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Crypto Discussion Forum => Cryptocurrency discussions => Topic started by: KryptoBull on February 15, 2024, 06:05:53 PM

Title: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in?
Post by: KryptoBull on February 15, 2024, 06:05:53 PM
I think most people participating in the market know the market sentiment chart (psychology of a market cycle).

We have Disbelief, Hope, Optimism, Belief, Thrill, Euphoria, Complacency, Anxiety, Denial, Panic, Capitulation, Anger and back to Disbelief, but in short, the traditional market cycle is often divided into four stages: accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown.
(https://livingfromtrading.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Wall-Street-Cheat-Sheet-Psychology-of-a-Market-Cycle-1024x700.png)

I personally believe that although human society has evolved dramatically for several thousand years, psychological fluctuations have not changed much. It is the investor's psychology that creates buying/selling behavior, it is the buying/selling behavior that creates market fluctuations, then market fluctuations affect investor psychology. This loop takes place over time, combined with the increase and decrease of capital resources and asset prices to form the cyclicality of financial markets.

Currently, even though BTC price has reached 52.5K USD and crypto total cap has reached 2T USD, my subjective judgment believes that the crypto market is still in the "Disbelief" stage and has not yet moved to "Hope". I hear optimistic comments, and I hear pessimistic comments about the market. Many people are waiting for the uptrend, while many people are still waiting for BTC price to drop to 20K USD then they will be able to buy more BTC at cheaper price. I think the market needs a strong upward breakthrough for everyone to be optimistic and hope for positive scenarios.

However, that is just my subjective opinion, I would like to get your opinion:
References:
[1] Mastering the Market Cycle – Mindset and Strategies (https://www.livingfromtrading.com/blog/psychology-of-a-market-cycle/)
Note:
Title: Re: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in?
Post by: joniboini on February 16, 2024, 01:16:55 PM
I'd say optimism. ETF was approved, airdrops print money left and right, and people keep fomoing into meme coins here and there. If anything, I'd say the market has been quite bullish for a while now. Obviously, some people are still in disbelief and instead think we will go down to $20k or whatever it is, but a decent amount of people have managed to create money out of thin air for a while now. That being said, I don't really want to judge where we are since this might affect our perception of future movements. The best thing to do is just to ignore any form of cycle and see the chart or sentiment around the market as it is, even though that is almost impossible. Bias is really hard to control and figure out, maybe my opinion is already affected by some bias, to begin with.

As for manipulation, I guess I can see them using this narrative to post charts on social media and encourage people to move according to their needs, or just print charts depending on their mood. I'm not sure if it is strictly related to this specific chart though, since most manipulations that I've heard of are usually limited to mid-term or short-term movement. At the end of the day, we can only guess whether it is possible or not without verifying anything. Just assume everything is manipulated so you can rethink your decision in the near future.
Title: Re: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in?
Post by: Lucius on February 16, 2024, 06:15:27 PM
Quote from: KryptoBull on February 15, 2024, 06:05:53 PM
~snip~
  • Which psychological stage do you think the crypto market sentiment is in? Please explain your opinion.

I would currently place us in the period of Optimism or Belief, given that the price has crossed and is holding above the very important psychological limit of $50 000, which we can thank for the strong accumulation of spot BTC ETFs in the US. Also, everyone already knows that we are in the year of halving, which has always been quite positive, and even more so the year after that.

Thrill could start when we reach a new ATH, and Euphoria when $100 000 is reached. This will definitely resonate in the media and create a great FOMO that will result in the mass involvement of ordinary people, mostly those who currently have nothing to do with cryptocurrencies.

Quote
  • Do you think market makers also use market sentiment charts to manipulate the crypto market?

