Summary of Rules and Guidelines for Corrective Waves
Zigzag
Rules
•   A zigzag always subdivides into three waves.
•   Wave A always subdivides into an impulse or leading diagonal.
•   Wave C always subdivides into an impulse or diagonal.
•   Wave B always subdivides into a zigzag, flat, triangle or combination thereof.
•   Wave B never moves beyond the start of wave A.
Guidelines
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•   Wave A almost always subdivides into an impulse.
•   Wave C almost always subdivides into an impulse.
•   Wave C is often about the same length as wave A.
•   Wave C almost always ends beyond the end of wave A.
•   Wave B typically retraces 38 to 79 percent of wave A.
•   If wave B is a running triangle, it will typically retrace between 10 and 40 percent of wave A.
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•   If wave B is a zigzag, it will typically retrace 50 to 79 percent of wave A.
•   If wave B is a triangle, it will typically retrace 38 to 50 percent of wave A.
•   A line connecting the ends of waves A and C is often parallel to a line connecting the end of wave B and the start of wave A. (Forecasting guideline: Wave C often ends upon reaching a line drawn from the end of wave A that is parallel to a line connecting the start of wave A and the end of wave B.)
Flat
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Rules
•   A flat always subdivides into three waves.
•   Wave A is never a triangle.
•   Wave C is always an impulse or a diagonal.
•   Wave B always retraces at least 90 percent of wave A.
Guidelines
•   Wave B usually retraces between 100 and 138 percent of wave A.
•   Wave C is usually between 100 and 165 percent as long as wave A.
•   Wave C usually ends beyond the end of wave A.
Notes
•   When wave B is more than 105 percent as long as wave A and wave C ends beyond the end of wave A, the entire formation is called an expanded flat.
•   When wave B is more than 100 percent as long as wave A and wave C does not end beyond the end of wave A, the entire formation is called a running flat.
Contracting Triangle
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Rules
•   A triangle always subdivides into five waves.
•   At least four waves among waves A, B, C, D and E each subdivide into a zigzag or zigzag combination.
•   Wave C never moves beyond the end of wave A, wave D never moves beyond the end of wave B, and wave E never moves beyond the end of wave C. The result is that going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves B and D converges with a line connecting the ends of waves A and C.
•   A triangle never has more than one complex subwave, in which case it is always a zigzag combination or a triangle.
Guidelines
•   Usually, wave C subdivides into a zigzag combination that is longer lasting and contains deeper percentage retracements than each of the other subwaves.
•   Sometimes, wave D subdivides into a zigzag combination that is longer lasting and contains deeper percentage retracements than each of the other subwaves.
•   Sometimes one of the waves, usually wave C, D or E, subdivides into a contracting or barrier triangle. Often the effect is as if the entire triangle consisted of nine zigzags.
•   About 60 percent of the time, wave B does not end beyond the start of wave A. When it does, the triangle is called a running triangle.
Barrier Triangle
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•   
•   A barrier triangle has the same characteristics as a contracting triangle except that waves B and D end at essentially the same level. We have yet to observe a 9-wave barrier triangle, implying that this form may not extend.
•   When wave 5 follows a triangle, it is typically either a brief, rapid movement or an exceptionally long extension.
Expanding Triangle
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Rules
Most rules are the same as for contracting triangles, with these differences:
•   Wave C, D and E each moves beyond the end of the preceding same-directional subwave. (The result is that going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves B and D diverges from a line connecting the ends of waves A and C.)
•   Subwaves B, C and D each retrace at least 100 percent but no more than 150 percent of the preceding subwave.
•   
•   Most guidelines are the same, with these differences:
•   Subwaves B, C and D usually retrace 105 to 125 percent of the preceding subwave.
•   No subwave has yet been observed to subdivide into a triangle.
Combinations
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Rules
•   Combinations comprise two (or three) corrective patterns separated by one (or two) corrective pattern(s) in the opposite direction, labeled X. (The first corrective pattern is labeled W, the second Y, and the third, if there is one, Z.)
•   A zigzag combination comprises two or three zigzags (in which case it is called a double or triple zigzag).
•   A "double three" flat combination comprises (in order) a zigzag and a flat, a flat and a zigzag, a flat and a flat, a zigzag and a triangle or a flat and a triangle.
•   A rare "triple three" flat combination comprises three flats.
•   Double and triple zigzags take the place of zigzags, and double and triple threes take the place of flats and triangles.
•   An expanding triangle has yet to be observed as a component of a combination.
Guidelines
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•   When a zigzag or flat appears too small to be the entire wave with respect to the preceding wave (or, if it is to be wave 4, the preceding wave 2), a combination is likely.

