It's all about the rate cuts
- the fed keeps the rates, it's going to be a bloodbath
- 25 points cut we might get back to the upper sixty on the day of news
- 50 points, might trigger a bearish signal the economy is slowing down and that might again be bad
It seems that BTC is very dependent on rate cuts indeed. There's plenty of good news for BTC, there's interest, ETFs, bullish signs, but there's something holding the price back and that could be it. However, without too much analysis, the month of October and the rest of the year look promising for BTC if history repeats itself...
The Fed's decision will be one of the main factors, and the reason for that is that the interest rate is inversely related to liquidity, and the higher it is, the less liquidity and the more difficult it is to access loans, and thus less money for investment.
I am really wondering why the price movement and direction is now dependent on how the FED will be doing with the interest rate.
It's been on the side ways in the Q2 but in Q3 we are seeing the decline on the gradual rate so let's throw in all your speculations and how the market will end Q3?
Bearish or bullish?
The price of bitcoin is now at 56k just a little upside and this is good news because i thought that the price will go dipper than what we saw recently at 52k but since the price has started moving uptrend maybe we might see the price of bitcoin at 60k this month. The consolidation period is getting long.It's been on the side ways in the Q2 but in Q3 we are seeing the decline on the gradual rate so let's throw in all your speculations and how the market will end Q3?
Bearish or bullish?
I think we’ve experienced the bearish part of the market longer than the expected time period we all thought it was going to last, so at this point in the year, I will only say that the market should come to a bullish end of the year in this Q4. I am still optimistic of the market and not giving up that the bearish trend of the market will move till next year early, at the slightest possible time, anything can happen, so I think bitcoin can make it to the bullish trend this year. If it doesn’t, we move our hope till early next year until what we anticipate for is achieved.
It's been on the side ways in the Q2 but in Q3 we are seeing the decline on the gradual rate so let's throw in all your speculations and how the market will end Q3?The market will end up a bearish one this month, and then it will be bullish the whole 4th quarter.
Bearish or bullish?
Feel free to take wild shots, cause that's what the speculations are about. :D
+1
My advice to all is that, now that Bitcoin is still on a bearish month, I believe that it's a good time to buy Bitcoin and other altcoins still. :)
The real impact of Halving may start to appear at the end of October and until then the Fed's decisions will have a short-term impact, so I do not expect any change during Q3 and everything that happens will affect Q4, either the price will be between $50,000 and $70,000 or the price will be above $80,000.Yes we can expect something good in Q4, which may have a positive effect towards the end of October. Or hope to see something really good in November. Price is still below 60K, we can't expect anything good soon, it will take more time.
As anticipated, the ECB reduced its interest rates on Thursday afternoon during its September meeting.
New interest rates have been set at 3.65% for main refinancing operations, 3.90% for the marginal lending facility, and 3.50% for the deposit facility..."The Governing Council today decided to lower the deposit facility rate – the rate through which it steers the monetary policy stance – by 25 basis points.
I am really wondering why the price movement and direction is now dependent on how the FED will be doing with the interest rate...is it because this is the barometer of the US economy, that is if there will be no cuts it can mean there will some form of a recession and if there is one then retail and institutional investors will be flocking away from BTC?
Hope there can come a time when BTC will decouple from the things happening in USA but seems to me this is just a wish list as the USA remains to be the biggest market where Bitcoin is openly recognized asset especially with the approved ETFs they have. In other words, Bitcoin is going where the USA economy is headed...for now!
It seems that for the trend in Q3, more price changes often occur suddenly, so the price drops and up-trends are very visible. And even in Q3, the market conditions sometimes drop very much, even very much, especially in August. For September, in the first week it was still very weak, but this week, the market conditions have become increasingly stable. And it seems that this may run better and increase again in the future. Yes, because we are about to face Q4 which is usually in the last quarter, there will be a significant increase for Bitcoin followed by various other altcoins.It's like we have begin to see the significance of the last quarter of the year on bitcoin price because the price has increased to 60k some hours ago and it is still in that range. I think soon we will see some more pumps to 65k and above because the bull run is getting closer day by day and bitcoin price is expected go be above $100k when the bull run is at its peak. Keeping buying because next year will be the year to make excess profit from your bitcoin investment and it is the size of your bitcoin portfolio that will determine your profit.
