In our Investment Outlook 2019, we identified three themes for the new year: 1) interest rate normalization, 2) regional economic divergence, and 3) new geopolitical regimes.

Below, we put these themes in the context of recent market developments, placing a special emphasis on the “new geopolitical regime.”
 

Gérald Moser
Multi-Asset Strategist

Interest rate normalization made headlines in December, as financial markets moved to price in a higher risk of a recession. This led the market to go as far as pricing in rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2019. While we have changed our forecast for the timing of the two hikes we expect later in the year, we believe that the Fed will continue to normalize interest rates. The first few days of the year suggest that markets are slowly moving back to a more optimistic growth view. In light of weaker manufacturing activity, our Investment Committee has shifted to a neutral tactical view on broad commodities, with a preference for oil only. We still see a long-term opportunity for commodities to do relatively well over the year.

Divergences in EM equities

As for our second theme, some of the divergences in developed markets (DM) are reversing, while divergences in emerging markets (EM) could persist. This is reflected in performance, with Brazilian equities significantly outperforming markets in Turkey and South Africa last year. We are negative on South African equities and, in fact, now expect the entire Eastern Europe, Middle East & Africa region to underperform the broad EM equity index. Yet, we would expect divergences in DM to diminish somewhat in 2019. US leading indicators are starting to provide evidence of this, declining from very high levels and starting to close the gap with Japanese and Eurozone indicators.
 
Geopolitical events still impacting markets

Most of the geopolitical drivers from last year continue to make headlines at the start of 2019, and are impacting market sentiment. First and foremost, trade tensions between the USA and China continue to simmer. The latest developments would suggest that, as we expected, an agreement is likely to be found before the end of March, meaning that no additional tariffs are likely to be levied on Chinese exports to the USA. Yet, other political issues such as Brexit or the confrontation between a Democrat-controlled House of Representatives and President Trump, currently resulting in a protracted government shutdown, are likely to continue to keep geopolitiAAUC in the spotlight.






Important Information:

This part of the material: (i) aims to provide macro-market commentary; (ii) does not contain any statements or advice in relation to any specific marketable security or financial product; and (iii) does not take into account your personal circumstances and should not be treated as any form of regulated financial advice, legal, tax or other regulated service.

Most trading platforms you come across are based on the fundamentals of individuals studying the trade market and trying to assert the perfect bull’s eye for a profitable trade. With the constant fluctuations of most cryptocurrencies, it would take more than human expertise to strike the trade iron while it is burning hot.

Introducing Clonestorm

Clonestorm is an online trading platform that combines the efficiencies of both human expertise and machine precision. This hybridized system provides members with a trading platform that helps them to maximize and take advantage of any trade while maintaining the perfect radar aiming for the next loophole. This platform has the habit of assisting its members in growing their assets exponentially.

Why Clonestorm Trader?

Every online trading platform has some elements of risk attached to it, but Clonestorm has the edge of good risk management. The Clonestorm platform is based on some management rules that protect the interest of every client.

Every client matters

Under the trading platform of Clonestorm, the primary assignment is to accumulate assets for every client within the restrictions of a well-guided cost implication. The risk limitation on the clonestorm trading platform sees to it that every client’s capital stays at the verge of profitability.

Adapting well with market fluctuation

Given that crypto-currencies are never stable, the Clonestorm platform has proven adaptive strategies that are poised for garnering assets irrespective of market fluctuations.

You are always in the know

With the combined system of artificial intelligence and strategic analysts, you will always be kept abreast with trade information. The Clonestorm platform allows its traders to access market info at will; it is like a private banker accessible for all.

Expert trading

Every crypto-trading bot assigned to trade on your behalf is an automated replica of an expert trade made by an expert trader. This expert trading was based on strong technical and fundamental strategies. This AI trading gives you the benefit of profiting directly from an expert trade.

Automated Failsafe

Every crypto-coin traded with is governed by a capital preservation strategy; this means that when the market is poised for losses your trade will automatically activate stop-loss settings that preserve your capital and minimizes risk.

Other than activating stop-loss settings, Clonestorm trader leverages on an automated Bitcoin crash failsafe that changes all your Bitcoin into stablecoins. This Bitcoin crash failsafe stops trailing to maximize profits. These stablecoins are used for repurchasing when the market balances up maximizing your capital accumulation.

You own the rights to your funds.

Clonestorm trader only has trading access to your funds, and it’s secure because it is trading on your account. You reserve the right to withdraw your funds at will. Trading is only done via the exchange link. When you are assigned a bot, you also have the right to determine how much is reserved for exchange and how much should be traded with. You can always change this in your settings.

