Options traders aim for $100K Bitcoin by the end of 2021, is there a chance?

[RSRS]

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are known for being bullish, and even during 50% corrections like the current one, most analysts remain optimistic. One reason for investors' endless optimism and belief in infinite upside could be BTC's decreasing issuance and the 21 million coins fixed supply limit.

However, not even the most accurate models, including the stock-to-flow (S2F) from analyst Plan B, can predict bear markets, crashes, or FOMO-induced (fear of missing out) pumps. Traders usually misinterpret these concepts as value and price expectations can be easily mistaken.

Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum, even if BTC maximalists think so. Therefore, its price action heavily depends on how many dollars, euros, and yuans are in circulation and interest rates, real estate, equities, and commodities. Even global economic growth and inflationary expectations impact the risk appetite for people, companies, and mutual funds.

Bitcoin's current price drivers
Regardless of what these valuation models predict, price is exclusively composed by the market participants at any given moment. Opposite to what one might expect, data from CryptoQuant shows only 2.5 million Bitcoin currently deposited on exchanges. Compare this to the 10.7 million that hasn't been moved in the last 12 months according to 'HODL wave' data, and we can say that long-term holders have no say in the price.

As the difference between value (subjective) and price (historical and objective) becomes more evident, it is easier to understand why some investors expect $100,000 or higher targets for the end of 2021. However, to correctly interpret what odds are being placed for those prices, one needs to analyze the calls (buy) existing in the options markets.

Sourch