Is “Sell in May” Still a Thing for Bitcoin...

[slapper]

Lately, I’ve been seeing people toss around “Sell in May” . But has anyone really looked at the numbers? BTC averaged +7.4% in May across 2013–2024, but the median return? Only ~1%. Three of the last four years were red. Now in 2025, ETF flows are split (IBIT +$2.4B, ARK/FBTC outflows), macro’s shaky (GDP -0.3%, unemployment ticking up), and yet BTC still rides a “Greed” wave

So… are we acting on data or just reflexes?
Are these moves about the market, or about what we think others will do?

Feels like most traders today are front-running narratives, not price

[zagreus]

More time is needed, that's all.

New ATH is underway, in my opinion, and we have all the time in the world to see it happen.

[Zed0X]

I almost forgot about that one I used to read that on twitter (now X). I have said it before and I think it's still true that BTC market has entered a new territory. Other than the four year cycle from the halving, it's probably okay to ignore that old narrative.

[snowpega]

I almost forgot about that one I used to read that on twitter (now X). I have said it before and I think it's still true that BTC market has entered a new territory. Other than the four year cycle from the halving, it's probably okay to ignore that old narrative.

So if I am not getting you wrong here in understanding, you are planning to enjoy a new ride of the Bitcoin towards a new all-time high, right? Because I also believe that things are different in the current time frame as compared to the old time. We have seen a lot of great development in the Bitcoin ecosystem; many countries are starting to show their interest in it, and many are now putting it under consideration to make it a major part of investment for their country.

Although the concept of ETF is old, but ETF was not approved that time for bitcoin. Other than that, the US has declared it a reserve for its country. This is just a touch about some changing in the environments of crypto space; there are a lot of them that can be discussed.

[Ambatman]

Despite many saying this cycle is same as others I believe there are some dissimilarities due to various factors like ETF, Trumps and the likes.
Normally in respect to previous cycle, we were not expected to close the first three months in red
I believe likewise the sell in May would be different this time and could be coined as Buy in May.
We are closer to something beautiful this month than we ever were in the past two months
Both chartwise and Economic wise.

[DaNNy001]

I almost forgot about that one I used to read that on twitter (now X). I have said it before and I think it's still true that BTC market has entered a new territory. Other than the four year cycle from the halving, it's probably okay to ignore that old narrative.

Well you are very certain that the narrative is old? But on a clearer note I don't see any changes to the trend of the four years circle because that trend is still keeping up although this year according to the past record is supposed to be bullish for Bitcoin of which I still believe and everyone true Bitcoiner still hold their ground on the price getting to new height sometime in the near future and there are also many speculation about the increase although Bitcoin volatility can be tired to just mere people words but atleast experts who are knowledgeable of the market still give positive rewards and some events upfront can lead to this massive increase that investor are holding on to.

[UNIVERSE]

More time is needed, that's all.
New ATH is underway, in my opinion, and we have all the time in the world to see it happen.

You mean we need to hold our Bitcoin longer time?  I agree that it seems to increase more, so we don't hurry to sell our Bitcoin in this month. We still have many months for bullrun season, it won't end very soon.

I am not sure with a new ATH but I think it is not impossible. If Bitcoin can cross $100k again, it is not too far with the current ATH. I think we must anticipate with few plans for the possibility of the new ATH.

[Zed0X]

It looks like some members are misunderstanding my comment about the 'old narrative'. I'm referring to ignoring the 'sell in May and go away' which was popularized in stocks. Yeah, I think that can be ignored. With how fast things are moving in crypto or how the market reacts, there seems to be no specific month/s that it will drop or rise.

[tabas]

These are reflexes and pulse of many that have thought it's still the same narrative as before. I have got friends who said the same thing but I didn't say a word on them. I always tell them, if they want to sell, sell in profits and not in losses. But if they have to sell for cutting loss, it's still fine. This month of May has just started and we have still a lot of months to watch out for this bull run, people need to decide if they're going to sell then they have to do it this period of the cycle. Because once this ends likely in the end of the year, they have to wait further again.

[rby]

Despite many saying this cycle is same as others I believe there are some dissimilarities due to various factors like ETF, Trumps and the likes.
Normally in respect to previous cycle, we were not expected to close the first three months in red
I believe likewise the sell in May would be different this time and could be coined as Buy in May.
We are closer to something beautiful this month than we ever were in the past two months
Both chartwise and Economic wise.

