Altcoins Talks - Cryptocurrency Forum
Crypto Discussion Forum => Cryptocurrency Trading => Cryptocurrency Price Speculations => Topic started by: pawel7777 on June 27, 2024, 06:30:21 PM
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I don't see this topic being discussed anywhere, but the possible reason (or just one of the factors) behind the recent drop in price, could be the scare of Mt Gox distributing anything from 65,000 to 140,000 bitcoins to their creditors, starting from July. People fear that a lot of that could be dumped on the market, causing the price to drop.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mt-gox-finally-repaying-customers-155925395.html
https://www.theblock.co/post/302217/jpmorgan-mt-gox-bitcoin
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They will not dumped entirely into the spot market, creditors also know about the volume and liquidity of the exchange even as big as binance. If not, they will only get an average price that is not much different at 2014. There are several alternative markets where activity will not influence prices as significantly as the OTC market, the rest may prefer to hold and sell periodically.
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Its impact on the price would be catastrophic if it were sold all at once, but that will not happen soon. To compare how bad it is, Luna Foundation Guard held reserves of 80,394 bitcoin worth approximately $2.4 billion, which were disposed of in a short period, leading to a correction in the price by 60%, let alone 65,000. to 140,000 bitcoins.
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I have said this before somewhere else, and I will say it here again, selling all of 140k all at once would still not make a big dent. Don't get me wrong, I neither believe that all 140k would be sold all at once because I think some people will keep it, but I also believe that it will definitely make the price go down. But we are forgetting one thing, we have billions bought and sold every single day, so this would not make it like some crypto winter for us, it will be recovered. Whatever price it falls to, that will be another base and from there we will start to go back up eventually, so there is nothing to worry about.
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I have said this before somewhere else, and I will say it here again, selling all of 140k all at once would still not make a big dent. Don't get me wrong, I neither believe that all 140k would be sold all at once because I think some people will keep it, but I also believe that it will definitely make the price go down. But we are forgetting one thing, we have billions bought and sold every single day, so this would not make it like some crypto winter for us, it will be recovered. Whatever price it falls to, that will be another base and from there we will start to go back up eventually, so there is nothing to worry about.
I think you might be right. d5000 has done a good work of putting things in perspective in this Bitcointalk topic:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5500934
I might as well just repost it here:
So you are panicking due to MtGox's payments in July? With 140.000 [btc] flooding the market, driving the price of Bitcoin to 0, or just close to that?
Well, think again.
(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/06/24/hf36o.png)
Today the Bitcoin trading volume was around 45 billion. As you can see here in the historical data (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data), in most of the past days the Bitcoin trade volume was around 20-30 billion on weekdays and 10-15 billion on weekends (ignore the volume today, it's incomplete), with one exception being June 19 with 41 billion.
We can thus safely assume that 10 to 15 billion more Bitcoins were traded today than on a "normal" day of the week.
Now, were these coins bought or sold? Well, the price is telling us that the vast majority were sell orders.
The 140,000 Gox[btc] are currently (at ~$60.000) worth slightly less than 9 billion.
This means that today the panicking Bitcoin holders sold more coins than all the Goxcoins that will be sold in July.
Draw your own conclusions :)
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I have said this before somewhere else, and I will say it here again, selling all of 140k all at once would still not make a big dent. Don't get me wrong, I neither believe that all 140k would be sold all at once because I think some people will keep it, but I also believe that it will definitely make the price go down. But we are forgetting one thing, we have billions bought and sold every single day, so this would not make it like some crypto winter for us, it will be recovered. Whatever price it falls to, that will be another base and from there we will start to go back up eventually, so there is nothing to worry about.
Its not about the people will sell once or not but depend on will Mt.Gox keep their promise to refund more than 140k btc to its users?
It big amount for Mt.Gox and they have made many fake news when distribution their user fund almost several years ago.
Actually how many bitcoin sold never make bitcoin dump drastically and has moment for recovering raise more higher price in the future, when any exchange collapse and sold many bitcoin but can't make bitcoin dropping drastically, indeed doubt with Mt.Gox will distribute or not over 140 bitcoin fund I believe never make bitcoin down.
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I think you might be right. d5000 has done a good work of putting things in perspective in this Bitcointalk topic:
The effect of panic was neglected, as panic can inflate liquidity and it is withdrawn in a short time, and if the price is at the peak of the price and the beginning of the downward trend, it may lead everyone to sell. The snowball will roll from 9 billion to 30 billion easily, and this amount is definitely not small or can be ignored.
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I don't see this topic being discussed anywhere, but the possible reason (or just one of the factors) behind the recent drop in price, could be the scare of Mt Gox distributing anything from 65,000 to 140,000 bitcoins to their creditors, starting from July. People fear that a lot of that could be dumped on the market, causing the price to drop.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mt-gox-finally-repaying-customers-155925395.html
https://www.theblock.co/post/302217/jpmorgan-mt-gox-bitcoin
what I want to ask here is that do this event is the reason why we have a dumping market since last week? is this mt gox distribution brings the market into a bloody week?
and that 30 thousand bitcoin that has been deposit into unknown wallet? still looking for the main reason why this market dumped as this when we are expecting a bullying in 3rd quarter .
