigrating from Mainland China. The story is similar with the Sy family (rank 14) who are conglomerate owners in the Philippines.

[DrBeer]

And some more positive news from India:
"India is set to distance itself from its biggest arms supplier, amid Russia losing its ability to supply ammunition and spare parts for military hardware, after launching an invasion of Ukraine.
It is noted that the world's largest arms importer is slowly turning to the West as the United States seeks to strengthen its position in the Indo-Pacific region, hoping to contain China.
It is pointed out that over the past 20 years, India has spent about $60 billion for arms purchases and more than 65% of the supplies were provided by the Russian Federation. However, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has forced it to look for other options for defense cooperation."

And there are some excellent points here:
1. India will not be an indirect sponsor of the Russian military-industrial complex
2. India has already been "burned" by contracts with Russia (development of helicopter, airplanes and other weapons), and does not want to take any more risks due to non-fulfillment of contract terms by the Russian side.
3. The simple purchase of arms from Russia gave nothing but costs and dependence.
4. The West offers joint production of weapons, which means access to technology, new production, new jobs and new taxes to the state treasury!

[DrBeer]

According to reports, Germany is in talks with India regarding the supply of artillery shells of the main 155 caliber. The primary order is to support the AFU forces in opposing the Kremlin regime and to destroy Russian occupation forces. In the future, India is seen as the largest contract supplier of these and other weapons to NATO member states in the EU. Considering the situation, such contracts may become not only very long term, but also very large-scale and have a huge impact on the country's budget and new investments in the country's military-industrial sector. India is choosing the right vector !

[Peter90]

monthly record for silver imports into India






India imports 2200 tons of silver in February (approx 70 mil oz), after total imports in 2022 were 3,625 tons.
After 2 months India is at almost 3,000 tons, with the annual record being 9600 tons in 2022.