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Summary of Rules and Guidelines for impulse Waves

From a theoretical standpoint, we must be careful not to confuse Elliott waves with their measures, which are as a thermometer is to heat. A thermometer is not designed to gauge rapid short-term fluctuations in air temperature and neither is an index of 30 stocks constructed so as to be able to record every short-term fluctuation in social mood. While we fully believe that the listed rules govern Elliott waves as a collective mental phenomenon, recordings of actions that Elliott waves induce — such as buying and selling certain lists of stocks — may not perfectly reflect those waves. Therefore recordings of such actions could deviate from a perfect expression of the rules simply because of the imperfection of the chosen gauge. That being said, we have found that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has followed Elliott’s rules impeccably at Minor degree and above and almost always at lesser degrees as well. Below is a summary of the rules and known guidelines (excepting Fibonacci relationships) for the five main wave patterns, variations and combinations.
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Motive Waves
Impulse
Rules
•   An impulse always subdivides into five waves
•   Wave 1 always subdivides into an impulse or (rarely) a diagonal.
•   Wave 3 always subdivides into an impulse
•   Wave 5 always subdivides into an impulse or a diagonal.
•   Wave 2 always subdivides into a zigzag, flat or combination.
•   Wave 4 always subdivides into a zigzag, flat, triangle or combination.
•   Wave 2 never moves beyond the start of wave 1.
•   Wave 3 always moves beyond the end of wave 1.
•   Wave 3 is never the shortest wave.
•   Wave 4 never moves beyond the end of wave 1.
•   Never are waves 1, 3 and 5 all extended.
•   توصيات الفوركس
Guidelines
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•   Wave 4 will almost always be a different corrective pattern than wave 2.
•   Wave 2 is usually a zigzag or zigzag combination.
•   Wave 4 is usually a flat, triangle or flat combination.
•   Sometimes wave 5 does not move beyond the end of wave 3 (in which case it is called a truncation).
•   Wave 5 often ends when meeting or slightly exceeding a line drawn from the end of wave 3 that is parallel to the line connecting the ends of waves 2 and 4, on either arithmetic or semilog scale.
•   The center of wave 3 almost always has the steepest slope of any equal period within the parent impulse except that sometimes an early portion of wave 1 (the "kickoff") will be steeper.
•   Wave 1, 3 or 5 is usually extended. (An extension appears "stretched" because its corrective waves are small compared to its impulse waves. It is substantially longer, and contains larger subdivisions, than the non-extended waves).
•   Often, the extended subwave is the same number (1, 3 or 5) as the parent wave.
•   Rarely do two subwaves extend, although it is typical for waves 3 and 5 both to extend when they are of Cycle or Supercycle degree and within a fifth wave of one degree higher.
•   Wave 1 is the least commonly extended wave.
•   When wave 3 is extended, waves 1 and 5 tend to have gains related by equality or the Fibonacci ratio.
•   When wave 5 is extended, it is often in Fibonacci proportion to the net travel of waves 1 through 3.
•   When wave 5 is extended, it is often in Fibonacci proportion to the net travel of waves 1 through 3.
•   Wave 4 typically ends when it is within the price range of subwave four of 3.
•   Wave 4 often subdivides the entire impulse into Fibonacci proportion in time and/or price.
Diagonal
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Rules
•   A diagonal always subdivides into five waves.
•   An ending diagonal always appears as wave 5 of an impulse or wave C of a zigzag or flat.
•   A leading diagonal always appears as wave 1 of an impulse or wave A of a zigzag.
•   Waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 of an ending diagonal, and waves 2 and 4 of a leading diagonal, always subdivide into zigzags.
•   Wave 2 never goes beyond the start of wave 1.
•   Wave 3 always goes beyond the end of wave 1.
•   Wave 4 never moves beyond the end of wave 2.
•   Wave 4 always ends within the price territory of wave 1.*
•   Going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves 2 and 4 converges towards (in the contracting variety) or diverges from (in the expanding variety) a line connecting the ends of waves 1 and 3.
•   In a leading diagonal, wave 5 always ends beyond the end of wave 3.
•   In the contracting variety, wave 3 is always shorter than wave 1, wave 4 is always shorter than wave 2, and wave 5 is always shorter than wave 3.
•   In the expanding variety, wave 3 is always longer than wave 1, wave 4 is always longer than wave 2, and wave 5 is always longer than wave 3.
•   In the expanding variety, wave 5 always ends beyond the end of wave 3.
•   توصيات الذهب
Guidelines
•   Waves 2 and 4 each usually retrace .66 to .81 of the preceding wave.
•   Waves 1, 3 and 5 of a leading diagonal usually subdivide into zigzags but sometimes appear to be impulses.
•   Within an impulse, if wave 1 is a diagonal, wave 3 is likely to be extended.
•   Within an impulse, wave 5 is unlikely to be a diagonal if wave 3 is not extended.
•   In the contracting variety, wave 5 usually ends beyond the end of wave 3. (Failure to do so is called a truncation.)
•   In the contracting variety, wave 5 usually ends at or slightly beyond a line that connects the ends of waves 1 and 3. (Ending beyond that line is called a throw-over.)
•   
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•   In the expanding variety, wave 5 usually ends slightly before reaching a line that connects the ends of waves 1 and 3.

