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Crypto Discussion Forum => Cryptocurrency Trading => Cryptocurrency Price Speculations => Topic started by: MrSpasybo on October 22, 2024, 10:31:25 AM

Title: Has BTC price broken out of a 6M long downward parallel channel? (2024.10.22)
Post by: MrSpasybo on October 22, 2024, 10:31:25 AM
I’m sharing some simple technical analysis for discussion purposes only. This is not investment advice. Your profits or losses are your own responsibility.

We've endured a rather dull 6 months in the crypto market, with BTC trading sideways and consolidating within the $50K-$70K zone. This is quite normal considering BTC robust rally from $25K on 2023.09.12 to $74K on 2024.03.13. This 6-month impulse wave typically corresponds to a 6-month correction wave, which is anticipated to conclude around 2024.09.

(https://www.tradingview.com/x/oEHjcSQi/)

We have witnessed the breakdown of a descending parallel channel after BTC price surpassed $67K on 2024.10.16. Currently, in my opinion, BTC price is retesting the upper boundary of the previous descending channel before continuing its upward momentum and aiming for a new ATH. This analysis would be invalid if BTC price drops below $60K.

(https://www.tradingview.com/x/K7E4uypg/)

Regarding the target for this impulse wave, I'm using parallel channels and Elliott waves count. Parallel channels suggest that BTC price could reach $140K-150K in Q1 of next year. Elliott wave count suggests that waves 4-5 will be equal in size to waves 0-1, so BTC could complete waves 4-5 at $100K.

(https://www.tradingview.com/x/UMMbn0jY/)

Summary: I believe BTC has broken out of its accumulation phase and has officially entered a new impulse wave to reach $100K zone.

I'm eager to get your perspectives on the current market conditions and your predictions for the future.
Title: Re: Has BTC price broken out of a 6M long downward parallel channel? (2024.10.22)
Post by: KryptoBull on October 23, 2024, 09:28:09 AM
Quote from: MrSpasybo on October 22, 2024, 10:31:25 AM
Regarding the target for this impulse wave, I'm using parallel channels and Elliott waves count. Parallel channels suggest that BTC price could reach $140K-150K in Q1 of next year. Elliott wave count suggests that waves 4-5 will be equal in size to waves 0-1, so BTC could complete waves 4-5 at $100K.

(https://www.tradingview.com/x/UMMbn0jY/)
Your market outlook is incredibly positive, and I hope the market will move exactly as you've predicted. Once BTC surpasses 100K USD, the entire market will be restless. We'll see a surge in KOLs, new projects launching, and many people suddenly becoming wealthy and sharing their exciting stories in the media.

We've experienced too many abnormal fluctuations over the past period. Currently, it seems like investors are starting to lose faith and lack the optimism to believe in price projections above 100K USD. However, I still firmly believe that 100K USD will happen this season, and 1M USD will come in the next 1-2 seasons.
Title: Re: Has BTC price broken out of a 6M long downward parallel channel? (2024.10.22)
Post by: MrSpasybo on October 23, 2024, 06:48:23 PM
Quote from: KryptoBull on October 23, 2024, 09:28:09 AM
Your market outlook is incredibly positive, and I hope the market will move exactly as you've predicted. Once BTC surpasses 100K USD, the entire market will be restless. We'll see a surge in KOLs, new projects launching, and many people suddenly becoming wealthy and sharing their exciting stories in the media.

We've experienced too many abnormal fluctuations over the past period. Currently, it seems like investors are starting to lose faith and lack the optimism to believe in price projections above 100K USD. However, I still firmly believe that 100K USD will happen this season, and 1M USD will come in the next 1-2 seasons.
I've long predicted BTC growth to the $150K-$170K zone. Now we just need to monitor the progress of this and be ready for any intermediate fluctuations that could be enough to change this upward trajectory. Current BTC price increase confirms that we're in a 1st-order uptrend, not strong enough for a 2nd-order, which aligns with the lack of FOMO among investors.

For me, $100K isn't a major target, it will come within this cycle, especially possibly in 2024. $1M might be premature to discuss now as predictions about it could come with such a large margin of error that it's impossible to estimate. We can talk about it in another 5-10 years.