Altcoins Talks - Cryptocurrency Forum
Cryptocurrency Ecosystem => Bitcoin Forum => Topic started by: KingsDen on October 09, 2024, 02:56:07 PM
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The bitcoin historical order is broken. Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history. I think there's a new order we should discover. I realised that the old order is broken when we had a new ATH before halving, which was the positive effect of ETF.
Today we are expecting an Uptober as usual, but it's not happening. Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market. If Israel bomb Lebanon today, go and check BTC price. If Trump uses BTC, also go check the price.
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I won't hesitate to agree with you bud, except something different comes up later on, but currently, seems like indeed, we have a new order.
I remember that not too long ego, I created a thread on this forum where I asked the community here that, "what if the bull run we all are looking forward to is already behind us?" that is, what if the bull run came (during the approval of the bitcoin spot ETF) and gone, and right now, we are in another (supposedly) bear season?.
Alot of users after reading disagreed with me stating that the bull run is ahead.
Past history of bull runs shows that the price of bitcoin usually starts rising at the beginning or towards the end of October, and right now, we have not seen anything of such, today is 9th of October and I agree we still have time.
So, I suggest we wait till the end of this month to see if there will be any UPs in price that suggests a bull run is with us.
But if by the end of this month, market prices remain at their current level or go lower, then that is not a good sign and its indeed possible that things have changed completely.
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I would not agree that some things should be viewed strictly from a technical point of view, because past events should not be something that we will be guided by in the future, but they should be only one factor that can help us see the bigger picture.
Accordingly, October does not have to be special because it was before, and everything that happens in the world and according to some affects the price of BTC is only proof that it has become part of the global market that reacts to such events.
For me, BTC is in a very good position, for those who think differently, let them go back 2-3 years and say that today is not better than then. Historically, Bitcoin has achieved incredible success from 2009 to today, and the problem is that people always want more and faster.
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I won't hesitate to agree with you bud, except something different comes up later on, but currently, seems like indeed, we have a new order.
I remember that not too long ego, I created a thread on this forum where I asked the community here that, "what if the bull run we all are looking forward to is already behind us?" that is, what if the bull run came (during the approval of the bitcoin spot ETF) and gone, and right now, we are in another (supposedly) bear season?.
Alot of users after reading disagreed with me stating that the bull run is ahead.
Past history of bull runs shows that the price of bitcoin usually starts rising at the beginning or towards the end of October, and right now, we have not seen anything of such, today is 9th of October and I agree we still have time.
So, I suggest we wait till the end of this month to see if there will be any UPs in price that suggests a bull run is with us.
But if by the end of this month, market prices remain at their current level or go lower, then that is not a good sign and its indeed possible that things have changed completely.
I remain bullish on market growth over the next 6-12 months, as history tends to repeat itself until it's replaced by a new narrative. We've already seen earlier success in this cycle compared to previous ones: ATH before the Halving and BTC Spot ETF approval attracting billions from traditional investors.
I don't deny the possibility of a crypto winter having started, but I don't think it's the most likely scenario right now. Let's continue to monitor the market and discuss further. I'm still targeting a $150K-170K price zone for BTC in this bullrun.
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How could you be so sure about this? I am not entirely sure that the order is broken and we may see the four year cycle happen again. I rely on it and I think it will happen. This isn't going to be simple, we are going to end up with a lot of trouble in the future but at the moment we are not seeing any bad results and can't say that the order is broken yet. If things change and the next six months isn't some bull run then we can say the order is broken and its not the same, but we can't say it now, first we need to see whats going on to make sure we know whats happening and if its broken.
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Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history.
TA has always been misleading, even with traditional markets!
You can't expect the price to follow certain indicators just as you can't expect the world to go through the same pattern over and over again!
The world already has a fresh example of the limitation of TA when no model was able to see oil at a negative price, yet people still cling to those like they've grabbed Jesus by his foot.
How could you be so sure about this? I am not entirely sure that the order is broken and we may see the four year cycle happen again. I rely on it and I think it will happen.
