Could it be that the cycle is coming to an end?

[pawel7777]

There are many technical analysts out there predicting growth till the end of the year or even going into early 2026. That's justified by the timing of the previous cycle's peak from the halving date (halvings marked with yellow vertical lines). By that theory, we should still have ~9 months left of the bull market.
But why should we assume that halving dates are so significant? If, instead, we start measuring from the points the price started to climb up, it looks like the current cycle is already longer than the 2021 one.

So what are the arguments justifying the significance of the halvings dates, and why should we discard the price action related to the approval of ETFs?

This is an honest question and not a prediction.

[Zed0X]

I've read some 'objective' market observers/traders and they also claim that we're like in a new territory after we got the legal tender, the approved ETFs, and now the Government reserves. Still, they respect the halving and how it affects the mentality of the market just like in the past. We can't ignore how there will be less of 'new supplies' to meet the new demand.

[pawel7777]

I've read some 'objective' market observers/traders and they also claim that we're like in a new territory after we got the legal tender, the approved ETFs, and now the Government reserves. Still, they respect the halving and how it affects the mentality of the market just like in the past. We can't ignore how there will be less of 'new supplies' to meet the new demand.

It's also possible we could have a self-fulfilling prophecy scenario: if enough investors believe the bull market will continue till the end of the year, then they might make it happen.
But as of now, it doesn't look like the retail investors are rushing to buy in, the market has been stagnating for a while now, and we haven't seen the expected action unless we're going to repeat the double peak we have seen last time.

[pawel7777]

Not a great day today, many were hoping for some long-awaited breakout, but we're still stuck at mid-$80k and, with 3 days to go, we could have a second red month in a row, so not necessarily something one would expect to see in the bull market:



I don't think this is a reason for panic, it could still be just a longer consolidation phase, but the state of the global markets and expectations of recession are not helping.

[LogitechMouse]

Not a great day today, many were hoping for some long-awaited breakout, but we're still stuck at mid-$80k and, with 3 days to go, we could have a second red month in a row, so not necessarily something one would expect to see in the bull market:
---
I don't think this is a reason for panic, it could still be just a longer consolidation phase, but the state of the global markets and expectations of recession are not helping.

Just to say something on what you said that there's no reason to panic, I'll add some facts as well.

During the 2021 bull run, the market consolidated for 3 months (April - June) before it went up and continued the rally. If you're a firm believer of the 4-year cycle, you will believe that we are still in a bull market and if you believe that what happened in 2021 will happen this time as well, we expect that the market will start to go up by the start of May (that if it follows the 2021 bull run). Of course, it isn't the same month because that will not happen, but what I'm trying to say is that, let's wait for at least 2 months still.

If Bitcoin will end up in red candle during the months of April and May or even in June, I guess that's time for us to "Brace for Impact" because... because things aren't going the way we expected to be.

[pawel7777]

During the 2021 bull run, the market consolidated for 3 months (April - June) before it went up and continued the rally. If you're a firm believer of the 4-year cycle, you will believe that we are still in a bull market and if you believe that what happened in 2021 will happen this time as well, we expect that the market will start to go up by the start of May (that if it follows the 2021 bull run). Of course, it isn't the same month because that will not happen, but what I'm trying to say is that, let's wait for at least 2 months still.

If Bitcoin will end up in red candle during the months of April and May or even in June, I guess that's time for us to "Brace for Impact" because... because things aren't going the way we expected to be.

Not quite. The consolidation phase is defined as price moving in a relatively narrow range and precedes a breakout. The period you're referring was not really a consolidation. In mid-April 2021, we had the first top, then followed by ~50% drop, and the price started climbing back up in mid-July.

It's one thing to believe in 4-year cycle and the other to believe each cycle will play out the same as the previous one.
We already had a new ATH around the having time, so that part is already fulfilled. But believing that the price action will be a copy of the 2021 has no ground. Just like the 2021 was not a copy of the 2017 cycle.

[jeraldskie11]

During the 2021 bull run, the market consolidated for 3 months (April - June) before it went up and continued the rally. If you're a firm believer of the 4-year cycle, you will believe that we are still in a bull market and if you believe that what happened in 2021 will happen this time as well, we expect that the market will start to go up by the start of May (that if it follows the 2021 bull run). Of course, it isn't the same month because that will not happen, but what I'm trying to say is that, let's wait for at least 2 months still.

If Bitcoin will end up in red candle during the months of April and May or even in June, I guess that's time for us to "Brace for Impact" because... because things aren't going the way we expected to be.

Not quite. The consolidation phase is defined as price moving in a relatively narrow range and precedes a breakout. The period you're referring was not really a consolidation. In mid-April 2021, we had the first top, then followed by ~50% drop, and the price started climbing back up in mid-July.

It's one thing to believe in 4-year cycle and the other to believe each cycle will play out the same as the previous one.
We already had a new ATH around the having time, so that part is already fulfilled. But believing that the price action will be a copy of the 2021 has no ground. Just like the 2021 was not a copy of the 2017 cycle.