Instead of selling in May I think what we should have this season is "buy in May" and that's because of the factors you rightly listed in your first paragraph. The recent widespread investment into Bitcoin by public institutions and ETF is enough reason for us to know that this current cycle will be more bullish than every other cycle in the history of Bitcoin. In this month of May, I'll not be surprised if it ends with BTC price going above $100k

[Azharul]

More time is needed, that's all.
New ATH is underway, in my opinion, and we have all the time in the world to see it happen.

You mean we need to hold our Bitcoin longer time?  I agree that it seems to increase more, so we don't hurry to sell our Bitcoin in this month. We still have many months for bullrun season, it won't end very soon.

I am not sure with a new ATH but I think it is not impossible. If Bitcoin can cross $100k again, it is not too far with the current ATH. I think we must anticipate with few plans for the possibility of the new ATH.

I think that your comment is also very appropriate in this time. If we follow in cryptocurrency market in this time, we can see that bitcoin price reach up level $98660 right now. So if we could buy $90k then sell bitcoin in this time will be perfect moment for us. Because if we want to invest bitcoin in lower market and if we sell bull market, then we must be benefits from there. So i think that when we want to invest in any crypto, we should understand in cryptocurrency market properly.

[Cornpetitor]

It sure does feel like it. Most of my altcoin portfolio has been in steady decline for the past few days.

I would say it's probably correlated with some other events, but Bitcoin seems to be holding quite decently. Either way, my mantra is - if it's low, get more.   

[TomPluz]

This year 2025, many old narratives which are considered to be proven based on historical precedents are getting destroyed...and it is for good. Good for us Bitcoin holders, of course. I am not actually aware of the "Sell in May" kind of thing but then again if soon $150K price can come to Bitcoin maybe I will (just a fantasy, actually because I know it would not be easy for Bitcoin to get into that level). Right now, I am expecting a new ATH if this trend will continue for another two weeks and no lightning will strike the lucky streak down.

[densuj]

Lately, I’ve been seeing people toss around “Sell in May” . But has anyone really looked at the numbers? BTC averaged +7.4% in May across 2013–2024, but the median return? Only ~1%. Three of the last four years were red. Now in 2025, ETF flows are split (IBIT +$2.4B, ARK/FBTC outflows), macro’s shaky (GDP -0.3%, unemployment ticking up), and yet BTC still rides a “Greed” wave

So… are we acting on data or just reflexes?
Are these moves about the market, or about what we think others will do?

Feels like most traders today are front-running narratives, not price

The Sell in May narrative gets thrown around like gospel, but the data tells a messier story. Bitcoin’s May returns from 2013–2024 show a +7.4% average, which sounds nice, but the median’s a measly ~1%. That gap screams volatility big wins (like 2017 +64%) skew the average, while three of the last four Mays (2021–2024) bled red, some as deep as -35%. So, history’s not exactly shouting dump it. Yet, traders still lean into the adage, maybe because it’s a catchy reflex or they’re betting on others following the herd.
In 2025, the picture’s no clearer. ETF flows are a tug of war:
BlackRock’s IBIT pulled in $2.4B recently, but ARK’s ARKB and Fidelitys FBTC are seeing outflows, signaling mixed conviction.
Macro wobbly GDP’s down 0.3%, unemployments creeping up yet Bitcoin’s surfing a “Greed” wave per sentiment indices. This feels less about fundamentals and more about narrative chasing. Traders aren’t pricing BTC; they’re front running what they think others will do, amplified by social media echo chambers.

Are we acting on data? Nah. It’s game theory dressed as analysis moves based on vibes, not numbers. The market’s a psychological casino, and right now, it’s betting on momentum over math.

[Wiwo]

I almost forgot about that one I used to read that on twitter (now X). I have said it before and I think it's still true that BTC market has entered a new territory. Other than the four year cycle from the halving, it's probably okay to ignore that old narrative.

Well you are very certain that the narrative is old? But on a clearer note I don't see any changes to the trend of the four years circle because that trend is still keeping up although this year according to the past record is supposed to be bullish for Bitcoin of which I still believe and everyone true Bitcoiner still hold their ground on the price getting to new height sometime in the near future and there are also many speculation about the increase although Bitcoin volatility can be tired to just mere people words but atleast experts who are knowledgeable of the market still give positive rewards and some events upfront can lead to this massive increase that investor are holding on to.

The only changes in the trend between new and the last four years cycle is the current price of Bitcoin, although even that is expected, at the moment bitcoin trends have shifted towards targeting a new all time high price, right now the vest thing we can do is to act in such a way that we take advantage of whatever the cycle presents at each point in time, alot of times we may fine it hard to pick and analyze current market situations using it as a basis to establish a preper Bitcoin four years or cycle that we have data of to place our final conclusions on.