And it will keep on happening every single 4-year interval from now till the world ends, right? ;D
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How could you be so sure about this? I am not entirely sure that the order is broken and we may see the four year cycle happen again. I rely on it and I think it will happen. This isn't going to be simple, we are going to end up with a lot of trouble in the future but at the moment we are not seeing any bad results and can't say that the order is broken yet. If things change and the next six months isn't some bull run then we can say the order is broken and its not the same, but we can't say it now, first we need to see whats going on to make sure we know whats happening and if its broken.
october isn't done yet in short. the old cycle could style happen.
but i can understand what OP is saying. its only BTC that had its bull run this year. it achieved its ATH and the altcoins are left out. we don't know it yet what could happen in the next few months or years but something big will happen because off the geopolitics going on.
whether supercycle will happen or its over and BTC failed to be adopted. all we know for sure is that online transactions is the future whether the world accepts crypto or we remain to stay the digital fiat we are yet to find out because the direction of whats happening is that the wars keeps going on.
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Have your own TA and let others follow their own strategy, they will learn the hard way. The real traders understands there can be other factors that affects the market other than their chart indicators that's why they have stop-losses.
~ Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market.
Yeah, I think nobody is disputing this.
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Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history.
TA has always been misleading, even with traditional markets!
You can't expect the price to follow certain indicators just as you can't expect the world to go through the same pattern over and over again!
The world already has a fresh example of the limitation of TA when no model was able to see oil at a negative price, yet people still cling to those like they've grabbed Jesus by his foot.
Humans find islr difficult to assimilate changes. Once it worked once, twice and three times, it will work for eternity. For new norm to be established, the new will work more than twice before it will be trusted.
How could you be so sure about this? I am not entirely sure that the order is broken and we may see the four year cycle happen again. I rely on it and I think it will happen.
And it will keep on happening every single 4-year interval from now till the world ends, right? ;D
It will keep happening, and even when it doesn't happen, we will pretend it has happened or hope it will happen.
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The bitcoin historical order is broken. Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history. I think there's a new order we should discover. I realised that the old order is broken when we had a new ATH before halving, which was the positive effect of ETF.
Today we are expecting an Uptober as usual, but it's not happening. Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market. If Israel bomb Lebanon today, go and check BTC price. If Trump uses BTC, also go check the price.
I do not think the history to repeat itself will not occur again. We see all-time high early because of the United States bitcoin ETF that was approved. But that does not mean that bitcoin will not still get to all-time high and that does not means that 2026 is not going to be the beginning of bear market.
Also do not just use a month to use history to analyse the market. If you are doing that, you can be disappointed. Go for long term analysis.
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A lot have really changed in this cycle and that is why bitcoin has become very hard to predict or be able to tell where the price is leading to actually. If we’re to base most of the happenings now on previous historical data, then this time around there’s a total change in everything and we should not be viewing the market on that aspect again.
Reaching the All time high before halving took place signifies a total shift in the market structure and direction, so we should expect that many things will not be the way it use to be. Both fundamental and technical aspects still occur in the market but we should not base anything now on past historical data, it has failed on that aspect, so we should begin to have a new view of the market and predict base on current trajectory of the market.
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When I read this title, I thought you were talking about a BTC New World Order. I don't know what to feel now :)
$60K is likely the support for Bitcoin now, so you don't have to worry about prices going down even more now that all of the ugly events of the world are out of the way.
A lot have really changed in this cycle and that is why bitcoin has become very hard to predict or be able to tell where the price is leading to actually. If we’re to base most of the happenings now on previous historical data, then this time around there’s a total change in everything and we should not be viewing the market on that aspect again.
Nobody is a wizard. People can't even predict the bitcoin price with high confidence.
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Maybe we are all here for a different speculations and sometimes our strategy will hit our guess and sometimes it isn't same with other investors. New order or not we'll find ways to see our startegy is getting more and more near to accurate even sometimes it was just luck.
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The bitcoin historical order is broken. Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history. I think there's a new order we should discover. I realised that the old order is broken when we had a new ATH before halving, which was the positive effect of ETF.
Today we are expecting an Uptober as usual, but it's not happening. Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market. If Israel bomb Lebanon today, go and check BTC price. If Trump uses BTC, also go check the price.