I still believe in the 4 year cycle of Bitcoin. But I do consider that there are a few changes in the current cycle compared to the past, especially when we saw in the current cycle that Bitcoin made a new ATH before the halving. It is because of people anticipating what will happen in the upcoming halving. The 4 year cycle has not been completed yet, like what happened in the previous cycles there was an alt season, that's what I'm waiting for. The price has not yet reached the invalidation area. Because of that, I believe the bull run will continue and the alt season will happen in this cycle.

[Asiska02]

I still believe in the 4 year cycle of Bitcoin. But I do consider that there are a few changes in the current cycle compared to the past, especially when we saw in the current cycle that Bitcoin made a new ATH before the halving. It is because of people anticipating what will happen in the upcoming halving. The 4 year cycle has not been completed yet, like what happened in the previous cycles there was an alt season, that's what I'm waiting for. The price has not yet reached the invalidation area. Because of that, I believe the bull run will continue and the alt season will happen in this cycle.

Most of us still believe that the bull run will happen but at same time, most of us don’t see anything yet to invalidate the bull run from happening and also have anything by the market that the bull run will still take effect despite the consolidation that has been happening over a long period of time. Many changes happened in this cycle that was not experienced in the last cycle or some of them happen even before the due time it was anticipated to have happened. Then, we saw big whale investors showing interest in bitcoin and then the political gurus of the world also showing interest and have changed and affected the market also. The bull run is not over yet until it’s over.

[philipma1957]

I am thinking we do a double top.

The 2025 Trump actions are much like the 2021 China move to kick out miners.

So here's hoping to  see 115 or 120k this fall.

[rdluffy]

I am thinking we do a double top.

The 2025 Trump actions are much like the 2021 China move to kick out miners.

So here's hoping to  see 115 or 120k this fall.

I'm seeing some people confident that it will repeat 2021 and the double top
I confess it would be great

Talking to a friend about predictions some time ago (only prediction) I said that I expected BTC to reach 120k in this cycle and that would be great
He called me a pessimist for not believing in at least 150k 

120k would be very good

[pawel7777]

The repeating of the double-top scenario would likely require either:
1 - Bitcoin decoupling from the stock market and starting becoming more lige gold, or
2 - the ongoing tariff wars turning out to be just a temporary thing that is about to come to an end soon with everything coming back to the normal.

I don't believe any of the above is realistic. The recession has been talked about even before Trump winning the election and Bitcoin simply won't pump during economically unstable times.
I'll be happy to be proven wrong though.

[philipma1957]

The repeating of the double-top scenario would likely require either:
1 - Bitcoin decoupling from the stock market and starting becoming more lige gold, or
2 - the ongoing tariff wars turning out to be just a temporary thing that is about to come to an end soon with everything coming back to the normal.

I don't believe any of the above is realistic. The recession has been talked about even before Trump winning the election and Bitcoin simply won't pump during economically unstable times.
I'll be happy to be proven wrong though.

well part of btc has decoupled from the market. large commercial miners just grow the hash which has no link to the market.


https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   892460  (30 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.0436%  (1389 / 1361.18 expected, 27.82 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   113757508810854                             
Current Difficulty:   121507793131898.1                           
Next Difficulty:   between 123750837789374 and 123995956793755
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.8460% and +2.0477%
Previous Retarget:   April 5, 2025 at 9:49 AM  (+6.8130%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 3:06 AM  (in 4d 6h 24m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 3:45 AM  (in 4d 7h 3m 29s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 17h 16m 15s and 13d 17h 55m 18s

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/difficulty-chart

the difficulty matches gold very very very closely

[Crwth]

I am scared of this because I think it will continue going down. If it does continue, I hope it can recover. If it doesn't, then it's an opportunity to buy more until the next cycle. Everything is just a cycle, and we need to be aware of what could happen.

Preparation is better, IMO. Knowing that it has a different market than the stock market now just shows how investors are doing with crypto now.

[Mr. Magkaisa]

           -      I think it's not yet, because right now the bitcoin price chart is still in consolidation or sideways at the moment, in fact, where the resistance is at 88k$ and support is 74k$, so right now the bitcoin price is playing up side down between these two prices.

So once it breaks 88k$ and reaches 90k$, this is likely to be the beginning of bitcoin's rally in the crypto market, but right now we are in the momentum of a rolling coaster, just like what some of our friends here are saying.

[Sim_card]

           -      I think it's not yet, because right now the bitcoin price chart is still in consolidation or sideways at the moment, in fact, where the resistance is at 88k$ and support is 74k$, so right now the bitcoin price is playing up side down between these two prices.

So once it breaks 88k$ and reaches 90k$, this is likely to be the beginning of bitcoin's rally in the crypto market, but right now we are in the momentum of a rolling coaster, just like what some of our friends here are saying.

I agree with you. This is also a unique circle than the previous because bitcoin made a new ATH before due halving due to the lunch of ETFs. I believe that the market wouldn't be exactly with the previous circles but we would have much similarities. The current market movement is a norm but we are too eager to see bitcoin reach $100k again because a log of us missed out taking profit, and everything played out like a dream.