Bitcoin Halving 2024 — Grayscale Study Reveals Unprecedented Market Evolution

[sirty143]

Bitcoin Halving 2024 — Grayscale Study Reveals Unprecedented Market Evolution

According to the latest data, the countdown to the Bitcoin network’s halving event shows fewer than 10,000 blocks from becoming a reality. Further analysis suggests that the halving is anticipated to take place between April 19 and April 21, 2024... See more for yourself here.

Your opinion is greatly appreciated.

[Yamane_Keto]

I tend to disagree with the analysis, as Ordinal inscriptions, and positive market structure updates will not change the market structure and the halving effect, as 3.125 bitcoins are still being produced for each block mined, while the average fees are still less than one bitcoin, and in the worst case, 2 bitcoins, and thus Miners will still rely on the block reward, which means the four-year cycle is still valid.

[Charles-Tim]

What is most important is the price of bitcoin. We all know that bull run will come after halving which will be significant enough to get bitcoin price to all-time-high. That is what that most matters as people that have been holding their coins before halving will make enough money some months after halving. I do not even need any analyst to tell me about this. It has been what has been happening since bitcoin has been created.

[philipma1957]

I tend to disagree with the analysis, as Ordinal inscriptions, and positive market structure updates will not change the market structure and the halving effect, as 3.125 bitcoins are still being produced for each block mined, while the average fees are still less than one bitcoin, and in the worst case, 2 bitcoins, and thus Miners will still rely on the block reward, which means the four-year cycle is still valid.

Well lets analyze.

12.5 with maybe .5 coin average in 2020 meant 13 coins.

½ dropped to 6.25+.5 = 6.75

13 to 6.75 is a true ½ or close enough.

now

6.25+.5 = 6.75

to

3.125 + ? = ?

if we do 1 coin it is

6.75 to 4.125  not that close to a ½  more like a ⅓

what is critical is what will fees be.  will they be .5 or 1 or 2

https://mempool.jhoenicke.de/#BTC,all,weight

clearly shows 2023 had the most sustained high fees ever.

it is obvious that the ½ effect is no longer a true ½ ing

do we drop 30% or 40% vs 48 or 49%

its new and this is the transition ½

[Yamane_Keto]

it is obvious that the ½ effect is no longer a true ½ ing

do we drop 30% or 40% vs 48 or 49%

its new and this is the transition ½

All of this depends on what the fees will be in 2024 and 2025. If their average is 0.3487 BTC/block,

this means 3.125 + 0.3487 = 3.4737

so 6.75 to 3.4737 is still ½.

If the fees go to 0.7 = 3.82, it is still close to ½.

I expect the effect of Ordinal inscriptions to be less,

therefore 3.125 + 0.5 = 3.625, and the ½ is still effective.

[TomPluz]

What is most important is the price of bitcoin. We all know that bull run will come after halving which will be significant enough to get bitcoin price to all-time-high. That is what that most matters as people that have been holding their coins before halving will make enough money some months after halving.

Halving is usually seen as a major impetus for possible bull run for Bitcoin. Now, this year, is quite unique and it is because of the establishments of many ETFs for Bitcoin. So we can see halving and ETF to be a duo power that will really push the price of Bitcoin upwards. For miners, this means that even if their rewards is now only half of what used to be the price can significantly repeal possible loss. In other words, Bitcoin mining will certainly continue to be profitable and who knows there can even be more players coming to the scene especially that there is a big possibility that USA government may get stricter with mining so opening up opportunities for other countries to join the prey...they might be coming to El Salvador to take advantage of the geothermal power available for them.