I can't agree more with you as currently the overall markets are going with the news and fundamental factors like the ones you mentioned. If Iran Bombs Israel, then a big war might start, and that might be bad for overall markets. Trump is playing with the market to get some votes (by playing, I mean manipulating crypto users).
Overall it's just a game in which one thing either get affected or on the other side it get used by another player. But in short, BTC will stay in the market, these are small temporary goosebumps that we should not care (if we are holding strong).
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The bitcoin historical order is broken. Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history. I think there's a new order we should discover. I realised that the old order is broken when we had a new ATH before halving, which was the positive effect of ETF.
i still think technical analysis can help especially when you are trading 1m, 1h, or 1 day patterns are still effective and holds significant potential for future gains but i agree that if we look at the bigger picture we might not have the same timeline anymore bitcoin has grown a lot these past few years and it is expected that it will not be as volatile as it used to be and it will not grow as much as it did back then when it was just $100 or less
Today we are expecting an Uptober as usual, but it's not happening. Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market. If Israel bomb Lebanon today, go and check BTC price. If Trump uses BTC, also go check the price.
i think both fundamental and technical analyses can be used both still just don’t completely depend on one kind of analysis and instead use multiple and various methods and tools
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I don't deny the possibility of a crypto winter having started, but I don't think it's the most likely scenario right now. Let's continue to monitor the market and discuss further. I'm still targeting a $150K-170K price zone for BTC in this bull run.
One thing is for sure, anything is possible with Bitcoin and although there can be historical precedents that we can use in predicting what can be but there is always no guarantee that they can be as we thought they should be. I am also looking forward for Bitcoin to use all the energy it has to get into the $150K zone in 2025...but I am always prepared for the worst and hoping for the best. There is no question that there is nothing we can do here as Bitcoin can be affected by factors even beyond the developments happening in the crypto market.
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And it will keep on happening every single 4-year interval from now till the world ends, right? ;D
It will keep happening, and even when it doesn't happen, we will pretend it has happened or hope it will happen.
Yeah, let's see if this works if I'll try 20 years from now to pay a few satoshi for a car since a Bitcoin will have to be at least 2.5 million by that time!
The unlimited growth coming just from wishful thinking has to stop, we need to look at the real world and realize that no asset can defy all the economics needed for that growth just because in the past it has shown incredible growth, It's one thing to go up from $1 to $1000 and different from $1k to 1 mil.
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Yes I agree, since Bitcoin broke the rule for the first time and rose to the peak before the halving I felt that we are facing a new system and different price cycles, perhaps the halving effect has started to fade and we now have a new influence on Bitcoin after the entry of ETF companies and large institutions.
Now Bitcoin has become part of the global market and is affected by geopolitical and economic events more than it is affected by technical analysis and studying previous patterns, perhaps we will also get relative stability in the price and it will range within this narrow range and not necessarily all those big fluctuations that we used to witness every four-year cycle will occur.
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The bitcoin historical order is broken. Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history. I think there's a new order we should discover. I realised that the old order is broken when we had a new ATH before halving, which was the positive effect of ETF.
Today we are expecting an Uptober as usual, but it's not happening. Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market. If Israel bomb Lebanon today, go and check BTC price. If Trump uses BTC, also go check the price.
I am also agree with this comment. We also know that bitcoin price is bitcoin is one of the best valuable crypto in cryptocurrency world. But sometimes it also be down, then some people remain in different way. Because they Couldn't want to understand in cryptocurrency market. We also saw that Iran and Israel were effect in cryptocurrency world. So i believe that in future bitcoin will attractive in new order.
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The bitcoin historical order is broken. Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history. I think there's a new order we should discover. I realised that the old order is broken when we had a new ATH before halving, which was the positive effect of ETF.
Today we are expecting an Uptober as usual, but it's not happening. Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market. If Israel bomb Lebanon today, go and check BTC price. If Trump uses BTC, also go check the price.
It's really the first time that we have seen a new all time high pre-halving and most likely it might have change the cycle a bit. Because if we look at the last cycle, by October, we should have a new all time high already.