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Wave Personality part 2

 
Figure 2-15
downswing. Nearly everyone was proclaiming a new bull market. Services were extremely bullish, and the upside volume was running higher than at the peak in 1929.
— The 1961-1962 rise was wave (b) in an (a)-(b)-(c) expanded flat correction. At the top in early 1962, stocks were selling at unheard of price/earnings multiples that had not been seen up to that time and have not been seen since. Cumulative breadth had already peaked along with the top of the third wave in 1959.
— The rise from 1966 to 1968 was wave Ⓑ in a corrective pattern of Cycle degree. Emotionalism had gripped the public and "cheapies" were skyrocketing in the speculative fever, unlike the orderly and usually fundamentally justifiable participation of the secondaries within first and third waves. The Dow Industrials struggled unconvincingly upward throughout the advance and finally refused to confirm the phenomenal new highs in the secondary indexes.
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— In 1977, the Dow Jones Transportation Average climbed to new highs in a B wave, miserably unconfirmed by the Industrials. Airlines and truckers were sluggish. Only the coal-carrying rails were participating as part of the energy play. Thus, breadth within the index was conspicuously lacking, confirming again that good breadth is generally a property of impulse waves, not corrections.
— For a discussion of the B wave in the gold market, see Chapter 6, page 180.
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As a general observation, B waves of Intermediate degree and lower usually show a diminution of volume, while B waves of Primary degree and greater can display volume heavier than that which accompanied the preceding bull market, usually indicating wide public participation.
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C waves — Declining C waves are usually devastating in their destruction. They are third waves and have most of the properties of third waves. It is during these declines that there is virtually no place to hide except cash. The illusions held throughout waves A and B tend to evaporate and fear takes over. C waves are persistent and broad. 1930-1932 was a C wave. 1962 was a C wave. 1969-1970 and 1973-1974 can be classified as C waves. Advancing C waves within upward corrections in larger bear markets are just as dynamic and can be mistaken for the start of a new upswing, especially since they unfold in five waves. The October 1973 rally (see Figure 1-37), for instance, was a C wave in an inverted expanded flat correction.
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9) D waves — D waves in all but expanding triangles are often accompanied by increased volume. This is true probably because D waves in non-expanding triangles are hybrids, part corrective, yet having some characteristics of first waves since they follow C waves and are not fully retraced. D waves, being advances within corrective waves, are as phony as B waves. The rise from 1970 to 1973 was wave Ⓓ within the large wave IV of Cycle degree. The "one-decision" complacency that characterized the attitude of the average institutional fund manager at the time is well documented. The area of participation again was narrow, this time the "nifty fifty" growth and glamour issues. Breadth, as well as the Transportation Average, topped early, in 1972, and refused to confirm the extremely high multiples bestowed upon the favorite fifty. Washington was inflating at full steam to sustain the illusory prosperity during the entire advance in preparation for the presidential election. As with the preceding wave Ⓑ, "phony" was an apt description.
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10) E waves — E waves in triangles appear to most market observers to be the dramatic kickoff of a new downtrend after a top has been built. They almost always are accompanied by strongly supportive news. That, in conjunction with the tendency of E waves to stage a false breakdown through the triangle boundary line, intensifies the bearish conviction of market participants at precisely the time that they should be preparing for a substantial move in the opposite direction. Thus, E waves, being ending waves, are attended by a psychology as emotional as that of fifth waves.
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Because the tendencies discussed here are not inevitable, they are stated not as rules, but as guidelines. Their lack of inevitability nevertheless detracts little from their utility. For example, take a look at Figure 2-16, an hourly chart of the most recent market action, the first four Minor waves in the DJIA rally off the March 1, 1978 low. The waves are textbook Elliott from beginning to end, from the length of waves to the volume pattern (not shown) to the trend channels to the guideline of equality to the retracement by the "a" wave following the extension to the expected low for the fourth wave to the perfect internal counts to alternation to the Fibonacci time sequences to the Fibonacci ratio relationships embodied within. Its only atypical aspect is the large size of wave 4. It might be worth noting that 914 would be a reasonable target in that it would mark a .618 retracement of the 1976-1978 decline.
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There are exceptions to guidelines, but without those, market analysis would be a science of exactitude, not one of probability. Nevertheless, with a thorough knowledge of the guidelines of wave structure, you can be quite confident of your wave count. In effect, you can use the market action to confirm the wave count as well as use the wave count to predict market action.
توصيات الفوركس

