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Messages - Hugo Barbosa

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16
2020 is destined to be an extraordinary year, under the influence of the COVID19, Bitcoin completed the historic bottoming quickly. On the eve of halving, the price down from $10000 to $3800. When the price falling sharply, a large amount of money poured in. Eventually, thanks to the overfall and the halving, bitcoin was successfully brought back to the original point of $10,000 and touched the bottom of the V-shape.


As a result of the halving, the whole Bitcoin market has undergone tremendous changes. The emergence of DEFI, in which COMP soared about 500%, led to a feverish in the whole digital money wealth management market. As of July, the locked fund in the DEFI market officially exceeded $2 billion! Following the boom of DEFI, dual-currency also showed a sharp surge. According to BitOffer, the transaction volume of dual-currency financial management surged by 10 times recently. Moreover, due to the convergence of Bitcoin fluctuation in July, the return of dual-currency financial management increased by nearly 50%.



In fact, users flocked to aggressively buying BitOffer dual-currency, is the result of multiple factors:



External Factors:

  • Affected by COVID19, most people tend to reduce the financial risk
  • Recently, under the smaller undulation of Bitcoin’s price, people turn to find other possibilities in the financing market
  • Financial market substantial increase in revenue which appeals to people


Internal Factors:

  • One-day financial planning average of 1%+ stable returns
  • Earn your profits no matter the rise and fall
  • Flexible configuration with different choices of period
  • Earn BTC while the price goes down, earn USDT while the price goes up
  • Easily making profits with wisely financial management
  • Annualized returns of up to 1,000%

With the combination of internal and external factors, many investment users have seen the advantages of dual-currency. Rather than sinking in the spot market, it is better to secure fixed income.

The advantage of dual-currency


For example, the current price of bitcoin is $10,000. Take holding one bitcoin as an example.




If bitcoin goes up 2% and the price of Bitcoin is 10200, then you will get a return of $200 from holding spot. If you buy dual-currency at the fixed price of 10200, and the profit forecast is more than 2 points, then USDT will be settled when the bitcoin rises to $10200, and your return will be about $200.




If the future does not rise or fall or is around 10000 USD, then the spot is basically break-even. But if you buy 1-day dual-currency finance at 10000 USD, the yield will be around 1 point. No matter whether the settlement is BTC or USDT, it is equivalent to making 100 USD.




If the spot drops 2%, or even more, then your spot loss will more than $200. Meanwhile, dual-currency pegged to 9800 prices, the earnings forecast is around 0.5%, which gives you BTC as income, then you can still earn about $50. If you buy a dual-currency with the pegged price of $10,000 when it falls to 9800, then the one-day return can be as high as 3%, which equivalently that the subsequent Bitcoin will return to the origin of $10,000 with the cash break-even, you will earn at least $300.


Therefore, Lucian, the chief analyst of BitOffer pointed out, because of the unique reverse option mechanism of dual-currency, even in the bitcoin plunge, you can still achieve a high annualized return. Compared with traditional finance, which the highest annualized return is only 5%, while the one-week return of dual-currency easily beats it. And in the BTC sideways shock period can still achieve a stable 1 point of income, very suitable for individual investors. There is no need to judge the rise and fall of the currency price, earn BTC while the price goes down, earn USDT while the price goes up, which is very suitable to replace spot products.

17
Most people think of volatility in the negative context, i.e. downside risk due to negative volatility. But any currency that was amongst the best performing for 6 of the last 7 years would mathetically be likely to amongst the most volatile as well.

18
The biggest feature of BitOffer is that no matter whether it is a bull market or a bear market, it has the opportunity to obtain up to a thousand times of excess income without any margin or handling fee. Bitcoin could not be keeping upward all the time, that's a better way to lower our risks.

19
My simplest answer is "no need".

Bitcoin "does not need" to be accepted as a currency because it has an uncertain price character.
Bitcoin is not a currency but Bitcoin is a "digital asset".
Bitcoin is made a currency, it means it must have a country and in this world any country that has a price of its currency is "stable" and it is already owned and validated by the state.

You make the point. Indeed, as Bitcoin is the leading coin around the world with competitive value and potential, Bitcoin no needs to be accepted at this point. However, Bitcoin got where it is today with neutralized by most governments and organizations. It is already legendary, though If Bitcoin were accepted by the wider world, it would be a different story.

20
Because of the sharp fluctuation of the exchange price of sovereign currency, and its super-sovereign currency feature has also attracted the attention of the public. Bitcoin is also a value symbol and the value is reflected in the exchange. I feel positive about it.

