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Wider Crypto World => Gambling & Crypto Casinos => Gambling discussion => Topic started by: 20Bet on April 03, 2025, 05:24:02 PM

Title: How Do Bookmakers Set Odds—and Can You Beat Them?
Post by: 20Bet on April 03, 2025, 05:24:02 PM
(https://i.ibb.co/p6qtLx5C/Screenshot-2025-04-03-at-15-17-07.png)

Did you ever ask yourself how are betting odds set? I did a little research, and I found that it's a rich topic worth talking about.

Actually, they are based on the chances of both teams. For example, if we have Barcelona vs. Real Madrid and both teams have a 50% chance of winning, then logically, the fair odds should be 2 (since 1/0.50 = 2). However, the reality is different.

Bookmakers want to make a profit, like all businesses, which is legitimate, no matter the outcome of the match. To achieve this, they lower the odds slightly, for example, setting 1.90 for Barcelona instead of 2. This small change helps the bookmaker make money over time.

Here’s a detailed example of fair odds and how they are calculated:
Barcelona to win: 50% chance → fair odds 2.00, but they set it at 1.90
Real Madrid wins: 30% chance → fair odds 3.33, but they set it at 3.10
A draw: 20% chance → fair odds 5.00, but they set it at 4.50

Bookmakers also change the odds based on what is happening. If many people bet on Barcelona, the bookmaker lowers its odds to 1.80 and increases Real Madrid’s odds to 3.20. This helps them balance their risk (the same thing applies when teams have injuries, key players are resting, etc.).

So why does this matter to you? Because sometimes bookmakers make mistakes whether intentionally or unintentionally... If they offer 2.10 for Team A when the fair odds should be 1.90, that is called a value bet, and it's a good chance to win big. My question for you guys is: how can you find these value bets? Is there a tool that can alert players when their fav bookmaker sets them up? I'm absolutely sure if you can find these value bets, you can increase your chances of making a profit over time.

As you may notice, sports betting is not 100% luck; it’s also about understanding the system and making smart choices ;)
Title: Re: How Do Bookmakers Set Odds—and Can You Beat Them?
Post by: Charles-Tim on April 03, 2025, 05:39:18 PM
Quote from: 20Bet on April 03, 2025, 05:24:02 PM
how can you find these value bets? Is there a tool that can alert players when their fav bookmaker sets them up? I'm absolutely sure if you can find these value bets, you can increase your chances of making a profit over time.
You need to know the players that will play in such match because I have fallen for something like this before but I later know that best two players the strong club supposed to use are not playing in the match. I have also tried many before and the match later went not favoring me. Also there were some that favoured me. Valued bet may be very risky like other bets.
Title: Re: How Do Bookmakers Set Odds—and Can You Beat Them?
Post by: 0t3p0t on April 03, 2025, 07:41:23 PM
Quote from: Charles-Tim on April 03, 2025, 05:39:18 PM
This. Though I don't play sportsbetting online but I usually do it physically before with my local favorites. Those best players that are making the winnings possible in the match is very important missing atleast one of them may ruin the game or put your bets in an downside situation since me and my friends usually watch live games we can atleast increase our chances of winning.
Title: Re: How Do Bookmakers Set Odds—and Can You Beat Them?
Post by: Zed0X on April 03, 2025, 11:16:27 PM
The question remains on how do they determine the 50% or the 30% chance that you used in your example? Sometimes I also wonder how a team that should be the favorite became an underdog or how the scoreline should be but the bookies have different numbers.
Title: Re: How Do Bookmakers Set Odds—and Can You Beat Them?
Post by: bitterguy28 on April 04, 2025, 02:24:08 PM
Quote from: 20Bet on April 03, 2025, 05:24:02 PM
(https://i.ibb.co/p6qtLx5C/Screenshot-2025-04-03-at-15-17-07.png)

Did you ever ask yourself how are betting odds set? I did a little research, and I found that it's a rich topic worth talking about.

Actually, they are based on the chances of both teams. For example, if we have Barcelona vs. Real Madrid and both teams have a 50% chance of winning, then logically, the fair odds should be 2 (since 1/0.50 = 2). However, the reality is different.

Bookmakers want to make a profit, like all businesses, which is legitimate, no matter the outcome of the match. To achieve this, they lower the odds slightly, for example, setting 1.90 for Barcelona instead of 2. This small change helps the bookmaker make money over time.
this is what they would call the house edge

this also applies with bookmakers because no matter what the outcome of the event, whether you predicted right or wrong the house or the bookmaker will always earn money from your bet even if it is just a small percentage so they do not need you to lose but it will be ideal
Quote
My question for you guys is: how can you find these value bets? Is there a tool that can alert players when their fav bookmaker sets them up? I'm absolutely sure if you can find these value bets, you can increase your chances of making a profit over time.
i do not know if there is any tool that helps with this because you are the one who can find these mistakes set by the bookmaker there is a lot of factors involved why there could be mistakes from their end and usually this happens early on the bet
Title: Re: How Do Bookmakers Set Odds—and Can You Beat Them?
Post by: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on April 04, 2025, 04:01:18 PM
Quote from: 20Bet on April 03, 2025, 05:24:02 PM
Bookmakers also change the odds based on what is happening. If many people bet on Barcelona, the bookmaker lowers its odds to 1.80 and increases Real Madrid’s odds to 3.20. This helps them balance their risk (the same thing applies when teams have injuries, key players are resting, etc.).

. My question for you guys is: how can you find these value bets? Is there a tool that can alert players when their fav bookmaker sets them up? I'm absolutely sure if you can find these value bets, you can increase your chances of making a profit over time.

Also, when the game is live, the bookmakers always continues to rearrange the odds based on the team that is winning, and also the team that gets red or yellow cards. It may interest you to know that no matter how gamblers try to get any of these strategies in other to make profit, on the long run they don't still get so profitable except only few gamblers who were flawlessly favoured by luck.