Traders are placing large bets on $50,000 Bitcoin options for June and December 2021, but what are the chances of BTC price reaching this level by then?
Over the past three weeks, $150,000 worth of Bitcoin (BTC) $50K call options for June and December 2021 strikes have been traded. LedgerX derivatives exchange has been intermediating these ultra bullish trades, but what could be the rationale behind them?
There are some good reasons for buying options with such small odds, but paying $1,000 for the privilege of purchasing Bitcoin 440% above the current price in 18 months seems unreasonable.
Even considering an annual 100% volatility, which is quite high even for Bitcoin’s standards, the probability that the price will reach $50,000 is less than 8%.
Source:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-options-data-shows-investors-betting-on-50k-btc-price-in-2021