How high must BTC go to get interest in retail mining.

[philipma1957]

I need 180 k to want to mine at home.
I picked option 3.

[Findingnemo]

I voted for no price is good enough.

Since the price factor is irrelevant in my opinion, the retail miners can't compete with the large mining farms that operate where the conditions are really optimal like cheap electricity, the right weather conditions to reduce the heat. So even with the increased price still the retail miners can't compete with the increased mining difficulty.

[ABCbits]

I also vote "No price will be good enough.".

Some Industrial or commercial Bitcoin miner would take risk by bulk-purchase best ASIC they could get, leaving little for small miners. And as soon as they operate it, Bitcoin difficulty would rise where home miners (without low electricity price) forced to shutdown their ASIC to avoid losses.

[Stompix]

Some Industrial or commercial Bitcoin miner would take risk by bulk-purchase best ASIC they could get, leaving little for small miners. And as soon as they operate it, Bitcoin difficulty would rise where home miners (without low electricity price) forced to shutdown their ASIC to avoid losses.

It depends!
Let's say Bitcoin goes to 200k tomorrow, then to reduce the reward back to October levels industrial-scale mining operations would need to triple at least their hashrate, so, basically plug in twice as many ASICs that have been produced in the last 3 years, it will take a lot of time for that, form production to put on line, not to mention the energy required.

Going with s21xp hydro you would need 20 GW, so the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam or about 20 nuclear reactors 

[ABCbits]

Some Industrial or commercial Bitcoin miner would take risk by bulk-purchase best ASIC they could get, leaving little for small miners. And as soon as they operate it, Bitcoin difficulty would rise where home miners (without low electricity price) forced to shutdown their ASIC to avoid losses.

It depends!
Let's say Bitcoin goes to 200k tomorrow, then to reduce the reward back to October levels industrial-scale mining operations would need to triple at least their hashrate, so, basically plug in twice as many ASICs that have been produced in the last 3 years, it will take a lot of time for that, form production to put on line, not to mention the energy required.

Going with s21xp hydro you would need 20 GW, so the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam or about 20 nuclear reactors 

In such scenario, i can see some home miner take such opportunity to get ROI before big miner catch-up. Although if energy isn't problem for them, they could re-use their old ASIC rather than selling it.

[Mia Chloe]

I picked the first option (no price will be good enough) and my reason is simple.
I suggest that anyone who has the necessary wares at his disposal and a good electrical rate in his country and region should take the bold step to set up a small farm as the case may be. That's because as more miners troop in difficult increases and so does the hash rate required for a decent amount too .

Not to also mention that as more halving events pass block rewards are cut in half meaning you'll have to depend more on transaction fees too. Imagine how profitable it was for those that mined around 2009 - 2010 when block reward was roughly 50 bitcoins and mining was far easy because of the low requirements of hash rates. Satoshi and Laszlo can testify .

[Stompix]

In such scenario, i can see some home miner take such opportunity to get ROI before big miner catch-up. Although if energy isn't problem for them, they could re-use their old ASIC rather than selling it.

They will, it happened before when the last bull run hit, people were buying again miners that were obsolete, I don't quite remember the prices but I recall  s9 being scarce on the market because suddenly they were profitable again to mine, things that were like 30 going for 200 or something, I assume Phil knows the numbers better.

[Mia Chloe]

They will, it happened before when the last bull run hit, people were buying again miners that were obsolete, I don't quite remember the prices but I recall  s9 being scarce on the market because suddenly they were profitable again to mine, things that were like 30 going for 200 or something, I assume Phil knows the numbers better.

Yes you do have a point however to an extent there are a couple of things you need to consider too. so mining wares are actually more difficult to get in some regions and countries compared for others. Take for example in most African countries , shipping from websites like eBay or Amazon may even become more expensive than the item itself.
All these contribute to why miners can be fewer too. In fact sometimes when you get good deals on eBay they'll shipping option may End up being in a region very far from yours that a reshipping would be uneconomical.

[TomPluz]

I assumed that it is already nearly impossible to mine Bitcoin at home in terms of cost and logistics. In many countries, the cost of electricity makes it so hard to make a profit but am not sure if one day BTC can be at $200K there can be a spike of interest for retail mining, not to mention the area of legality. We should also note that competing with bigger mining operators can be another factor why home mining may not come that easy. I am just wondering what can happen if years from now BTC price can be at $1 million, would there be brave miners that can compete well in this business?

[philipma1957]

I assumed that it is already nearly impossible to mine Bitcoin at home in terms of cost and logistics. In many countries, the cost of electricity makes it so hard to make a profit but am not sure if one day BTC can be at $200K there can be a spike of interest for retail mining, not to mention the area of legality. We should also note that competing with bigger mining operators can be another factor why home mining may not come that easy. I am just wondering what can happen if years from now BTC price can be at $1 million, would there be brave miners that can compete well in this business?

believe it or not I think mining will shift to scrypt.  this is due to doge's constant block size.

Too bad I am 68 as I would love to be 30 right now in order to be able to see crypto in 30 years or so

[paid2]

I also voted for the first proposition.

Insofar as the difficulty is so high (114 T!!), I only solo mine as a lottery with some very small hashrate. So the price doesn't matter to me, I'm not going to run my ASICs to scrape a few satoshis a month, I let them mine solo hoping to get (extremely) lucky one day or another.

[target]

The price will definitely make people interested in mining but its the hardware that they need to mine BTC is going to make them think twice. Its prices are also rising while BTC price also rise. Even if there is interest in setting up mining farms, the cost might just be too much of an investment.

Also I think the mining is already regulated. I read the government will have to give miners licenses. I think it started when they make the narrative about climate change.

[philipma1957]

The price will definitely make people interested in mining but its the hardware that they need to mine BTC is going to make them think twice. Its prices are also rising while BTC price also rise. Even if there is interest in setting up mining farms, the cost might just be too much of an investment.

Also I think the mining is already regulated. I read the government will have to give miners licenses. I think it started when they make the narrative about climate change.
It looks like Trump and putin will try to melt the icecaps
Also looks like Trump will attempt to become like russia and China so that he stays president till he dies.

Basedbon those guesses mining gear must make profits via rapid price rise after you purchased the gear.

[God Of Thunder]

I assumed that it is already nearly impossible to mine Bitcoin at home in terms of cost and logistics. In many countries, the cost of electricity makes it so hard to make a profit but am not sure if one day BTC can be at $200K there can be a spike of interest for retail mining, not to mention the area of legality.

I think so. But there are some people who purely mine Bitcoin out of passion and just because they like it. I never tried Bitcoin mining because I cannot import an Asics here. Even though most of the old models are not profitable now, I wish I could mine a little and keep them for the future.

The cost of electricity is increasing worldwide, and I guess it will continue to increase as inflation rises, too. So, only the latest model of miners might be profitable at this moment, whether you keep it in your home or your farm.