Are you worried about the AVAX token unlocking event?

[MrSpasybo]

Avalanche's native token, AVAX is having a rather boring sideways price movement since the end of 2023 and has not been able to surpass the $50 price zone. To me, this is completely normal, because AVAX token price has increased from $9 in October 2023 to $50 in just 2 months, AVAX token price needs an adjustment to re-accumulate for strong and sustainable growth in the future, especially after BTC halving. However, many inexperienced investors do not have enough patience and they believe that the stagnation of AVAX token price comes from the AVAX token unlocking event scheduled for Thursday, February 22, 2024. This event will see approximately $365 million worth of AVAX tokens ~ 9.5 million AVAX = 2.6% of the current circulating supply, released from vesting and added to the circulating supply^[1].

I do not deny that large token unlocking events have often been associated with price declines. When the supply of a token increases rapidly, it can outpace investor demand, leading to a decrease in price^[2]. In addition, the situation can get worse if the team and investment funds want to take profits or dump the price to buy more tokens, and at the same time, investors in the market also want to sell and wait for the token price to go lower before buying back.

However, that is not always true, because the supply-demand relationship in the market is very unpredictable. Most visual example: AVAX token unlocking event on November 24, 2023 with 9.54M AVAX unlocked and we saw AVAX token price increase by 140%.

I don't know the reason for this AVAX token price increase because it goes against the logic presented above, it could be that when holders were worried and sold AVAX, Market makers bought in and pushed the AVAX token price up so that those who sold could not buy back AVAX at low prices 

Therefore, I am not worried about the negative impact of the upcoming AVAX token unlocking event. Avalanche's strong developments in technology as it gets ready to reach 100 tps, increase the number of users and acquire new key partners^[3] will continue to support the AVAX token price chart in the future.

Are you interested in the AVAX token unlocking event? Is its impact on the AVAX token positive or negative? Are you worried and selling AVAX tokens because of this event?
[1] Token Unlock: Avalanche
[2] Avalanche's AVAX Underperforms Ahead of $365M Token Unlock
[3] Avalanche welcomes bullrun: 100% adddress growth and key partnerships

[KryptoBull]

I do not deny that large token unlocking events have often been associated with price declines. When the supply of a token increases rapidly, it can outpace investor demand, leading to a decrease in price^[2]. In addition, the situation can get worse if the team and investment funds want to take profits or dump the price to buy more tokens, and at the same time, investors in the market also want to sell and wait for the token price to go lower before buying back.

However, that is not always true, because the supply-demand relationship in the market is very unpredictable. Most visual example: AVAX token unlocking event on November 24, 2023 with 9.54M AVAX unlocked and we saw AVAX token price increase by 140%.

The truth is that most token unlocking events will slow down the increase in token prices or push token prices down when supply suddenly increases while demand has not yet gained any additional momentum. In a positive market context, demand continues to increase steadily and can support token prices, otherwise the price will sink quite deeply.

AVAX had a quite successful unlock in November 2023 when the market was recovering strongly, the token price was able to continue to increase because the whales had no reason to sell at the bottom price zone. But this time it may not be so smooth, BTC is moving sideways and Altcoins are bleeding, not even AVAX can escape a red candle this week. I think this unlock could cause AVAX to stagnate at the current price range for quite a while before it can break out to create a new ATH.

I don't hold AVAX so I don't really care much, nor do I have it to sell, just continue to monitor for future investment plans. At least Avalanche is an ecosystem worth investing in during the uptrend 

[Trongduy]

Therefore, I am not worried about the negative impact of the upcoming AVAX token unlocking event. Avalanche's strong developments in technology as it gets ready to reach 100 tps, increase the number of users and acquire new key partners^[3] will continue to support the AVAX token price chart in the future.

Depending on the market situation, fluctuations are also different. Whales often have many ways to manipulate market psychology, we cannot guess what they want and what they will do. When unlocking the tokens, the majority of the holder community will be confused for fear of whales selling to take profits, especially when the token price has recovered and is quite high compared to the price the whales bought when the project opened for sale. I think profit-taking pressure from whales is the reason why AVAX price has been flat in the past few weeks.

In the long term, I think Avax has great potential, but in the short term it will still be negatively impacted by continuous token unlocking events.

[MrSpasybo]

Depending on the market situation, fluctuations are also different. Whales often have many ways to manipulate market psychology, we cannot guess what they want and what they will do. When unlocking the tokens, the majority of the holder community will be confused for fear of whales selling to take profits, especially when the token price has recovered and is quite high compared to the price the whales bought when the project opened for sale. I think profit-taking pressure from whales is the reason why AVAX price has been flat in the past few weeks.

In the long term, I think Avax has great potential, but in the short term it will still be negatively impacted by continuous token unlocking events.

