Altcoins Talks - Cryptocurrency Forum
Crypto Discussion Forum => Cryptocurrency Trading => Cryptocurrency Price Speculations => Topic started by: rdluffy on January 01, 2025, 10:23:27 PM
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I really enjoy following this chart and it often gives us clues as to what the next month will be like, or if the pattern is repeating itself
Here's how it looks with the year 2024 complete. Bitcoin almost finish December in the green
(https://i.ibb.co/KsF15bk/Capturar.png) (https://ibb.co/2MgbFWQ)
Source: Coinglass > https://www.coinglass.com/today
What do you think? Do you follow this chart?
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In February the average movement was +15% ... isn't it a coincidence, where at the end of January 2025, the position of president of the United States will be held by Trump officially ... we can see that lately Trump has support for cryptocurrency which has the potential to boost the community to get more profit ...
The best case scenario for early 2025 is, when Trump is inaugurated, he starts implementing some policies that make the cryptocurrency world shine brighter ... and that possibility continues until February ... let's see in the near future.
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The strangest thing is the reaction of December, which is usually very bullish and perhaps one of the few times we see a December close in red. Otherwise, we may not see many gains in January and February to see the real turnaround starting from March
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In February the average movement was +15% ... isn't it a coincidence, where at the end of January 2025, the position of president of the United States will be held by Trump officially ... we can see that lately Trump has support for cryptocurrency which has the potential to boost the community to get more profit ...
The best case scenario for early 2025 is, when Trump is inaugurated, he starts implementing some policies that make the cryptocurrency world shine brighter ... and that possibility continues until February ... let's see in the near future.
Well noticed
February only ended in devaluation 2 times, in 2014 and 2020
While January ended in the red half the time, 5 years in a row
I'm looking forward to seeing the results at the beginning of 2025, especially given the news we'll get from the Trump administration.
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I really enjoy following this chart and it often gives us clues as to what the next month will be like, or if the pattern is repeating itself
Here's how it looks with the year 2024 complete. Bitcoin almost finish December in the green
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What do you think? Do you follow this chart?
December almost ended up in a green, but instead, it ended up having a shooting star candle stick which often represents a bearish signal. Right now, we're on green still which is good to see, and I hope that the monthly candlestick last month will not translate into a trend reversal and will start the year with a green candle. :)
TBH, I'm trying to find a pattern in the picture that you shared, but I can't find one aside from the fact that, 2021 started the first 3 months with a green candle at the end of each month, and I believe it will be the same this time. I mean many are expecting this year to be a bullish year. I also want to see the effect of Trump being inaugurated on the 20th to the price of the whole market and not only the crypto market.
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December almost ended up in a green, but instead, it ended up having a shooting star candle stick which often represents a bearish signal. Right now, we're on green still which is good to see, and I hope that the monthly candlestick last month will not translate into a trend reversal and will start the year with a green candle. :)
TBH, I'm trying to find a pattern in the picture that you shared, but I can't find one aside from the fact that, 2021 started the first 3 months with a green candle at the end of each month, and I believe it will be the same this time. I mean many are expecting this year to be a bullish year. I also want to see the effect of Trump being inaugurated on the 20th to the price of the whole market and not only the crypto market.
Apart from this monthly chart, I'm seeing a lot of people, a lot, on the Discords I participate in, on X and on the forums, saying that they're going to take profits in April
I believe that now in January and until Trump's inauguration the market will stay like this, with a slight rise
Many project 120k for BTC in January
Everything pointed to green in December
There was little left to close in the green and follow the same pattern as 2015, 2016 and 2023
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Based on the chart of Bitcoin, from year 2013 to year 2024, the months with the lowest negative returns are the months of February and October. It only have 2 negative returns with that range of years. If we based it on the third halving of Bitcoin, we can see that after that year which is 2021, in the month of February, the price increases +36.78%. I don't really remember if that time was the altcoin season, but probably there are good news that can trigger the price of Bitcoin to go up that high. In my opinion, there is a high possibility that the month of February will be the alt season since it's not happening yet.
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Many project 120k for BTC in January
Everything pointed to green in December
There was little left to close in the green and follow the same pattern as 2015, 2016 and 2023
The optimism about January is due to Trump's rise, but I expect that the impact of Trump's election victory has already occurred, so we have to wait for Trump's decisions, which may not come until March or April, as there are many problems in the world and supporting Bitcoin will not be the first thing on Trump's list of priorities.
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Despite today's dip, we're currently still (very slightly) in green for this calendar month. Funny how things can change in the span of only a few days.
