I tend to disagree with the analysis, as Ordinal inscriptions, and positive market structure updates will not change the market structure and the halving effect, as 3.125 bitcoins are still being produced for each block mined, while the average fees are still less than one bitcoin, and in the worst case, 2 bitcoins, and thus Miners will still rely on the block reward, which means the four-year cycle is still valid.
All of this depends on what the fees will be in 2024 and 2025. If their average is 0.3487 BTC/block,
it is obvious that the ½ effect is no longer a true ½ ing
do we drop 30% or 40% vs 48 or 49%
its new and this is the transition ½
What is most important is the price of bitcoin. We all know that bull run will come after halving which will be significant enough to get bitcoin price to all-time-high. That is what that most matters as people that have been holding their coins before halving will make enough money some months after halving.