I don't see this topic being discussed anywhere, but the possible reason (or just one of the factors) behind the recent drop in price, could be the scare of Mt Gox distributing anything from 65,000 to 140,000 bitcoins to their creditors, starting from July. People fear that a lot of that could be dumped on the market, causing the price to drop.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mt-gox-finally-repaying-customers-155925395.html
https://www.theblock.co/post/302217/jpmorgan-mt-gox-bitcoin
still not clear to what is the main reason of this dumping and now we are growing again as standing to 56k as of the typing .
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It is all continuous with the dumping and going down of the market, but he think it is generally a cycle and since this is the drop and all is red I think this is the best Time to buy. We should Reimagine this into A good thing because it is for sale.
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I don't see this topic being discussed anywhere, but the possible reason (or just one of the factors) behind the recent drop in price, could be the scare of Mt Gox distributing anything from 65,000 to 140,000 bitcoins to their creditors, starting from July. People fear that a lot of that could be dumped on the market, causing the price to drop.
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This just shows that that most of the investors are still affected by the news that's popping out of their computers.
I mean there's nothing to be scared of if you will ask me. The term "scare" that they used caused panic towards other investors hence, they sold their Bitcoins probably pushing its price even lower.
Well, there's nothing we can do about it, but to take advantage of what's happening. If people are scared, let's take the opportunity to buy even more. People feel fear that the price could drop even more. Let's buy even more. Be a contrarian. As for Mt. Gox, it's good that they're starting to pay those who lost their money more than a decade ago.
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Has anyone of you ever encounter a user who actually are from that Mt. Gox time and admit he received his coins? Because to me, if I got back my coins that I bought less than $100, I more than likely not to sell them.
Non a good decision especially if you already have adjusted yourself in the current economic condition. They should buy back when the price goes 52k.
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Has anyone of you ever encounter a user who actually are from that Mt. Gox time and admit he received his coins? Because to me, if I got back my coins that I bought less than $100, I more than likely not to sell them.
Non a good decision especially if you already have adjusted yourself in the current economic condition. They should buy back when the price goes 52k.
Recently are there any one receiving the bitcoin refund from Mt.Gox? the Mt.Gox wallet get movement by sending bitcoin to other wallet and become bad news make bitcoin drop significant yesterday and I think they will refund their user bitcoin fund. I don't sure with any other Mt.Gox user if get refund back keep hold bitcoin because reach much profitable since Mt.Gox get collapse their bitcoin fund have lower price and right now up drastically get much profit for selling it.
But you make goo decision keep holding bitcoin until break out to $100k but do you have good news when the refund sending or Mt.Gox make fake news agaian?
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Without a doubt, the recent distribution of MT. Gox is an influential part of the market decline we are witnessing and some of it seems normal to me. MT. Gox has taken many years to return Bitcoins, meaning that many users, tired of so much time, may have decided to sell and forget about it while others may have decided to keep their coins.
For those who doubt the return of those Bitcoins, I recommend reading this article (and its links) to learn more about the recent movements of MT. Gox:
Mt Gox moves nearly 47,229 BTC ahead of $9 billion payout (https://www.theblock.co/post/303586/mt-gox-moves-nearly-47229-btc-ahead-of-9-billion-payout)
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People fear that a lot of that could be dumped on the market, causing the price to drop.
The people who are afraid are those who still respond to FUD. Like I have said before, the charts are a good place to base your confidence in. Take a look at them; they do not lie. Bitcoin is still bullish.
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People fear that a lot of that could be dumped on the market, causing the price to drop.
The people who are afraid are those who still respond to FUD. Like I have said before, the charts are a good place to base your confidence in. Take a look at them; they do not lie. Bitcoin is still bullish.
Maybe we should provide more graphs with a duration scale of how many days which assumes that Bitcoin is still bullish, because so far on several graph scales provided from price increases starting from prices below $20k, Bitcoin has entered the bearish season, so it has become a thing which is normal when a few days ago many coin prices collapsed and were unstable. New traders need to be informed that the charts displayed are sometimes easily manipulated by whales.
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The people who are afraid are those who still respond to FUD. Like I have said before, the charts are a good place to base your confidence in. Take a look at them; they do not lie. Bitcoin is still bullish.
Yeah, looking right at them, dropping like a stone from 63k down to 53k and only 2000 coins out of the whole chest of 140 000 have been moved to only two exchanges!
Has anyone of you ever encounter a user who actually are from that Mt. Gox time and admit he received his coins? Because to me, if I got back my coins that I bought less than $100, I more than likely not to sell them.
Plenty of reports of users getting their accounts credited in coins, check the mtgox subreddit, it's the most active source.
As for your if, you're still talking from your own perspective, if you had $400 000 coming from MtGox and for 4 years you would have been living paycheck to paycheck on $1000 a month you would still keep it? Let's be serious! A lot of them will spend that money, it's money you never thought you would be getting back, you waited 11 years for a 20x gain, what are they going to do, wait another 4 years for 2x?
It's easy money for a lot, and easy money is spent pretty fast!
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Let's be serious! A lot of them will spend that money, it's money you never thought you would be getting back, you waited 11 years for a 20x gain, what are they going to do, wait another 4 years for 2x?
