Bitcoin Dominance Technical Analysis

[dragononcrypto]

Bitcoin dominance is currently at year-long resistance from a descending broadening wedge. This looks like either BTC dominance will breakout back to the resistance level of 70%, or otherwise make new lows <60% towards 50%. While the pattern has a bullish bias (once broken out), the 200 Week MA remains in a strong down-trend, indicating strong bearish pressure on dominance from the past 4 years (approximately).



On the Daily time-frame, dominance is also facing resistance today with a spike in volume to match (given the breakout to $17K BTC). There is however a golden cross of the 50 & 200 Day MA today (as circled), indicating dominance could find support from this level if rejected in the short-term.



Personally, this is the chart I'm keeping my eye closely on. Will continue to provide analysis of the direction dominance takes, that will correlate with whether altcoins will continue to correct further (against BTC price), or another altseason is on the horizon.

[dragononcrypto]

So on a Weekly scale, the long-term resistance trend-line is being broken as dominance enters overbought territory (RSI >70).



The Weekly candle still needs to close above this trend-line to confirm a break-out, but so far given the long wick at the bottom of the candle it seems likely this will be the case. Though given yesterday's candle, anything could happen by Sunday's close.



Although a very strange looking candle yesterday due to the volatility in Bitcoin's price (out of place with reality), dominance did find support from the golden cross as previously referenced as potential support.

There is however a golden cross of the 50 & 200 Day MA today (as circled), indicating dominance could find support from this level if rejected in the short-term.

[dragononcrypto]

Bitcoin dominance is currently at year-long resistance from a descending broadening wedge.

The Weekly candle of Bitcoin dominance has changed dramatically today and now starting to look like a doji reversal candle at trend-line resistance, while additionally being rejected by the volume point of control from the past 18+ months. As initially expected, the resistance trend-line is beginning to act as strong resistance, indicating a drop of Bitcoin dominance could be back on the table. Also to note the TD Sequential is on a 9 Sell signal that hasn't been seen since August 2019 at 200 Week MA ressitance.



On the Daily time-frame, dominance appears to be topping out on it's third TD Sequential Sell Signal in a row, after the previous two signals failed to reverse the upwards trajectory. Previously, these 9's did call local tops however. Dominance will need to break back below the long-term resistance trend-line to confirm the increase in altcoin dominance. Finding support along this trend-line and flipping it into support would instead indicate strength in Bitcoin dominance.

[dragononcrypto]

As initially expected, the resistance trend-line is beginning to act as strong resistance, indicating a drop of Bitcoin dominance could be back on the table. Also to note the TD Sequential is on a 9 Sell signal that hasn't been seen since August 2019 at 200 Week MA ressitance.

The Weekly candle came to a close yesterday below the long-term trend-line resistance, confirming a rejection of higher levels as well as the VPVR point of control where most volume has been traded in the past 8 months. Dominance is now threatening to break-down below the bearish downwards sloping 50 Week MA (purple line) suggesting a re-test of 60% dominance around the 21 Week MA (blue line) and 200 Week MA (golden line) seems likely.



As a reminder on the Daily chart, there was a 50 & 200 Day MA "golden cross" that occurred a few days ago, therefore it's also likely dominance will find some support from a re-test of either the 50 and/or 200 Day MA that are also within a general support zone, before moving lower. If I had to guess, we may see some continued volatility as dominance falls lower to 62.5%, before re-testing the resistance trend-line around 65%, before a re-test of 60%, as shown below.

[hair]

Is this a sign of the bitcoin bull run? demand for bitcoin is increasing. How do you predict at the end of the year?

[dragononcrypto]

Is this a sign of the bitcoin bull run? demand for bitcoin is increasing. How do you predict at the end of the year?

To me this is more of a sign of a Bitcoin consolidation period or correction to come, as opposed to higher highs - but I could be wrong here. I see the diversification into altcoins as a precursor to Bitcoin either moving sideways or correcting, and therefore traders/investors hedging into altcoins.

[hair]

I see the diversification into altcoins as a precursor to Bitcoin either moving sideways or correcting, and therefore traders/investors hedging into altcoins.

I hope this is a positive trend for bitcoin the price can stay $ 19k and even go up, we are also looking forward to altcoins can follow up the price of bitcoin

[dragononcrypto]

The Weekly candle came to a close yesterday below the long-term trend-line resistance, confirming a rejection of higher levels as well as the VPVR point of control where most volume has been traded in the past 8 months. Dominance is now threatening to break-down below the bearish downwards sloping 50 Week MA (purple line) suggesting a re-test of 60% dominance around the 21 Week MA (blue line) and 200 Week MA (golden line) seems likely.

Bitcoin dominance broke through the 50 Week MA like a knife through butter, with coins like XRP, ETH and XLM claiming back market dominance. We have now wicked down to the 21 & 200 Week MA around 60% as anticipated.

As a reminder on the Daily chart, there was a 50 & 200 Day MA "golden cross" that occurred a few days ago, therefore it's also likely dominance will find some support from a re-test of either the 50 and/or 200 Day MA that are also within a general support zone, before moving lower. If I had to guess, we may see some continued volatility as dominance falls lower to 62.5%, before re-testing the resistance trend-line around 65%, before a re-test of 60%, as shown below.

Despite expecting some support or temporary relief rally at the 50 or 200 Day MA "golden cross" level, on the Daily chart dominance is today failing to bounce back. While I'd imagine a re-test of the yellow area upto 63.5%, or break-down level around 64.6%, the selling momentum into altcoins remains strong.