Notice also that Elliott wave guidelines cover most aspects of traditional technical analysis, such as market momentum and investor sentiment. The result is that traditional technical analysis now has a greatly increased value in that it serves to aid the identification of the market’s position in the Elliott wave structure. To that end, using such tools is by all means encouraged.
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Elliott Wave Principle and Volume

Elliott used volume as a tool for verifying wave counts and in projecting extensions. He recognized that in a bull market, volume has a natural tendency to expand and contract with the speed of price change. Late in a corrective phase, a decline in volume often indicates a decline in selling pressure. A low point in volume often coincides with a turning point in the market. In a normal fifth wave below Primary degree, volume tends to be less than in the third wave. If volume in an advancing fifth wave of less than Primary degree is equal to or greater than that in the third wave, an extension of the fifth is in force. While this outcome is often to be expected anyway if the first and third waves are about equal in length, it is an excellent warning of those rare times when both a third and a fifth wave are extended
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At Primary degree and greater, volume tends to be higher in an advancing fifth wave merely because of the natural long term growth in the number of participants in bull markets. Elliott noted, in fact, that volume at the terminal point of a bull market above Primary degree tends to run at an all-time high. Finally, as discussed earlier, volume often spikes briefly at the throw-over point of a parallel trend channel line or the resistance line of a diagonal. (Upon occasion, such a point can occur simultaneously, as when a diagonal fifth wave terminates right at the upper parallel of the channel containing the price action of one larger degree.)

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In addition to these few valuable observations, we have expanded upon the importance of volume in various sections of this book. To the extent that volume guides wave counting or expectations, it is most significant. Elliott once said that volume independently follows the patterns of the Wave Principle, a claim for which the authors find no convincing evidence.
 