Yes, I believe most of them will sell their Bitcoin and dump the market because even if Bitcoin drops to $40k they'll still keep selling their bitcoins and convert those into stable coins like USDT and then withdraw it as fiat.
Those people have waited for a long time and now they're getting something that they never expected to get or were only hopeful for it. They will rush sell the Bitcoin as soon as they receive it.
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Yes, I believe most of them will sell their Bitcoin and dump the market because even if Bitcoin drops to $40k they'll still keep selling their bitcoins and convert those into stable coins like USDT and then withdraw it as fiat.
Those people have waited for a long time and now they're getting something that they never expected to get or were only hopeful for it. They will rush sell the Bitcoin as soon as they receive it.
Unfortunately, most of Mt.Gox users not has ideas keep holding their bitcoin assets refund after long time waiting for and earned much profitable behind current bitcoin price get up drastically since first time their bitcoin assets loss after the exchange collapse.
But not clearly when the refunding moment for Mt.Gox users although jave activities with wallet transfer and make bitcoin get correction last three days ago. I don't sure about Mt.Gox will refund for their user in once time regarding how much expensive the current bitcoin price now.
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Yes, I believe most of them will sell their Bitcoin and dump the market because even if Bitcoin drops to $40k they'll still keep selling their bitcoins and convert those into stable coins like USDT and then withdraw it as fiat.
Those people have waited for a long time and now they're getting something that they never expected to get or were only hopeful for it. They will rush sell the Bitcoin as soon as they receive it.
Not all the creditors care about Bitcoin market, they only want to get their money again. So, they have no problem to sell their Bitcoin at any price. Sure, they may keep selling even if Bitcoin drops under $50k. They don't want to wait a longer time to get their money, so it looks like very possible to see red market in the next few months. I heard that MT GOX will distribute it until October.
However, there should be few of them probably to keep the Bitcoin. Those creditors who understand well the potential of Bitcoin, they may consider to keep until Bitcoin to reach again a new ATH.
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Yes, I believe most of them will sell their Bitcoin and dump the market because even if Bitcoin drops to $40k they'll still keep selling their bitcoins and convert those into stable coins like USDT and then withdraw it as fiat.
Those people have waited for a long time and now they're getting something that they never expected to get or were only hopeful for it. They will rush sell the Bitcoin as soon as they receive it.
Why though? If they've already written that money off, why would they be desperate to sell immediately at any price? Would you do that?
I could argue the other way - since those bitcoins are likely just unexpected extra funds for most of the creditors, they can afford to hold them speculatively and wait for the most optimal time to sell.
Not to mention that most of those creditors are Bitcoin early adopters, so likely to know about 4-year cycles etc.
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Why though? If they've already written that money off, why would they be desperate to sell immediately at any price? Would you do that?
I could argue the other way - since those bitcoins are likely just unexpected extra funds for most of the creditors, they can afford to hold them speculatively and wait for the most optimal time to sell.
Not to mention that most of those creditors are Bitcoin early adopters, so likely to know about 4-year cycles etc.
Age is what determines this. Whoever invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago will be at least 18 years old at that time, and at that time he will try to enjoy even a small portion of the free money that he will receive, especially after all this waiting. Therefore, if the distribution begins, most of them will sell this Bitcoin. A small percentage will hodling 25% or more.
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Why though? If they've already written that money off, why would they be desperate to sell immediately at any price? Would you do that?
They haven't written that money off cause if they did they wouldn't have gone through 10 years of sending letters, voting and approving the rehabilitation plan of the trustee. They fought and spent time for that money, so they see it as a reward for the time spent battling! Besides, it's 20x what they had previously, it's like winning the lottery, how many people that won the lottery you know to not having spent a dime?
Not to mention that most of those creditors are Bitcoin early adopters, so likely to know about 4-year cycles etc.
You do know a lot of those early adopters are also like in their 50-60 by now, right?
Andreas is 52, Gavin 58, and even Karperless and Shrem are in their 40s!
So how many 4 year cycles do you want these people to wait? And how do you know there will be another cycle?
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Age is what determines this. Whoever invested in Bitcoin 10 years ago will be at least 18 years old at that time, and at that time he will try to enjoy even a small portion of the free money that he will receive, especially after all this waiting. Therefore, if the distribution begins, most of them will sell this Bitcoin. A small percentage will hodling 25% or more.
You do know a lot of those early adopters are also like in their 50-60 by now, right?
Andreas is 52, Gavin 58, and even Karperless and Shrem are in their 40s!
So how many 4 year cycles do you want these people to wait? And how do you know there will be another cycle?
I wasn't talking about holding forever but just waiting for a more optimal time to sell, as everyone is expecting the bull run is yet to come.
It's not like all those creditors have lost all their money and means of income and have been living in poverty for the last decade.
I'm in a somewhat similar situation patiently waiting for my money from another bankrupt entity, BlockFi. Unfortunately, I'm to receive cash not crypto, but if I was to receive crypto I wouldn't be rushing to sell. So maybe I'm just projecting my own approach onto others.
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I wasn't talking about holding forever but just waiting for a more optimal time to sell, as everyone is expecting the bull run is yet to come.
