We have all heard that Bitcoin is digital gold, especially in the task of protecting assets during the inflation wave of 2021-2023[1], Bitcoin is even expected to become a new standard for assets in the future[2]. We have a lot of articles comparing Bitcoin with Gold, but they seem to belong to different worlds: Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, and Gold is a precious metal commodity[3].
I believe in the potential and future of Bitcoin, but I'm quite curious about the possibility that Bitcoin can replace Gold or at least catch up with Gold in capitalization.
According to statistical data, Gold's current capitalization is 13,474T USD, while Bitcoin's capitalization is 957.74B USD, only 7.1% of Gold's capitalization[4]. This means that assuming the Gold price remains unchanged, the Bitcoin price needs to increase by 14 times and 1BTC = 678K USD to catch up with Gold.
Obviously, this is no easy task in the upcoming cycle, even in PlanB's most optimistic prediction, 1BTC = 500K USD[5].
Looking at the BTC price chart, we see that the slope of the price chart gradually decreases with each cycle, confirming a weakening in price momentum, which is the opposite of what we can see on the DJIA chart. Assuming BTC will continue to fluctuate at its current rate of price growth, $678K USD will not arrive before 2028, meaning we cannot see BTC triumph over Gold before 2028. I think Bitcoin will catch up and surpass Gold in 3-4 more cycles, meaning around 2035-2040.
Of course this is just the simplest analysis I can present on a price chart, assuming the Gold price remains unchanged in the future. In fact, when inflation cannot be controlled, I believe that Gold price will continue to increase strongly in the future.
I personally do not expect that Bitcoin will surpass Gold, because by then, the BTC price will be too high and cause BTC to lose a lot of value in payments, maybe then BTC will only be in reserve account of governments.
I just want to see Bitcoin surpass top 2 Microsoft ~ cap 3,026T USD, at that time 1 BTC = 154K USD.
I want to know your opinion:
- Do you think Bitcoin has any chance of catching up and then surpassing Gold in capitalization?
- If so, when in the future might that event take place?
- If this happens, will it be a good thing for Bitcoin?
References:
[1] GrayScale: October 2023: Rising demand for Bitcoin as Digital Gold
[2] ‘The Bitcoin Standard’: A review
[3] Gold vs. Bitcoin: Which Is Better?
[4] Top Assets by Market Cap
[5] Bitcoin Will be Scarcer Than Gold After Halving, $500K BTC Price Predicted
Note:
- My opinion was posted first in that topic, on Bitcointalk
- I leave the source link to avoid plagiarism accusation.
- I excluded/ included minor things from an original thread if necessary.
This post raises interesting points about Bitcoin's potential to rival gold as a store of value, particularly during inflationary periods. However, I believe the comparison oversimplifies the dynamics of both assets. While Bitcoin is often dubbed "digital gold," it operates under fundamentally different principles, such as its volatility, regulatory challenges, and unique adoption curve.
Bitcoin’s future isn’t solely about catching up with gold’s market cap; it's about redefining the financial landscape. Gold has centuries of stability and trust as a safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin is still carving out its identity in the investment world. Instead of focusing on a direct competition, we should consider Bitcoin as a complementary asset that offers different benefits, such as portability and programmability, which gold cannot provide.
In the long run, the true measure of Bitcoin's value may not be its price relative to gold, but rather its ability to reshape how we think about money and value in a digital age. Therefore, rather than fixating on the capitalization comparison, it's essential to focus on Bitcoin's unique attributes and the evolving role it could play in a diversified portfolio.