Anyone with a car or gas central heating will surely remember the huge price increases these staple fuels experienced back in 2022, just as inflation on all other goods was also running wild. Brent hit a high of $122.70 per barrel last summer. Meanwhile, the decidedly seasonal natural gas also shot up massively, with the Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures chart rising almost to ten times the amount of its November/December 2020 level to reach a whopping €290.05 per MWh in late August of last year.

After that peak, however, both these energy resources experienced a heavy downward trend, one which is still decidedly in effect for natural gas. Oil's trajectory has been slightly different but with much the same destination. Brent crude dropped more sharply to hit a low in March 2023 that has remained for the most part ever since.

But what investors would like to know just as the heating season got well and truly underway with a bang this week in Europe is this: What can we expect from the prices of these fuels up until the end of winter? Will the OPEC production cuts yield the desired result of higher prices? And will the cold winter ahead be enough to drive up the landed cost of LPG even after Europe and the US have had a full year to plan for this eventuality? Let's find out the answers to all of these questions and more in today's article.

Gas heating up

As we already touched upon briefly, natural gas has been almost in freefall since its huge growth back in the summer of 2022. Now, the critical energy source stands at the lower end of its historical average range, with the Dutch TTF showing €39.60 per MWh and the Henry Hub trading at $2.72 per MMBtu (as of 6 December), which represents an almost 80% average discount on last year's peak prices.

This is not without reason, however. Europe learnt its lesson from last winter and has steadily been increasing reserves to capacity. As a result, inventories are now at record highs, while European gas demand has fallen to 15–20% below its pre-pandemic levels on reduced industrial demand. One would, therefore, expect that everything should be under control for this winter's heating demand peak, right?

Well, perhaps it's not quite that simple. While energy security is in a much better place than it was 12 months ago, we would do well to avoid being overly optimistic. Gas will remain tight in Europe until Q1 2025 at least, with the latest wave of supply projected to hit the market in 2025–2026. If this winter proves to be as harsh as some predict, we might be caught off-guard, particularly if there are any supply disruptions or increased industrial demand in Asia and beyond. After all, inflation appears to be stabilising, and PMI will likely then return to growth territory, even in Europe.

If this happens, the likelihood of gas price rises will increase exponentially, with the Henry Hub even more likely to gain given the relative strength of the US economy and labour market and the Fed already moving away from its hawkish policy and inflation almost stable.

Oil is still a contender despite the green agenda

Crude is another key energy commodity that has fallen from dizzy heights down to more manageable levels within the past year. And despite supply-side issues related to regional geopolitical instability — this time both in Europe and the Middle East — Brent has somehow managed to avoid revisiting the zenith of $120+ per barrel. In reality, there are multiple downward pressures working against oil, but to little avail, it would seem.

First, we have the overwhelming global trend towards greener sources of energy, with electrified vehicles leading the charge. Then, there is the extremely powerful factor of OPEC and its associated oil-producing nations. The cartel, with Russia and Saudi Arabia leading the chase, has already agreed to sustain production cuts.

Back on 5 November, both the KSA and Russian Federation agreed to extend their voluntary output cuts of 1 million bpd and 300,000 bpd, respectively, through the end of the year. In fact, according to Reuters, the two major OPEC players are expected to convene later this month in order to decide on "extending, deepening or increasing" their daily cuts. The knock-on effect of this phenomenon, coupled with rising demand from a resurgent Chinese industrial sector, is expected to drive prices up in the final quarter of 2023.

The US Energy Information Administration predicts that Brent will hit $93 by the end of 2023, with Light Sweet and WTI not far behind. If oil does hit this level by year's end, the probability of continued gains in 2024 can only rise.

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Libertex (https://libertex.com/) is a broker offering CFDs in a vast array of different asset classes, from stocks, indices, and ETFs to metals, energy resources, agricultural commodities, and, of course, energy commodities such as natural gas and crude oil. Libertex provides both long and short positions in major oil and gas underlying assets like WTI, Light Sweet, Brent and Henry Hub Natural Gas.


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79.1% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

As we head into the final month of 2023, it’s worth noting that this has been a much-improved year for US stocks after two torrid years of ever-lower lows from 2021–2022. Despite huge geopolitical uncertainty across Europe, the Middle East and Asia, above-target inflation, and energy shortfalls, equities have somehow managed to avoid the typical declines associated with global instability. Since January, the US’s Big Three indices – the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have managed to gain 47.54%, 18.9% and 6.08% respectively as at the time of writing (22/11/2023). And this doesn’t even tell the full story since some individual stocks such as Microsoft, Tesla and Nvidia have risen by as much as 57.5%, 118% and 252.2% respectively.