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We can't expect much good this month but wouldn't be surprised if it slowly moves towards 70k.
Bitcoin's long-anticipated bull market is likely to happen after the US election in November.
~snip~
On the contrary, on September 17 and 18, at the FOMC meeting, it is expected that the first interest rate cut after 2020 will be officially announced. The only question is whether it will be a minimum of 0.25 points, or perhaps 0.50. This could have a positive impact on the US market, and thus on the price of BTC.
@Stompix, I read an article (https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-cut-rates-by-25-basis-points-sept-18-twice-more-2024-2024-09-10/) today in which it is speculated that after this cut, the FED could do the same thing twice more by the end of this year - of course, this speculation comes from some kind of survey of economists, 2/3 of whom have such an opinion.
It seems to me that three times would still be a bit too much, but do you think that such a move could be a response to what the ECB is doing on the same issue? If I remember correctly, when the US raised rates, the ECB hesitated for a long time with that move, and now the situation is reversed.
+1
So the total would be 25bps right now + 2 cuts, probably 25bps again?
Some people are speculating 50bps for now, but I think they will go for 25bps and see how it goes
Let's hope for a rally for BTC in this Q4 hehehe 8)
Obviously, we will have to wait 1-2 days to find out what their first move will be, but I think it is logical that they will first go with 0.25, and then do the same at least once more before the end of the year. If that move is at least somewhat the reason for a new bull run, maybe people will adore Jerome Powell much more than Donald Do Not Trust ;D
It seems to me that today people are already anticipating what the Fed will do tomorrow
It will probably be the safest, 25bps, I agree
It would be a good combo for the FED to lower the interest rate as you said, twice, plus a possible election of Donald Trump
Adding that to the conclusion of the MtGox and Genesis payments, BTC will have a clear path to Q4 8) 8) 8)
Hedge fund manager Anthony Scaramucci projected record highs for Bitcoin, fueled by a combination of interest-rate cuts and US regulatory clarity for crypto in the wake of November’s presidential election. “We are going to get pro-cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and stablecoin legislation in the first part of the next congressional term in the US,” the founder of SkyBridge Capital said in an interview. “At the same time, you’re intersecting with rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.”
Some are behaving just like that, others are still waiting for the official announcement, because the difference between 0.25 and 0.50 bp is significant in terms of how the market will behave. If you are interested in a little more about it, I suggest that you read the following article, I will only highlight the part related to Bitcoin.Quote from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-09-18/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day-americasHedge fund manager Anthony Scaramucci projected record highs for Bitcoin, fueled by a combination of interest-rate cuts and US regulatory clarity for crypto in the wake of November’s presidential election. “We are going to get pro-cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and stablecoin legislation in the first part of the next congressional term in the US,” the founder of SkyBridge Capital said in an interview. “At the same time, you’re intersecting with rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.”
Q4 definitely looks like there will be more chances to make some money and that is going to be a good thing to hold for. While I have no data or proof that it will go up, the only thing I turst is tga so far each ATH came after one year of halving which means that either Q1 or Q2 of 2025 shoukd be a big profit for us and the upside will not be overnight, so we should start some increase with Q4 of this year or at least that is the hope and we can make some money that way. It should be all greens in the near future and can do better for sure.Yeah, I also want to mention the opportunities in Q4 2024 because Q4 is usually a good period for financial markets, including crypto. The accumulation over the past six months has probably been enough and we're seeing a slight recovery in both BTC and ALTS. Q4 could make a difference with Uptober, Moonvember, and Pumpcember.
As for the results, the price of BTC has already reacted and currently reached $62 500, but it is still too early to say whether this is only temporary or it will have a long-term effect.
But now, it's different, we see a nice bullish movement this week and I think it's a sweet move.
I've always basing on history, but it seems like this time, it's different for Bitcoin and the whole market as well.But now, it's different, we see a nice bullish movement this week and I think it's a sweet move.
Because history has a habit of not repeating exactly when you're so sure of it.
Bitcoin is following the trends, the stock market is up on solid gains, everything is positive in the economy, inflation is down and rates are cut so this will be the best September, it will be pretty funny if it's October disappointing us all!
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/25/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Everywhere is just green!