Bitcoin market has its cycle and so far, it relates to Bitcoin halving which was set to be triggered after every 210,000 blocks. During each cycle, there are bearish and bullish years and many news will appear in each cycle.
You can see, read, hear many news in every four years and when you actually experience in the market, with news at the time it occurs, you probably think it is very important, very positive or negative, but after like one, two or three years, you look back and see those news, events are not too much important.
The beauty of Bitcoin market, but it can be changed in future, is its cycle is shorter than other markets like stocks, real estates, gold that can have 8 years, 10 years cycle or even longer.
I say it is beautiful because if you miss opportunities to enter the market, miss chances to take profit in one cycle, you will not have to wait too long to get other opportunities in a new cycle.
If you are still doubtful about market cycles and still want to engage in the market daily, with trading, reading news, putting yourself into uncertain mood, this documents and the graphics will enlighten you. I hope you will broaden your mindset and have better strategy for your investment.
History of US. bear and bull market (https://www.uidaho.edu/-/media/UIdaho-Responsive/Files/Extension/county/Latah/finance/history-of-bull-and-bear-markets.pdf?la=en&hash=3FE66B60665F69ABF4A8CAEF3383C805F868ED0F) with S&P 500 index from 1926 to 2019.
(https://i.ibb.co/NCSw9Wd/1.png)
Gold cycle
A sixteen-year gold cycle? (https://goldbroker.com/news/sixteen-year-gold-cycle-3125)
(https://i.ibb.co/HKDwLSV/2.png)
Real estate cycle
The Real Estate cycle (and How to find the next investment) (https://www.realvantage.co/insights/the-real-estate-cycle/)
(https://i.ibb.co/RPdZSs6/3.png)
Bitcoin market cycles
- Bull market comparison (https://www.decentrader.com/charts/bull-market-comparison/)
- Bitcoin's market cycle (https://calebandbrown.com/blog/bitcoins-market-cycle/)
- Bitcoin and the Predictability of crypto market cycles (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/12/06/bitcoin-and-the-predictability-of-crypto-market-cycles/)
(https://i.ibb.co/MZgcf5h/4.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/4mBj7Q9/5.png)
Note:
- It was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5478408.0)
- I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
- I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.
Due to bitcoin short cycle compare to gold and real estate, this has made bitcoin to the one of the most profitable assest/if not the profitable asset currently. Bitcoin has outperform other assest that has been existing for a very long time.
You can see with either the ROI table or ROI chart, last 10 years.
- https://casebitcoin.com/charts#roi_chart
(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/12/20/ExRHl.png)
(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/12/20/Ex6bT.png)
The high volatile nature of bitcoin is something that one must put into consideration when investing.
The fact is volatility of Bitcoin has been decreasing with time.
- Bitcoin Adjusted Mayer Multiple (https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-mayer-multiple/) shrinks after each Bitcoin halving and cycle.
(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/12/20/Ext9m.png)
Every moment that acts as a buildup to this short cycle matters a lot. Each moment represents a unique opportunity, but these opportunities keep decreasing as Bitcoin mining comes to an end.
If you say so, Bitcoin will die after all 21 million bitcoins completely mined by miners and no more Block subsidy for miners to enjoy. It will not be the case, in my belief because if it ends like this, I and other people have no reason to buy bitcoin right now.