Absolutely, all this speculation dealing with the possible prices of cryptocurrencies in the next big bull run is partly part of the plan of all those who could benefit from the big money being channeled into the cryptocurrency market. All of them actually say "invest now, now is the right time for big profits", which is actually logical because everyone is fighting for their share of the pie and trying to direct potential investors to where it suits them best.
Title: Re: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in?
Post by: MrSpasybo on February 16, 2024, 07:40:15 PM
Quote from: KryptoBull on February 15, 2024, 06:05:53 PM
Currently, even though BTC price has reached 52.5K USD and crypto total cap has reached 2T USD, my subjective judgment believes that the crypto market is still in the "Disbelief" stage and has not yet moved to "Hope". I hear optimistic comments, and I hear pessimistic comments about the market. Many people are waiting for the uptrend, while many people are still waiting for BTC price to drop to 20K USD then they will be able to buy more BTC at cheaper price. I think the market needs a strong upward breakthrough for everyone to be optimistic and hope for positive scenarios.
1. Personally, I think it is between Disbelief and gradually shifting to Hope thanks to good news right on the price chart, at the same time investors are starting to think about allocating a part of their assets to crypto or other BTC-based products as BTC Spot ETF.

According to the 4 stages of the market, I think we have passed Accumulation and begun Markup, many tokens began to increase in price extremely strongly in a short time to escape the bottom zone. Halving is considered a milestone for growth when the new cycle will officially begin.

2. Market Makers certainly know this chart and they can completely use it to manipulate the market to gain maximum profits. The nature of the market does not change, but the scenario for each cycle will always be flexible and effective. MM has enough data for reference to know what psychology and behavior the majority of investors in the market are having, thereby making it easy to adjust the manipulation scenario.
Title: Re: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in?
Post by: TomPluz on February 21, 2024, 02:05:21 PM
Quote from: KryptoBull on February 15, 2024, 06:05:53 PM

  • Which psychological stage do you think the crypto market sentiment is in? Please explain your opinion.
  • Do you think market makers also use market sentiment charts to manipulate the crypto market?


Definitely, am not an expert on this question and I don't have the data to back up my personal opinion. I would agree with you that we can still be in the primary stage which is Disbelief and we can still see some manifestation of this when we hear bad comments on BTC from famous people who are leaders in their industries even if slowly but surely financial institutions are now starting to get in love with Bitcoin as they are also looking forward to earn money with it. Now, even if BTC is already more than 10-year-old, its market share compared to other assets like gold or stocks can still be considered as minuscule with a lot of room to grow. This is my perception generally speaking but there are times when we see this market psychosocial cycle manifesting in accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown on a lesser levels marked primarily with Bitcoin being a very volatile assets. Come 2025, we can clearly see at what stage Bitcoin is into and I am excitedly looking forward to that.


Title: Re: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in?
Post by: KryptoBull on February 24, 2024, 01:35:01 AM
Quote from: TomPluz on February 21, 2024, 02:05:21 PM
Definitely, am not an expert on this question and I don't have the data to back up my personal opinion. I would agree with you that we can still be in the primary stage which is Disbelief and we can still see some manifestation of this when we hear bad comments on BTC from famous people who are leaders in their industries even if slowly but surely financial institutions are now starting to get in love with Bitcoin as they are also looking forward to earn money with it. Now, even if BTC is already more than 10-year-old, its market share compared to other assets like gold or stocks can still be considered as minuscule with a lot of room to grow. This is my perception generally speaking but there are times when we see this market psychosocial cycle manifesting in accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown on a lesser levels marked primarily with Bitcoin being a very volatile assets. Come 2025, we can clearly see at what stage Bitcoin is into and I am excitedly looking forward to that.
Halving is approaching so most people are very optimistic. We have many predictions that BTC will reach 150K - 200K - 500K USD by 2025, many people even think that the super cycle will come thanks to the success of BTC Spot ETF and MicroStrategy. On the contrary, many people fear that we will see a sharp decline in BTC right before the Halving like what happened in 2020, possibly because of the global financial crisis when the Chinese economy encountered difficulties. Maybe you and I are too skeptical so we think the market is in the "Disbelief" phase.

Quote from: MrSpasybo on February 16, 2024, 07:40:15 PM
1.
According to the 4 stages of the market, I think we have passed Accumulation and begun Markup, many tokens began to increase in price extremely strongly in a short time to escape the bottom zone. Halving is considered a milestone for growth when the new cycle will officially begin.

