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According to Willie Wu, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst and researcher, bitcoin will reach the bottom in the second quarter of 2019, after which growth is possible. Over the past three months, starting in August, bitcoin has remained in the close range of $6'200 to $6'800, unable to get above the resistance level, located at $6'800.
Forecasting based on fundamental data, not price and volume
Indicators of Wu, founder Woobull.com, demonstrate a bearish short-term trend for bitcoin and the entire crypto market as a whole, indicating a sell signal.
This latest reading of our macro market indicators indicates that bears are still in the game. What has changed is that the NVTS has now broken its support, which is usually a signal to sell. All our indicators remain bearish. NVT, NVTS, MVRV, BNM, NVM. They are experimental, but serve to create the right understanding today, even when traditional indicators point to the opposite.
Represented in 2017 the ratio NVT (network assessment, divided by the value of the transaction) is a new indicator created by Wu, which produces assessment of bitcoin, taking into account the activity of the blockchain network.
With the NVT coefficient and several other indicators used by Wu, the bitcoin trend can be measured in several different areas that conventional technical indicators do not cover. Essentially, instead of relying entirely on the price and volume of bitcoin trading, the value obtained depends on more fundamental data related to the blockchain.
Based on the NVT ratio and other indicators implemented by the team, Wu stressed that bitcoin is likely to decline in the second quarter of 2019. After that, according to the forecasts of Wu, bitcoin will be able to start a long preparation for an upward trend, initiating a strong medium-term rally, as it was in 2014 and 2017.
There is still a short-term hope for bitcoin
It should be admitted that there is no single indicator that can accurately predict the unpredictable trend of the crypto market.
Wu explained that "if BTC bounces back in the short term, and overcomes the $7'000 mark, then gradual growth is possible until the second quarter of 2019." However, bitcoin in the last three months has tried unsuccessfully to overcome the resistance level of $6 '800, and a breakthrough above $7' 000 is even more difficult given the current market conditions.
Link to the source of information (Russian) - https://altstake.io/news/analitik-bitkoin-dostignet-dna-vesnoy2019-goda