Altcoins Talks - Cryptocurrency Forum
Crypto Discussion Forum => Cryptocurrency Trading => Cryptocurrency Price Speculations => Topic started by: pawel7777 on March 21, 2025, 11:29:31 PM
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(https://www.talkimg.com/images/2025/03/21/lUlGd.png)
There are many technical analysts out there predicting growth till the end of the year or even going into early 2026. That's justified by the timing of the previous cycle's peak from the halving date (halvings marked with yellow vertical lines). By that theory, we should still have ~9 months left of the bull market.
But why should we assume that halving dates are so significant? If, instead, we start measuring from the points the price started to climb up, it looks like the current cycle is already longer than the 2021 one.
So what are the arguments justifying the significance of the halvings dates, and why should we discard the price action related to the approval of ETFs?
This is an honest question and not a prediction.
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I've read some 'objective' market observers/traders and they also claim that we're like in a new territory after we got the legal tender, the approved ETFs, and now the Government reserves. Still, they respect the halving and how it affects the mentality of the market just like in the past. We can't ignore how there will be less of 'new supplies' to meet the new demand.
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I've read some 'objective' market observers/traders and they also claim that we're like in a new territory after we got the legal tender, the approved ETFs, and now the Government reserves. Still, they respect the halving and how it affects the mentality of the market just like in the past. We can't ignore how there will be less of 'new supplies' to meet the new demand.
It's also possible we could have a self-fulfilling prophecy scenario: if enough investors believe the bull market will continue till the end of the year, then they might make it happen.
But as of now, it doesn't look like the retail investors are rushing to buy in, the market has been stagnating for a while now, and we haven't seen the expected action unless we're going to repeat the double peak we have seen last time.
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Not a great day today, many were hoping for some long-awaited breakout, but we're still stuck at mid-$80k and, with 3 days to go, we could have a second red month in a row, so not necessarily something one would expect to see in the bull market:
(https://www.talkimg.com/images/2025/03/28/lECHm.png)
I don't think this is a reason for panic, it could still be just a longer consolidation phase, but the state of the global markets and expectations of recession are not helping.
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Not a great day today, many were hoping for some long-awaited breakout, but we're still stuck at mid-$80k and, with 3 days to go, we could have a second red month in a row, so not necessarily something one would expect to see in the bull market:
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I don't think this is a reason for panic, it could still be just a longer consolidation phase, but the state of the global markets and expectations of recession are not helping.
Just to say something on what you said that there's no reason to panic, I'll add some facts as well.
During the 2021 bull run, the market consolidated for 3 months (April - June) before it went up and continued the rally. If you're a firm believer of the 4-year cycle, you will believe that we are still in a bull market and if you believe that what happened in 2021 will happen this time as well, we expect that the market will start to go up by the start of May (that if it follows the 2021 bull run). Of course, it isn't the same month because that will not happen, but what I'm trying to say is that, let's wait for at least 2 months still.
If Bitcoin will end up in red candle during the months of April and May or even in June, I guess that's time for us to "Brace for Impact" because... because things aren't going the way we expected to be. :D
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During the 2021 bull run, the market consolidated for 3 months (April - June) before it went up and continued the rally. If you're a firm believer of the 4-year cycle, you will believe that we are still in a bull market and if you believe that what happened in 2021 will happen this time as well, we expect that the market will start to go up by the start of May (that if it follows the 2021 bull run). Of course, it isn't the same month because that will not happen, but what I'm trying to say is that, let's wait for at least 2 months still.
If Bitcoin will end up in red candle during the months of April and May or even in June, I guess that's time for us to "Brace for Impact" because... because things aren't going the way we expected to be. :D
Not quite. The consolidation phase is defined as price moving in a relatively narrow range and precedes a breakout. The period you're referring was not really a consolidation. In mid-April 2021, we had the first top, then followed by ~50% drop, and the price started climbing back up in mid-July.
It's one thing to believe in 4-year cycle and the other to believe each cycle will play out the same as the previous one.
We already had a new ATH around the having time, so that part is already fulfilled. But believing that the price action will be a copy of the 2021 has no ground. Just like the 2021 was not a copy of the 2017 cycle.
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During the 2021 bull run, the market consolidated for 3 months (April - June) before it went up and continued the rally. If you're a firm believer of the 4-year cycle, you will believe that we are still in a bull market and if you believe that what happened in 2021 will happen this time as well, we expect that the market will start to go up by the start of May (that if it follows the 2021 bull run). Of course, it isn't the same month because that will not happen, but what I'm trying to say is that, let's wait for at least 2 months still.
If Bitcoin will end up in red candle during the months of April and May or even in June, I guess that's time for us to "Brace for Impact" because... because things aren't going the way we expected to be. :D
Not quite. The consolidation phase is defined as price moving in a relatively narrow range and precedes a breakout. The period you're referring was not really a consolidation. In mid-April 2021, we had the first top, then followed by ~50% drop, and the price started climbing back up in mid-July.
