Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018
Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown
Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low
Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown
Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario
Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1
Part 7: Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross
Click on images for "live" trading view charts or click here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188537.msg52592987#msg52592987) for updated versions
Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018
(https://i.imgur.com/z3SQZmp.png) (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/kRkd0baZ-If-Bitcoin-Repeats-History-Descending-Triangle-Looking-Similar/)
Source: Trading View, September 14th 2019 (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/kRkd0baZ-If-Bitcoin-Repeats-History-Descending-Triangle-Looking-Similar/)
The daily bars of the 2018 descending triangle are starting to match the current 2019 descending triangle . If the bearish breakdown also repeats itself in the same way, then this would be the outcome, continuing on from where the charts fit together. Notice how a similar bearish breakdown would take us to the 200 Week MA, given its current trajectory. This would be long-term bullish if this happened, ie finding support again one year later $2K higher. I'd therefore find it unlikely to return to a bear market, or even continued consolidation (which would both be under the 200 Week MA).
Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown
(https://i.imgur.com/T8gwsSn.png) (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/lfSA4LWe-BTCUSD-Measuring-The-Move-of-the-Descending-Triangle-Breakdown/)
Source: Trading View, September 15th 2019 (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/lfSA4LWe-BTCUSD-Measuring-The-Move-of-the-Descending-Triangle-Breakdown/)
In 2018 there was an accuracy within 0.25% ($16) of the measured breakdown of the descending triangle . The calculation equaled $3,145 (-48.2%) with the low arriving at $3,129. Based on the 2019 Weekly descending triangle, the measured move of -32% takes the price to $6,410, give or take $16. If this Weekly triangle is breached to the upside I will calculate the Daily descending triangle, that has a reduced measured move.
Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low
(https://i.imgur.com/wMuBNP2.png) (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/g0rcfzsk-BTCUSD-A-repeat-of-2014-Worst-Case-Scenario-A-2-500-Low/)
Source: Trading View, September 15th 2019 (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/g0rcfzsk-BTCUSD-A-repeat-of-2014-Worst-Case-Scenario-A-2-500-Low/)
This worst case scenario extrapolates the second half of the 2014 bear market going into 2020 with ATL at $2,500 and new ATH in November 2021, as well as reaching $30,000 within the same year. This assumes a double bottom will form in April 2020 prior to the halving, followed by 1.5 years of accumulation/consolidation, with a new ATH being made 4 years after the 2017 ATH.
Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown
(https://i.imgur.com/Wok64H7.png) (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/uMUkplNy-BTCUSD-If-Bitcoin-Repeats-History-Extrapolating-2012-Breakdown/)
Source: Trading View, September 16th 2019 (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/uMUkplNy-BTCUSD-If-Bitcoin-Repeats-History-Extrapolating-2012-Breakdown/)
Bitcoin 2012: Descending triangle breakdown to measured target of -20%. Price consolidated in a tight range between $4.21 to $5.30 after disbelief rally. 7 years later, Bitcoin 2019: Descending triangle with measured breakdown target of -32%. Repeating 2012 suggests a consolidation between $6,415 to $9,420 for 1 year.
The time frames are very different, however the emphasis here is on a BTCUSD descending triangle at the top of a disbelief rally from the bottom of the bear market after a 250% (3.5x) rise. The measured move back then was -20% that Bitcoin achieved. The -32% breakdown target after a 340% (4.4x) doesn't seem unreasonable.
Credit to KaliCrypto (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/oMKax0DV-Descending-Triangle-On-a-Uptrend-fractal/) for the inspiration.
Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario
(https://i.imgur.com/byekKRa.png) (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/IYyJeGzs-BTCUSD-If-2017-Descending-Triangle-Repeats-Best-Case-Scenario/)
Source: Trading View, September 17th 2019 (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/IYyJeGzs-BTCUSD-If-2017-Descending-Triangle-Repeats-Best-Case-Scenario/)
I remind you of July 2017 descending triangle that completely overshot the measured target by around 12%. This is for all the traders who claim descending triangles never break to the downside in bull markets at the top of the trend. Bare in mind this was at the top of a full-blown bull market, after reaching a new ATH and 3.2x from April 2017 low. This was otherwise half way through the 2017 bull market from a 2016 low of $150, so roughly 20x. This is yet another example in the repeating Bitcoin history series to show how they do break to the downside, especially after parabolic bull markets.
The extrapolated breakdown comes to a low of $5,350 (-43%) with a measured target on the Daily descending triangle of $6,875 (-27%). Note this is different to the Weekly descending triangle measured target of $6,410 (-32% see Part 2 above), and is therefore dependent on BTC breaking out of the Weekly descending triangle to the upside, while remaining within the Daily triangle, which isn't a lot to ask for. [1]
[1] Never happened, BTC broke down from Weekly descending triangle.
Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1
(https://i.imgur.com/1LIDxTi.png) (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/HAUjlGtc-BTCUSD-If-Bitcoin-Repeats-History-Monthly-TD-Sequential-Red-1/)
Source: Trading View, September 28th 2019 (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/HAUjlGtc-BTCUSD-If-Bitcoin-Repeats-History-Monthly-TD-Sequential-Red-1/)
With the month of September coming to close in the coming days on a Monthly TD Sequential Red 1 price flip, October will be critical as to whether Bitcoin's monthly candle will close as a green 1 to break the sequential correction, or continue with another 6-8 red candles - as has happened in 2014 and 2018 during bear markets. Note that the Monthly Red 1 candles immediately preceding ATH have been excluded, as previously only have led to a 1-4 candle correction.
As intriguing is that 4 years have now passed since Bitcoin's 2014 Monthly Red 1 candle that led to the 2016-2017 bull market. Additionally, the monthly RSI has broken down from 60 (bullish) to neutral territory, indicating scope for a 7-9 candle correction.
Part 7: Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross
(https://i.imgur.com/L8Ebb0L.png) (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/Zv5WgHM3-BTCUSD-Another-Bearish-Indicator-200-EMA-MA-Bearcross/)
Source: Trading View, October 9th 2019 (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/Zv5WgHM3-BTCUSD-Another-Bearish-Indicator-200-EMA-MA-Bearcross/)
A quick look at the projected 200 EMA & MA bear-cross on the Daily chart . From the March 16th 2018 bearcross at $8,273, the bullcross didn't occur until over a year later on April 4th 2019 at $4,911 after a 40% correction. The current gain in price since this 2019 bullcross has been 60%. Unless the price moves above $8500 within the coming days, the EMA & MA bear-cross is due to occur by the end of the week.
Many traders complain that due to Bitcoin's volatility the MA bull & bear crosses on longer timeframes are delayed indicators, while others prefer to utilize the EMA's (Exponential Moving Averages) for this reason. Here you see the value of trading the 200 EMA & MA bull & bear crosses. Note that following the 2018 bearcross the price first increased by 20% to the 200 Day MA, before signaling the longer-term downtrend.
If Bitcoin Repeats History?
- 2012: Breakdown to $6,415 with 1 year consolidation (Part 4)
- 2014: Breakdown to $2,500 with 1.5 years consolidation (Part 3)
- 2017: Breakdown to $5,350 with 2 months consolidation (Part 2)
- 2018: Breakdown to $5,050 with 6 months consolidation (Part 1)
- 2019: Measured move to $6,410 to $6,875 (Part 2 & 5)
That's a range between $2,500 and $6,875, with anywhere between 2-18 months of consolidation. Conclusion: Anything could happen. Look for clues.
Own work (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1159946.msg51280905#msg51280905): dragononcrypto (https://www.tradingview.com/u/dragononcrypto/)
Parts 4-7 updated to OP. Please note these parts were published between September 16th and October 9th.
For updated "live" versions of the charts click on the chart images or sources.
Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown
Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario
Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1
Part 7: Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA Bearcross