In terms of revenue if Btc reaches 100k they would look at 30x instead of 20x, a 50% increase to wait more....without knowing it will happen as no cycles are not guaranteed and not knowing when it will happen!
Let's see from the perspective of a long-time holder, let's say 2016 ;)
I could have sold in 2021 at 68k, I could sell 3 years later now at 57k, of course, I have time and I made my decision, but how about someone who sees the opportunity passing and was not able to do it, the frustration would be in this case!
It's not like all those creditors have lost all their money and means of income and have been living in poverty for the last decade.
Nobody is saying every! But trying to minimize it at 10-20% is also not really going to happen:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/one-in-three-americans-who-get-an-inheritance-blow-it-2015-09-03
and this included real estate and hard property, not money already available to spend!
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Maybe creditors will not sell their Bitcoins right after they received it. It's also cause fear to all investors, that's why most of the time when there's a bad news about crypto the market will fall. So I think it's better to sell some of your invest and reinvest it a discounted price when we hear obvious news that can really affect the price negatively.
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However, there should be few of them probably to keep the Bitcoin. Those creditors who understand well the potential of Bitcoin, they may consider to keep until Bitcoin to reach again a new ATH.
I don't think that any of them will think about keeping their Bitcoin even for a day. Most of them have been waiting to get credited and as soon as they get credited they'll keep dumping their holding at market and that can affect the value of Bitcoin to some extent.
In order to protect the current conditions of the market, Mt. GOX should refund them slowly like 5000 Bitcoin or 10000 Bitcoin per month.
Why though? If they've already written that money off, why would they be desperate to sell immediately at any price? Would you do that?
They'll sell it because they weren't able to sell it before as they were waiting to have those and once they get those Bitcoin in their hands they'll most probably sell it off than holding it to get a better values.
I believe for some people 2x to 10x is more than enough and those people are getting around 50x to 55x depending on the value of Bitcoin then why would they even think about holding an asset with which they can get that multiplayer instantly.
I know they have waited for it but that wasn't in their control but now they won't even consider anything else than selling those coins at market rate. If I were at their place then I would also sell my Bitcoin at market rate because that would give me 50x return on my investment which's more than enough for me.
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Yes, I believe most of them will sell their Bitcoin and dump the market because even if Bitcoin drops to $40k they'll still keep selling their bitcoins and convert those into stable coins like USDT and then withdraw it as fiat.
Those people have waited for a long time and now they're getting something that they never expected to get or were only hopeful for it. They will rush sell the Bitcoin as soon as they receive it.
I saw this today on X platform.
Germany Government Wallet #Bitcoin Balance:
DATE. No. of BTC
June 17: 49,878
June 24: 47,178
June 30: 46,191
July 1: 44,691
July 2: 43,458
July 3: 43,358
July 4: 42,273
July 5: 40,526
July 6: 38,826
July 8: 27,460
July 9: 22,845
Source: https://x.com/offshorehodl/status/1810656686765400306
The German government are selling everyday and despite the hard set, the Bitcoin isn't no longer dumping, in fact today it has show strong bounce. Those this means that if Mt.gox exchange finally distribute their own coins to owners, it is possible that we might not dump the way things are looking and if it indeed happens, then I think the market is going to be bullish again.
I just hope that any bad omen doesn't happen again like Government and their ways of manipulating the public into dumping their bags in the market.
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I feel like we are talking in circles and not really improving anything on the long run. We should consider that its going to change a lot more, and we will do differently with time. I think it should be noted down that we are going to see a lot of people sell because of this news more than people who would sell after they receive their bitcoins. This doesn't mean that we are going to end up with anything good, it just means that people should not be this afraid of it. I know this was talked about a million times before, but we are failing to keep this people protected and not fearing, we need to figure out to make sure to these people that even if all 140k was sold at once, we can recover easily.
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(...) but how about someone who sees the opportunity passing and was not able to do it, the frustration would be in this case!
If we are to enter the territory of reading the minds of the creditors - it could go both ways. Some of them could indeed be frustrated (which does not necessarily mean they would now perceive bitcoins as a hot potato), but those who accepted the loss early on, could see Mt Gox payouts as a bonus and might choose to hold to them for a little bit longer.
The rational position is to discount the past completely. It doesn't matter how much they bought it for or how long they've been waiting. What matters is you're right here, right now, with X amount of btc in your hands, and need to assess whether it's a better idea to hold it till it goes up or to exchange it for $.
My guesstimation is that more than half would choose to hold.
Of course, if one is in financial hardship and needs to cash out, that's a different story.
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The rational position is to discount the past completely. It doesn't matter how much they bought it for or how long they've been waiting. What matters is you're right here, right now, with X amount of btc in your hands, and need to assess whether it's a better idea to hold it till it goes up or to exchange it for $.
What I can confirm is that they'll sell a little to secure the initial caps, let's say 100x of it with various calculations like inflation every year and I think it only takes a few fractions of bitcoins from their dozens.
The creditors of Mt. Gox has likely been fully identified by the local authorities especially taxation, they will be thinking about strategies to cash in their profits (well it could take longer).
Fair speculation. :)
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Source: https://x.com/offshorehodl/status/1810656686765400306
The German government are selling everyday and despite the hard set, the Bitcoin isn't no longer dumping, in fact today it has show strong bounce.
