In part 3, we draw parallels between BTC and historical trading prices of the big 5 tech companies: IBM, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. We also investigate the relationship between price and adoption - which is the first mover?
Statistical analysis of Bitcoin price
There is one metric, BTC trading price, that appears, at least for the time being, more or less unaffected by most blockchain metrics as discussed in the previous section on protocol and network trends. Although at least in theory, issues such as scaling should affect Bitcoin valuation, due to potential limitations of usability and other practicalities, such considerations seem to be at most secondary driving factors of BTC price. Perhaps such mundane considerations will come to bear more directly on the trading price, but at least for the foreseeable future, this seems unlikely to be the case as trading continues to be driven primarily by hype and speculation cycles.
Conversely, the trading price does often have significant impacts on other blockchain metrics, particularly those involving valuation measurements (Fig. 11, 12). A good example of this is the most recent fall off of mining hashing power, as represented by cumulative block size (Fig. 4), very likely a direct result of the recent price decline (Fig. 13, 14). A significant portion of the most inefficient miners have likely been taken offline, owing not only the the lower valuation of mined coinbases, but also the massive decline in transactions, payments, BTC volumes, and fees (Fig. 7, 10-12).
Figure 13: Unconstrained USD/BTC price fits
(https://cryptoinsider.21mil.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/bitstamp-btcusd-trading-price-full-partial-exp1-poly1-fits-1024x799.png)
Figure 13 is a combined plot of full and partial (to July 2017) price fits, all unconstrained regarding their y-intercept values. The partial fits are meant to provide more conservative price fits, by removing any bias introduced by the most proximal bull run. Interestingly, these partial fits, despite their indifference to the recent price spike, plot very similar trends to the long-term 'poly1' full fit.
Figure 14: USD/BTC price fits, constrained through trading origin
(https://cryptoinsider.21mil.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/bitstamp-btcusd-trading-price-constrained-exp1-poly1-fits-1024x797.png)
read more: https://cryptoinsider.21mil.com/part-3-bitcoin-statistical-analysis-btc-price-and-tech-sector/ (https://cryptoinsider.21mil.com/part-3-bitcoin-statistical-analysis-btc-price-and-tech-sector/)