Q3 2024 market trend

[sampoerna]

It seems that for the trend in Q3, more price changes often occur suddenly, so the price drops and up-trends are very visible. And even in Q3, the market conditions sometimes drop very much, even very much, especially in August. For September, in the first week it was still very weak, but this week, the market conditions have become increasingly stable. And it seems that this may run better and increase again in the future. Yes, because we are about to face Q4 which is usually in the last quarter, there will be a significant increase for Bitcoin followed by various other altcoins.

[Sim_card]

It seems that for the trend in Q3, more price changes often occur suddenly, so the price drops and up-trends are very visible. And even in Q3, the market conditions sometimes drop very much, even very much, especially in August. For September, in the first week it was still very weak, but this week, the market conditions have become increasingly stable. And it seems that this may run better and increase again in the future. Yes, because we are about to face Q4 which is usually in the last quarter, there will be a significant increase for Bitcoin followed by various other altcoins.

It's like we have begin to see the significance of the last quarter of the year on bitcoin price because the price has increased to 60k some hours ago and it is still in that range. I think soon we will see some more pumps to 65k and above because the bull run is getting closer day by day and bitcoin price is expected go be above $100k when the bull run is at its peak. Keeping buying because next year will be the year to make excess profit from your bitcoin investment and it is the size of your bitcoin portfolio that will determine your profit.

[Rubel007]

The US interest rate policy, SEC's negative attitude towards crypto and various other factors are keeping the market in a tight spot. We can't expect much good this month but wouldn't be surprised if it slowly moves towards 70k. Going into the end of the year, especially towards the end of October, we will be able to see a bullish sentiment in Bitcoin. Bitcoin's long-anticipated bull market is likely to happen after the US election in November. I am hopeful that the market condition will gradually improve.

[Lucius]

~snip~
We can't expect much good this month but wouldn't be surprised if it slowly moves towards 70k.

On the contrary, on September 17 and 18, at the FOMC meeting, it is expected that the first interest rate cut after 2020 will be officially announced. The only question is whether it will be a minimum of 0.25 points, or perhaps 0.50. This could have a positive impact on the US market, and thus on the price of BTC.

Bitcoin's long-anticipated bull market is likely to happen after the US election in November.
~snip~

What if the great crypto messiah doesn't win? I don't think that there is any significance for BTC in who will be the next US president, but a lot of people believe exactly the opposite and maybe that will be an aggravating circumstance for a big bull run.

[Stompix]

On the contrary, on September 17 and 18, at the FOMC meeting, it is expected that the first interest rate cut after 2020 will be officially announced. The only question is whether it will be a minimum of 0.25 points, or perhaps 0.50. This could have a positive impact on the US market, and thus on the price of BTC.

Probably a 0.25 and two months later a 0.25!
I've read a few polls and most are saying that a 0.50 would say the FED is behind the curve in inflation and would trigger too much of a shock so they will gradually do this to make it look like total control and allow capital movemtns without sudden spikes that might destabilize a few sectors.
0.5 would be quite hefty, they fear it would make loans to cheap quite fast and bring back not only inflation but piling debt.

Either way there is no scenario where cheap money won't move BTC price up!

[Lucius]

@Stompix, I read an article today in which it is speculated that after this cut, the FED could do the same thing twice more by the end of this year - of course, this speculation comes from some kind of survey of economists, 2/3 of whom have such an opinion.

It seems to me that three times would still be a bit too much, but do you think that such a move could be a response to what the ECB is doing on the same issue? If I remember correctly, when the US raised rates, the ECB hesitated for a long time with that move, and now the situation is reversed.

+1

[rdluffy]

@Stompix, I read an article today in which it is speculated that after this cut, the FED could do the same thing twice more by the end of this year - of course, this speculation comes from some kind of survey of economists, 2/3 of whom have such an opinion.

It seems to me that three times would still be a bit too much, but do you think that such a move could be a response to what the ECB is doing on the same issue? If I remember correctly, when the US raised rates, the ECB hesitated for a long time with that move, and now the situation is reversed.

+1

So the total would be 25bps right now + 2 cuts, probably 25bps again?
Some people are speculating 50bps for now, but I think they will go for 25bps and see how it goes

Let's hope for a rally for BTC in this Q4 hehehe 

[Lucius]

So the total would be 25bps right now + 2 cuts, probably 25bps again?
Some people are speculating 50bps for now, but I think they will go for 25bps and see how it goes

Let's hope for a rally for BTC in this Q4 hehehe 

Obviously, we will have to wait 1-2 days to find out what their first move will be, but I think it is logical that they will first go with 0.25, and then do the same at least once more before the end of the year. If that move is at least somewhat the reason for a new bull run, maybe people will adore Jerome Powell much more than Donald Do Not Trust

[rdluffy]

