Proposal for Pure BTC.D: exclude stablecoins

[MrSpasybo]

BTC.D has become a crucial indicator for many analysts in the crypto market. Simply put, a rise in BTC.D means that funds tend to flow into BTC rather than other tokens, and this is a confirming sign of the right choice in selecting BTC for a portfolio during a market recovery [1]. Formula:

BTC.D = BTC cap / Total Crypto Cap = BTC / (BTC + ALTS + stable) (1)

Using BTC.D for investment was quite effective in the bullrun 2017, however, at the present time, when the market cap of stablecoins has become too large ~ $167.5 [2], I doubt the effectiveness of formula (1). I believe we need a new formula for BTC.D to determine BTC's dominance over ALTS.

My suggestion is to remove stablecoins from (1) since the price of stablecoins is fixed as it is pegged to USD. The new formula is:

Pure BTC.D = BTC / (BTC + ALTS) = BTC / (Total - stable) (2)

I personally find it easier to use Pure BTC.D to assess market trends. Currently, Pure BTC.D has reached 61.8%, and I expect its uptrend to break and we will experience an altseason in the next few months.

Do you often use BTC.D when analyzing the market? What is your opinion on the Pure BTC.D suggestion? Would you use it?
[1] What Is Bitcoin Dominance and How Does It Affect the Crypto Market?
[2] Total Stablecoins Market Cap
2025.01.19 Update
To open Pure BTC.D (excluding major stablecoins & wrapped tokens in the market):

Code: [Select]

CRYPTOCAP:BTC/(TOTAL-(CRYPTOCAP:USDC+CRYPTOCAP:USDT+CRYPTOCAP:DAI+GLASSNODE:BUSD_MARKETCAP+DEFILLAMA:FXS_TVL+GLASSNODE:WBTC_MARKETCAP+WETH_MARKETCAPFF))*100

[KryptoBull]

I personally find it easier to use Pure BTC.D to assess market trends. Currently, Pure BTC.D has reached 61.8%, and I expect its uptrend to break and we will experience an altseason in the next few months.

Do you often use BTC.D when analyzing the market? What is your opinion on the Pure BTC.D suggestion? Would you use it?

I've previously referenced your opinion on this matter on Telegram and agree with it. Stablecoins have only emerged since 2017 with smallcap, insufficient to influence BTC.D. The old BTC.D formula could still be used to assess whether money was flowing into BTC or altcoins. However, with the current large market cap of stablecoins, where USDT and USDC are in the top market caps, the old BTC.D is affected and no longer accurate.

I also hope that the current 61.8% level is sufficient and Pure BTC.D soon reverses downward, with money flowing into altcoins and creating an altseason. Investors are waiting and seem impatient as many top coins have returned to their 2023 bottom prices.

[MrSpasybo]

I've previously referenced your opinion on this matter on Telegram and agree with it. Stablecoins have only emerged since 2017 with smallcap, insufficient to influence BTC.D. The old BTC.D formula could still be used to assess whether money was flowing into BTC or altcoins. However, with the current large market cap of stablecoins, where USDT and USDC are in the top market caps, the old BTC.D is affected and no longer accurate.

I also hope that the current 61.8% level is sufficient and Pure BTC.D soon reverses downward, with money flowing into altcoins and creating an altseason. Investors are waiting and seem impatient as many top coins have returned to their 2023 bottom prices.

Fibo 61.8% is merely the golden ratio that I've been anticipating and hoping for a reversal in capital flow within the market. It also coincides with the recent sudden panic event that has pushed many ALTs back to their bottom once more. Honestly, it's just for reference and doesn't come with much fundamental analysis or the use of historical data.

I've been using Pure BTC.D and consider it a personal tool in technical analysis as it's more reasonable for the purpose of identifying the trend of capital flow in the market. If anyone can make use of it, that's great, if not, it's still a piece of data for reference, verification, and comparison in the bullrun 2025.

[KryptoBull]

Fibo 61.8% is merely the golden ratio that I've been anticipating and hoping for a reversal in capital flow within the market. It also coincides with the recent sudden panic event that has pushed many ALTs back to their bottom once more. Honestly, it's just for reference and doesn't come with much fundamental analysis or the use of historical data.

I've been using Pure BTC.D and consider it a personal tool in technical analysis as it's more reasonable for the purpose of identifying the trend of capital flow in the market. If anyone can make use of it, that's great, if not, it's still a piece of data for reference, verification, and comparison in the bullrun 2025.

It's good that there's a foundation already. I don't dare to expect too much. As long as the market fluctuates as predicted, this new indicator for Pure BTC.D will become reasonable and widely accepted. I'm afraid that at that time, the whales will also abuse this Pure BTC.D to manipulate the market sentiment

Right now, the market still hasn't decided on a trend. We will have to continue waiting to see growth or decline to retest deeper ranges. I prefer the bullish scenario because we are about to enter the last month of Q3. Next month, we will see the FED cut interest rates for the first time, and the crypto market will recover and grow following this news.

