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Messages - slapper

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1
Honestly, most people confuse “effort” with “edge”. Just because you study charts doesn’t mean you’re not gambling. Most day traders are under-capitalized gamblers with TradingView open. The real difference is feedback loops. Trading (if done right) offers structured feedback and risk-adjusted outcomes. Gambling rarely does

But be careful. The more you trade emotionally, the closer you’re slipping into gambling without noticing. The more you gamble with awareness, the more strategic it becomes. It’s a thin line. Both are human rituals of hope. One wears a suit. The other wears a hoodie. Doesn’t mean either of them knows anything, unless they can lose and learn at the same time

2
Lately, I’ve been seeing people toss around “Sell in May” . But has anyone really looked at the numbers? BTC averaged +7.4% in May across 2013–2024, but the median return? Only ~1%. Three of the last four years were red. Now in 2025, ETF flows are split (IBIT +$2.4B, ARK/FBTC outflows), macro’s shaky (GDP -0.3%, unemployment ticking up), and yet BTC still rides a “Greed” wave

So… are we acting on data or just reflexes?
Are these moves about the market, or about what we think others will do?

Feels like most traders today are front-running narratives, not price

3
~
@slapper what do you mean by "audit chaos"? Fiat money and gold, those cause audit chaos. How in the world would a state reliably prove that they possess what they claim to possess in terms of any asset other than Bitcoin?
“audit chaos” - it’s less about Bitcoin’s traceability, more about the clash between traditional accounting frameworks (GASB, fiduciary protocols) and self-custody, volatility disclosure, rebalancing strategy, etc. It’s not chaos in the tech, rather chaos in the legacy bureaucracy trying to keep up. Glad you joined in. This is the level of nuance we need





This can be a big move for Arizona and since it is starting its Bitcoin reserve with the seized assets then certainly there is nothing for Arizona to lose here but many things to gain. I am just wondering why the said law was vetoed by the Governor - maybe he does not believe in Bitcoin at all or very much risk-averse! Talking on suicide, maybe we should look at El Salvador and so far nobody is really complaining with their Bitcoin reserve as they are now on the profit mode if they would decide to sell (hope they won't). But anyway, this is the problem when we are dealing with the government...its own mindset is quite different from ordinary guys like you and me. And yeah if Arizona is not sure of what it is doing on Bitcoin then maybe it is not yet the best time to get into it so they should contact a buyer for OTC sale of the Bitcoin they got rather than be a participant in the marketplace but not sure of what to do or why they are doing it. Either stay or just go away, Arizona.
Totally feel you on that. Although the "seized funds = nothing to lose" frame is emotionally intuitive, politically and structurally it gets complex here. From a state’s POV, even seized property is part of public fiduciary responsibility. That means the governor's office burns regardless of where the money came from if BTC declines 70% and local press broadcasts a "Arizona gambled with criminal money" headline. It is about audit trails and optics, not about belief

Also on El Salvador: they are in profit now, yes, but it took two full years of international doubt, IMF warnings, and complete internal political control to ride it out. Try using it on a state in the U.S. with checks, balances, and public reporting obligations. Said another way, Arizona shouldn't enter halfway if it doesn't know its intention. Either create a significant crypto reserve structure or leave till the institutional brain catches up

We're not lacking tools. We’re lacking clarity of intent



Bitcoin was created with the intention of it being used a method of P2P payment, it was not intended to be used by countries (or local states within a country) to buy and hold. If it was vetoed, maybe it will set a precedent for others to follow.
Because what something "was" created for rarely defines what it becomes. Money itself became fiat under central banks, it was not born as fiat. The internet wasn’t made for memes or markets, yet here we are. Indeed, Bitcoin was designed for p2p transactions. But intention doesn’t limit evolution. The veto might set a precedent, but precedent for what? For caution? For institutional delay? For freezing a tool designed to adjust more quickly than legal standards?

The issue is not if Bitcoin fits state behaviour. It's whether states can structurally handle trustless systems at all. And in a society headed towards programmable scarcity and post-nation economic flows, do they become less relevant if they cannot? That is why the "was" matters. But what it is becoming might be even more uncomfortable for institutions to face

4
Alright, so Arizona almost became the first state to formally store Bitcoin in reserves using seized money, up to $3B. The bill passed, then got vetoed. Why? "Untested investment"

Now here is the real conversation I want to start:
Would you support or reject your state holding even 1% of its reserves in BTC, knowing it could increase long-term resilience, but also trigger audit chaos, credit risk, and public backlash if it tanks 40% in a year?

Is this the libertarian pipe dream of the younger generation or is it the creeping institutionalisation of belief-based monetary networks? Would the political elite ever view volatility the same way we do?

Should Bitcoin prove to be a failing state asset, does it harm BTC... or does it just expose the fragility of government trust?

Curious what you all think

5
I don't know what you are calling a lie, people are in it for different reasons, there are coders who are there for the code and there are investors who are there to make money, etc. This does not mean that people are telling themselves a lie, there are different use cases and people just have to choose what they want.
people enter the space for different reasons. But not all those reasons are all neutrals. Yes, some are here for code. But many so-called “builders” are just chasing tokens, VC checks, and exit liquidity

A lot of coders learn Solidity or Rust not because they care about decentralization or freedom from centralized power, but because they see a high-paying niche. And that's fine, it's human. Not everyone’s building toward the same vision. Some are building apps, some are building bags

Or worse, consciously enabling?
One of the biggest lies is that everyone who invests in cryptocurrency will be rich.