And while these YTD numbers are of course useful, momentum is what investors are interested in for the most part. Well, the good news is that a large bulk of these gains have been made in the last 3–4 months, with little to suggest a slowdown on the horizon. As usual, the main factors remain US monetary policy, the labour market and consumer confidence – all of which are looking fairly conducive to stock market returns at present. With the end of the year in sight, we’ll be looking at how these key fundamentals are likely to evolve in the coming months and the expected effect on US equities.

Right said FED

The impact of monetary policy on stocks is well known and the US regulator is without a doubt the most influential of all central banks. Amid runaway inflation back in 2021–2022, the US Federal Reserve acted decisively to raise interest rates while its counterparts in Europe and the rest of the world were hesitant – though it did take nearly a year of “transitional” hyperinflation to convince them. Despite the initial pain, the Fed’s strategy has proven to be the correct one as price pressure in the US sits at a much healthier 3.24%, while much of the eurozone remains above 5% and some EU nations continue to battle double-digit inflation. There has been much speculation as to whether the US regulator is done with its current rate hike cycle, with Fed Governor Lisa Cook stating that the central bank's current 5.25–5.50% rate is sufficient to bring inflation back to the 2% target. CitiBank analysts stated in a report earlier this week that it believes “Fed officials are most likely done raising rates this cycle”, while the CME Group's FedWatch Tool actually assesses the odds of a rate cut after Q1 at about 57%. Needless to say, stocks' strong performance over the past three months have been driven at least in part by the rapid drops in inflation and anticipation of an end to the Fed’s hawkish policy. If we get confirmation of this, then it can only be good for equities well into 2024.

Lucky numbers

The other major positive factor affecting risk assets like stocks is unsurprisingly the wider macroeconomic context – and this is typically measured by key economic indicators like the labour market, consumer sentiment, and various PMIs. In spite of high inflation and general uncertainty, the US labour market has counterintuitively been at its strongest in years. According to the latest non-farms payrolls reports, unemployment is at a very healthy 3.9%, with 297,000 new jobs added in September and 150,000 in October. What’s more, seasonal employment around the holidays is expected to see even more positions created before the end of the year. And while The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US is lowish at 60.4 for November, this is expected to improve as global tensions ease and the market’s strong performance becomes apparent. After all, consumer sentiment is based on the subjective opinions of ordinary people, which often tend to lag behind the market. For a services-based economy like the US, the non-manufacturing PMI is a huge indicator of general economic health and, despite not pulling up any trees, it has stayed solid above 50 for over six months now and is only likely to rise further as the Christmas and New Year celebrations boost demand for both goods and services. Let’s not forget that the market can often trail somewhat behind the key data – that’s why they call them leading indicators. With this in mind, these favourable numbers combined with a more dovish Fed policy could see the equities’ bull market continue into next year.

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Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79.1% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

There's been talk of a commodities super cycle for years now, and yet hard assets continue to disappoint. With the pandemic and then post-COVID hyperinflation, many had reasonably expected an explosion in safe-haven assets, of which gold is perhaps the quintessential. Sadly for gold bugs, it never seemed to come. Following the initial 25% gain in the first half of 2020, the yellow metal has been decidedly flat, and with inflation hitting double digits for much of last year, this actually represents a decline in real terms. Barring natural swings and corrections, gold has been steady in and around its current price of $1976 since September 2020. And now, as the global geopolitical situation grows increasingly tense month after month, precious metals investors are wondering what it will take to finally see some sizable moves to the upside for gold and silver.

The current illogical lull in precious metals is yet another reminder that old models and theories don't always hold true in today's MMT world. The world's biggest economy, the US, is full of contradictions, and a more certain model doesn't appear to be forthcoming just yet. Despite all the conventional wisdom suggesting that haven assets should be booming, metals continue to slide lower, with gold dropping another 0.7% on 7 November. So, what are the causes of the seemingly unstoppable rot in gold and silver, and what can we expect over the coming months and years as the global community faces more and more instability and uncertainty?

Strong dollar overshadows gold's shine

As a dollar-denominated asset, there's no way that gold can escape the influence of the US national currency. Assuming all other factors remain equal, if the dollar loses value, then gold must axiomatically gain in value. It's worth remembering the historic achievement of EUR/USD parity from September to November 2022 and how that left gold prices looking artificially stagnant.