2. Market Makers certainly know this chart and they can completely use it to manipulate the market to gain maximum profits. The nature of the market does not change, but the scenario for each cycle will always be flexible and effective. MM has enough data for reference to know what psychology and behavior the majority of investors in the market are having, thereby making it easy to adjust the manipulation scenario.
I also think the market has passed the accumulation phase, this is the time for the market to recover and prepare for stronger growth. The second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023 are great times to invest but most missed the opportunity because they were afraid BTC would return to 13K USD.

I also feel like we are somehow being watched by market makers through our buying and selling decisions, orders being placed, and investment portfolios. If there is no way out, we just need to analyze the market and act according to the market makers to profit from their manipulation.
Title: Re: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in?
Post by: Trongduy on February 28, 2024, 04:07:29 PM
Quote from: TomPluz on February 21, 2024, 02:05:21 PM
Definitely, am not an expert on this question and I don't have the data to back up my personal opinion. I would agree with you that we can still be in the primary stage which is Disbelief and we can still see some manifestation of this when we hear bad comments on BTC from famous people who are leaders in their industries even if slowly but surely financial institutions are now starting to get in love with Bitcoin as they are also looking forward to earn money with it. Now, even if BTC is already more than 10-year-old, its market share compared to other assets like gold or stocks can still be considered as minuscule with a lot of room to grow. This is my perception generally speaking but there are times when we see this market psychosocial cycle manifesting in accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown on a lesser levels marked primarily with Bitcoin being a very volatile assets. Come 2025, we can clearly see at what stage Bitcoin is into and I am excitedly looking forward to that.
I think a little differently than you, I think the market has entered the Hope zone: many old investors are returning to crypto, many new investors are starting to come through ETFs and buy stable coins to be ready to buy tokens, causing USDT and USDC caps have increased sharply in recent months. Everyone is waiting for the halving and ETH Spot ETF in the first half of this year, while also putting money into high-return services like staking and retake. Without hope, they will not be optimistic enough to accept risks from new projects appearing in the market.

But right after Optimism is a sideways market segment to test investors' strength and measure market liquidity. When whales know that retail investors have run out of supply, they will slowly pump to the Optimistic zone.
Title: Re: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in?
Post by: LogitechMouse on February 28, 2024, 05:27:22 PM
Quote
Re: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in?
I think we are now in the "BELIEF" stage.

Just look at the price of Bitcoin right now. It went up from $57,000 to now $61,000 by the time I'm posting this. People are in a state of mind where they need to invest because they believe that the bull market is already happening. They think that now is the time for them to invest their hard-earned money.

I looked at Coinmarketcap, and the "Fear and Greed Index" is at 80. As a contrarian type of investor, I see this as a bad sign. Warren Buffet already said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." To those who want to buy Bitcoin right now, beware because, in the next few days, we will see Bitcoin's price going down after this one. I just don't know how low it will be, but with what's happening right now, I believe that we might see higher lows in the next few weeks during the short-term.
Title: Re: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in?
Post by: IvugeoEvolutionCoin on February 29, 2024, 12:35:47 PM
Quote from: Trongduy on February 28, 2024, 04:07:29 PM
I think a little differently than you, I think the market has entered the Hope zone: many old investors are returning to crypto, many new investors are starting to come through ETFs and buy stable coins to be ready to buy tokens, causing USDT and USDC caps have increased sharply in recent months. Everyone is waiting for the halving and ETH Spot ETF in the first half of this year, while also putting money into high-return services like staking and retake. Without hope, they will not be optimistic enough to accept risks from new projects appearing in the market.