Figure 2-13
The "Right Look"
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The overall appearance of a wave must conform to the appropriate illustration. Although any five-wave sequence can be forced into a three-wave count by labeling the first three subdivisions as a single wave A, as shown in Figure 2-13, it is incorrect to do so. Elliott analysis would lose its anchor if such contortions were allowed. If wave four terminates well above the top of wave one, a five-wave sequence must be classified as an impulse. Since wave A in this hypothetical case is composed of three waves, wave B would be expected to drop to about the start of wave A, as in a flat correction, which it clearly does not. While the internal count of a wave is a guide to its classification, the right overall shape is, in turn, often a guide to its correct internal count.
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The "right look" of a wave is dictated by all the considerations we have outlined so far in the first two chapters. In our experience, we have found it extremely dangerous to allow our emotional involvement with the market to let us accept a wave count that reflects disproportionate wave relationships or a misshapen pattern merely on the basis that the Wave Principle’s patterns are somewhat elastic.
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Elliott cautioned that "the right look" may not be evident at all degrees of trend simultaneously. The solution is to focus on the degrees that are clearest. If the hourly chart is confusing, step back and look at the daily or weekly chart. Conversely, if 77 the weekly chart offers too many possibilities, concentrate on the shorter term movements until the bigger picture clarifies. Generally speaking, you need short term charts to analyze subdivisions in fast moving markets and long term charts for slowly moving markets.
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Channeling
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Elliott noted that a parallel trend channel typically marks the upper and lower boundaries of an impulse wave, often with dramatic precision. You should draw one as early as possible to assist in determining wave targets and provide clues to the future development of trends.
The initial channeling technique for an impulse requires at least three reference points. When wave three ends, connect the points labeled 1 and 3, then draw a parallel line touching the point labeled 2, as shown in Figure 2-8. This construction provides an estimated boundary for wave four. (In most cases, third waves travel far enough that the starting point is excluded from the final channel’s touch points.)

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If the fourth wave ends at a point not touching the parallel, you must reconstruct the channel in order to estimate the boundary for wave five. First connect the ends of waves two and four. If waves one and three are normal, the upper parallel most accurately forecasts the end of wave five when drawn touching the peak of wave three, as in Figure 2-9. If wave three is abnormally strong, almost vertical, then a parallel drawn from its top may be too high. Experience has shown that a parallel to the baseline that touches the top of wave one is then more useful, as in our depiction of gold bullion from August 1976 to March 1977 (see Figure 6-12). In some cases, it may be useful to draw both potential upper boundary lines to alert you to be especially attentive to the wave count and volume characteristics at those levels and then take appropriate action as the wave count warrants.
 
Figure 2-8
 
Figure 2-9
Always remember that all degrees of trend are operating at the same time. Sometimes, for instance, a fifth wave of Intermediate degree within a fifth wave of Primary degree will end when it reaches the upper channel lines at both degrees simultaneously. Or sometimes a throw-over at Supercycle degree will terminate precisely when prices reach the upper line of the channel at Cycle degree.
Zigzag corrections often form channels with four touch points. One line connects the starting point of wave A and then end of wave B; the other line touches the end of wave A and end of wave C. Once the former line is established, a parallel line drawn from the end of wave A is an excellent tool for recognizing the exact end of the entire correction.
Throw-over
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Within a parallel channel or the converging lines of a diagonal, if a fifth wave approaches its upper trendline on declining volume, it is an indication that the end of the wave will meet or fall short of it. If volume is heavy as the fifth wave approaches its upper trendline, it indicates a possible penetration of the upper line, which Elliott called a "throw-over." Near the point of throw-over, a fourth wave of small degree may trend sideways immediately below the parallel, allowing the fifth then to break it in a final burst of volume.
A throw-over is occasionally telegraphed by a preceding "throw-under," either by wave 4 or by wave two of 5, as suggested by the drawing shown as Figure 2-10, from Elliott’s book, The Wave Principle. A throw-over is confirmed by an immediate reversal back below the line. A throw-over can also occur, with the same characteristics, in a declining market. Elliott correctly warned that a throw-over at large degree causes difficulty in identifying the waves of smaller degree during the throw-over, as smaller degree channels are sometimes penetrated on the upside during the final fifth wave. Figures 1-17, 1-19 and 2-11 show real-life examples of throw-overs.
 