Historically speaking, January is not a very impressive month in terms of returns, with an average of +3.14% and a median of only +0.62%, but I wouldn't be putting too much weight on calendar months as predictors, as they don't correlate too well with the price actions.
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Historically speaking, January is not a very impressive month in terms of returns, with an average of +3.14% and a median of only +0.62%, but I wouldn't be putting too much weight on calendar months as predictors, as they don't correlate too well with the price actions.
I completely agree, if we do not see a correction this month then the possibility of seeing $150k levels will be very likely and therefore if this month ends positively then it will be good news on the ATH level and the bottom which will be above $60k.
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Historically speaking, January is not a very impressive month in terms of returns, with an average of +3.14% and a median of only +0.62%, but I wouldn't be putting too much weight on calendar months as predictors, as they don't correlate too well with the price actions.
I completely agree, if we do not see a correction this month then the possibility of seeing $150k levels will be very likely and therefore if this month ends positively then it will be good news on the ATH level and the bottom which will be above $60k.
There are some factors which may likely determines the marketing and historically it may not reacts same way as it regularly react. looking too well if you see the way things are going you will see that this year might be different due to Trump emerging as the winner and has given a positive moves to bitcoin and within the weeks of swearing-in we might witness serious price action, which might likely boost the price to above the level of 108k to at least 200k and before this year ends we might see 250k-300k.
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I really enjoy following this chart and it often gives us clues as to what the next month will be like, or if the pattern is repeating itself
Here's how it looks with the year 2024 complete. Bitcoin almost finish December in the green
(https://i.ibb.co/KsF15bk/Capturar.png) (https://ibb.co/2MgbFWQ)
Source: Coinglass > https://www.coinglass.com/today
What do you think? Do you follow this chart?
Monthly chart showing positive signal for February 2025. Last year i mean February 2025 Bitcoin price increased 43% i think it is huge. Most of the years February Bitcoin price increased. In January Bitcoin price positive or negative in February bitcoin price positive we are seeing in the chart. From 2013 to 2024 only two times Bitcoin price were negative which was 2014 and 2020. But another every year in February bitcoin price shows positive in chart.
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within the weeks of swearing-in we might witness serious price action, which might likely boost the price to above the level of 108k to at least 200k and before this year ends we might see 250k-300k.
Don't be so optimistic, Trump's impact has already happened and the impact of Trump's decisions remains. Don't forget that we were at $15,000 levels a few months ago and remained for a long time below $60,000 levels.
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It's curious to see how the sentiment is changing faster and faster
Bitcoin now worth around 93.5k USD and many already talking about the bear market, and the ATH just happened, just 24 days ago hehehe
Those who have been here longer know how it works, but it is intensifying, and in the two bull runs I witnessed, volatility was high
You have to be careful not to fall into FUD and change your plans because of a temporary feeling
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within the weeks of swearing-in we might witness serious price action, which might likely boost the price to above the level of 108k to at least 200k and before this year ends we might see 250k-300k.
Don't be so optimistic, Trump's impact has already happened and the impact of Trump's decisions remains. Don't forget that we were at $15,000 levels a few months ago and remained for a long time below $60,000 levels.
We can't conclude what the results would be but I believe that the market will be positive on before that particular day, but just as you said we don't need to give ourselves higher hope towards the market as anything is possible. We could see more dip because is even this current level were the market is now is a result of Los Angeles wildfire, lot of people have been affected and properties also livestock are being evacuated. All this can affect the market and has been on a specific range since then till now.
+1 karma for you
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I do not see any similarities in the chart you provided, but the cycle repeats because Bitcoin was not as well-known in the past as it is now, and the date for block halving is not fixed; see the historical block halving date.
The first block halving is November 28, 2012 and the 2nd is July 9, 2016 and the 3rd one is May 11, 2020 and the 4th one is April 20, 2024.
So we could not see similarities in months because the block halving date changes, but after each cycle, you should notice similarities in price action.
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I do not see any similarities in the chart you provided, but the cycle repeats because Bitcoin was not as well-known in the past as it is now, and the date for block halving is not fixed; see the historical block halving date.
The first block halving is November 28, 2012 and the 2nd is July 9, 2016 and the 3rd one is May 11, 2020 and the 4th one is April 20, 2024.
So we could not see similarities in months because the block halving date changes, but after each cycle, you should notice similarities in price action.
I agree that there are more similarities between different 4-year cycles than there is for calendar months, but I wouldn't discard the monthly statistics completely. i.e. October and November stand out in terms of average profitability, it could be due just to a chance, or maybe there are some reasons behind it. It could even be a self-fulfilling prophecy, when a large enough group of investors expect those months to be profitable because they (almost) always have been and they act accordingly driving the price up.
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I agree that there are more similarities between different 4-year cycles than there is for calendar months, but I wouldn't discard the monthly statistics completely. i.e. October and November stand out in terms of average profitability, it could be due just to a chance, or maybe there are some reasons behind it. It could even be a self-fulfilling prophecy, when a large enough group of investors expect those months to be profitable because they (almost) always have been and they act accordingly driving the price up.
Usually always have similarities for bitcoin price between difference four years cycle but during bitcoin have hit above $100k looks less opportunity get the same cycle every four years. But the trend looks be similarity at the early year for every four cycle year with uptrend or downtrend moment.
For this month still not looking promising for bitcoin price but have important moment at the middle week will bitcoin get good chart for this month or not?
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Usually always have similarities for bitcoin price between difference four years cycle but during bitcoin have hit above $100k looks less opportunity get the same cycle every four years. But the trend looks be similarity at the early year for every four cycle year with uptrend or downtrend moment.
For the current cycle, it has been a bit different because Bitcoin can hit a new ATH before its halving. Usually, Bitcoin will hit its ATH few months after its halving. Yep, it successfully crossed $100k in the first year of bullrun season. It is quite surprising that Bitcoin even could be above $108k. Anyway, not sure that we will have the similarity of the Bitcoin trends again in the early of this year. Just wait for till the end of this month!
For this month still not looking promising for bitcoin price but have important moment at the middle week will bitcoin get good chart for this month or not?
Why it doesn't look promising? Don't you know we will have Trump's inauguration? People believe it will trigger Bitcoin price to skyrocket. It is because people becomes very optimistic with Bitcoin future when US will have a president who supports Bitcoin/crypto industry.
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I really enjoy following this chart and it often gives us clues as to what the next month will be like, or if the pattern is repeating itself
Here's how it looks with the year 2024 complete. Bitcoin almost finish December in the green
(https://i.ibb.co/KsF15bk/Capturar.png) (https://ibb.co/2MgbFWQ)
Source: Coinglass > https://www.coinglass.com/today
What do you think? Do you follow this chart?
This chart will be very helpful for us. Because we know that about bitcoin position in cryptocurrency market. So really I am also enjoy your prefer chart. We also saw 2025 January indicate green signal in crypto currency market. But if we follow in December of 2024 we can see that it was indicate red signal. I think that gradually it's position will be develop. Because we know that Donald trump support will be included in this crypto. So I think that bitcoin price will be increase $150k last time of this year.
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I do not see any similarities in the chart you provided, but the cycle repeats because Bitcoin was not as well-known in the past as it is now, and the date for block halving is not fixed; see the historical block halving date.
The first block halving is November 28, 2012 and the 2nd is July 9, 2016 and the 3rd one is May 11, 2020 and the 4th one is April 20, 2024.
So we could not see similarities in months because the block halving date changes, but after each cycle, you should notice similarities in price action.
Yes you got exact point. We know every four years Bitcoin halving happened and we saw month being change every halving But Price increasing Label near about same. We saw when Bitcoin halving happening then Bitcoin price increasing.
Last Bitcoin halving happened 20 April 2024 and then Bitcoin price huge increased. I think in future Bitcoin halving that's kinds of effects will happen. And gradually Bitcoin's price will increase there has no doubt.
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After almost making it in December, BTC closed in the green once again, up 9.29% in January
(https://i.ibb.co/gMKmzrJ1/Capturarbt-cbtc.png) (https://ibb.co/Lz7Yn01w)
Source: https://www.coinglass.com/today
Historically, February has been a great month for cryptos. What do you think?
Will it close up in green again?
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After almost making it in December, BTC closed in the green once again, up 9.29% in January
(https://i.ibb.co/gMKmzrJ1/Capturarbt-cbtc.png) (https://ibb.co/Lz7Yn01w)
Source: https://www.coinglass.com/today
Historically, February has been a great month for cryptos. What do you think?
Will it close up in green again?
Base on my analysis on the Bitcoin's chart, it's bearish in the lower tf. We can see the market structure is bearish because it was making lower lows and lower highs and the impulsive candles was the red candle. If there's no news that can trigger the price, probably it will close with a red. However, in the higher time we are still bullish, if it goes back in $70k in the future, I still bullish in it as long as the price will not go further. So what's happening in the ltf is probably just a retracement in the htf.
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Historically, February has been a great month for cryptos. What do you think?
Will it close up in green again?
Surely expecting green market again and again, during 2025 and this bullish season.
It's just that the current market conditions started with red market, yes, indeed, even the decline was quite significant, not only happened to Bitcoin which experienced a decline of more than -3.7% in a week. and also altcoins which on average also fell drastically in the last week, even SOL, more than -16%.