Unfortunately, we almost did as the price goes to $68k-$69k, but it didn't have that much momentum to push to at least $70k. And if we did we could still be very much on the bullish state. Right now we had another correction and it might affect the price as we are just a week before the end of this month.
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It's really the first time that we have seen a new all time high pre-halving and most likely it might have change the cycle a bit. Because if we look at the last cycle, by October, we should have a new all time high already.
Yes, it is the first time in history that Bitcoin reached ATH before halving. We can't deny it was the impact of Bitcoin ETF.
For this month, it is not over yet. There is still a chance to get a new ATH. But if I'm trying to be more realistic, I assume Bitcoin price will be around $67k - $70k until the end of this month.
Unfortunately, we almost did as the price goes to $68k-$69k, but it didn't have that much momentum to push to at least $70k.
I think it will be $70k soon in this month. Sometimes it doesn't need any good news to have a momentum. It will increase gradually because people are enthusiastic with Bitcoin price toward the end of this year.
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The bitcoin historical order is broken. Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history. I think there's a new order we should discover. I realised that the old order is broken when we had a new ATH before halving, which was the positive effect of ETF.
Today we are expecting an Uptober as usual, but it's not happening. Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market. If Israel bomb Lebanon today, go and check BTC price. If Trump uses BTC, also go check the price.
It's really the first time that we have seen a new all time high pre-halving and most likely it might have change the cycle a bit. Because if we look at the last cycle, by October, we should have a new all time high already.
Unfortunately, we almost did as the price goes to $68k-$69k, but it didn't have that much momentum to push to at least $70k. And if we did we could still be very much on the bullish state. Right now we had another correction and it might affect the price as we are just a week before the end of this month.
almost everyone expects bitcoin price to touch $70K soon, but it seems like we are waiting for it to come true, Because I also hope to sell some of my potential coins to get a little profit if bitcoin price touches ATH again.
Anything can happen in crypto, when we wait for bitcoin price to go up, suddenly there is a correction and it goes down. So keep doing it according to the initial plan.
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The bitcoin historical order is broken. Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history. I think there's a new order we should discover. I realised that the old order is broken when we had a new ATH before halving, which was the positive effect of ETF.
Today we are expecting an Uptober as usual, but it's not happening. Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market. If Israel bomb Lebanon today, go and check BTC price. If Trump uses BTC, also go check the price.
It's really the first time that we have seen a new all time high pre-halving and most likely it might have change the cycle a bit. Because if we look at the last cycle, by October, we should have a new all time high already.
Unfortunately, we almost did as the price goes to $68k-$69k, but it didn't have that much momentum to push to at least $70k. And if we did we could still be very much on the bullish state. Right now we had another correction and it might affect the price as we are just a week before the end of this month.
almost everyone expects bitcoin price to touch $70K soon, but it seems like we are waiting for it to come true, Because I also hope to sell some of my potential coins to get a little profit if bitcoin price touches ATH again.
Anything can happen in crypto, when we wait for bitcoin price to go up, suddenly there is a correction and it goes down. So keep doing it according to the initial plan.
I do think the rally for BTC will be in 2025 for sure, even if now we will see some corrections here and there.
The break of the ATH is inevitable.
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Today we are expecting an Uptober as usual, but it's not happening. Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market. If Israel bomb Lebanon today, go and check BTC price. If Trump uses BTC, also go check the price.
What i noticed from the market nowadays is that they are mostly being influenced by the news surrounding the space that is why when Trump uses bitcoin or mentioned about it you see price soaring and when israel bomb the effect also affect the price, so to me you are correct because the sequence are not maintained anymore.
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One thing is for sure, anything is possible with Bitcoin and although there can be historical precedents that we can use in predicting what can be but there is always no guarantee that they can be as we thought they should be. I am also looking forward for Bitcoin to use all the energy it has to get into the $150K zone in 2025...but I am always prepared for the worst and hoping for the best. There is no question that there is nothing we can do here as Bitcoin can be affected by factors even beyond the developments happening in the crypto market.