Obviously, we will have to wait 1-2 days to find out what their first move will be, but I think it is logical that they will first go with 0.25, and then do the same at least once more before the end of the year. If that move is at least somewhat the reason for a new bull run, maybe people will adore Jerome Powell much more than Donald Do Not Trust

It seems to me that today people are already anticipating what the Fed will do tomorrow
It will probably be the safest, 25bps, I agree

It would be a good combo for the FED to lower the interest rate as you said, twice, plus a possible election of Donald Trump
Adding that to the conclusion of the MtGox and Genesis payments, BTC will have a clear path to Q4 

[Captain Corporate]

Q4 definitely looks like there will be more chances to make some money and that is going to be a good thing to hold for. While I have no data or proof that it will go up, the only thing I turst is tga so far each ATH came after one year of halving which means that either Q1 or Q2 of 2025 shoukd be a big profit for us and the upside will not be overnight, so we should start some increase with Q4 of this year or at least that is the hope and we can make some money that way. It should be all greens in the near future and can do better for sure.

[Lucius]

It seems to me that today people are already anticipating what the Fed will do tomorrow
It will probably be the safest, 25bps, I agree

It would be a good combo for the FED to lower the interest rate as you said, twice, plus a possible election of Donald Trump
Adding that to the conclusion of the MtGox and Genesis payments, BTC will have a clear path to Q4 

Some are behaving just like that, others are still waiting for the official announcement, because the difference between 0.25 and 0.50 bp is significant in terms of how the market will behave. If you are interested in a little more about it, I suggest that you read the following article, I will only highlight the part related to Bitcoin.

Hedge fund manager Anthony Scaramucci projected record highs for Bitcoin, fueled by a combination of interest-rate cuts and US regulatory clarity for crypto in the wake of November’s presidential election. “We are going to get pro-cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and stablecoin legislation in the first part of the next congressional term in the US,” the founder of SkyBridge Capital said in an interview. “At the same time, you’re intersecting with rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.”

[rdluffy]

Some are behaving just like that, others are still waiting for the official announcement, because the difference between 0.25 and 0.50 bp is significant in terms of how the market will behave. If you are interested in a little more about it, I suggest that you read the following article, I will only highlight the part related to Bitcoin.

Hedge fund manager Anthony Scaramucci projected record highs for Bitcoin, fueled by a combination of interest-rate cuts and US regulatory clarity for crypto in the wake of November’s presidential election. “We are going to get pro-cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and stablecoin legislation in the first part of the next congressional term in the US,” the founder of SkyBridge Capital said in an interview. “At the same time, you’re intersecting with rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.”

Thanks Lucius, I've read the article, it's a good summary 

The news came out a few hours ago and the cut was really 50bps


Source

In a few weeks we'll be able to start feeling the results, and if the planets align in favor of BTC, there's everything to have a great rally hehehe

[Lucius]

@rdluffy, some expected such a move, but I honestly thought that they would be a little more moderate in their decision. It is obvious that they feel that they need to make money cheaper, as the ECB did with its two cuts of 0.25 each, so maybe in some way they want to catch up with other countries that have been cutting rates for some time, and investors go where the conditions are more favorable for them.

As for the results, the price of BTC has already reacted and currently reached $62 500, but it is still too early to say whether this is only temporary or it will have a long-term effect.

+1

[MrSpasybo]

Q4 definitely looks like there will be more chances to make some money and that is going to be a good thing to hold for. While I have no data or proof that it will go up, the only thing I turst is tga so far each ATH came after one year of halving which means that either Q1 or Q2 of 2025 shoukd be a big profit for us and the upside will not be overnight, so we should start some increase with Q4 of this year or at least that is the hope and we can make some money that way. It should be all greens in the near future and can do better for sure.

Yeah, I also want to mention the opportunities in Q4 2024 because Q4 is usually a good period for financial markets, including crypto. The accumulation over the past six months has probably been enough and we're seeing a slight recovery in both BTC and ALTS. Q4 could make a difference with Uptober, Moonvember, and Pumpcember.

Currently, I'm waiting for BTC to grow impressively and break above $65K strongly to confirm the break of the nearly 200-day downtrend. Conversely, if $65K remains too strong of a resistance, we might have to face negative scenarios for the entire market.

[Stompix]

As for the results, the price of BTC has already reacted and currently reached $62 500, but it is still too early to say whether this is only temporary or it will have a long-term effect.

This is the news movement, for the actual cash inflow that we need to either sustain the price or move it further we have to wait for the money to start moving and it's going to take some time, it's all about bond rates, how the stockmarket grows and if banks will be keen on loans from here.
2yo bonds are down from 4.9 to 3.6, it might sound like little but that's a lot of money parked that will start moving once it starts hitting 2%, and if the stock market jumps you will see even less interest in them.

We need at least two weeks of full trading to see a solid clue of where we're going but I will say it right now, down is not really an option and if that happens it's because something else that's pretty bad did too!