Dominance has however wicked down to previous consolidation levels at 60.5%, so this wouldn't be a time to be diversifying further into altcoins, but instead potentially taking some profits before waiting to diversify further, after a re-test of overhead resistance.

[Dociko]

Bitcoin dominance was greatly reduced after the new DeFi market. Because then the investors who have invested on the DeFi project have been much more successful. So most people moved away from bitcoin to investing in DeFi projects. So the price of Bitcoin was a bit depressing. But now it has been overcome. So I think there will be more improvements in the future.

[dragononcrypto]

Despite expecting some support or temporary relief rally at the 50 or 200 Day MA "golden cross" level, on the Daily chart dominance is today failing to bounce back. While I'd imagine a re-test of the yellow area upto 63.5%, or break-down level around 64.6%, the selling momentum into altcoins remains strong.

Bitcoin dominance bounced back to 64.4%, 0.2% from breakdown level, somewhat as expected. A break back below the 200 Day MA would be bearish again:



What's known as a "death cross" occured on the 4hr chart (bearish), the 50 MA moving below the 200 MA, that dominance rallied towards and got rejected by. This is contrast to the Daily chart having a golden cross (bullish) only a few days ago, hence lack of confluence in time-frames right now.



On the Weekly time-frame, dominance remains very bearish. Despite the wick at the bottom of the current candle, indicating some buying pressure (selling altcoins pressure), this week is currently threatening to close below the 50 Week MA (64%) as well as 100 Week MA (63.5%) (approximately 1 and 2 year MAs). This would make a re-test of the 200 Week MA (approx 4 Year MA) around 60.8% of most likely outcome in this event.



Currently still selling Bitcoin for Ethereum, buying the ETH/BTC dip at a 25-35% discount quite happily. A break below 60% again would likely lead to somewhere towards 55% (the support trend-line of the broadening descending wedge pattern).



AltSeason 2021?

[dragononcrypto]

Bitcoin dominance bounced back to 64.4%, 0.2% from breakdown level, somewhat as expected. A break back below the 200 Day MA would be bearish again:

Without zooming in too far to the dominance chart that isn't experiencing the same volatility as Bitcoin or other altcoins, dominance remains trapped between the 50 & 200 Day MA, after a golden cross. It's finding support from the 200, but still being rejected by the 50. A break of the range is what's needed here:



On the Weekly chart, dominance has wicked back up to the bearish sloping 50 MA only to get rejected, while now struggling with the 100 MA:



Overall, dominance remains neutral on the Daily chart (bear flag pattern with golden cross) and remains beairsh on the Weekly, as has been the case for over a year now. This is why selling a small amount of my Bitcoin for Ethereum right continues to be a very attractive opportunity.

[dragononcrypto]

Without zooming in too far to the dominance chart that isn't experiencing the same volatility as Bitcoin or other altcoins, dominance remains trapped between the 50 & 200 Day MA, after a golden cross. It's finding support from the 200, but still being rejected by the 50. A break of the range is what's needed here:

Not much has changed with Bitcoin dominance, it's still between the 50 & 200 Day MA while now looking to get rejected by the former. There's another golden-ish cross of the 100 & 200 MAs which is the level that could act as support if dominance trends downwards again in the short-term.



Based on the Weekly time-frame dominance is also facing rejecton by the 50 MA, showing confluence with the Daily bearish signal, though the week is only a few days in. The 50 MA is now crossing below the 100 MA is bearish fashion, after bull-crossing in April 2019 at 60%.



I'm otherwise expecting further consolidation in the yellow "magnet zone", while the Daily pattern looks like a bear flag to the downside.

[Paglamon]

The dominance of Bitcoin is very good. When DeFi arrived, many people blamed DeFi's influence for the decline in Bitcoin prices.

[dragononcrypto]

With Bitcoin breaking above $20K, dominance has now reached the resistance trend-line on the Weekly chart:



This is another level I would anticipate a drop in BTC dominance, despite failing to break down from an earlier bear flag structure. Despite the bounce, dominance remains long-term bearish with the 50 Week MA crossing below the 100 MA, while the 200 MA slopes downwards stll.



A break-out from the long-term resistance trend-line would still put dominance into horizontal ressitance, therefore, unless a break of around 68% is seen into the 70s, then it seems more likely dominance will continue to drop as Bitcoin either moves higher or beings to consolidate current highs.

[dragononcrypto]

This is another level I would anticipate a drop in BTC dominance, despite failing to break down from an earlier bear flag structure. Despite the bounce, dominance remains long-term bearish with the 50 Week MA crossing below the 100 MA, while the 200 MA slopes downwards stll.

On the Weekly chart, dominance is currently breaking out of the Weekly resistance trend-line, although there are still a few days to go until the candle close. Dominance remains at horizontal resistance, so am anticipating and hoping for a rejection here. The 50 & 100 Week MA's have now officially bear crossed as circled.



On the Daily chart, dominance does look more bullish. The 50 & 200 Day MAs have crossed, however we are currently struggling with resistance. I'm expecting a retest of 62% once the 50 Day MA at 64.5% is broken to the downside, to return to the long-term Weekly wedge pattern.



The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is otherwise testing overbought (overly-dominant) conditions, while likely to face rejection similar to last month:



I'm still averaging into Ethereum as well as other altcoins, nothing has changed here: