Predictive models: market's natural law or whales manipulative game?

[MrSpasybo]

The Wyckoff Accumulation technical chart pattern has become the latest trending topic when anticipating where the price of Bitcoin (BTC) may go next. Some analysts have said that BTC’s recent dip below $29,000 signaled the “Spring” phase, which will soon be followed by a climb higher.

Source: Bitcoin spring? Wyckoff 'groundhog' indicates crypto winter may last another 6 weeks

First of all, for the Wyckoff model, I believe it is proving its worth in forecasting Bitcoin price movements during this correction. Each expert has a way to use this model in a specific time frame, I personally believe that Spring has not come yet, it will come in GrayScale unlock GBTC event.

The question is: why do predictive models of this kind seem so accurate?
+ Is it true that the crypto market is naturally fluctuating with investor sentiment so Wyckoff's prediction model is randomly correct?
+ Are whales using predictive models to manipulate the market, similar to the ones they use to manipulate indices and price charts to create FOMO & FUD like in the case of AXS?

I am a conspiracy theorist, so I think the second hypothesis is more appropriate, since the crypto market is still characterized by high manipulation by whales.

What do you think about all this? Do you believe in natural volatility or extreme manipulation?

[KryptoBull]

When we are concerned with the Wyckoff model, so are the whales, I believe they are using the Wyckoff model as bait and there is a last minute change so that all weak-hands holders have to surrender and hand over the crypto to the whales. Anyway, I still believe in the Wyckoff model, BTC price will recover and the whole market will go into phase 2 of bullrun.

[Review Master]

Still i'm believing on Wyckoff model, but having some feelings that it could be a trap for us by turning the rebounding into dead cat bounce. As per TA, we might have a dead cat bounce because of the crossover of 20 weekly MA and 50 weekly Ma. As per previous market history, market entered into bear after the crossover. But it could be changed if we get huge volumes for another bullish rally anf might be entered into the 2nd wave of bull season. 

[Jaephoenix]

I don't believe in conspiracy theories, and neither should you. I deal in hard facts, and you should too

[TomPluz]

I am not so familiar with this Wyckoff model, but if it has a proven track record of making the right predictions in Bitcoin price movement then certainly it can be holding water. Now, as to whales, most probably many of them are also using this kind of model and can be acting based on what they are seeing...so it can be just like a cycle or a self-fulfilling prophecy type. We know how whales can be influencing the market and it is basically because they are holding huge amount of the coin and whatever direction they are taking can be sending waves in the market much more so if there can be a number of them who can be acting in the same way.