As many Bitcoin enthusiasts know, the total supply of bitcoins has been deliberately limited to 21 million to contain inflation. This means only 21 million bitcoins will ever be minted. That makes Bitcoin a scarce commodity by design, and that’s why, like gold, many see Bitcoin as a way to hedge against the inflationary pressures fiat currencies can be subject to.
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Since the inception of the network in 2009, roughly 18 million bitcoins have been generated and the total supply of new bitcoins increases daily. As seen, halvings make this increase unwind at a gradually decreasing rate, substantially reducing the number of newly minted bitcoins per block every four years. That will continue until the plateau of 21 million bitcoins has been reached, somewhere around the year 2140.
Currently, there are roughly 54.000 new bitcoins being minted every month, which means that, at current price levels (around €6.500 per bitcoin), the amount of value added to the total Bitcoin supply is roughly €351 million per month.
A large part of these freshly minted bitcoins needs to be sold for cash on the market by small miners to cover their monthly operation costs. Now that the reward for their service is being halved, some of these miners might not be able to make ends meet, and therefore be forced to leave the market. This could decrease the selling pressure from miners in the months after the halving, pushing the price higher in the medium term.
However, let’s not forget that oil prices are at historic lows, which in turn is driving down the price of electricity – miners’ main variable cost – pretty much everywhere. Therefore, in this particular scenario, many small miners could manage to keep running operations for a while after the halving, so the effect described above could be somewhat hampered or delayed.
Furthermore, if we assume the market is efficiently pricing bitcoins (i.e. the current price discounts all available information to date), the expected outcome of the halving should be already priced in. This is a strong assumption though, as the truth is no one actually knows what’s going to happen.