It's one thing to believe in 4-year cycle and the other to believe each cycle will play out the same as the previous one.
We already had a new ATH around the having time, so that part is already fulfilled. But believing that the price action will be a copy of the 2021 has no ground. Just like the 2021 was not a copy of the 2017 cycle.
I still believe in the 4 year cycle of Bitcoin. But I do consider that there are a few changes in the current cycle compared to the past, especially when we saw in the current cycle that Bitcoin made a new ATH before the halving. It is because of people anticipating what will happen in the upcoming halving. The 4 year cycle has not been completed yet, like what happened in the previous cycles there was an alt season, that's what I'm waiting for. The price has not yet reached the invalidation area. Because of that, I believe the bull run will continue and the alt season will happen in this cycle.
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I still believe in the 4 year cycle of Bitcoin. But I do consider that there are a few changes in the current cycle compared to the past, especially when we saw in the current cycle that Bitcoin made a new ATH before the halving. It is because of people anticipating what will happen in the upcoming halving. The 4 year cycle has not been completed yet, like what happened in the previous cycles there was an alt season, that's what I'm waiting for. The price has not yet reached the invalidation area. Because of that, I believe the bull run will continue and the alt season will happen in this cycle.
Most of us still believe that the bull run will happen but at same time, most of us don’t see anything yet to invalidate the bull run from happening and also have anything by the market that the bull run will still take effect despite the consolidation that has been happening over a long period of time. Many changes happened in this cycle that was not experienced in the last cycle or some of them happen even before the due time it was anticipated to have happened. Then, we saw big whale investors showing interest in bitcoin and then the political gurus of the world also showing interest and have changed and affected the market also. The bull run is not over yet until it’s over.
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I am thinking we do a double top.
The 2025 Trump actions are much like the 2021 China move to kick out miners.
So here's hoping to see 115 or 120k this fall.
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I am thinking we do a double top.
The 2025 Trump actions are much like the 2021 China move to kick out miners.
So here's hoping to see 115 or 120k this fall.
I'm seeing some people confident that it will repeat 2021 and the double top
I confess it would be great
Talking to a friend about predictions some time ago (only prediction) I said that I expected BTC to reach 120k in this cycle and that would be great
He called me a pessimist for not believing in at least 150k ;D
120k would be very good
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The repeating of the double-top scenario would likely require either:
1 - Bitcoin decoupling from the stock market and starting becoming more lige gold, or
2 - the ongoing tariff wars turning out to be just a temporary thing that is about to come to an end soon with everything coming back to the normal.
I don't believe any of the above is realistic. The recession has been talked about even before Trump winning the election and Bitcoin simply won't pump during economically unstable times.
I'll be happy to be proven wrong though.
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The repeating of the double-top scenario would likely require either:
1 - Bitcoin decoupling from the stock market and starting becoming more lige gold, or
2 - the ongoing tariff wars turning out to be just a temporary thing that is about to come to an end soon with everything coming back to the normal.
I don't believe any of the above is realistic. The recession has been talked about even before Trump winning the election and Bitcoin simply won't pump during economically unstable times.
I'll be happy to be proven wrong though.
well part of btc has decoupled from the market. large commercial miners just grow the hash which has no link to the market.
https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator
Latest Block: 892460 (30 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 102.0436% (1389 / 1361.18 expected, 27.82 ahead)
Previous Difficulty: 113757508810854
Current Difficulty: 121507793131898.1
Next Difficulty: between 123750837789374 and 123995956793755
Next Difficulty Change: between +1.8460% and +2.0477%
Previous Retarget: April 5, 2025 at 9:49 AM (+6.8130%)
Next Retarget (earliest): Saturday at 3:06 AM (in 4d 6h 24m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest): Saturday at 3:45 AM (in 4d 7h 3m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 13d 17h 16m 15s and 13d 17h 55m 18s
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/difficulty-chart
the difficulty matches gold very very very closely
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I am scared of this because I think it will continue going down. If it does continue, I hope it can recover. If it doesn't, then it's an opportunity to buy more until the next cycle. Everything is just a cycle, and we need to be aware of what could happen.
Preparation is better, IMO. Knowing that it has a different market than the stock market now just shows how investors are doing with crypto now.
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- I think it's not yet, because right now the bitcoin price chart is still in consolidation or sideways at the moment, in fact, where the resistance is at 88k$ and support is 74k$, so right now the bitcoin price is playing up side down between these two prices.
So once it breaks 88k$ and reaches 90k$, this is likely to be the beginning of bitcoin's rally in the crypto market, but right now we are in the momentum of a rolling coaster, just like what some of our friends here are saying.