Figure 2-10
Scale
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Elliott contended that the necessity of channeling on semilog scale indicated the presence of inflation. To date, no student of the Wave Principle has questioned this assumption, which is demonstrably incorrect. Some of the differences apparent to Elliott may have been due to differences in the degree of waves that he was plotting, since the larger the degree, the more necessary a semilog scale usually becomes. On the other hand, the virtually perfect channels that were formed by the 1921-1929 market on semilog scale (see Figure 2-11) and the 1932-1937 market on arithmetic scale (see Figure 2-12) indicate that waves of the same degree will form the correct Elliott trend channel only when plotted selectively on the appropriate scale. On arithmetic scale, the 1920s bull market accelerates beyond the upper boundary, while on semilog scale the 1930s bull market falls far short of the upper boundary.
 
Figure 2-11   Figure 2-12
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Regarding Elliott’s contention concerning inflation, we note that the period of the 1920s actually accompanied mild deflation, as the Consumer Price Index declined an average of .5% per year, while the period from 1933 to 1937 was mildly inflationary, accompanying a rise in the CPI of 2.2% per year. This monetary background convinces us that inflation is not the reason behind the necessity for use of semilog scale. In fact, aside from this difference in channeling, these two waves of Cycle dimension are surprisingly similar: they create nearly the same multiples in price (six times and five times respectively), they both contain extended fifth waves, and the peak of the third wave is the same percentage gain above the bottom in each case. The essential difference between the two bull markets is the shape and time length of each individual subwave.
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At most, we can state that the necessity for semilog scale indicates a wave that is in the process of acceleration, for whatever mass psychological reasons. Given a single price objective and a specific length of time allotted, anyone can draw a satisfactory hypothetical Elliott wave channel from the same point of origin on both arithmetic and semilog scale by adjusting the slope of the 75 waves to fit. Thus, the question of whether to expect a parallel channel on arithmetic or semilog scale is still unresolved as far as developing a tenet on the subject. If the price development at any point does not fall neatly within two parallel lines on the scale you are using, switch to the other scale in order to observe the channel in correct perspective. To stay on top of all developments, you should always use both.



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Elliott Wave Principle and Wave Equality

One of the guidelines of the Wave Principle is that two of the motive waves in a five-wave sequence will tend toward equality in time and magnitude. This is generally true of the two non-extended waves when one wave is an extension, and it is especially true if the third wave is the extension. If perfect equality is lacking, a .618 multiple is the next likely relationship (see Chapters 3 and 4).
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When waves are larger than Intermediate degree, the price relationships usually must be stated in percentage terms. Thus, within the entire extended Cycle wave advance from 1942 to 1966, we find that Primary wave ① traveled 120 points, a gain of 129%, in 49 months, while Primary wave ⑤ traveled 438 points, a gain of 80% (.618 times the 129% gain), in 40 months (see Figure 5-5), far different from the 324% gain of the third Primary wave, which lasted 126 months.
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When waves are of Intermediate degree or below, the price equality can usually be stated in arithmetic terms, since the percentage lengths will also be nearly equivalent. Thus, in the year-end rally of 1976, we find that wave 1 traveled 35.24 points in 47 market hours while wave 5 traveled 34.40 points in 47 market hours. The guideline of equality is often extremely accurate.
Charting the Waves
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A.   Hamilton Bolton always kept an "hourly close" chart, i.e., one showing the end-of-hour prices, as do the authors. Elliott himself certainly followed the same practice, since in The Wave Principle, he presents an hourly chart of stock prices from February 23 to March 31, 1938. Every Elliott wave practitioner, or anyone interested in the Wave Principle, will find it instructive and useful to plot the hourly fluctuations of the DJIA, which are published by The Wall Street Journal and Barron’s. It is a simple task that requires only a few minutes’ work a week. Bar charts are fine but can be misleading by revealing fluctuations that occur near the time changes for each bar but not those that occur within the time for the bar. Actual print figures must be used on all plots. The so-called "opening" and "theoretical intraday" figures published for the Dow averages are statistical inventions that do not reflect the averages at any particular moment. Respectively, these figures represent a sum of the opening prices, which can occur at different times, and of the daily highs or lows of each individual stock in the average regardless of the time of day each extreme occurs.