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The first block halving is November 28, 2012 and the 2nd is July 9, 2016 and the 3rd one is May 11, 2020 and the 4th one is April 20, 2024.
So we could not see similarities in months because the block halving date changes, but after each cycle, you should notice similarities in price action.
the only similarity between the dates or the cycles is that the cycle turns over every 4 years there really was no clear reason why satoshi decided on 4 years a lot of people believe it is economically driven because 4 years shows up in a lot of economic theories and concepts
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Historically, February has been a great month for cryptos. What do you think?
Will it close up in green again?
If we will just base it on the price movement of Bitcoin during the past decade, we can say that there's a high chance that February will be a green month for Bitcoin... only for Bitcoin, and not for Ethereum.
While Bitcoin ended up in a 9% increase month to date, Ethereum on the other hand went down 7% which for me makes me think WHY? Anyway, Q1 of 2021 (bull run year) has been bullish for Bitcoin, so let's see if it will follow the same price trend. I believe that it will that's why I'm still holding my Bitcoins currently.
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If this cycle will indeed be the same as the previous one, the Increase will occur soon and February and March are still in bullish mode, the Increase will occur and during 2021 after the ATH the price of Bitcoin has always increased at the beginning of this month.
It is only necessary to wait and see how this correction will stop and immediately change the trend of the crypto market.
(https://www.talkimg.com/images/2025/02/06/efYKI.png)
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If this cycle will indeed be the same as the previous one, the Increase will occur soon and February and March are still in bullish mode, the Increase will occur and during 2021 after the ATH the price of Bitcoin has always increased at the beginning of this month.
It is only necessary to wait and see how this correction will stop and immediately change the trend of the crypto market.
I think it won't be so much different from the previous cycle. Since we are in February 2025, we can compare it with February 2021/2017/2013. If we look at the trend in those years, February should be the green market for Bitcoin. I'm not sure with March but it should be a positive market trend in February. However, there is always a chance of the change in the market trend. But I personally don't expect too much change on the trends because it can raise doubts among the holders. By the way, it is time to wait and see now, we don't need to panic!!!
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I think it won't be so much different from the previous cycle. Since we are in February 2025, we can compare it with February 2021/2017/2013. If we look at the trend in those years, February should be the green market for Bitcoin. I'm not sure with March but it should be a positive market trend in February. However, there is always a chance of the change in the market trend. But I personally don't expect too much change on the trends because it can raise doubts among the holders. By the way, it is time to wait and see now, we don't need to panic!!!
The problem is that calendar months are a very weak indicators of anything, there isn't any really solid pattern there. I'm not saying it's completely useless but probably a much better thing to look at is the time since halving, without focussing on which calendar month that was.
But yeah, let's hope for February to be green.
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I think it won't be so much different from the previous cycle. Since we are in February 2025, we can compare it with February 2021/2017/2013. If we look at the trend in those years, February should be the green market for Bitcoin. I'm not sure with March but it should be a positive market trend in February. However, there is always a chance of the change in the market trend. But I personally don't expect too much change on the trends because it can raise doubts among the holders. By the way, it is time to wait and see now, we don't need to panic!!!
Yes, there should not be much difference from previous years,
but maybe some slight differences will occur with the current state of the market which is still quite confusing.
I hope March can be a good start to start doing real bullishness.
The year 2025 hopes to be the year that makes Bitcoin reach its new history.
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The problem is that calendar months are a very weak indicators of anything, there isn't any really solid pattern there. I'm not saying it's completely useless but probably a much better thing to look at is the time since halving, without focussing on which calendar month that was.
But yeah, let's hope for February to be green.
Even if you don't trust this chart, some ideas can be drawn from Bitcoin's monthly chart
Some defend the theory of Bitcoin cycles, according to halving, and you can compare the months of this cycle to find some pattern
Just as some months may reflect better investment periods according to tax payments, payment releases, etc., especially from important countries such as the United States
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Even if you don't trust this chart, some ideas can be drawn from Bitcoin's monthly chart
Some defend the theory of Bitcoin cycles, according to halving, and you can compare the months of this cycle to find some pattern
Just as some months may reflect better investment periods according to tax payments, payment releases, etc., especially from important countries such as the United States
Yeah, that's why I wouldn't completely discard it, but I wouldn't be putting too much weight on it either.
If you look at the median values, apart from maybe October, all values are rather modest and do not show any massive swings.
It could also give a bit distorted look, e.g. a +0.01% gain would make a month green, while -0.01% would make it red, despite the result being essentially the same with a very negligible difference. But visually it might look like there's a trend for certain months.