That is a lie because not everyone will be rich from cryptocurrency; there will be investors who be left poorer from investment in cryptocurrency and that may be as a result of the choices they make of what to invest in, security choices as well too.
The myth that “everyone gets rich” from crypto is just that - a myth. Markets are not utopias; they are distribution vehicles. Every advantage has a corresponding drawback - someone leaves while another enters late. Most individuals mistake access for advantage. Simply because everybody can buy does not mean everyone should, or that timing, security hygiene, or cognitive bias don’t matter. Scams, FOMO, overleveraging, those aren't bugs, they're recurring patterns in human behavior

This isn't anti-crypto. It’s anti-delusion. If crypto is going to develop, we need more accountability clarity and less sales presentations

6
At $500, I wouldn’t just buy. I’d study who’s selling and why. Because a collapse like that wouldn’t happen in isolation. It would mean structural contagion: probably tether breaks, ETF panic, or sovereign backlash. It’d be psychological more than financial. And yes, most would run. Because most aren’t in Bitcoin for its philosophy. They’re in for the multiplier. But there’s always a minority who see through short-term sentiment and ask: what survives when illusions burn?

Crypto doesn’t promise safety. It promises sovereignty. $500 BTC would be the test: not of code, but of belief. Would I still buy? Only if I still believed in the problem it was built to solve

7
Blockchain will be adopted by banks not because they "believe in it". Under pressure, selectively, and with an eye towards control rather than transformation, they will accept it the same way competition tech is absorbed by legacy empires. Adoption has nothing to do with this. Their approach is integration without compromising their central control systems

Blockchain doesn’t just offer efficiency but it also rewrites the trust layer. Traditional banking has spent centuries making itself the middleman of trust. Should blockchain replace the need for it, banks have two choices: either become fossilised customer-service brands clinging to regulatory leverage or evolve into protocol-level validators

You brought up reducing  operational expenses, which is certainly surface-level appealing. But can an institution built to gatekeep truly embrace a system designed to disintermediate? Technically, banks could implement private ledgers (they already do: JPMorgan’s Onyx, for example). That is not, however, public, decentralized sense of blockchain. It’s blockchain in name only, a way to optimize settlement and clearing while preserving hierarchy. They would make advantage of it. But don’t expect them to surrender power just because the tech exists

8
Thank you :-*

My post count including this 31

Much love,
Slapper

9
Rank: Legendary
BTC Segwit/Bech32 Wallet Address: bc1qwy2k957x0kwz5fsaecd3qgypyctamc328g4w0h

10
Cryptocurrency discussions / We need to talk about Movement Labs
« on: May 01, 2025, 08:23:37 AM »
This is a big scandal. It's a stress test on all we say we know about cryptocurrencies

Movement Labs handed 66M tokens (half the supply) to a shadow-labeled market maker (Rentech posing as Web3Port), built contracts that rewarded short-term price manipulation over long-term integrity, ignored internal legal dissent, and then watched it collapse in real time. Binance kicked the market maker off the scene. MOVE dumped. Retail ate the loss

This goes beyond a single shady deal. It’s about: 
- Smuggling insider deals through the use of fake decentralisation
- Foundations protecting for-profit greed like shields
- Structures for governance that are exclusive to pitch decks

Who messed up? Moreover, how common is it for projects of this type to be constructed?
Why did everything go wrong?
What should we construct to make this not normal?
Or is this merely the current economic model of Web3?

11
"This is not about the money."

That serves as the default shield, right? Tech, decentralization, community, freedom. But watch behaviour: 98% here for gain rather than code. We stake, farm, flip, ape, pretend to be concerned about values, then FOMO into the next memecoin

Even builders secretly want exit liquidity. Even governance is often just post-sale theatre. We are being human in a system designed to favour curiosity over structure; we are not being bad

So here’s the thing: Can this industry be revolutionary if its core behavior is identical to Wall Street, just faster, more anonymous, and with better memes?

Drop your lie. Say it loud. Make it clear. Then start to rebuild something actual

What lie are you still holding onto? Or worse, consciously enabling?

12
Presales is gambling unless you have inside access or private analytics systems that 99.9% don’t. Memecoins are highly leveraged social experiments without an no intrinsic map. Airdrop are behavioural bait systems. Tap-to-earn is literally behavioral gambling masked as “participation.” Some trading? If there’s no edge, no strategy, and you're just reacting to green candles on TikTok, you're gambling

Is that inherently bad? Not necessarily. The problem is that most are unaware they are gambling. That’s a failure, not a market one. If someone walks into a casino knowing the odds and still plays, that's informed risk. But when people enter a presale Discord and believe they are making long-term investments only because there is a roadmap JPEG and an overhyped founder? That's delusion

The crypto space is a mirror. Some come with spreadsheets, others with hopium. Both get rekt; only one learns something. The true question is then: do you recognise when you gamble and do you own it, or are you still employing "DYOR" to justify emotional bets disguised as “investments"?

13
If everyone keep their Bitcoin and no one sell, the system would fall apart on its own or worse: freeze in time. People love to talk about Bitcoin as currency, yet socially punish anyone who uses it. Bitcoin was born as a tool for decentralization, but it became a symbol of financial identity. People who say "you shouldn't have sold," are projecting psychological regret, loss aversion, and status anxiety. Being seen as someone who "HODL" is now more important than using Bitcoin to purchase pizza

If no one sells:

There is no liquidity

No price discovery

No functioning market

It's merely a piece from a museum with numbers on it. Holding everything forever is a fantasy economics can't support. Still, you are right to sense a loss in something. Store-of- value maximalism has taken over what was intended to empower regular transactions. We silently changed the narrative somewhere in the transition from p2p currency to "digital gold"

Those that sell their Bitcoin are not traitors then. They’re participants. Every transaction pushes the network ahead. And sometimes growth means spending

14
10 - Slapper

15
12 Slapper  8) 8)

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