How the COVID-19 Pandemic Will Propel Humanity 20 Years Ahead in Tech
If you’re familiar with medieval history, you’ll know that the plague epidemic eventually led to the liberalization of European politics and, ultimately, to the Renaissance. After the Black Death killed more than 20 million people — over a third of the European population at the time — labor became scarce and landlords were forced to pay higher wages while giving more power and rights to laborers. That set the stage for the political changes that recognized the value of an individual and his craft skills. This shift in social norms led to the Renaissance tradition of nobility sponsoring arts and sciences.
Despite the massive death toll, the Black Death essentially forced European nobility to evolve, giving more power to their subjects and setting civilization on a path to greater prosperity for all. Incidentally, we might be looking at the same outcome as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite all the pain and suffering that this crisis has caused, there may yet be a silver lining we can expect to see out of this ordeal that was forced upon the whole planet.
In the ordinary course of events, large, positive and impactful technological shifts happen every 15 to 20 years on average. They are driven not so much by the speed of technological evolution (considering tech’s breakneck speeds this century) but by generational changes.
The world’s first email was sent in 1969, yet it only became a widespread business tool by the mid-to-late-1990s. Douglas Engelbart’s first practical demo of the computer mouse in 1968 is now a legendary landmark in tech history, yet it took the usual 20 years to become mainstream.
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