I think at this time the market is still in a recovery trend before the halving, so we can be a little more optimistic about the impacts of related events such as token unlocking. For example, Solana had outage, but the SOL token price still remained above $100, even increased to $150, showing that market psychology is still very optimistic, no longer easily panicked or overly worried leading to sell-offs like during the decline or accumulation period.

Currently that AVAX token price has reached $50, we can rest assured that AVAX token is continuing to maintain its growth trend instead of being sold off due to the token unlock event.

[FOKA33]

Avalanche's native token, AVAX is having a rather boring sideways price movement since the end of 2023 and has not been able to surpass the $50 price zone. To me, this is completely normal, because AVAX token price has increased from $9 in October 2023 to $50 in just 2 months, AVAX token price needs an adjustment to re-accumulate for strong and sustainable growth in the future, especially after BTC halving. However, many inexperienced investors do not have enough patience and they believe that the stagnation of AVAX token price comes from the AVAX token unlocking event scheduled for Thursday, February 22, 2024. This event will see approximately $365 million worth of AVAX tokens ~ 9.5 million AVAX = 2.6% of the current circulating supply, released from vesting and added to the circulating supply^[1].

I do not deny that large token unlocking events have often been associated with price declines. When the supply of a token increases rapidly, it can outpace investor demand, leading to a decrease in price^[2]. In addition, the situation can get worse if the team and investment funds want to take profits or dump the price to buy more tokens, and at the same time, investors in the market also want to sell and wait for the token price to go lower before buying back.

However, that is not always true, because the supply-demand relationship in the market is very unpredictable. Most visual example: AVAX token unlocking event on November 24, 2023 with 9.54M AVAX unlocked and we saw AVAX token price increase by 140%.

I don't know the reason for this AVAX token price increase because it goes against the logic presented above, it could be that when holders were worried and sold AVAX, Market makers bought in and pushed the AVAX token price up so that those who sold could not buy back AVAX at low prices 

Therefore, I am not worried about the negative impact of the upcoming AVAX token unlocking event. Avalanche's strong developments in technology as it gets ready to reach 100 tps, increase the number of users and acquire new key partners^[3] will continue to support the AVAX token price chart in the future.

Are you interested in the AVAX token unlocking event? Is its impact on the AVAX token positive or negative? Are you worried and selling AVAX tokens because of this event?
[1] Token Unlock: Avalanche
[2] Avalanche's AVAX Underperforms Ahead of $365M Token Unlock
[3] Avalanche welcomes bullrun: 100% adddress growth and key partnerships

In my own view towards avalanche either positive and negative, on the positive side AVAX allow users the ability to vote on governance proposal and participation on staking and that of the negative side is the large supply of avalanche token that could lead to Inflation and devaluation of the token over time.

[MrSpasybo]

In my own view towards avalanche either positive and negative, on the positive side AVAX allow users the ability to vote on governance proposal and participation on staking and that of the negative side is the large supply of avalanche token that could lead to Inflation and devaluation of the token over time.

At the time of the AVAX token unlocking, 1 AVAX = $38. Currently, 1 AVAX > $50, instead of dropping to $25 as many people were worried about. So I think we can rest assured that this token unlock event did not have any negative impact on the AVAX token price. The same can be said for the downtime on Avalanche right after that. All of this could not stop the impressive recovery of the AVAX token price thanks to the technological advances in recent times.

Currently, I think we should focus on following and waiting for the new ATH of the AVAX token price, which could come after the BTC Halving 

[erus]

This event will see approximately $365 million worth of AVAX tokens ~ 9.5 million AVAX = 2.6% of the current circulating supply, released from vesting and added to the circulating supply

As far as I know, the name of the coin unlocking will give the effect of price changes, whether it can increase the price or decrease the price, but I have noticed so far when the token is unlocked, the token price decreases because the supply is increased and released to the market, it can make the token supply large and logically the price will definitely go down.
9.5 million Avalanche coins that will be unlocked and this will definitely give the effect of a fairly large price decrease. 9.5 million coins are not a small amount but a lot and enough to lower the price of the Avalanche coin.

[KryptoBull]

As far as I know, the name of the coin unlocking will give the effect of price changes, whether it can increase the price or decrease the price, but I have noticed so far when the token is unlocked, the token price decreases because the supply is increased and released to the market, it can make the token supply large and logically the price will definitely go down.
9.5 million Avalanche coins that will be unlocked and this will definitely give the effect of a fairly large price decrease. 9.5 million coins are not a small amount but a lot and enough to lower the price of the Avalanche coin.

As we've observed, the AVAX token unlock event didn't significantly impact AVAX's price on the market. This is likely because AVAX was already trading at a relatively low price, and investors were unwilling to sell at a loss. Instead, they preferred to hold onto their AVAX with the expectation of larger profits during an uptrend, once AVAX reaches new highs.