In the investment journey, we should analyze and forecast, but what's more important than forecasting is reacting to the market at the right time. Large institutions have entered the crypto market and are very fond of BTC. I wouldn't be surprised if their high-frequency trading bots and professional manipulation plans will cause BTC cycle to change. But as an investor, I prefer to think about the optimistic scenario and the repetition of history rather than the bearish conspiracy theories ^^
We share the same $150K target for BTC in this cycle, but in case the trend reversal signal comes when BTC only reaches $100K, I think we'll still be ready to take partial profits to protect the profits we've worked hard for over the past 2-3 years of investing and enduring the devastation from the crypto winter.
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One thing is for sure, anything is possible with Bitcoin and although there can be historical precedents that we can use in predicting what can be but there is always no guarantee that they can be as we thought they should be. I am also looking forward for Bitcoin to use all the energy it has to get into the $150K zone in 2025...but I am always prepared for the worst and hoping for the best. There is no question that there is nothing we can do here as Bitcoin can be affected by factors even beyond the developments happening in the crypto market.
In the investment journey, we should analyze and forecast, but what's more important than forecasting is reacting to the market at the right time. Large institutions have entered the crypto market and are very fond of BTC. I wouldn't be surprised if their high-frequency trading bots and professional manipulation plans will cause BTC cycle to change. But as an investor, I prefer to think about the optimistic scenario and the repetition of history rather than the bearish conspiracy theories ^^
We share the same $150K target for BTC in this cycle, but in case the trend reversal signal comes when BTC only reaches $100K, I think we'll still be ready to take partial profits to protect the profits we've worked hard for over the past 2-3 years of investing and enduring the devastation from the crypto winter.
If the price of bitcoin only reaches 4100K I think we have already made a profit. So it all depends on the market conditions next year because I will also sell my bitcoin gradually starting from $90k, $95K, $100K and $125K. And if the price of bitcoin exceeds my highest target, I am grateful and I consider it not my fortune because I have to eliminate greedy emotions.
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If the price of bitcoin only reaches 4100K I think we have already made a profit.
Only 4100k? Only 4.5 million? ;D
Type the $ instead of the 4 or you toss everything off the table!
What i noticed from the market nowadays is that they are mostly being influenced by the news surrounding the space that is why when Trump uses bitcoin or mentioned about it you see price soaring and when israel bomb the effect also affect the price, so to me you are correct because the sequence are not maintained anymore.
Now I'm getting curious about what would happen when Trump bombs Lebanon or Syria, not that it would be a first!
It's not about just Bitcoin anymore, look at the stock market and you see that Bitcoin is 92% up one year while even SP500 is doing close to ETH at around 36%.
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The bitcoin historical order is broken. Do not so much rely on your technical analysis derived from history. I think there's a new order we should discover. I realised that the old order is broken when we had a new ATH before halving, which was the positive effect of ETF.
Today we are expecting an Uptober as usual, but it's not happening. Seems that fundamental is the chief controller of the market. If Israel bomb Lebanon today, go and check BTC price. If Trump uses BTC, also go check the price.
I have not heard of a ''New Order'' before, please confirm this is a new terminology or a crypto abbreviation, because I know that bitcoin has a circle, and the circle takes 4 years to complete.
As a trader, I think there is broken trends lines or widget patterns, not heard of new order being broken. As a matter of facts, we learn everyday, and wish you can explain more on this topic in next reply.
Now if you meant trend line broken, as a trader I am familiar with that market moving patterns, however, if such trends lines are broken, it requires some build up or minor corrections for the trends to bounce back.
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If the price of bitcoin only reaches 4100K I think we have already made a profit. So it all depends on the market conditions next year because I will also sell my bitcoin gradually starting from $90k, $95K, $100K and $125K. And if the price of bitcoin exceeds my highest target, I am grateful and I consider it not my fortune because I have to eliminate greedy emotions.
Cautious approach to the sales is also favored by Bitcoin owners, providing the sales at regular intervals and at set price levels. When let go from the desire to aim for higher prices we are able to stay balanced with emotions that we need for focusing on the set target price.
When the price goes beyond the target it is considerate to be thankful and deal with the results without getting overboard with greedy feelings. This works for me when it comes to experiencing long-term investment and consider the successes that has been made.