We don't know if they are selling!
They moved coins to an exchange, that's all we know, the coins might be sitting in their account or in the cold storage of that exchange and they might have dumped them all, half of them or maybe none!
The only thing that can confirm the sale is over is a statement from the Bundeskriminalamt and the amount they have obtained from it!
(...) but how about someone who sees the opportunity passing and was not able to do it, the frustration would be in this case!
If we are to enter the territory of reading the minds of the creditors - it could go both ways. Some of them could indeed be frustrated (which does not necessarily mean they would now perceive bitcoins as a hot potato), but those who accepted the loss early on, could see Mt Gox payouts as a bonus and might choose to hold to them for a little bit longer.
Yup, that's the thing, the first one would need to enter their minds and think like them and ignore what your own way of thought is and what your interests right now are, so think completely from their point of view and we don't have that much info on them to even know where to start.
That's why I won't label them as a group, and not put a label.
The me right now would not sell, the me of 2013 getting scammed in such a huge way might have not bought a single coin back and is now waiting for the funds just to dump them in envy!
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Maybe creditors will not sell their Bitcoins right after they received it. It's also cause fear to all investors, that's why most of the time when there's a bad news about crypto the market will fall. So I think it's better to sell some of your invest and reinvest it a discounted price when we hear obvious news that can really affect the price negatively.
The problem is that after so many years of waiting and uncertainty, the people who now receive their Bitcoins may not have been involved with cryptocurrencies for a long time and will sell their coins when they receive them. Although I suppose that not all users will do it and possibly the majority will sell one part and keep the other. It's also worth noting that when Mt. Gox closed permanently, in February 2014, Bitcoin was priced around $830. If we compare it with the current value, the difference is enormous and can tempt many users to sell.
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The German government are selling everyday and despite the hard set, the Bitcoin isn't no longer dumping, in fact today it has show strong bounce. Those this means that if Mt.gox exchange finally distribute their own coins to owners, it is possible that we might not dump the way things are looking and if it indeed happens, then I think the market is going to be bullish again.
I just hope that any bad omen doesn't happen again like Government and their ways of manipulating the public into dumping their bags in the market.
I totally appreciate the evaluation of the Bitcoin market, which you have provided, as well as understand your fears about the government being able to manipulate the market. In this regard, it can be agreed that the market as we know it can really be totally unpredictable and possibly swayed by certain factors. As for the present situation, we might as well watch the further evolution of the situation and check whether the distribution of Mt. Gox's bitcoins will have a certain reflection in the market. Anyways, it would be wise to better conduct a research on your own and then decide what kind of risk and threat you can handle. So let's just folllow the market in terms of trends and updates and just be optimistic that the market would take a bullish turn after it.
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Maybe creditors will not sell their Bitcoins right after they received it. It's also cause fear to all investors, that's why most of the time when there's a bad news about crypto the market will fall. So I think it's better to sell some of your invest and reinvest it a discounted price when we hear obvious news that can really affect the price negatively.
The problem is that after so many years of waiting and uncertainty, the people who now receive their Bitcoins may not have been involved with cryptocurrencies for a long time and will sell their coins when they receive them. Although I suppose that not all users will do it and possibly the majority will sell one part and keep the other. It's also worth noting that when Mt. Gox closed permanently, in February 2014, Bitcoin was priced around $830. If we compare it with the current value, the difference is enormous and can tempt many users to sell.
That's a valid point and it's absolutely worth noting. Some of the long and waited users might have lost interest and thereby left the cryptocurrency space, so selling the Bitcoins as soon as they get them might as well be the only option they'll have. Furthermore, the price increase over the last three years alone has risen from $830 to current prices, and this may make many wish to sell their share. But as you rightly pointed out, some of the users would prefer to keep a portion of their Bitcoins during this time, especially if they are more enlightened about the cryptocurrency market during the wait. The effect of Mt. Gox’s bitcoin distribution is still unknown and unpredictable, which makes it difficult to predict what it'll really hold, so I guess we'll all just sit back and watch.
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We don't know if they are selling!
They moved coins to an exchange, that's all we know, the coins might be sitting in their account or in the cold storage of that exchange and they might have dumped them all, half of them or maybe none!
If I'm not wrong then they're selling those coins. Either they're selling those coins directly to those exchanges in order to protect the value of Bitcoin or they're slowly selling those bitcoins to not make the market highly dumped.
They previously might have thought that selling all their Bitcoin won't impact its value but after selling 10k Bitcoin they noticed huge dump in market and that's why they might have made plans to do something that may not affect the value of Bitcoin to high extent.
There is not point keeping their Bitcoin in cold storage of an exchange if I'm not wrong. They're surely doing something which may help them to convert their Bitcoin into fiat without impacting the value of Bitcoin.
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If I'm not wrong then they're selling those coins.
Nobody knows what they are doing!
They could have sold 20,000 or 200 or those coins, there is a company that is in charge of that, and only they and probably high-rank officials from the BAK know that everything is speculation.
There is not point keeping their Bitcoin in cold storage of an exchange if I'm not wrong.
Again, the government entrusted a company to do their bidding, what the company's strategy is how much of those funds are really for sale, and how much may be just moved to a custodian service like Coinbase and Bitgo offer is just speculation!
