Halving likelihood to be in red?

[tranthidung]

Halving is around but there are still many days (30 days) till the halving. [^1]

I see difference that this month is still in Green. Since the start day of March till today, Bitcoin price is up 9%. ^[2]
 
Who expect Bitcoin price will rise x2 quickly after the halving is too naive and if they sell their house, then leverage it on Margin trading, they deserve to be liquidated. If they are long term investor, they will be clam and see effects from halving will come some months after that. Because it takes time for people to realize the halve of new supply and who want to sell will sell their bitcoins, who have diamond hands will hold their bitcoins.

The end game is like Michael Saylor said, "Who have most bitcoins will win". As retail investors, if we can hold our bitcoins months after the halving, we are winners.

[1] https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
[2] https://cryptorank.io/price/bitcoin

[joniboini]

What I'm trying to say is if it would fall like ETF news recall that it fell from around $49K and went to $38.5 but now crossed $70K and currently $67K this is the beauty of Bitcoin.  It always beats it's new high after a dip.

I think that's a good strategy to have. Always expect a dump after a major event that is hyped happened, since most retail traders or big players will likely sell since they share the same sentiment as your point above. I believe it is similar to a self-fulfilling prophecy where people are selling the news even though nothing fundamentally changed. Just the nature of how weak hands navigate the market if you ask me. Nothing is wrong with taking profits, but overly optimistic or pessimistic is not the way to do it. Being too emotional is always a negative thing regardless of what assets you invested.

[Jamal Aezaz]

As this cycle has been rather atypical, breaking the regularities observed in previous cycles, most of us are more insecure than ever. Even so, I still believe that 2024 will be a positive year, very positive, and that we will cross the $100,000 mark, but I would not be surprised by downward movements at any time that will scare retail investors who have entered at the highs and make them sell.

Agree with you the year of 2024 is still a very good year for all of investors who are not feared of market dip but once a person get feared of such situations then he will not he cannot take the benefit of coming halving.

Market is now little bit better than yesterday because all coins are getting back to its huge price so people are still holding their coins because everyone knows that once again the price will of bitcoin and other coins will skyrocket. 100k$ in such situations will takes some time but 80k$ is possible that we will see 80k$ after halving.

[Faisal2202]

Still on the topic, what are your thoughts on the early days of this halving?

I also have the same feelings as I read somewhere that days after halving might be in red, but that does not mean the market will remain red all the time, just like you said, halving might bring the same result that ETF's approval brought, and that was slow uptrend, but at least it brought the result we all were waiting for. Which means halving will also do the same so nothing to be worrying about here.

Although future or margin traders should consider this possibility and trade accordingly, BTC is highly volatile at the moment and IMO it would be far more volatile if all the trades that these BTC ETF companies are making won't be on OTC, instead they would be made on exchanges. Long term investors should not be affected by it.

[KryptoBull]

This is one of my biggest fear as far as the price of BTC is concerned because I am really expecting that right before and during halving it would already be hovering in the $100K range. s always, I am wrong and my plans are being derailed. I should have cashed out when the price was at the $73K level...right now it is $63K with a big difference of $10K. I should have listened to an article I read that predicted this dip before the halving. Certainly, this can be a manifestation of the "sell the news" phenomenon pushing the narrative that indeed Bitcoin is really so volatile. Still, am hoping that before the halving the price can approach the $70K zone.

I don't think we should worry about price action at Halving. Whether it goes up or down, it is just a normal fluctuation of this market. We are in an uptrend, the price increase is dominating the price decrease is just an adjustment to consolidate the uptrend. I think we should focus on working to have more investment capital instead of being afraid of uncertain things that will happen and their impact on the crypto market is negligible.

I am DCA BTC, regardless of the BTC price at Halving, I will still use 50% of the DCA amount to switch to DCA altcoins instead of BTC as it is now. That's what I choose to do for the future!

[NikeFit_7777]

On the vastness of the internet, found a very interesting graph: "Mainers have not been pushing sales for 10 days now."

P.S. What are your thoughts on this? Is it really true? Or once again, they are trying to deceive + mislead. Honestly? I'm not surprised by anything anymore + I try to double-check information several times. 

[LogitechMouse]

Like people are already buying the rumor I believe many would sell the news and a dump would occur after or a day/two before the halving.  What are your thoughts on this?
Does selling the news still apply here?

Month-to-date, Bitcoin is still up by ~$3000 even though we've seen a huge dump after it's continuous price increase.
The "sell the news" thing didn't happen a day or two before the halving, but it happened when people least expected it.

I mean is there any reason for Bitcoin to surpass it's previous ATH even though the halving event didn't happened yet? People got FOMO'ed at that time because many saw Bitcoin trying to surpass it's previous ATH. Now people who bought near the ATH are down double percentage currently, but I guess it doesn't matter because in the long run, they will still be in profit since we expect that Bitcoin's price will go higher than it's previous ATH during the bull run.