Token unlocks aren't as frightening as we might think based on supply and demand analysis, as the crypto market remains heavily manipulated and controlled by whales. While we can monitor token unlock schedules, it's difficult to leverage this information for effective investment strategies. If an investor believes in AVAX, they can continue to DCA AVAX while prices remain relatively low.

[erus]

As far as I know, the name of the coin unlocking will give the effect of price changes, whether it can increase the price or decrease the price, but I have noticed so far when the token is unlocked, the token price decreases because the supply is increased and released to the market, it can make the token supply large and logically the price will definitely go down.
9.5 million Avalanche coins that will be unlocked and this will definitely give the effect of a fairly large price decrease. 9.5 million coins are not a small amount but a lot and enough to lower the price of the Avalanche coin.

As we've observed, the AVAX token unlock event didn't significantly impact AVAX's price on the market. This is likely because AVAX was already trading at a relatively low price, and investors were unwilling to sell at a loss. Instead, they preferred to hold onto their AVAX with the expectation of larger profits during an uptrend, once AVAX reaches new highs.
~snip~

Is that true? I thought the effect of releasing 9.5 million AVAX coins would have a bad effect, but it turned out to be not too heavy on the AVAX market itself. You also said that AVAX is still at a low price and we also don't know when the AVAX coin will go up again. Do you know what plans AVAX will develop next so that the price can go up again? Does AVAX have a coin burning which is the opposite of coin unlocking?

[KryptoBull]

Is that true? I thought the effect of releasing 9.5 million AVAX coins would have a bad effect, but it turned out to be not too heavy on the AVAX market itself. You also said that AVAX is still at a low price and we also don't know when the AVAX coin will go up again. Do you know what plans AVAX will develop next so that the price can go up again? Does AVAX have a coin burning which is the opposite of coin unlocking?

You can track the AVAX price chart directly on TradingView and observe AVAX's resilience to the unlock event. The overall market positivity has likely prevented a significant sell-off, and AVAX price remains stable above 20 USD.

While AVAX is being burned through transaction fees within the platform, the quantity is negligible compared to the unlocked tokens. Therefore, I believe the unlock event has become largely unnoticed by AVAX investors.

[erus]

Is that true? I thought the effect of releasing 9.5 million AVAX coins would have a bad effect, but it turned out to be not too heavy on the AVAX market itself. You also said that AVAX is still at a low price and we also don't know when the AVAX coin will go up again. Do you know what plans AVAX will develop next so that the price can go up again? Does AVAX have a coin burning which is the opposite of coin unlocking?

You can track the AVAX price chart directly on TradingView and observe AVAX's resilience to the unlock event. The overall market positivity has likely prevented a significant sell-off, and AVAX price remains stable above 20 USD.

While AVAX is being burned through transaction fees within the platform, the quantity is negligible compared to the unlocked tokens. Therefore, I believe the unlock event has become largely unnoticed by AVAX investors.

That means $20 for 1 Avalanche is still the standard price and not too Dump price, don't you think?
And for the Avalanche transaction fee, how much is it for 1 transaction? Because you said the transaction fee on Avalanche is quite expensive.

One more thing, do you know what the future event of Avalanche is? I mean so that the price of Avalanche increases to more than $30.

[KryptoBull]

That means $20 for 1 Avalanche is still the standard price and not too Dump price, don't you think?
And for the Avalanche transaction fee, how much is it for 1 transaction? Because you said the transaction fee on Avalanche is quite expensive.

One more thing, do you know what the future event of Avalanche is? I mean so that the price of Avalanche increases to more than $30.

I think 20 USD is a solid support range for AVAX, and it's unlikely the weekly candle will close below that. It's just my opinion based on how well it's held that price range for months now.

Avax transaction fees are incredibly cheap, only about 3 cents. I don't think that's excessive for users.

I'm not going to predict AVAX price this season. I'm just hoping Avax sees more development and can push its price to a new ATH in 2025.

[MrSpasybo]

I think 20 USD is a solid support range for AVAX, and it's unlikely the weekly candle will close below that. It's just my opinion based on how well it's held that price range for months now.

Avax transaction fees are incredibly cheap, only about 3 cents. I don't think that's excessive for users.

I'm not going to predict AVAX price this season. I'm just hoping Avax sees more development and can push its price to a new ATH in 2025.

Currently, AVAX price is gradually recovering along with the broader market. The token unlock events are no longer a major concern for the community as they were during the crypto winter. I believe that the volatility of BTC price has a greater impact on AVAX price compared to monthly token unlock events.

Whales probably still hold a significant amount of AVAX tokens but they haven't sold yet, possibly because they still believe in Avalanche potential in this cycle. The recent upgrades to Avalanche are truly valuable and could facilitate the explosion of the entire ecosystem in the coming months. I think AVAX holders can continue to hold to their target.