In a Twitter exchange on Feb. 12, the popular analyst joined Dan Held, growth lead at U.S. exchange Kraken, calling the current BTC market a bull run like no other.
Held had previously explained his theory about the state of Bitcoin in 2021 — that price gains cannot be compared to past bull phases, and do not even match the end of 2017 when BTC/USD neared $20,000.Article:
Bitcoin 'supercycle' may emerge in 2021 as Fed balance sheet hits new record highI reread the article on February 12, 2021 after Bitcoin's price surpassed $50K. And I think we have grounds to believe in the Bitcoin supercycle, for a larger period of time, with BTC price consistently being maintained at a high level:
+ Halving 2020 reduces the block reward of BTC to 6.25 BTC/block, that is, compared to before, 6.25 * 24 * 6 = 900 BTC less per day. The scarcity has really become apparent after 6 months. The 2024 Halving will cause the new number of BTC to drop by 450 BTC/day, the change in scarcity is likely to be no longer large. So the 2020 Halving could be the last Halving to cause a massive bullrun;
+ The mature of crypto market: the driving force for the market comes from major financial institutions in the traditional economy with long-term investment objectives;
+ The concept of Bitcoin is simplified: "Bitcoin - Digital Gold", helping people to access Bitcoin more;
+ After many years, the governments did not ban Bitcoin, they just planned to enact the legal framework for Bitcoin.
I really expect this bullrun to last until the end of 2021, and then just a minor correction instead of the crypto winter. Do you think my expectations are too optimistic? And do you think crypto winter is essential for the crypto market?