In reality, what had happened was that gold's real-world gains had merely moved in lock step with the greenback's and were thus invisible to the untrained eye. Now, the Fibre did eventually return to a more familiar 1.12 this June but then edged slowly back down to 1.05. Now that we've seen some more encouraging movement to the upside for EUR/USD throughout October, the yellow metal actually managed to gain more than 6% in October, outperforming euro gold by more than one whole percentage point. And though it has now declined by 0.75% since the start of November, this is less than half the drop seen in the euro price per Troy ounce (-1.9%). Silver managed about 75% of the net gains of its more valuable counterpart, recording a 3.26% rise over the last 30 days. With a strong labour market and inflation close to under control, however, we might be wise to expect the dollar's strength to grow given the ECB's more dovish monetary policy compared to the Fed. This could then negatively impact dollar-denominated precious metals' prices.

A lack of interest

The next major factor affecting the prices of precious metals is also connected to central bank policy: rising interest rates. As we've already touched upon, the Fed has been much more hawkish in its rate-rising cycle, and this has finally paid dividends in the form of a return to the semi-normal inflation rate of 3.7% this month. It's still not quite at the 2% target rate, but Fed Governor Lisa Cook believes the central bank's current interest rate of 5.25-5.50% is adequate to get price pressure down to where they want it.

The problem gold and silver have with this is that they are non-yielding assets. This means that their holders do not receive any interest for holding them. On the other hand, corporate and even Treasury bonds pay their holders a return in addition to the principle, and these increase as central bank interest rates rise. The US 2-year Treasury note now pays a handsome 4.934%, and many AA/AAA corporate bonds are paying well above 5%. In fact, even vanilla high-yield savings accounts are offering 4.5-5.5% interest at the moment.

This easy availability of above-inflation, highly liquid investment options will make it very hard for gold to remain attractive to its target market of risk-off investors looking for stable returns and protection against inflation. For this reason, gold bugs might be disappointed over the coming months, save for a drastic change in the macroeconomic situation worldwide.

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As any cryptocurrency investor or trader will tell you, it's been somewhat of a rollercoaster ride for Bitcoin and other digital currencies over the past couple of years. After a prolific rise, the bubble burst in late 2021. From a high of $64,400, Bitcoin crashed hard to a lowly $15,760 by November 2022. After the latest in a series of huge boom-bust cycles, it was understandable that many were wary to call a new bull market in digital assets, but since Bitcoin reached gains of over 100% in less than 12 months this Monday (23/10), sceptics everywhere finally began to believe that the crypto thaw was underway. Then, in the space of just a day, the original cryptocurrency shot up a full 10%, enough to melt the heart of even the biggest naysayer.

And although prices have corrected slightly since then, this week has truly been a watershed moment. Typically amongst some of the most conservative crypto investors, institutions recorded a fourth consecutive week of net inflows, with the latest figures putting their total weekly cash invested at $66 million. As usual, the factors behind the decisive market movement are varied and numerous, but chief amongst them right now has to be the imminent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission and coming shifts in the regulatory framework at large. As we head into Q4, crypto traders and investors are understandably keen to see where the market is headed. In this piece, we'll look at these two factors and try to draw conclusions for the rest of the year and beyond.

X marks the spot

After much discussion and delay, it appears that the long-awaited arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs will soon be upon us. Indeed, it transpired this week that Blackrock had listed its prospective product on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation database under the ticker $IBTC. But Blackrock is by far from the only horse in the race, with similar applications under review from Ark Invest, Invesco, and crypto fund trailblazer Grayscale, whose trust model has its downsides that full security status would mitigate.

After kicking the can down the road as long as is legally possible, the end of the SEC's 240-day review period is fast approaching. The most likely scenario, according to Volatility Shares Chief Investment Officer Stuart Barton, is that multiple products will be approved all at the same time so as to avoid giving one provider any undue advantage over its competitors. And while nothing is yet set in stone, the landmark overturning of the SEC's original ruling to deny Grayscale its spot ETF by a three-judge panel for the DC Court of Appeals in August has been taken by many market participants as a sign of a key sea change.

This dynamic, coupled with the institutional investment surge already noted, looks as if Bitcoin could be headed for a new bull market in the weeks and months ahead. As Woo Network's Jack Tan wrote in a recent note, "Bitcoin is in an 'anti-gravity' phase and could hit $75,000 in the coming months," going on to add that "the sudden spike is just a preview of what will happen if ETFs actually get approved."

Regulators gonna regulate

For many years, the cryptocurrency market was able to avoid regulation as a kind of outcrop of the financial markets populated exclusively by tech aficionados and early adopters. However, starting with the initial big boom of 2017 and intensifying with each subsequent bull cycle, digital currencies (Bitcoin especially) have garnered more and more attention from regulators the world over. The problem remains the lack of harmonisation globally, with huge variations in the way cryptocurrencies are treated.