Besides, the whole tracking thing is getting stupid:
https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/germany
(https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/07/11/og7Pg.png)
5000 BTC outflow from the German government to.....the German government ;)
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Source: https://x.com/offshorehodl/status/1810656686765400306
The German government are selling everyday and despite the hard set, the Bitcoin isn't no longer dumping, in fact today it has show strong bounce. Those this means that if Mt.gox exchange finally distribute their own coins to owners, it is possible that we might not dump the way things are looking and if it indeed happens, then I think the market is going to be bullish again.
It is good that the German Government sold everyday but the price of Bitcoin can survive above $50k. So, we have 2 issues, MT Gox and German Government which moved their Bitcoins recently. However, it won't affect much the market again, the dump looks over. You're right, it seems we have a strong bounce and may continue for the next few days. I just hope the next correction won't be very huge anymore.
I just hope that any bad omen doesn't happen again like Government and their ways of manipulating the public into dumping their bags in the market.
This bad news will be over but we may have another bad news. However, I just expect that there will be good news as well. We need good news to trigger more demand on the market. Investors must be optimistic again to have crypto assets.
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Let's be serious! A lot of them will spend that money, it's money you never thought you would be getting back, you waited 11 years for a 20x gain, what are they going to do, wait another 4 years for 2x?
Yes, I believe most of them will sell their Bitcoin and dump the market because even if Bitcoin drops to $40k they'll still keep selling their bitcoins and convert those into stable coins like USDT and then withdraw it as fiat.
Those people have waited for a long time and now they're getting something that they never expected to get or were only hopeful for it. They will rush sell the Bitcoin as soon as they receive it.
The point is that, those people getting back they entire capital pluses the gains that the bitcoin have accumulated in the last eleven years is something huge that no one will be waiting any longer to take the profits that their Bitcoin have earn for them, now is the best time for them and even if Bitcoin should drop below 50k to 40k and they next coin distribution is done, they still going to sell.
I don't see anything wrong with the whole thing, all that those that bought Bitcoin at price above 50k should do is to have long term perspective for their investment and ready to give more time, let the GOXs have the floor for now and after all the bitcoins owe to them are distributed, it will be time for the ordinary bitcoin investors.
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Honestly, constantly bickering and complaining and worrying about this won't change anything. On top of that, we are talking about a situation that is getting a little bit weird, because we are talking about something that will take some time, and its not that easy, we should consider how this could be moved to another subject, and with that in mind maybe we could realize that no matter how long this takes, or no matter how hard it may sound, eventually all of this will be over one way or another. So we could end up going back up again, and if you are holding then you are going to make money once more.
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Honestly, constantly bickering and complaining and worrying about this won't change anything.
But we might just as well speculate on it, the market is pretty boring and if we go by the inevitable then we could stop talking about everything as no single individual on this forum has enough power to try and turn the tide when billions are involved, Maybe Buttercup coming back to BT and saying he will donate 25% of his ETH or he will switch ETH back to PoW might change a thing but we can't do anything else than speculate.
This bad news will be over but we may have another bad news.
Don't look too far away, the US gov still has 200k that will eventually be for sale!
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Honestly, constantly bickering and complaining and worrying about this won't change anything. On top of that, we are talking about a situation that is getting a little bit weird, because we are talking about something that will take some time, and its not that easy, we should consider how this could be moved to another subject, and with that in mind maybe we could realize that no matter how long this takes, or no matter how hard it may sound, eventually all of this will be over one way or another. So we could end up going back up again, and if you are holding then you are going to make money once more.
It's not bad to do the discussion anyways but sometimes I think whenever Bitcoin isn't going up and it's shows some bear sign all of a sudden, the bears begin to Fud the market in a slight manner they hear bad news about Bitcoin. Haven't you noticed that all this drama doesn't occur during the bull run, it's because they don't have power over it but now, it's their time to enjoy the liquidity in the market to short it, some whales has an open order of shirt position since $70k and still holding it.
I think MT. Gox is not helping the situation. They should save this nonsense they are always doing about distribution until it's certain and let's the market rest and people that are optimistic about the distribution knows exact date of having their Bitcoin, it's not hard isn't.
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I don't see anything wrong with the whole thing, all that those that bought Bitcoin at price above 50k should do is to have long term perspective for their investment and ready to give more time
Yes, that's the best way I believe in such situations. The German government has somehow sold their 50k Bitcoin by following a good strategy and that doesn't impacted the value of Bitcoin too much.
I hope that Mt. Gox's crediting will also not impact the value of Bitcoin too much and the number of Bitcoin that Mt. Gox is holding for creditors will safely be part of the circulating supply once they start selling it.
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Yes, that's the best way I believe in such situations. The German government has somehow sold their 50k Bitcoin by following a good strategy and that doesn't impacted the value of Bitcoin too much.
I hope that Mt. Gox's crediting will also not impact the value of Bitcoin too much and the number of Bitcoin that Mt. Gox is holding for creditors will safely be part of the circulating supply once they start selling it.
