How Much Can Bitcoin Halving Drive Price Increase?A workshoprecent Swan Pacific Bitcoin festival was aptly titled “are halving cycles bullshit for prices?”. During the discussion, host and Bitcoin Layer founder Nik Bhatia asked Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel, Swan CIO Ralph Zagury, and Swan product manager Andy Edstrom to share their thoughts on whether the Bitcoin halving is real. Is it a bullish event or just another story that inexperienced investors buy into?
While the conference title may be off-putting to some, the discussion is of great interest to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investors. The commonly held belief among many in the space is that the Bitcoin supply halving is a bullish phenomenon that, when completed, will lead to almost parabolic price increases for BTC.
Ask any Bitcoin enthusiast what they’re most excited about in the coming year, and if they don’t mention the chances of spot Bitcoin ETF approval first, they’ll probably talk about the upcoming halving.
While previous performance provides some compelling evidence of what might happen during the next halving, it is not uncommon to question long-standing confirmations and price expectations for an asset. A highly volatile asset like Bitcoin is probably something every investor should do more often – especially considering the number of bearish events that have occurred in the past 2 years.
At the beginning of the discussion, host Nik Bhatia immediately asked “will halving be the main driving force behind Bitcoin price?”.
Thiel quickly responded:
“In this cycle, not, I think, liquidity.”
Zagury agreed, adding “flow is really what drives the market, so by definition the halving will have no impact on price.”
Interestingly, Edstrom takes a different view, suggesting:
“I think the halving is still bullish and we can debate how much of an impact it has, but nonetheless it is important for prices.”
Each panelist, including host Bhatia, seemed to agree that while the halving may have some ability to move markets, its influence appears to diminish over time. According to Bhatia:
“Halving affects supply. The influence becomes less and less over time and has no effect on demand. But from a psychological perspective, we can argue.”
Basically, speculation is the root of all investment activities. While Zagury and Thiel argue that investors have placed more hope than reality on the anticipated impact of the Bitcoin halving, Edstrom sees the event as a manifestation of a “psychological feedback loop moving towards demand.” .
“We think Bitcoin prices will be higher in the future and, more broadly, we are applying an investment lens when investing in Bitcoin.”
Another popular belief long held by many investors is the role of derivatives in Bitcoin price discovery. Bhatia asked whether derivatives play a bigger role than spot trading in influencing Bitcoin price action and Zagury said:
“The reality is that the data points we have on the halving are not enough to draw any conclusions. If you look at historical Bitcoin prices, we have a whole host of price data. When you try to find distribution patterns, how returns actually work, you’ll quickly see that there’s a lot of extrinsic correlation, meaning price depends on time and also past performance. ”.
According to Zagury, “one thing about Bitcoin is extremely curious and I think there is no other asset class like this out there. “Most of the time, Bitcoin is moving sideways, in terms of days it’s been flat or down.”
The time Bitcoin spends trading in a limited range or in a downtrend is what Zagury says “makes holding really difficult, because it means you’re going to have years of pain and suffering.” glory days. By definition, being a holder by allocating to the prices you see historically is extremely difficult.”
Returning to the original question about the role of derivatives in Bitcoin price discovery, Zagury replied:
“When we talk about derivatives, the first thing you will talk about is probability. It’s impossible to conclude what will actually happen to Bitcoin price, which is the first thing you conclude by looking at historical returns.
Coming back to the halving, the reality is that it is actually highly correlated, especially in times of low liquidity. A small move pushes the price up, the marginal sellers will switch to the short sellers and then the price will spike significantly. This explains why prices increased so quickly.”
Liquidity will be the focusAlthough the halving has lessened the impact on BTC price, each panelist expressed a positive long-term bullish view on its value.
With liquidity being the agreed future price catalyst for the crypto king, Zagury said:
“I am very optimistic. I think we’ll see that soon because liquidity has gone down and we see that these things are starting to happen. It won’t take long to see a big move.”
When asked when and how this all-important liquidity would return, Edstrom alluded to 10-year U.S. Treasuries rising above 5%, risking regional bank bankruptcies as seen seen six months ago and the losses many banks holding long-term government debt are signs that the US Federal Reserve may soon return to quantitative easing.
Source:
https://tradecoind2.com/how-much-can-bitcoin-halving-drive-price-increase/