[MrSpasybo]

It's good that there's a foundation already. I don't dare to expect too much. As long as the market fluctuates as predicted, this new indicator for Pure BTC.D will become reasonable and widely accepted. I'm afraid that at that time, the whales will also abuse this Pure BTC.D to manipulate the market sentiment

Right now, the market still hasn't decided on a trend. We will have to continue waiting to see growth or decline to retest deeper ranges. I prefer the bullish scenario because we are about to enter the last month of Q3. Next month, we will see the FED cut interest rates for the first time, and the crypto market will recover and grow following this news.

Well, Pure BTC.D is not at all popular and has never been mentioned by any KOLs on YouTube. They are still finding more complicated ways to analyze traditional BTC.D with various cases related to the stablecoin marketcap or USDT.D ^^

We have had a successful Q4 2024 and a new ATH above $100K for BTC. Interestingly, Pure BTC.D also shows a reversal signal, suggesting a possible shift in cash flow into ALTs. I hope that altseason will soon begin in Q1 with a strong price increase of ETH and XRP.

[ZAINmalik75]

I personally find it easier to use Pure BTC.D to assess market trends. Currently, Pure BTC.D has reached 61.8%, and I expect its uptrend to break and we will experience an altseason in the next few months.

Do you often use BTC.D when analyzing the market? What is your opinion on the Pure BTC.D suggestion? Would you use it?

Analyzing BTC.D must be our priority either we are trading or not because it gives us the idea of what are the current sentiments are in the market if it is increasing with time we can deduce that people are bullish on BTC and if it is not then people are bearish in any time frame.

You are a genius to take this factor into account because I did not consider the formula before and after learning it we must exclude stable currency too. This retest is good and I also believe in few months or weeks maybe the altseason will start.

[MrSpasybo]

Analyzing BTC.D must be our priority either we are trading or not because it gives us the idea of what are the current sentiments are in the market if it is increasing with time we can deduce that people are bullish on BTC and if it is not then people are bearish in any time frame.

You are a genius to take this factor into account because I did not consider the formula before and after learning it we must exclude stable currency too. This retest is good and I also believe in few months or weeks maybe the altseason will start.

Previously, BTC.D performed quite well because stablecoin cap was still small, however, when we saw USDT on the top cap, things changed significantly. Pure BTC.D is an indicator I proposed to easily identify whether the cash flow is prioritizing BTC or ALTs more.

If whales and most investors use the traditional BTC.D, it could have a reverse impact on their psychology and become a real market movement, so I'm not sure if the reversal signals on my Pure BTC.D are usable. I've previously introduced it to the Vietnamese crypto community but it didn't receive widespread acceptance, well, that's completely normal. I'm still trying to use Pure BTC.D to confirm its value for my investment journey ^^

[ZAINmalik75]

Previously, BTC.D performed quite well because stablecoin cap was still small, however, when we saw USDT on the top cap, things changed significantly. Pure BTC.D is an indicator I proposed to easily identify whether the cash flow is prioritizing BTC or ALTs more.

If whales and most investors use the traditional BTC.D, it could have a reverse impact on their psychology and become a real market movement, so I'm not sure if the reversal signals on my Pure BTC.D are usable. I've previously introduced it to the Vietnamese crypto community but it didn't receive widespread acceptance, well, that's completely normal. I'm still trying to use Pure BTC.D to confirm its value for my investment journey ^^

What do you mean by reverse impact like you think if this adopted by everyone the whales will change their method of speculating on this indicator if they are using it. It's a big if so I guess whales must have many other indicators but they don't usually day trade they buy the dip and wait for the top.

They are not making any moves right now instead the whale trackers are showing they are withdrawing funds from exchanges to unkown wallets which is good because they must have bought all those BTC and now storing them in safe places.

[MrSpasybo]

What do you mean by reverse impact like you think if this adopted by everyone the whales will change their method of speculating on this indicator if they are using it. It's a big if so I guess whales must have many other indicators but they don't usually day trade they buy the dip and wait for the top.

They are not making any moves right now instead the whale trackers are showing they are withdrawing funds from exchanges to unkown wallets which is good because they must have bought all those BTC and now storing them in safe places.

If everyone is focusing on traditional BTC.D, whales can use it to adjust their plans and manipulate investor sentiment through fake signals on the BTC.D chart. For example, a fake breakout signaling a reversal of the market cash flow trend can be created to deceive investors, causing them to sell BTC to accumulate ALTs too early and suffer losses.

We are observing that whales have accumulated a large amount of BTC. This could be the reason why they are no longer actively accumulating and keeping BTC prices low compared to investor expectations. I think this could lead to two scenarios: BTC price will increase sharply, leading to a market explosion, or BTC price will move sideways and give cash flow way to ALTs. In any case, ALTs will benefit and BTC.D will decrease. The worst-case scenario is that whales continue to want to accumulate more or they want to sell off BTC to exit the market right now, I don't think that's what they will do.