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The foremost aim of wave classification is to determine where prices are in the stock market’s progression. This exercise is easy as long as the wave counts are clear, as in fast-moving, emotional markets, particularly in impulse waves, when minor movements generally unfold in an uncomplicated manner. In these cases, short term charting is necessary to view all subdivisions. However, in lethargic or choppy markets, particularly in corrections, wave structures are more likely to be complex and slow to develop. In these cases, a longer term chart often effectively condenses the action into a form that clarifies the pattern in progress. With a proper reading of the Wave Principle, there are times when a sideways trend can be forecasted (for instance, for a fourth wave when wave two is a zigzag). Even when anticipated, though, complexity and lethargy are two of the most frustrating occurrences for the analyst. Nevertheless, they are part of the reality of the market and must be taken into account. The authors highly recommend that during such periods you take some time off from the market to enjoy the profits made during the rapidly unfolding impulse waves. You can’t "wish" the market into action; it isn’t listening. When the market rests, do the same.
The correct method for tracking the stock market is to use semilogarithmic chart paper, since the market’s history is sensibly related only on a percentage basis. The investor is concerned with percentage gain or loss, not the number of points traveled in a market average. For instance, ten points in the DJIA in 1980 meant a one percent move. In the early 1920s, ten points meant a ten percent move, quite a bit more important. For ease of charting, however, we suggest using semilog scale only for long term plots, where the difference is especially noticeable. Arithmetic scale is quite acceptable for tracking hourly waves since a 40 point rally with the DJIA at 800 is not much different in percentage terms from a 40 point rally with the DJIA at 900. Thus, channeling techniques work acceptably well on arithmetic scale with shorter term moves.
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Elliott Wave and Triangle
A triangle appears to reflect a balance of forces, causing a sideways movement that is usually associated with decreasing volume and volatility. The triangle pattern contains five overlapping waves that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3 and are labeled A-B-C-D-E. A triangle is delineated by connecting the termination points of waves A and C, and B and D. Wave E can undershoot or overshoot the A-C line, and in fact, our experience tells us that it happens more often than not.
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There are three varieties of triangles: contracting, barrier and expanding, as illustrated in Figure 1-42. Elliott contended that the horizontal line of a barrier triangle could occur on either side of the triangle, but such is not the case; it always occurs on the side that the next wave will exceed. Elliott’s terms, "ascending" and "descending," are nevertheless useful shorthand in communicating whether the barrier triangle occurs in a bull or bear market, respectively.
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Figure 1-42 depicts contracting and barrier triangles as taking place entirely within the area of preceding price action, which may be termed a regularr triangle. Yet, it is extremely common for wave B of a contracting triangle to exceed the start of wave A in what may be termed a running triangle, as shown in Figure 1-43. Despite their sideways appearance, all triangles, including running triangles, effect a net retracement of the preceding wave at wave E’s end.
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There are several real life examples of triangles in the charts in this book (see Figures 1-27, 3-15, 5-5, 6-9, 6-10 and 6-12). As you will notice, most of the subwaves in a triangle are zigzags, but sometimes one of the subwaves (usually wave C) is more complex than the others and can take the shape of a multiple zigzag. In rare cases, one of the sub-waves (usually wave E) is itself a triangle, so that the entire pattern protracts into nine waves. Thus, triangles, like zigzags, occasionally display a development that is analogous to an extension. One example occurred in silver from 1973 through 1977 (see Figure 1-44).
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A triangle always occurs in a position prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree, i.e., as wave four in an impulse, wave B in an A-B-C, or the final wave X in a double or triple zigzag or combination (see next section). A triangle may also occur as the final actionary pattern in a corrective combination, as discussed in the next section, although even then it usually precedes the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree than the corrective combination. Although upon extremely rare occasions a second wave in an impulse appears to take the form of a triangle, it is usually due to the fact that a triangle is part of the correction, which is in fact a double three (for example, see Figure 3-12).