The exchanges that are supported on the Clonestorm platform are considered safe and are quite difficult to hack. The Clonestorm platform lacks the rights to withdraw, and even in exceptional cases of the breach of data, hackers can’t access your funds on the exchanges you linked to the bot. In this regard, you can choose an exchange trade that you are quite comfortable with.

Trade passively 24/7

With an assigned bot, you have the benefit of trading passively. You don’t need to monitor market prices or fluctuations as the bot will always be at your service. You may likely keep other jobs or may be involved in other businesses and still trade. This is one of the unique features of Clonestorm that most trading platforms lack; this feature would be of immense benefit as it affords you the ability to multi-task.

Compatible with any operating system

Clonestorm isn’t a techno-racist as it runs on any operating system such as Windows, Mac, Linux, and similar sorts.

The user interface of the Clonestorm trader is very easy to use and understand. You can create your account this minute and navigate through it like a pro as tutorial videos are available to aid your understanding.  The Clonestorm trading platform is quite easy to set up. You only need to attach the tool to your chosen exchanges where you wish to trade with your crypto-currencies and pick a trading technique.

Once your unique bot is set up, it will purchase and sell signals on the exchanges you selected. Once this is set up, your trading is set on auto-pilot. But you can always change the settings anytime you deem fit. You also don’t have to stay logged in to trade as the bot performs every trade on your behalf. API keys are automated to key-start your bot once your account is created and trades are done on your behalf following expert signals.

Multiple exchange support systems

Clonestorm has a secure exchange system that is available in multiple countries and has proven to be hassle-free in the funds transfer. The Clonestorm team is always working on improving the exchange support system, and all its members will be informed once a new exchange has been added to the Clonestorm Trader system. However, if your favorite exchange isn’t listed on the Clonestorm exchange list yet, but you would still like to be able to partake in its trading techniques or strategies, create an account and transfer some Bitcoins in one of its supported exchanges.

Adaptive marketing strategy

The Clonestorm trading strategy encompasses a mid to long term profit accumulation. The Clonestorm trading invests in altcoins and sells them when the demand is high for a higher price to boost your Bitcoin profits. The Clonestorm trading platform is based on the analysis that Bitcoin would indeed bloom again and would be quite expensive so every strategy is targeted towards accumulating Bitcoins that would be sold expensively at a later time when Bitcoin thrives again.

AI Assisted Expertise

Experienced traders and technical strategists vividly analyze all trades on the Clonestorm platform. All trades done are scrutinized by an AI platform that reduces the risk of human error ensuring that a profitable trade is never missed.

If you are searching for a trading platform where trading is carried out seamlessly without necessarily having to monitor the trend in the market, then CloneStorm remains your best choice as the bots are there to assist you in getting the best out of the crypto trading market.

Official Website: https://www.clonestormtrader.com/

For many, the world of cryptocurrency still feels distant; a cold and unknown place awash with jargon, and run by elite tech-heads. What most don’t realize is that the entire point of cryptocurrency is, in fact, to provide more choices and convenience to the masses. Anyone following crypto news over the past couple of years will have noticed a growing trend in articles telling us more and more how our new digital tokens can be used to purchase an increasing number of everyday things.

Recently it was announced that Mithril (MITH) will be among the payment options for purchasing Ed Sheeran concert tickets. This adds yet another item to the growing list of purchases available to holders of cryptocurrencies. More importantly than that, it is another sign of the growing reach, legitimacy and viability of decentralized cryptocurrencies to challenge and even replace fiat currencies. In short, it is a consumer revolution.



Announcement from Mithril’s official Medium Account

Today it may start with Ed Sheeran tickets, but after that what comes next? Already cryptocurrencies can be used for purchasing Windows and Xbox content (2014), Starbucks coffee (August 2018), home furnishings on Overstock (2014), gift cards at egifter.com, luxury goods like at The White Company, and even to make charitable donations. Not only is the list growing, but the revolution is gaining mainstream attention. Back in March 2018, CNBC published an article detailing the increasing number of ways to use Bitcoin. In the same year, The Guardian newspaper in the UK also published a detailed feature on cryptocurrency. This is no longer a “fringe” industry. It has thrust itself into the mainstream, increasingly proving sceptics wrong and placing itself firmly outside of the “passing fad” category.

As cryptocurrencies like MITH continue to gain momentum, and usage becomes more commonplace, another revelation is emerging — the miracle and marvel of blockchain-based technology. It is now becoming clear that as crypto use enters our everyday lives and becomes increasingly normalized, a greater number of people are seeing the benefits of decentralization. The security and lack of room for manipulation are particularly attractive, and even more that finally the power of currency could potentially be put into the hands of the masses rather than the elites.