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- I think it's not yet, because right now the bitcoin price chart is still in consolidation or sideways at the moment, in fact, where the resistance is at 88k$ and support is 74k$, so right now the bitcoin price is playing up side down between these two prices.
So once it breaks 88k$ and reaches 90k$, this is likely to be the beginning of bitcoin's rally in the crypto market, but right now we are in the momentum of a rolling coaster, just like what some of our friends here are saying.
I agree with you. This is also a unique circle than the previous because bitcoin made a new ATH before due halving due to the lunch of ETFs. I believe that the market wouldn't be exactly with the previous circles but we would have much similarities. The current market movement is a norm but we are too eager to see bitcoin reach $100k again because a log of us missed out taking profit, and everything played out like a dream.
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I am thinking we do a double top.
The 2025 Trump actions are much like the 2021 China move to kick out miners.
So here's hoping to see 115 or 120k this fall.
I'm seeing some people confident that it will repeat 2021 and the double top
I confess it would be great
Talking to a friend about predictions some time ago (only prediction) I said that I expected BTC to reach 120k in this cycle and that would be great
He called me a pessimist for not believing in at least 150k ;D
120k would be very good
we'd all be happy if this happens. there is a reason to be optimistic about the market though since the price racing gradually. there are influencers trying to fuel the optimism in the market which i think there is a truth behind it when they say the tariff war will keep the Bitcoin adoption winning wild.
cycle might really be supercycle since the market hasn't dive in the very steep way and a double top would be the very possible. the question is if altcoin season will happen while we see the double top is forming.
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cycle might really be supercycle since the market hasn't dive in the very steep way and a double top would be the very possible. the question is if altcoin season will happen while we see the double top is forming.
For now the Tariff War is affecting the movement of bitcoin to another All Time High. And we strongly believed that after the Tariff War, bitcoin will rise again to the predictions of either 120k or 150k. But nobody knows when the Tariff War will end since China is also ready for the retaliation and America government is interested to increase the Tariff from their end and for me, this might result to World War because as it is, other countries might support America and China to increase theirs.
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Still no break out (either way) but at least there's a chance April will end in green, which would not be hard to achieve, given the opening price at the 1st April was $82,552 (per CMC), so all it takes is for the price to stay where it is.
I don't know if it's just a market sentiment or intentional manipulation, but it looks like something is holding the price down below the $85k, and I'm starting to doubt whether we'll able to go back above $100k in this cycle without some sort of catalyst (e.g. the end of the tariff wars etc).
The fact that we were cheering price briefly returning to $86k yesterday, only shows how people's expectations have lowered, which could be a bearish sign.
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For now the Tariff War is affecting the movement of bitcoin to another All Time High. And we strongly believed that after the Tariff War, bitcoin will rise again to the predictions of either 120k or 150k. But nobody knows when the Tariff War will end since China is also ready for the retaliation and America government is interested to increase the Tariff from their end and for me, this might result to World War because as it is, other countries might support America and China to increase theirs.
Even if I admit Tariff war has an impact on Bitcoin price movement, I don't think it has a big impact. If Bitcoin price can increase a bit, it is surely the time for an increase. We passed 3 months in the early of this year without a significant increase of Bitcoin (check the Bitcoin monthly return). We even have 2 months for the red market. I think it is normal if Bitcoin price is trying to increase a bit now. Regarding the response of China about the Tariff war, they must be ready for the challenge. I'm sure US government won't be brave enough to have a tariff war with China. China looks better in the economical power.
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cycle might really be supercycle since the market hasn't dive in the very steep way and a double top would be the very possible. the question is if altcoin season will happen while we see the double top is forming.
For now the Tariff War is affecting the movement of bitcoin to another All Time High. And we strongly believed that after the Tariff War, bitcoin will rise again to the predictions of either 120k or 150k. But nobody knows when the Tariff War will end since China is also ready for the retaliation and America government is interested to increase the Tariff from their end and for me, this might result to World War because as it is, other countries might support America and China to increase theirs.
The trade war was not anything we expected as we were already coming to see an end to the consolidation of the market after bitcoin dropped from $100K. Trump was a crypto lover and no one ever saw that his policy will have any negative effect in the crypto market but we can now see how his policy on tariff war with other nation has caused the market to be unpredictable. The whole market is been affected by his severe policy rules and as you’ve said, until this tariff war comes to an end, we will not understand the direction of the market again.
China and America have now locked horns and none of them is willing to compromise for each other, so this is going to be a long time thing. I am not foreseeing a world war anytime soon, hopefully the tariff war comes to an end soon and we are the market recover back, that’s a long time been anticipated for it.
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The price is pretty stagnant, but the Fear & Greed index and Bitcoin's dominance are slowly rising. I'm not sure if this is a bullish or bearish sign (or any sign at all).
