I think Doge coin will not see much improvement if it depends only on Elon musk. We know that meme coins need a strong community support. Since Doge coin is said to be the father of meme coins, of course everyone has a different view on it. If Elon Musk wants he can take this coin further by engaging with the community as he did in 2021. It's no big deal that Doge coin will be $1. Since there are a lot of meme coins in the market, judging by them, the price of Doge coin will be able to go much higher in the upcoming bull run.
Dogecoin price may improve instantly if it is supported by Elon Musk again. But if Dogecoin always relies on Elon Musk, this coin will never have a clear future. It is impossible that Elon Musk always supports Dogecoin, he may have a plan to have own coin or stop working in crypto field. We also don't know the plan of Elon Musk, he may be no longer interested in Dogecoin. Elon Musk is unpredictable, he isn't a typical of a loyal person who can focus on 1 coin only.
What you said did not happen, even Elon with Trump, when the campaign used a dog background and the results only increased for a moment and then fell again. It seems that his popularity has started to decrease or maybe not focused at all, because he is still focused on the campaign.
I agree with your thoughts, that Elon's personality it is difficult to predict which direction he will take, but the main thing is that Elon is looking for popularity for himself, and he will do that.
I think he will not have plans to have his own coin and that is not typical of him, he prefers to take over what already exists.