The sector isn’t without its challenges, however, and we should all remember that one swallow does not a summer make. Using crypto to purchase concert tickets is another small victory in the long road to meaningful and widespread implementation of cryptocurrencies in the everyday lives of the general public.

https://www.asiacryptotoday.com/cryptocurrency-the-consumer-revolution-use-mithril-mith-to-get-tickets-for-ed-sheeran-concert-in-taiwan/

After a year of strong growth, investors are pricing in slower growth in 2019 as industrial production falls. We expect the growth slowdown to be focused in the first half of the year, followed by a pick-up by year-end. Labor markets remain resilient.

Despite an apparent easing of trade tensions, tariffs remain a risk to growth and also have longer-term ramifications.
 

James P Sweeney
Chief Economist and Regional CIO Americas

We expect 2019 to fit a pattern that has recurred often in recent decades: slow global industrial production growth roils markets but leaves developed market unemployment rates, inflation and corporate default rates largely unaffected.

The manufacturing slowdown and associated financial volatility is likely to be focused in the first half of the year. Business surveys have recently fallen in the USA, China and Europe. We expect further manufacturing weakness as the global economy faces headwinds from tighter financial conditions, lower commodity prices and ongoing trade tensions. The major central banks will likely remain inactive in H1 as a result. However, by year-end we think global growth will be back on track. We expect the US Federal Reserve to hike rates twice in the second half of the year and the European Central Bank to begin raising rates in Q3.

Resilient labor markets

Labor market resilience will cut two ways. By maintaining stable consumption, it will help to prevent recessions in the USA and Eurozone, but will also create headaches for businesses due to shrinking margins. Steady labor markets will prompt policy tightening when short-term financial conditions and cyclical data allow it. The combination of weak manufacturing data and tight labor markets is already proving to be very difficult for many investment managers.
 
Trade tensions likely to persist

Tariff fears remain a risk to growth in 2019. Last year ended with a short-term truce on US-China tariffs, but the topic will be revisited and a wide range of outcomes is possible. US trade policy extends beyond the bilateral link to China. The USA could threaten other large economies with auto tariffs, which would contribute to cautious investment behavior.

Geopolitical tensions are masquerading as trade tensions, as the USA’s focus on bilateral trade balances has led to questioning of global supply chains, especially in the technology sector. At stake ultimately is who will have leading roles in strategic technologies such as telecommunications equipment, microprocessors, self-driving vehicles and artificial intelligence.

Taking a longer-term view

Still, the trade and technology tensions are unlikely to lead to a major collapse in manufacturing that lasts through 2019 and beyond. We expect that once the 2019 global industrial production slump ends, a global economic rebound will occur, perhaps coinciding with calendar year 2020, which consensus now widely expects to be a US recession year.

Now is a good time to carefully separate short, medium, and long-term forces. In the near term, we foresee a manufacturing slump. In the medium term, we expect an economic recovery amid tight labor markets and rising interest rates. It is only farther out that we foresee rising fiscal troubles and an all-new strategic landscape as new technologies and changing national and geo-political forces change the distribution of global influence.
 




Important Information:

This part of the material: (i) aims to provide macro-market commentary; (ii) does not contain any statements or advice in relation to any specific marketable security or financial product; and (iii) does not take into account your personal circumstances and should not be treated as any form of regulated financial advice, legal, tax or other regulated service.

We continue to favor EM and Asian local currency bonds, with the real rate differential relative to developed markets at a high level. We expect inflation to remain benign in most EM countries, and the fundamental undervaluation of the EM currencies supports this view. Within Asia, we expect Thailand to underperform. Thai LC sovereign yields are low relative to EM and likely to reprice gradually alongside US Treasuries.

Hard-currency (HC) sovereign bonds – move Philippines to underperform

We also remain positive on EM HC bonds as they offer attractive sovereign credit spreads over and above what their sovereign fundamentals might warrant. Growth in EM appears to be bottoming out and economic stimulus in China will most likely keep this picture on track in the coming quarters. In Asia, we have moved the Philippines to underperform given high duration amid our neutral duration stance on US Treasuries. Moreover, carry relative to the EM benchmark is low. We also shifted China back to neutral as we expect higher yielding EM to outperform on fading idiosyncratic risks and a stable USD.

Asia FX: The USD stumbles

The confluence of more dovish expectations for US interest rates and the fall in the price of crude oil led to a downward shift in USD/Asia exchange rates over the last month. However, we would be cautious to project an extended move lower at this same pace given that market expectations on US interest rates might already have overshot and the oil price is more likely than not to continue to creep higher.