I guess the rising dominance would fit in with the theory that this cycle's ATH is still ahead of us, and maybe even we would even see the altcon season that many were hoping for (myself excluded).
Currently, the price is still struggling to stay above the $85k, but maybe the Easter bunny will bring us some small rally just so we can finally see some action.
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The price is pretty stagnant, but the Fear & Greed index and Bitcoin's dominance are slowly rising. I'm not sure if this is a bullish or bearish sign (or any sign at all).
I guess the rising dominance would fit in with the theory that this cycle's ATH is still ahead of us, and maybe even we would even see the altcon season that many were hoping for (myself excluded).
Currently, the price is still struggling to stay above the $85k, but maybe the Easter bunny will bring us some small rally just so we can finally see some action.
- As of the moment, there is no doubt that we are still sideways, and I see that it will rise to 86k$ but it looks like there will be another rejection here which will be the reason for the drop to 83k$ 0 81k$, this is also the disadvantage when we are in ranging momentum.
While we are in momentum like this where it is difficult to determine where the direction of the Bitcoin price is, we always have the thought of whether there will be a breakout at resistance or at support? These are questions that we ourselves have difficulty finding the answer to.
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cycle might really be supercycle since the market hasn't dive in the very steep way and a double top would be the very possible. the question is if altcoin season will happen while we see the double top is forming.
For now the Tariff War is affecting the movement of bitcoin to another All Time High. And we strongly believed that after the Tariff War, bitcoin will rise again to the predictions of either 120k or 150k. But nobody knows when the Tariff War will end since China is also ready for the retaliation and America government is interested to increase the Tariff from their end and for me, this might result to World War because as it is, other countries might support America and China to increase theirs.
The trade war was not anything we expected as we were already coming to see an end to the consolidation of the market after bitcoin dropped from $100K. Trump was a crypto lover and no one ever saw that his policy will have any negative effect in the crypto market but we can now see how his policy on tariff war with other nation has caused the market to be unpredictable. The whole market is been affected by his severe policy rules and as you’ve said, until this tariff war comes to an end, we will not understand the direction of the market again.
China and America have now locked horns and none of them is willing to compromise for each other, so this is going to be a long time thing. I am not foreseeing a world war anytime soon, hopefully the tariff war comes to an end soon and we are the market recover back, that’s a long time been anticipated for it.
the heat is increasing while US and China is about to start a war in the west Philippine sea. This tariff war is even making worse because none of them is backing away.
I don;t think the cycle will change normally in terms of demand and supply when there is war, its the necessity of the countries to avoid the centralized swift and the dollar devaluation.
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the heat is increasing while US and China is about to start a war in the west Philippine sea. This tariff war is even making worse because none of them is backing away.
I don;t think the cycle will change normally in terms of demand and supply when there is war, its the necessity of the countries to avoid the centralized swift and the dollar devaluation.
but unfortunately this will be quite difficult if those big countries also do not stop it from happening. many politics of interest are happening, and the war between the superpowers is a reality that greatly influences the global economic situation. not only in crypto, but in general.
let's just wait for the next few months whether this condition will decline and get better because of a certain agreement between them or not. what is clear is that we must be ready for any situation that occurs, which is even beyond our will and ability to intervene, what we can do is how our attitude and personal decisions are in facing and handling all existing conditions, not only to deal with all FUD, but also the bad reality that is happening now.
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Both, S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved up by over 2.5% while Bitcoin did almost twice as much. What's comforting, both indices were in red yesterday but bitcoin went up anyways, which shows that the cyclical pattern might actually be stronger than the correlation with traditional stocks.
Right now we're trading above $91k, which is great to see after a prolonged period of stagnation, but it's a bit too soon to call it a breakaway. If it carries on moving up for another 2-3 days, or at least if the price manages to stay above the $90k, that would be a sign that the bull run in this cycle is not yet over.
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Both, S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved up by over 2.5% while Bitcoin did almost twice as much. What's comforting, both indices were in red yesterday but bitcoin went up anyways, which shows that the cyclical pattern might actually be stronger than the correlation with traditional stocks.
Right now we're trading above $91k, which is great to see after a prolonged period of stagnation, but it's a bit too soon to call it a breakaway. If it carries on moving up for another 2-3 days, or at least if the price manages to stay above the $90k, that would be a sign that the bull run in this cycle is not yet over.
It seems that tariff weeks ago is just a plan to drop the market a bit including stocks after trump said "This is the great time to buy!" All stocks including Bitcoin suddenly increase I feel like right now Bitcoin can be control by just a one word.
This is different from before we can only see price increase after block halving but right now even not block halving if there a bad or good news there a big impact on the BTC price.
All patterns and oversold signal just rejected and price keeps pushing my estimate price before consolidation is around $94k EMA indicator still telling you to keep buying.
While typing the price suddenly spike to $94k. It seems it grab all liquidity.