[Stompix]

I find every indicator that measures the relations between as a bit of a counterproductive model, because there are situations when the same action could trigger two different scenarios, also, since market cap in easily influenced by liquidity in a market, you can have alts spike with basically no considerable influx while BTC is simple hovering due to massive profit taking.

Anyhow, one thing, if we exclude stable coins from such analysis, the golden question is what do we do with coins like "wrapped Bitcoin"?

[MrSpasybo]

I find every indicator that measures the relations between as a bit of a counterproductive model, because there are situations when the same action could trigger two different scenarios, also, since market cap in easily influenced by liquidity in a market, you can have alts spike with basically no considerable influx while BTC is simple hovering due to massive profit taking.

Anyhow, one thing, if we exclude stable coins from such analysis, the golden question is what do we do with coins like "wrapped Bitcoin"?

Evaluate BTC.D is just one of the approaches to strengthen the opinion about market fluctuations, it does not guarantee accuracy, similar to technical indicators such as RSI and MACD. We make assumptions and build stories to explain the phenomena in the market.

Wrapped tokens are also a factor that I am interested in because they affect BTC.D. Their current marketcap is around $36B, which is quite a lot smaller than the $215B market cap of stablecoins. I will search for their marketcap on TradingView and add them to the formula to have a more accurate Pure BTC.D. Thank you very much, @Stompix!

• Top Wrapped Tokens by Market Capitalization

[ZAINmalik75]

We are observing that whales have accumulated a large amount of BTC. This could be the reason why they are no longer actively accumulating and keeping BTC prices low compared to investor expectations. I think this could lead to two scenarios: BTC price will increase sharply, leading to a market explosion, or BTC price will move sideways and give cash flow way to ALTs. In any case, ALTs will benefit and BTC.D will decrease. The worst-case scenario is that whales continue to want to accumulate more or they want to sell off BTC to exit the market right now, I don't think that's what they will do.

From the looks of the market I think your first scenario is most suitable here the price is increasing sharply which means whales are buying BTC so what is the plan now and I understood what your reversal point was.

I did not know how famous is this chart if this is only shared here by you then I don't think most of the whales are aware of it to change their mind to make a reversal change in the market because if the chart will become famous then they can benefit from it.

[Faisal2202]

BTC.D has become a crucial indicator for many analysts in the crypto market. Simply put, a rise in BTC.D means that funds tend to flow into BTC rather than other tokens, and this is a confirming sign of the right choice in selecting BTC for a portfolio during a market recovery [1]. Formula:
-cut-
I personally find it easier to use Pure BTC.D to assess market trends. Currently, Pure BTC.D has reached 61.8%, and I expect its uptrend to break and we will experience an altseason in the next few months.

This proposal is amazing I liked the idea What's the easiest way to setup this chart on our trading view? As you can't update it regularly so if you would allows us to know (not manually) it would be a great contribution, as using it and analyzing it can give us more ideas about it. Besides I love this proposal because I read in many articles that the stable currency is getting a lot of volume people have money nowadays and they want to invest it and some are giving their money away in future and margin markets hehe.

Well, that's another topic, this indicator can be beneficial for many, BTW what is your current analysis of yours on the basis of this chart If I am not wrong, you are posting trading-related and analysis related topics after a long time.

[MrSpasybo]

This proposal is amazing I liked the idea What's the easiest way to setup this chart on our trading view? As you can't update it regularly so if you would allows us to know (not manually) it would be a great contribution, as using it and analyzing it can give us more ideas about it. Besides I love this proposal because I read in many articles that the stable currency is getting a lot of volume people have money nowadays and they want to invest it and some are giving their money away in future and margin markets hehe.

Well, that's another topic, this indicator can be beneficial for many, BTW what is your current analysis of yours on the basis of this chart If I am not wrong, you are posting trading-related and analysis related topics after a long time.

Thank you ^^
To open Pure BTC.D (excluding major stablecoins & wrapped tokens in the market):

Code: [Select]

CRYPTOCAP:BTC/(TOTAL-(CRYPTOCAP:USDC+CRYPTOCAP:USDT+CRYPTOCAP:DAI+GLASSNODE:BUSD_MARKETCAP+DEFILLAMA:FXS_TVL+GLASSNODE:WBTC_MARKETCAP+WETH_MARKETCAPFF))*100
Stablecoins & wrapped tokens caps are very large now and affect how we calculate Dominance, so Pure BTC.D might be a slightly better indicator compared to traditional BTC.D, at least in terms of mathematics rather than market analysis.

You can follow my latest updates in the Pure BTC.D analysis:

Pure BTC.D reversed, altseason will soon begin!