But right after Optimism is a sideways market segment to test investors' strength and measure market liquidity. When whales know that retail investors have run out of supply, they will slowly pump to the Optimistic zone.
Many old investors are starting to return to Cryptocurrency because cryptocurrency price movements are increasing, making them enter again. Like the price movement of Bitcoin which is already this expensive, it makes more and more old investors enter and try to return their capital to Bitcoin again. ETFs have a good influence on cryptocurrency price movements, if an ETF is held on Ethereum it will have a big influence on Ethereum price movements.
Title: Re: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in?
Post by: 0t3p0t on February 29, 2024, 04:48:00 PM
Quote from: LogitechMouse on February 28, 2024, 05:27:22 PM
To those who want to buy Bitcoin right now, beware because, in the next few days, we will see Bitcoin's price going down after this one. I just don't know how low it will be, but with what's happening right now, I believe that we might see higher lows in the next few weeks during the short-term.
Yeah, but the question here is that how high will be the current price will go? But you really have the point because anytime soon price will surely plummet and this is quiet normal with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency. So if investors are not aware of this and are over confident about the possibilities of price to continue rallying it may lead to being pinned at a specific price point if market will go against the tides.
Title: Re: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in?
Post by: Lucius on March 01, 2024, 11:53:50 AM
Quote from: LogitechMouse on February 28, 2024, 05:27:22 PM
~snip~
To those who want to buy Bitcoin right now, beware because, in the next few days, we will see Bitcoin's price going down after this one. I just don't know how low it will be, but with what's happening right now, I believe that we might see higher lows in the next few weeks during the short-term.

Do you think that only because of some index and what was said once upon a time by a man who did huge damage to Bitcoin with his statements? Of course, the price cannot rise constantly and corrections will occur, but it still depends on whether spot BTC ETFs will slow down/stop in BTC accumulation, which is currently happening at a rate of around 30 000 BTC per week.

Unless the price drops by 10-15%, I don't see a big difference in whether someone buys BTC at $62k or $58k, especially if we are talking about amounts of a few hundred $ where the difference in the amount of BTC someone buys is very small in relation to the price.

Of course, I am saying all this in the context of long-term investing, for those who trade on a daily/weekly basis, things are much different.
Title: Re: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in?
Post by: R100K-Martin-Lunger on March 01, 2024, 02:26:41 PM
Quote from: KryptoBull on February 15, 2024, 06:05:53 PM
I think most people participating in the market know the market sentiment chart (psychology of a market cycle).

We have Disbelief, Hope, Optimism, Belief, Thrill, Euphoria, Complacency, Anxiety, Denial, Panic, Capitulation, Anger and back to Disbelief, but in short, the traditional market cycle is often divided into four stages: accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown.
  • The sentiment accumulation stage is characterized by low investors and slowly rising prices.
  • The markup stage is when prices accelerate as more and more investors join the rally.
  • The distribution stage is when the market starts to peak and profit-taking begins.
  • The markdown stage is when prices fall sharply as investors sell their holdings[1].
(https://livingfromtrading.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Wall-Street-Cheat-Sheet-Psychology-of-a-Market-Cycle-1024x700.png)

I personally believe that although human society has evolved dramatically for several thousand years, psychological fluctuations have not changed much. It is the investor's psychology that creates buying/selling behavior, it is the buying/selling behavior that creates market fluctuations, then market fluctuations affect investor psychology. This loop takes place over time, combined with the increase and decrease of capital resources and asset prices to form the cyclicality of financial markets.

Currently, even though BTC price has reached 52.5K USD and crypto total cap has reached 2T USD, my subjective judgment believes that the crypto market is still in the "Disbelief" stage and has not yet moved to "Hope". I hear optimistic comments, and I hear pessimistic comments about the market. Many people are waiting for the uptrend, while many people are still waiting for BTC price to drop to 20K USD then they will be able to buy more BTC at cheaper price. I think the market needs a strong upward breakthrough for everyone to be optimistic and hope for positive scenarios.

However, that is just my subjective opinion, I would like to get your opinion:
  • Which psychological stage do you think the crypto market sentiment is in? Please explain your opinion.
  • Do you think market makers also use market sentiment charts to manipulate the crypto market?
References:
[1] Mastering the Market Cycle – Mindset and Strategies (https://www.livingfromtrading.com/blog/psychology-of-a-market-cycle/)
Note:
  • My opinion was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5485282)
  • I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
  • I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.