For instance, in places like Switzerland and Singapore, crypto innovation is actively encouraged, and there is a clear legal framework for investors and businesses to operate within. Meanwhile, we also have countries like China that have cracked down on cryptocurrency activity, outlawing ICOs and cryptocurrency exchanges altogether. Even within the US, the lack of an unequivocal federal line means that there is huge legal variation between individual states. The SEC, however, cannot seem to reach a consensus on whether tokens and coins can be considered securities and has changed its positions several times since the 2017 DAO report was released.

Beyond security status, investors and traders are most interested in taxation and it appears that nationwide clarity is finally coming to the US on this particular matter. The IRS has finally released guidelines on how to calculate and report bitcoin gains and losses, and people must now declare their cryptocurrency holdings and transactions on their annual returns. Exchanges are also being required to implement strict KYC and AML checks on their depositors, and it is hoped that once both the tax and legal compliance issues are ironed out, even more institutions and funds will get on board with BTC, which will most likely result in further gains.

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Following a year of ups and downs for digital assets – amid regulatory uncertainty, increasing energy prices and investor hesitancy – things are finally looking up for cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin and Ethereum have both gained a whopping 38% and 65% YTD, those metrics don’t really tell the full story. Most of these gains came in a short burst of growth during the first few weeks of 2023, which famously followed a monster crash of almost 80% spanning from late 2021 throughout the entirety of 2022. Since March 2023, prices have been literally stagnant across a majority of digital currencies. But now, after six consecutive weeks of outflows, crypto is finally back in the game with $21 million of inflows recorded this week.

That said, however, it’s not all smiles for every digital currency, and there are still some definite winners and losers. Market leader Bitcoin recorded an impressive $20 million in inflows, while short BTC saw outflows of $1.5 million ($85 million since April). Major altcoin and potential Ethereum killer Solana had quite a good week, too, recording $5 million in net inflows and hitting a total value locked (TVL) of $338.8 million, its highest level this year.

Ethereum, on the other hand, continued its losing streak to post outflows of $1.5 million despite the buzz around a potential spot ETF product. As we enter Q4, investors want to know what the key factors will be for crypto and where we can expect prices to move.

Spot the difference

One of the biggest stories in the digital assets space this summer has been the SEC and its decision to approve multiple applications for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs from big names like Ark Invest, Blackrock and Invesco. The regulator has already taken full advantage of each possible comment and review period to delay making their final decision until their statutory 240-day response period is up. Commenters have suggested that this is to ensure no provider has an undue advantage over any other provider and that they will all likely be approved at once.

However, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has suggested an encouraging signal that the SEC could move to approve these earlier than the 10 January 2024 deadline. This is the fact that the regulator has sent comments to address the investment firms’ S-1 filings (related to plumbing, legal, and other technicalities). After all, VanEck’s Ethereum ETF is set to launch on the CBOE, though this has failed to ignite interest in the coin as expected. Bitcoin is a different animal altogether, though. Factors such as huge institutional demand, a proven track record, and trailblazer status coupled, of course, with its anti-inflationary model, make it much more likely to take off as an investment vehicle among more traditional investors.

Alt is the new black

Beyond the uptick in interest in BTC expected from institutions and more traditional investors, early adopters and true crypto aficionados are very much focusing their sights on the altcoin space for interesting and highly capable projects with good growth potential. With these savvy and prospective investors, functionality is everything. It’s also in this part of the market where we can expect to see the biggest swings in the coming months.

Solana, for instance, is already taking huge market share away from Ethereum and is slowly but surely laying the foundations to become the smart contract coin of choice. As we already mentioned, SOL reached a record TLV this past week and has enjoyed vigorous price growth over recent weeks. It’s currently trading in a horizontal range between $18 and $32 and sits comfortably at $23.14 at the time of writing on 5 October 2023. Since the beginning of the year, however, it has more than doubled in value to cast a shadow over the gains made by ETH and even BTC.

Another functional coin that is turning heads right now is Chainlink. In fact, in the past month alone, this smart contract darling is up 29.15% and looks set to make further gains before the year is up. The evidence would seem to suggest that two markets are now emerging – or rather, the bigger, more established projects like Bitcoin and Ethereum are being absorbed into the broader financial market system. As this trend deepens, the altcoin space will be fertile ground to grow for digital assets with real-world applications.

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Libertex (https://libertex.com/) is a trading platform with many years of experience connecting ordinary traders and investors with the financial markets. Libertex has an extensive offering of CFD products from numerous asset classes, including stocks, ETFs and energy, through to metals, options and, of course, crypto. The best thing about Libertex’s CFD model is that it allows you to trade long or short instantaneously without the need to physically hold any of the underlying instruments.