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In the stock market, when a triangle occurs in the fourth wave position, wave five is sometimes swift and travels approximately the distance of the widest part of the triangle. Elliott used the word "thrust" in referring to this swift, short motive wave following a triangle. The thrust is usually an impulse but can be an ending diagonal. In powerful markets, there is no thrust, but instead a prolonged fifth wave. So if a fifth wave following a triangle pushes past a normal thrust movement, it is signaling a likely protracted wave. Post-triangle advancing impulses in commodities at degrees above Intermediate are usually the longest wave in the sequence, as explained in Chapter 6.
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Many analysts are fooled into labeling a completed triangle way too early. Triangles take time and go sideways. If you examine Figure 1-44 closely, you will see that one could have jumped the gun in the middle of wave b, pronouncing the end of five contracting waves. But the boundary lines of triangles almost never collapse so quickly. Subwave C is typically a complex wave, though wave B or D can fulfill that role. Give triangles time to develop.
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On the basis of our experience with triangles, as the examples in Figures 1-27 and later in 3-11 and 3-12 illustrate, we propose that often the time at which the boundary lines of a contracting triangle reach an apex coincides with a turning point in the market. Perhaps the frequency of this occurrence would justify its inclusion among the guidelines associated with the Wave Principle.
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Elliott Wave and Guidelines of Wave Formation
The guidelines presented throughout this chapter are discussed and illustrated in the context of a bull market. Except where specifically excluded, they apply equally in bear markets, in which context the illustrations and implications would be inverted.
Alternation
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The guideline of alternation is very broad in its application and warns the analyst always to expect a difference in the next expression of a similar wave. Hamilton Bolton said,
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The writer is not convinced that alternation is inevitable in types of waves in larger formations, but there are frequent enough cases to suggest that one should look for it rather than the contrary.
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Although alternation does not say precisely what is going to happen, it gives valuable notice of what not to expect and is therefore useful to keep in mind when analyzing wave formations and assessing future probabilities. It primarily instructs the analyst not to assume, as most people tend to do, that because the last market cycle behaved in a certain manner, this one is sure to be the same. As "contrarians" never cease to point out, the day that most investors "catch on" to an apparent habit of the market is the day it will change to one completely different. However, Elliott went further in stating that, in fact, alternation was virtually a law of markets.
Alternation Within An Impulse
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If wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. Figure 2-1 shows the most characteristic breakdowns of an impulse wave, either up or down, as suggested by the guideline of alternation. Sharp corrections never include a new price extreme, i.e., one that lies beyond the orthodox end of the preceding impulse wave. They are almost always zigzags (single, double or triple); occasionally they are double threes that begin with a zigzag. Sideways corrections include flats, triangles, and double and triple corrections. They usually include a new price extreme, i.e., one that lies beyond the orthodox end of the preceding impulse wave. In rare cases, a regular triangle (one that does not include a new price extreme) in the fourth wave position will take the place of a sharp correction and alternate with another type of sideways pattern in the second wave position. The idea of alternation within an impulse can be summarized by saying that one of the two corrective processes will contain a move back to or beyond the end of the preceding impulse, and the other will not.
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Figure 2-1
A diagonal does not display alternation between subwaves 2 and 4. Typically both corrections are zigzags. An extension is an expression of alternation, as the motive waves alternate their lengths. Typically the first is short, the third is extended, and the fifth is short again. An extension, which normally occurs as wave 3, sometimes occurs as wave 1 or 5, another manifestation of alternation.
Alternation Within Corrective Waves
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If a correction begins with a flat a-b-c construction for wave A, expect a zigzag a-b-c formation for wave B, and vice versa (see Figures 2-2 and 2-3). With a moment’s thought, it is obvious that this occurrence is sensible, since the first illustration reflects an upward bias in both subwaves while the second reflects a downward bias.
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Quite often, when a large correction begins with a simple a-b-c zigzag for wave A, wave B will stretch out into a more intricately subdivided a-b-c zigzag to achieve a type of alternation, as in Figure 2-4. Sometimes wave C will be yet more complex, as in Figure 2-5. The reverse order of complexity is somewhat less common. An example of its occurrence can be found in wave 4 in Figure 2-16.
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