We have a better situation if the German government has sold all their Bitcoin. The current price of Bitcoin looks quite well, it stays above $57k and seems to try jump above $60k in the near future. If we have no more bad news, I think we can see again another rally of Bitcoin price. I just hope we can reach a new ATH of Bitcoin in Q4 of 2024, so it can improve the optimism of crypto investors.
MT Gox news already bring impacts to the market. You can see the price of Bitcoin dropping to $53k in a few days ago. Although there are still many Bitcoin to transfer to the creditors, I think it won't influence the market very significantly as in the few days ago. The market looks better, I hope it is the sign of another green market.
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I just hope we can reach a new ATH of Bitcoin in Q4 of 2024, so it can improve the optimism of crypto investors.
The German government has done its Bitcoin selling and now the market is recovering. The current value of Bitcoin is over $63k and that's a very good sign.
If Bitcoin continues to move upwards or reaches $65k today then there's chance that we may see new ATH in Q4. of 2024.
I believe that Mt. Gox crediting could somehow stop Bitcoin's price from reach a new ATH but after that we may have no problems and then Bitcoin may reach a new ATH.
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The German government has done its Bitcoin selling and now the market is recovering. The current value of Bitcoin is over $63k and that's a very good sign.
If Bitcoin continues to move upwards or reaches $65k today then there's chance that we may see new ATH in Q4. of 2024.
I believe that Mt. Gox crediting could somehow stop Bitcoin's price from reach a new ATH but after that we may have no problems and then Bitcoin may reach a new ATH.
What you say depends on the number of creditors who decide to sell. At the moment the drop has not been too notable in terms of time and quantity, but with time, and the following Bitcoin shipments, the recovery could be slower. As I said, after so many years, it is possible that a part of those affected decide to keep their coins, while another part has "forgotten" about the world of cryptocurrencies and decides to sell as quickly as possible. Although something makes me think that the current value may influence the majority of creditors.
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I don't see anything wrong with the whole thing, all that those that bought Bitcoin at price above 50k should do is to have long term perspective for their investment and ready to give more time
Yes, that's the best way I believe in such situations. The German government has somehow sold their 50k Bitcoin by following a good strategy and that doesn't impacted the value of Bitcoin too much.
I hope that Mt. Gox's crediting will also not impact the value of Bitcoin too much and the number of Bitcoins that Mt. Gox is holding for creditors will safely be part of the circulating supply once they start selling it.
Exactly the point, only short-term speculators with no knowledge of how this kind of situation act on the price of bitcoin, because most old times bitcoin Investors won't pay any close attention to the immediate market reaction to such events, and always if you have been following the news, then you should be informed at what point the creditors are going to receive their credits and when to expect such reactions.
Only newbies will panic selling at such a time, but for investors like myself, I won't take any price action seriously since I have a long-term forecast for the market and if everything is equal I will expect a more stable and positive market when all these things are over.
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Only newbies will panic selling at such a time, but for investors like myself, I won't take any price action seriously since I have a long-term forecast for the market and if everything is equal I will expect a more stable and positive market when all these things are over.
Yes, the newbies and the ones with weak hands sell when they see that Bitcoin's price is going down while those who believe in Bitcoin will keep accumulating more in such times and holding their Bitcoin for long term.
Bitcoin is still cheap for some of us who believe it can reach or cross $1M in future and that's why those who sell Bitcoin for cheap values will surely regret when they see Bitcoin at $100k during the peak of this bull run.
You're a smart person that's why you won't sell your Bitcoin for cheap values or for some percentage of profit. Bitcoin is a coin for those investors who believe in HODLING concept not for those who want to earn 100% within a year or two.
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The German government has done its Bitcoin selling and now the market is recovering. The current value of Bitcoin is over $63k and that's a very good sign. If Bitcoin continues to move upwards or reaches $65k today then there's chance that we may see new ATH in Q4. of 2024.
Yep. German government has sold all their Bitcoin, the market has shown good signs. The price has been above $65k, the highest price today is $66k. Not sure if we can reach a new ATH in Q4 of 2024 but it looks like we will have another uptrend. I think we can have a chance to return to above $70k again in the next few weeks/months.
I believe that Mt. Gox crediting could somehow stop Bitcoin's price from reach a new ATH but after that we may have no problems and then Bitcoin may reach a new ATH.
If many of the creditors are trying to keep their Bitcoin, so there will be no bad impact on the market. It even leads to a positive impact on the market, it is because the investors realize that the creditors believe in the future of Bitcoin. So the demand of Bitcoin in the market will keep rising.
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If many of the creditors are trying to keep their Bitcoin, so there will be no bad impact on the market. It even leads to a positive impact on the market, it is because the investors realize that the creditors believe in the future of Bitcoin. So the demand of Bitcoin in the market will keep rising.
Not all Mt.Gox users will sell their entire BTC immediately upon receiving it because if they have a bit of understanding of the crypto market, they will likely know that we are only in the early stages of the bullrun and BTC price could reach higher price in the next few months. They may continue to hold until the end of the bullrun.
We will soon know more about the selling pressure from Mt.Gox users in the next few weeks. At least, after the German government's BTC sell-off event, we also know that there is still a lot of buying power in the market, enough to absorb the selling pressure of 50K BTC and quickly push BTC price above $60K. I hope the same thing will happen if we face selling pressure from Mt.Gox users.
