First of all, I would like to explain my definition of crypto winter to you. For me, a crypto winter would mean a state where the entire market would slide below 50% of its current value for 5-10 months. That means the total market value would be less than 1 trillion or even more for a longer period of time.
What many have experienced here in 2018-2019. Those who have been in crypto for a long time will surely tell us about 2011 as the first crypto winter, when Bitcoin went down from $32 to $2. Or even in 2013-2014 when Bitcoin slipped from $1200 to $200. The last time we had a situation where the market or Bitcoin went down 10% and 2 days later again, but so far the market has recovered a bit. If, however, the market does not recover as quickly and the 5-10% is the usual rate for a longer period of time, then a spiral will prevail that will pull us all downwards.
There is currently no reason for it.
What reasons did we have back then? What were the triggers?
2011 was an irrational Bitcoin euphoria. This is currently not the case, but it could happen with the 100k because the number is simply so large for many new investors.
In 2014 it was Mt.Gox, the largest centralized exchange at the time, that was hacked. Or were the insider deals done, you don't really know. We have a lot of them today and at least 3 would have to be hacked at the same time for the trigger to take effect.
In 2018 it was the ICOs, referred to as shiny objects .
2020 we had Covid-19 crash.
That could be called a black swan, but I'll tell you more about that a little later.
The electricity failure that happened the other day can lead to a crash, no question, but a winter?
In my opinion that is unlikely, there will be panicked sales, but that would be more of a crash than winter.
Quantum computer improvements and hacks are also not relevant for me in the near future.
Cryptography is also evolving, and the hackers must first own the quantum computers, which is not easy either
What about Satoshi? If he decides at once the whole 2Mio. Bitcoin he owns to sell? Of course, this can lead to a chain reaction. Unlikely for me.
Stricter regulation can lead to such a thing, including an increase in taxes, especially on unrealized profits but on property.
These are the 2 things that could be heading towards winter for me. Because that is exactly what can lead to a sell-off, even with large investors, and consequently to a crypto winter.
For me, however, the greatest danger is the end of the pandemic. Suddenly everyone who has missed his vacation and has invested his money in crypto and has won 1000% will have his profit again, sell his crypto to finally have some joy again. I am one of them.
This is all just my own opinion, I would be very interested, what other reasons are there?
Is there anything else I could prepare for?
What did i forget?
I would be very grateful to you for your participation in this poll.