In addition to some of the biggest cryptocurrencies by market cap, such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), Libertex also offers CFDs in altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Chainlink (LINK). In fact, Libertex has over 120 different digital assets available to trade as CFDs, with market-leading conditions and spreads.


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79.1% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

The year so far has been a relatively good one for US equities, with the US big three indices of the Nasdaq 100 (+40.76%), S&P 500 (16.68%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+4.56%) all up significantly YTD. This comes after a fiendishly devastating 2022 that saw US tech stocks especially hard hit.

The good performance is almost illogical given the bleak situation around the world, with geopolitical instability, rising price pressure, and energy shortages abounding. Once again, the market reminds us just how unpredictable it can be. As always, however, macroeconomics will remain a leading factor in any analysis of the medium-to-long-term performance of key asset classes, including stocks and indices.

And as the world braced for the key release of the latest US inflation data — a metric that will undoubtedly help to guide Fed policy on interest rates — on 13 September 2023, investors and traders were looking for any hint as to where the market is headed in Q4 2023. Ahead of the release, stocks corrected slightly downwards while oil managed to cement its recent gains in response to the impending publication, but what does this mean is expected, and how will it affect equities and other key instruments?

Inflation not out of air yet

The latest Consumer Price Index report revealed that, far from melting away, inflation in August was reported at 4.3% year-over-year, with elevated energy prices threatening to keep headline inflation at 3.7% or above for the foreseeable future. This was slightly worse than the predicted level of 3.6%, but it's the increases in core expenses like petrol (+10.6%) and rent (+0.5%) that make the situation worse.

What's more, energy costs — and natural gas, in particular — are only going to increase further as the winter sets in. And this winter is tipped to be a cold one. If these numbers show anything, it's that we're unlikely to reach the Fed's target inflation rate by Christmas, at least not organically. That means that the US regulator could still be forced to intervene with additional rate hikes, which will push consumer finance rates higher and thus reduce ordinary people's spare income for investment.

This impact will be further exacerbated by the higher central heating and petrol prices, leaving very little left over at the end of the month. As we touched upon earlier, US stocks had already dipped overnight in the futures market, with the S&P 500 (.SPX) falling 0.6% and the Nasdaq losing 1%. This would suggest that the smart money was always banking on these CPI figures coming out worse than expected. However, this did not play out to significant declines during regular trading on Wednesday, which could be a positive sign for the longer term.

Essential oils

Oil is holding on to its recent gains and shaping up for further rises in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. We've already seen pump prices increase nearly 10% this month, and with crude still rising, who knows where it will end. Industrial production is up in China and India, and to sustain this activity, fuel is required. In fact, China's state-owned energy giant Sinopec recently issued a tender for as many as 25 LNG cargoes between October 2023 and December 2024. Despite the green revolution, internal combustion engine vehicles are still by far the most numerous across Europe and the US, and many people drive more in winter to avoid the cold.

In light of this expected demand hike, the effects of the OPEC+ production cuts are going to be even more pronounced. We must remember that Saudi Arabia and Russia recently agreed to extend their respective 1 million and 300,000 bpd cuts to the end of 2023. With Brent already above $90 a barrel for the first time in almost a year, we could be headed for another energy crunch unless supply-side pressure eases.

Natural gas, on the other hand, is at a multi-year low and a veritable million miles away from the prices we saw in late 2022. Given the geopolitical instability in Europe and the colder-than-usual winter predicted ahead, demand is set to skyrocket in the winter. Without any stable gas supply through traditional routes, LNG is likely still to be a huge part of the Old Continent's energy mix, so the Henry Hub could be one to watch in the coming months.

Diversify yourself with Libertex

Since none of us truly know what's going to happen in the markets, it's always best to cover as many bases as possible. However, holding multiple brokerage accounts and purchasing commodities like gold, oil and gas can be a serious headache for the ordinary investor.

That's what makes Libertex's CFD model so attractive. With them, you can hold a varied CFD portfolio of everything from stocks, forex, crypto and, of course, commodities in one comfortable location. You also don't need to actually own the underlying assets. What's more, Libertex can offer leveraged trading on both long and short positions on a variety of CFDs, including major indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average through to energy commodities like Brent, WTI, Light Sweet and the Henry Hub.

With experience spanning two decades, Libertex has a long history of connecting ordinary traders and investors with the financial markets, all with market-leading terms and conditions. For more information about Libertex and the range of products it can offer you, visit www.libertex.com


Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77.77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. Tight spreads apply. Please check our spreads on the platform. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.