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Not all Mt.Gox users will sell their entire BTC immediately upon receiving it because if they have a bit of understanding of the crypto market, they will likely know that we are only in the early stages of the bullrun and BTC price could reach higher price in the next few months. They may continue to hold until the end of the bullrun.
We will soon know more about the selling pressure from Mt.Gox users in the next few weeks. At least, after the German government's BTC sell-off event, we also know that there is still a lot of buying power in the market, enough to absorb the selling pressure of 50K BTC and quickly push BTC price above $60K. I hope the same thing will happen if we face selling pressure from Mt.Gox users.
I read that around 36% of all the funds have already been distributed, and apparently they either didn't get dumped immediately, or they have been dumped but the market managed to absorb them without significant impact on the price.
If anyone has any tracking info of how many of the distributed coins have been transferred to exchanges - please share, it would be nice to know (although transferring to exchange doesn't mean one intends to sell, some could use exchanges as wallets).
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It's amazing how we all expected a fall, but in fact this huge number of times Bitcoins were given to people did not affect the price. On the contrary! For the fourth week we have seen a green candle and it feels like the bulls are very serious. However, from my experience I feel that further growth is in great question, because the trend was broken - if you look at the weeks, but the local bottom was lower than the previous one, which means that the trend is broken.
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MT Gox has started its distribution and currently more than 41.5% of the total MT Gox debt of 141,686 BTC has been distributed. So it is only natural that the current BTC price immediately dropped and was stuck at $ 65,323. - $ 66,810.21. This price drop occurred in the last 24 hours with a total drop of more than -1.10% in 1 day. And maybe this will continue. In addition to the issue of MT Gox distribution, the market has also experienced a fairly deep correction after previously the BTC price was able to reach more than $ 70k.
And the distribution is still not finished. In the sense, MT Gox is still trying to distribute the BTC even until October. So we have to be prepared for all possibilities. because, MT Gox holders still want their assets back in BTC, not fiat.
Source:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/mt-gox-creditors-hold-41-percent-bitcoin-distribution
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
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It's amazing how we all expected a fall, but in fact this huge number of times Bitcoins were given to people did not affect the price.
It is because the creditors of MT Gox didn't sell their Bitcoin. If they sell the Bitcoin, no doubt it will bring big impacts to the price. I am sure the price may freefall, it may drop below $60k again. But they prefer to keep the Bitcoin, they may wait for a better time to sell their Bitcoin.
On the contrary! For the fourth week we have seen a green candle and it feels like the bulls are very serious. However, from my experience I feel that further growth is in great question, because the trend was broken - if you look at the weeks, but the local bottom was lower than the previous one, which means that the trend is broken.
We already have some months of uptrend, it is not so surprising if we have few months for downtrend. So far, I think the correction looks normal, we don't feel so worried. The best thing to do know is to keep holding and be patient. We may experience more decline if there is more bad news in the market. It is not only about the Bitcoin of MT Gox creditors but we may have other bad news. So, just keep our focus on the market and don't be easily influenced by the FUDs.
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If many of the creditors are trying to keep their Bitcoin, so there will be no bad impact on the market. It even leads to a positive impact on the market, it is because the investors realize that the creditors believe in the future of Bitcoin. So the demand of Bitcoin in the market will keep rising.
I am not sure with many creditor and rumor said above 40% most of them will hold or keep their bitcoin assets, current price since invested or Mt Gox hacked their bitcoin price very cheap and earn much profitable if sell their bitcoin right now.
Still not update yet with how much percent bitcoin have been refund by Mt Gox to their creditor have been full or not regarding bitcoin price still not stable yet until right now.
I think need one or two weeks later after refund issues of Mt Gox to their creditor have been over to see recovery of bitcoin will reach up back to higher price.
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It's amazing how we all expected a fall, but in fact this huge number of times Bitcoins were given to people did not affect the price.
It is because the creditors of MT Gox didn't sell their Bitcoin. If they sell the Bitcoin, no doubt it will bring big impacts to the price. I am sure the price may freefall, it may drop below $60k again. But they prefer to keep the Bitcoin, they may wait for a better time to sell their Bitcoin.
Yes, they haven't sold the Bitcoins they got from MT Gox yet, but believe me, there are ways to make many of them think about the rightness of holding digital gold further. As you have noticed, there is a lot of FUD now and there is no need to think that certain news will not cause a large-scale panic sale, including among holders of Bitcoins from MT Gox.
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Yes, they haven't sold the Bitcoins they got from MT Gox yet, but believe me, there are ways to make many of them think about the rightness of holding digital gold further. As you have noticed, there is a lot of FUD now and there is no need to think that certain news will not cause a large-scale panic sale, including among holders of Bitcoins from MT Gox.
At this point, I believe that MT Gox creditors already have enough experience (as well as a lot of patience) to allow FUD to affect or influence their decision whether or not to sell their Bitcoins. As I said in another post, it is very possible that they sold some coins, but comparing the value of when they "lost" their Bitcoins and the current value gives them a very broad and lucrative picture of how far Bitcoin could go.
I don't think creditors are afraid nor can FUD scare them, until recently they had nothing, now they have their investment multiplied and the experience of having remained in the market. That's why I don't think all those Bitcoins will be sold.