As for the "selling the news", it's still happening, and it's a good strategy as well. Like you said, we've seen a dump when the SEC accepted the 11 Spot Bitcoin ETFs though we've seen a major increase after that dump. It might happened as well with the Bitcoin halving event. After the event, we might see Bitcoin's price going down a little bit then it will go up in price. This is a perfect opportunity for us investors to buy. Like they say "Buy the dip".

[0t3p0t]

From the beginning, I personally have had this thought that  this halving circle is quite different from the other previous circles we've seen or had in the past, like for example, this circle is the very first where we witnessed bitcoin record a new all time high while halving is still several days away, so any one who expected that the price of bitcoin will behave just the same way it behaved in the previous circles might be totally wrong and that might lead to several wrong investment decisions.

The current bitcoin price correction we are witnessing is long over due, and this actually means that we are still a in very healthy market.

Personally, I am not looking at the current price of bitcoin, or what how the market behaves during the halving, one thing I know for sure is that, bitcoin and some other good altcoins are going to the moon this year and next year, and every dip is an opportunity to accumulate more of any coin we feel we don't have enough of..
I am expecting to see bitcoin below $45,000 before it starts to rise again, and this may happen after the halving.
Not financial advice though.

Yeah this also what I expected before and after halving. Things will be very different this time as we all know pandemic has impacted the previous halving event so this time the opposite has happened since the approval of Bitcoin ETF was successful and that triggered a huge leap of price that hit the new all time high. And from that perspective a lot of things might happen before and after the  said event and for sure new batch of crypto millionaires will exist after that.

[Google+]

Yeah this also what I expected before and after halving. Things will be very different this time as we all know pandemic has impacted the previous halving event so this time the opposite has happened since the approval of Bitcoin ETF was successful and that triggered a huge leap of price that hit the new all time high. And from that perspective a lot of things might happen before and after the  said event and for sure new batch of crypto millionaires will exist after that.

That's right, many traders who are in ETFs have been waiting for Bitcoin until finally the whales in cryptocurrency realized this and the whales also pumped the price of Bitcoin to very high levels. Hopefully the halving that will occur in the next few days can provide an even higher price increase. from the previous.

[vegasus]

See, various good coins are skyrocketing, including live, Bitcoin is already within us. Having certain Bitcoins which are one of the top coins is truly impressive. Even though I don't do it for necessity, not to mention other types of altcoins. Bitcoin will become something that is very taboo and can be followed, including its price. And of course getting a car that is quite unheard of is like that, but it's not that easy because of how others get it.

[36B]

Stay calm and keep holding bitcoin until it reaches its highest price at the end of this year. If you look at the price of bitcoin on the exchange today, there is a very good movement and this is proof that whales are trying to raise the price of bitcoin again because it is approaching the halving.

[Charles-Tim]

Stay calm and keep holding bitcoin until it reaches its highest price at the end of this year.

If you look at the price of bitcoin on the exchange today, there is a very good movement and this is proof that whales are trying to raise the price of bitcoin again because it is approaching the halving.

Not just the whales but people trading bitcoin are many and they are holding than selling which makes bitcoin to become scarce and the price increasing. Also that if someone do not need the money invested on bitcoin, he can wait until bitcoin increase significantly in 2025. The prediction is that bitcoin bull run will last till 2025. But some people may sell earlier but not sell all which I think is a good strategy.

[EthereumDev_]

Stay calm and keep holding bitcoin until it reaches its highest price at the end of this year.

If you look at the price of bitcoin on the exchange today, there is a very good movement and this is proof that whales are trying to raise the price of bitcoin again because it is approaching the halving.

Not just the whales but people trading bitcoin are many and they are holding than selling which makes bitcoin to become scarce and the price increasing. Also that if someone do not need the money invested on bitcoin, he can wait until bitcoin increase significantly in 2025. The prediction is that bitcoin bull run will last till 2025. But some people may sell earlier but not sell all which I think is a good strategy.

It is true that currently more and more people prefer to hold bitcoin for a very long time because maybe they already understand that the potential that Bitcoin has is very high so holding bitcoin for a very long time will be the right and safe choice.

[SmartGold01]

Not just the whales but people trading bitcoin are many and they are holding than selling which makes bitcoin to become scarce and the price increasing. Also that if someone do not need the money invested on bitcoin, he can wait until bitcoin increase significantly in 2025. The prediction is that bitcoin bull run will last till 2025. But some people may sell earlier but not sell all which I think is a good strategy.

Basically after halving comes another bear market, I don't know how possible is this since most people always said that after halving we experience little dip which might likely affects many holders to stair them to panic sell than holding throughout the hard time. So any thing  next year is when we are going to experience full bull run than now, however is just few days left for the halving let see what the price could be.

[JoyMarsha]

Still on the topic, what are your thoughts on the early days of this halving?

Are there other things to expect from the early days of halving, since currently, the price of bitcoin is still at a high price and the halving in question is in a few weeks?

When I would have put my mind on the early days of halving, would have been if bitcoin hadn't soared above $50k and we are still seeing it below $40k, while the halving is close. However, since bitcoin has gone above $50k, it is now fluctuating between $65k-$70k, I am not putting much focus on the halving since I am convinced it will be a positive one