21




At the time of this writing, according to Population Matters, there were an estimated 7.8 billion people on earth. While you reading this, the world's population continues to grow slowly.

As the dollar is the agreed global reserve currency, we can imagine everyone owning at least a dollar or trillions of dollars worth of other surplus assets.
Dollars are being printed by a huge margin which at a much faster rate than population growth. This applies not only to the dollar but to the currencies of other countries around the world.

Except for Bitcoin

Between its creation in 2009 and 2140 the year that end of the mining cycle, there will be 21m bitcoins Bitcoins been produced (some of which are permanently lost). As of today, about 87% of the total amounts of Bitcoins have been mined. Over the next 120 years, there are remaining roughly 2.8 million bitcoins which are getting exponentially difficult to produce.

Calculate form the current population and currently available bitcoins, we can infer that by distributing bitcoins equally among everyone on the earth, each person would get 0.00234,497 bitcoins. Or, to put it another way, would be about 234497 Satoshi.

Just as we use penny for a fraction of the pieces dollar, we also take Satoshis for a fraction of the tiny bitcoin. In the future, the reality is that most of us will tend to buy and sell Satoshi bitcoins, as the value of Bitcoins will go to a higher level.

At the time of this writing, the price of Bitcoin is about $9,200 and will cost you $20 to own 0.00234,497 bitcoins. In other words, in present, for only $20, you're mathematically guaranteed to have more Bitcoins than the average person on the Earth has in the future.

However, it is a simplification that intentionally excludes many other factors, so we need to look deeper into the actual Numbers.

Eventhough there are still more than two million bitcoins waiting to be mined, but in the next 120 years, more people will be born on earth.

Understandably, the projections for the global population in 2140 are varied, but assuming we haven't blown ourselves up or discovered some other ingenious way to wipe humanity off the face of the earth, we should expect the number to reach 12 billion by then.

Similarly, with simple math, if you want to buy bitcoins for your great-grandchildren, meanwhile all remaining bitcoins have been successfully mined, you would need 0.00175 bitcoins or 16 dollars.





However, there is a significant amount of bitcoin has been lost and may never be recovered. In the early days, bitcoin had no value and was easy to purchase. Those who started mining just for fun in the old-time now having accumulated hundreds (or even thousands) of bitcoins. However, some of them already forget about it or lose the private keys. Without the private key, the Bitcoins will never be recovered.

James Howell, a prominent IT worker in the UK, dug up 7,500 bitcoins in his early days and accidentally discarded the hard drive where the keys were stored. The hard drive is in a landfill in Wales, and Howell fails for attempting to get permission from the City Council to assess the landfill.

Howell's story is not rare. The Internet is full of people that tell stories about their loss. These kinds of things are still happening today.

There are many estimates and methods for estimating lost bitcoins, which are always visible on the blockchain, but never accessible and there is no way of knowing who they belong to. If we need 0.0023188 Bitcoins then we should have our minimum average amount or $20 worth of bitcoins.

There are also other investment choices. The biggest feature of BitOffer is that no matter whether it is a bull market or a bear market, it has the opportunity to obtain up to a thousand times of excess income without any margin or handling fee. Bitoffer options provide 7 choices from 2 minutes to 7 days. Besides, it is worth mentioning that the bitcoin option spot index is composed of the equivalent weights of 7 exchanges.

In terms of operation, bullish is expected to buy, and bearish is expected to buy. The profit calculation is the same as the spot when buying up, how much will increase in the period to earn, when buying falls, how much will fall in the period to earn In short, it is to use a very small principal to bet on the ups and downs of the future range, to obtain high returns. Recently, Bitoffer launched the strongest Ethereum option, with 0 margins, 0 handling fee, and no need to exercise.

22
Indeed, Andy is a brilliant analyst, we could learn something from his forethoughtfulness strategies.

23
I'd say scalability issues and POS algorithm will be greater than the previous version. There will be more transactions per second and it can beat some existing systems such as Visa Mastercard and it could beat by speed and cost of the transaction that is the main difference we will see soo what it's going to be like for.

24
Agree, once the halving took place, the miners started to sell, so the price of BTC dropped, as their cost of production doubled for power costs. The rise in BTC prices came after a few months following the halving.