I believe we are in the hope/ Optimism stage especially with the upcoming halving. And yes people definitely look at market sentiment when investing
If you would like to discuss this further, you can contact me via my Discord: https://discord.gg/dCvaBZWNcG
Title: Re: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in?
Post by: Gideon99 on March 02, 2024, 09:24:52 PM
Quote from: KryptoBull on February 15, 2024, 06:05:53 PM
I think most people participating in the market know the market sentiment chart (psychology of a market cycle).

We have Disbelief, Hope, Optimism, Belief, Thrill, Euphoria, Complacency, Anxiety, Denial, Panic, Capitulation, Anger and back to Disbelief, but in short, the traditional market cycle is often divided into four stages: accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown.
  • The sentiment accumulation stage is characterized by low investors and slowly rising prices.
  • The markup stage is when prices accelerate as more and more investors join the rally.
  • The distribution stage is when the market starts to peak and profit-taking begins.
  • The markdown stage is when prices fall sharply as investors sell their holdings[1].
(https://livingfromtrading.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Wall-Street-Cheat-Sheet-Psychology-of-a-Market-Cycle-1024x700.png)

I personally believe that although human society has evolved dramatically for several thousand years, psychological fluctuations have not changed much. It is the investor's psychology that creates buying/selling behavior, it is the buying/selling behavior that creates market fluctuations, then market fluctuations affect investor psychology. This loop takes place over time, combined with the increase and decrease of capital resources and asset prices to form the cyclicality of financial markets.

Currently, even though BTC price has reached 52.5K USD and crypto total cap has reached 2T USD, my subjective judgment believes that the crypto market is still in the "Disbelief" stage and has not yet moved to "Hope". I hear optimistic comments, and I hear pessimistic comments about the market. Many people are waiting for the uptrend, while many people are still waiting for BTC price to drop to 20K USD then they will be able to buy more BTC at cheaper price. I think the market needs a strong upward breakthrough for everyone to be optimistic and hope for positive scenarios.

However, that is just my subjective opinion, I would like to get your opinion:
  • Which psychological stage do you think the crypto market sentiment is in? Please explain your opinion.
  • Do you think market makers also use market sentiment charts to manipulate the crypto market?
References:
[1] Mastering the Market Cycle – Mindset and Strategies (https://www.livingfromtrading.com/blog/psychology-of-a-market-cycle/)
Note:
  • My opinion was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5485282)
  • I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
  • I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.

According to the psychology of market cycle, there are four main stage: hope,fear,denial and capitulation. Each stages  have is different emotions and behaviors. Like denial people intend to ignore negative news and focus only on the positive side of the market. Hope stage,there start to believe that the market will be up again. Capitulation stage, people sell and buy and. Lost and then give up on the market. On the fear stage, there become more careful for the risk averse and start selling out. which of this stage do you think the crypto market is now? For me I think the capitulation stage.
Title: Re: Which psychological stage of the crypto market are we in?
Post by: KryptoBull on March 04, 2024, 07:38:41 PM
Quote from: LogitechMouse on February 28, 2024, 05:27:22 PM
I think we are now in the "BELIEF" stage.

Just look at the price of Bitcoin right now. It went up from $57,000 to now $61,000 by the time I'm posting this. People are in a state of mind where they need to invest because they believe that the bull market is already happening. They think that now is the time for them to invest their hard-earned money.

I looked at Coinmarketcap, and the "Fear and Greed Index" is at 80. As a contrarian type of investor, I see this as a bad sign. Warren Buffet already said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." To those who want to buy Bitcoin right now, beware because, in the next few days, we will see Bitcoin's price going down after this one. I just don't know how low it will be, but with what's happening right now, I believe that we might see higher lows in the next few weeks during the short-term.
Right now, we have 1 BTC = 57.5K USD and there are no signs of adjustment. This surprised me a lot because we could have a new ATH before the halving, which has never happened in history. I think this comes from the Spot ETF and the upcoming halving.

I do not predict BTC's reversal in the next few days or weeks, I just believe that in the long term BTC price will continue to increase. The rise in price of memecoins is also triggering FOMO in the market, many people are talking about BTC and looking for opportunities in crypto. Perhaps the market has entered the BELIEF stage.