Asian FX against the USD – Deficit currencies rebounded on lower oil prices

It should be noted, though, that the global growth situation – and consequently Fed policy – is still evolving and very likely to remain highly dynamic. As such, our expectations for USD/Asia exchange rates could well need to be re-evaluated fairly frequently over the next few months.

INR and IDR benefit from lower oil

For the USD/IDR and USD/INR, both the interest rate environment and the oil price contributed to our adjusting our 3M targets lower (to 14000 and 71.0 respectively), in addition to going neutral on the INR, from negative previously. Both Indonesia and India are due to hold general elections – due April 2019 and April-May 2019 respectively – but the risk of political uncertainty appears higher in India at the moment. Besides politiAAUC, it also appears likely that Bank Indonesia will prove to be somewhat less dovish than the Reserve Bank of India. The former is also likely to be less aggressive in buying USD, given Indonesia’s higher ratio of reserves to short-term external debt.

US-China trade agreement now more likely

Elsewhere, the US-China trade talks appear to have gone rather well and it seems that the market volatility in the USA has increased the pressure on both sides to come to an agreement. For sure, the process will continue to ebb and flow, but at the very least it appears to be headed in the right direction. The USD/CNY, meanwhile, had already moved lower on the earlier signs of rapprochement, and we do not envisage significant further downside given that current levels are in line with what is needed to negate the existing tariff regime, which is expected to be locked-in in the new agreement. The USD/CNY will also likely be supported by promises by China to shrink the bilateral trade imbalance, and expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. We see the pair at 6.85 and 7.00 in 3 and 12 months, respectively.





Important Information:

This part of the material: (i) aims to provide macro-market commentary; (ii) does not contain any statements or advice in relation to any specific marketable security or financial product; and (iii) does not take into account your personal circumstances and should not be treated as any form of regulated financial advice, legal, tax or other regulated service.

Our expectation for China’s macro momentum to stabilize in the coming months, thanks in part to further monetary and fiscal policy easing, drives our positive view on Chinese equities. Additionally, some of the headwinds from 2018 such as earnings downgrades, CNY depreciation and regulatory risks for the internet sector appear to be fading. After months of earnings downgrades, we are seeing a stabilization in the earnings revision cycle. This gives us confidence that Chinese equities can deliver double-digit earnings growth in 2019. As valuations remain attractive, with the MSCI China Index trading at a 12M forward P/E of 10.5x, we believe there is significant room for re-rating. We are particularly constructive on the internet sector, which is seeing renewed investor interest given its structural growth story, reasonable valuation and fading regulatory risks.

Singapore remains our preferred market in Southeast Asia, as it offers a combination of healthy growth and cheap valuation. Though the Singapore economy will be impacted by any slow-down in the global economy, we believe the market has more than priced in the risks, with its 12M forward P/E ratio at 12.0x, one standard deviation below historical average, and high dividend yield of 4.6%. Stable earnings revisions over the past few months also suggest limited downside for market expectations of 7% earnings growth for 2019.

Replace India with Taiwan as our least preferred market: This month in our Asia equity strategy we replace India with Taiwan as our least favored market. Though we continue to advocate avoiding Indian equities given their expensive valuation, downside risk scenarios such as state elections and tight liquidity in the credit market have already played out. We believe that recently lower oil prices, an expected shift by India’s central bank toward dovishness and the outlook for strong investment growth could provide support to the market on the downside. Therefore, we turn neutral on India.

Conversely, we see downside risks in Taiwan. The market is vulnerable to the slowdown in global industrial growth given its dependence on the manufacturing sector. The tech hardware sector, 57% of the Taiwan index, is under tremendous pressure due to slowing global smartphone growth and the warning from Apple of lower iPhone demand. On top of this, the market is witnessing substantial earnings downgrades, which could lead to negative earnings growth in 2019, resulting in further outflows. In light of these cyclical headwinds, we turn negative on Taiwan equities.

Asian fixed income to smooth out portfolio volatility Over the past month, global bond benchmarks have held up in the face of an equity sell-off as global government bond yields edged lower. Emerging market (EM) and Asian bonds have posted positive returns as the Fed turned more dovish and country-specific risks faded.

Looking ahead, the slowdown in global industrial momentum we expect may still create some drag, but we expect EM and Asian bonds to deliver positive returns in 2019 given the large undershooting of asset prices relative to the still robust growth environment, expectations of further USD consolidation, and only a gradual rise in US Treasury yields.





Important Information:

This part of the material: (i) aims to provide macro-market commentary; (ii) does not contain any statements or advice in relation to any specific marketable security or financial product; and (iii) does not take into account your personal circumstances and should not be treated as any form of regulated financial advice, legal, tax or other regulated service.