25
According to the options trading data from BitOffer, On June 26, with the due to settlement exceeding $1 billion, Bitcoin has experienced its largest option expiration event in history. Of which BitOffer exchanges accounted for 73%, followed by Deribit and OKEX. This is an important milestone for the digital asset space, reflecting the rapid growth of the cryptocurrency options market through 2020 and its growing influence on bitcoin price movements.





The question is this phenomenon leads to significant market volatility? This is the main concern of most investors. The price of Bitcoin continued to decline on June 26, the day it was hitting an intraday low of $8,841, which is the lowest price recently. It is worth noting that a large number of expirations mean that a new round of open options contracts will follow, and there are strong bullish expectations for bitcoin's performance after halving. It is likely to spur a V-shaped rebound of bitcoin and breakthrough $10,000.


Lucian, the chief analyst at BitOffer exchange said that the encryption currency derivatives market has developed rapidly in 2020, especially in the options volume constantly refresh the record. At the same time, we also see the ETH options in rapid growth, at the month of ETH options being launch in BitOffer, its volume became more than $500 million. The options market is getting popular and the encryption market is gradually maturing, and likely having a better prospect versus the contract market.


As is known to all, BitOffer is the largest bitcoin options exchange, and it has launched the world's first American-style options of BTC, ETH, BSV, and BCH. The biggest feature of BitOffer is that no matter whether it is a bull market or a bear market, it has the opportunity to obtain up to a thousand times of excess income without any margin or handling fee. Bitoffer options provide 11 sections to choose from 2 minutes to 7 days. Besides, it is worth mentioning that the bitcoin option spot index is composed of the equivalent weights of 7 exchanges.


For example, as the price of Bitcoin was 9000 US dollars, Tom and Jerry predict that Bitcoin was expected to continue to rise, so they bought bitcoin contract and bitcoin options, respectively.

Tom choose to purchase a Bitcoin contract which cost $9000
Jerry choose to buy a bitcoin option which costs about $5
As they wish, after Tom and Jerry placed the orders, the bitcoin price rose sharply, which less than an hour, from 9,000 US dollars to 9,500 US dollars.


By comparison, Tom and Jerry get the same benefits, but the cost gap is very large.

Tom spent $9,000 and earned $ 500, which is a 5.5% return on the cost.
Jerry spent $5 and earned $500, which is calculated as 10,000% of the income.
Conversely, if bitcoin fell from 9,000 US dollars to 8,500 US dollars in one hour, Tom will be lost 500 dollars, and Jerry only lost the option fee, which would be 5 dollars.

Which means Jerry can get an interest in BTC for a very low price. This is what we say Limited losses and Unlimited gains.


Since the price of Bitcoin has been very volatile, more and more investors have started to use options to hedge the downside risk of the spot, to realize a stable progressive investment.


For example, the current price of Bitcoin is $10,000:

If the price rises to $11,000, the spot profit will be $1,000
If the price falls to $9000, the spot loss will be $1000

The cost is only about $20 if you buy a put option for hedging on BitOffer. Once the bitcoin drops from $10,000 to $9,000, the spot loss will be $1,000 and the put option will make $1,000 without loss.


As the risk is completely washed out, when you start hedging, you could make money when the price goes up, and you could save the cost when it goes down. This is the hedge between options and spots, besides, many investors using options to hedge contracts as well.

26
Since rebounding from its Lows in March, Bitcoin has struggled to move higher which keeping ups and downs in a range of $9,000 to $10,000.

Despite the money pumped into the market by central Banks, bitcoin has yet to reach its five-figure value. This time, investors are either putting all their cash in the bank or pushing up the share prices, even include the share prices from the bankrupt companies.

Lucian, chief analysis at BitOffer, trust Bitcoin will be keeping the rise in the long-term. He advises that don't be distracted by the short-term price and to focus on the further future.

We could compare with a series of charts depicting this growing confidence from the investors.



Starting with the supply record, 61% of the bitcoin supply has been unchanged for more than a year. The high level of this record is a clear sign that investors are looking for the higher value. In addition, 44% of the bitcoin supplies has not moved in more than two years, which close to the all-time high again. Meanwhile, nearly 30% of supplies have not moved in more than three years.

The number of bitcoin destroyed per day has been declining since the bull market of 2017 and is now at its lowest level since 2016 (the lower the CDD means the more long-term hoarders). Bitcoin Coin days Destroyed is the number of Bitcoin traded on the chain multiplied by the number of days the currency was held. The greater the number indicates the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market.

Another indicator of long-term investors' high confidence in Bitcoin is the reserve risk, which at current levels suggests a ratio of attractive risk/return.

MVRV is the ratio of the market value of a digital currency asset to its realized value. It can be used to help measure the market tops and bottoms of digital currency assets, and 1 is an important cut-off point for MVRV. The MVRV above 1 indicates that the average market valuation of speculators is higher than that of holders. The MVRV below 1 indicates that the market valuation of the holder is higher than that of the current speculator.



After a long bear market, it usually falls below 1. The MVRV long/short difference represents the point at which the average short- and long-term trader get the profit.

Active indicators increase as long-term investors unwind positions and decrease as long-term investors accumulate holdings. Since 2019, activity indicators have shown a downward trend.

In fact, the number of occupied and lost bitcoins has grown 8% since the beginning of 2019 and is now more than 7.3 million, which is 40% of the bitcoin supply in circulation. The Bitcoin Hodler has been accumulating heavily this year, according to the chart, the change in BTC Hodler's data has been negative for only 16 days.

In the process, the average age at which bitcoin moves along the chain has been falling since 2018, according to MSOL.

Meanwhile, the amount of bitcoin that transferred through the chain has stagnated since 2016, despite the growth of the web, which is a clear indication of people reluctant to spend their Bitcoin.

Furthermore, Bitcoin's velocity, which measures the speed of units of assets moving through the network shows that it has fallen to its lowest level in a decade.

The balances of Bitcoin on varies exchanges have been falling since March, possibly in part because investors have chosen to host their own bitcoins. So overall, the market is bullish for the long term, with investors piling up the leading cryptocurrency to wait for the next big bull market.

The biggest feature of BitOffer is that no matter whether it is a bull market or a bear market, it has the opportunity to obtain up to a thousand times of excess income without any margin or handling fee. Bitoffer options provide 7 choices from 2 minutes to 7 days. Besides, it is worth mentioning that the bitcoin option spot index is composed of the equivalent weights of 7 exchanges.

In terms of operation, bullish is expected to buy, and bearish is expected to buy. The profit calculation is the same as the spot when buying up, how much will increase in the period to earn, when buying falls, how much will fall in the period to earn In short, it is to use a very small principal to bet on the ups and downs of the future range, to obtain high returns. Recently, Bitoffer launched the strongest Ethereum option, with 0 margins, 0 handling fee, and no need to exercise.

Sign up and enter the referral ID 007RTX to get $50.
https://www.bitoffer.com/en/register?invite_code=007RTX

27
There is a possibility, my friend. Personally, I think one of the main barriers to bitcoin breaking a high level is time, but the process is tortuous. Production is the most critical factor in determining the value of an asset, even if the price goes up, we can't produce more bitcoin, unlike gold, which we can increase production. As the supply of Bitcoin is halved, the ratio of inventory flow to production will double to 54 (very close to gold).

However, lead the world's currency market is quite different. this concept is higher above the specifics price that we talking about, it means people accept it and consider it as the most useful one. For example, the Bahraini dinar is the world's most valuable currency, but many of us didn't know about it at all. Bitcoin's outward self-presentation as a decentralized currency beyond politics, if Bitcoin became the world's leading currency, it will involve in the politics.

28
Meanwhile, the volume synchronizes shrink, which means from the short-term it will continue volatile with the high pressure. At present, the average trend starting upward. Once it soared in heavy trading volume, is expected to hit 10,000. Hold on tight my friend.

29
Bitcoin Forum / Re: Any chance btc price go up around 10k??
« on: June 24, 2020, 05:40:06 AM »
 At present, the average trend starting upward. Once soared in heavy trading volume, is expected to hit 10,000. However, it is 7 days left, we can't tell if it soared in heavy trading this week, we will see.

30
I think it depends on the time, eventually, Bitcoin will reach more than $100,000.
What do you mean? Do you think sooner or later the price of Bitcoin will be more than $100,000? I am curious why you are so confident about it. I expect much with my Bitcoin asset but I never think that the price will achieve $100,000. In my opinion, it is only a miracle if the price can go up to $100,000. I cannot imagine how many people can be rich suddenly if the price of Bitcoin can go up as you expected.  :D

Personally, I think one the main barrier to bitcoin breaking $100,000 is time, but the process is tortuous. Production is the most critical factor in determining the value of an asset, even if the price goes up, we can't produce more bitcoin, unlike gold, which we can increase production. As the supply of Bitcoin is halved, the ratio of inventory flow to production will double to 54 (very close to gold).

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